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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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G

Gruco

Banned
I really hope the polls for next Tuesday are on point. There are so many explanations for MI being off that it really could have just been a perfect storm of a mess. If the next states manage to bungle things...it's going to be a long election, full of uncontrollable panic.
 
S

Skiptastic

Member
PBY said:
POLL UPDATE
2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary - Trump 43%, Rubio 20% (FOX News 3/5-3/8)
Population 813 Likely Voters - Republican
Margin of Error ±3.5 percentage points
Polling Method Live Phone

1) 2016 Florida Republican Presidential Primary
Asked of 813 likely voters - republican
Ted Cruz (R) 16%
Don't Know 6%
John Kasich (R) 10%
None of the above 1%
Marco Rubio (R) 20%
Donald Trump (R) 43%
Other 5%
Click to expand...
This is why the establishment folks should be pushing Rubio to get out. Unless he hits a home run of a debate, he won't come close to beating Trump. It at least makes Kasich's argument for staying in longer better, if he shows up "somewhat" in FL and wins OH.
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
thefro said:
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/03/10/Urban_Meyer_endorses_John_Kasich.html

5aKYm7p.jpg


Big Don in big trouble in Ohio after head bucknut endorses Kasich
Click to expand...

Wait, that's his logo? The K-Wave. I'd expect that for the slow jams radio station.
 
F

Fuchsdh

Member
I have to admit I'm surprised by Kasich's performance. I assumed he'd assume the Jon Huntsman mantle and immediately sink out the gate, but just outlasting the majority of the GOP primary field is impressive.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Fuchsdh said:
I have to admit I'm surprised by Kasich's performance. I assumed he'd assume the Jon Huntsman mantle and immediately sink out the gate, but just outlasting the majority of the GOP primary field is impressive.
Click to expand...

He hasn't done shit except for stay in? If not for OH he'd be gone.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Ohio's 'dirty little secret': blue-collar Democrats for Trump
Sitting in a steel workers' meeting at their Canton union hall, Curtis Green, the chapter's vice president, described Trump's support among a growing number of members as their "dirty little secret."

"I view him as a radical and a racist and I don't want to be affiliated with that," Green said. "But if you say what you mean, a lot of guys see that in Trump and they respect that. He doesn't dance around the issues, he takes them head on. There are a fair amount of our members who do support Donald Trump."
Click to expand...
"The labor unions, who usually support the Democrats, a lot of our members, and a lot of their families, are supporting Trump," said Keith Strobelt, a political director for the United Steelworkers local union in Canton. Strobelt does not support Trump.

Canton's local United Steelworkers union has 1,800 members - down from 6,700 at its peak 30 years ago. Its leadership has not officially endorsed a candidate, thought it has praised Democrat Senator Bernie Sanders. Some rank-and-file members, however, say they better identify with Trump’s broadsides against illegal immigration and tirades against trade with China and Mexico.

"It could be that several hundred of our members will back Trump," Strobelt said. "A lot find him refreshing. He says a lot of things they say around their dinner tables."
Click to expand...
Friendly reminder that "bluedog democrats" were always closeted republican dipshits with unionized jobs.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Wait the Republican Debate is hosted by Univision? I thought it going to be done by CNN. Yep, Trump is toast. Skin is too thin, he's going to hang himself.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Fuchsdh said:
I have to admit I'm surprised by Kasich's performance. I assumed he'd assume the Jon Huntsman mantle and immediately sink out the gate, but just outlasting the majority of the GOP primary field is impressive.
Click to expand...
He's trying an odd boss fight strategy.

- boss announces repeatedly to everyone that he won't attack an opponent unless he's attacked first
- other competitors get antsy, attack boss
- field reduces
- with the field narrowed, he beats boss, keeping hands still clean for the final boss in November (no penis attacks or "Carson dropped out" tomfoolery)

The big sad thing about this strategy? There's a timer for this stage. And it's long been running too low. He should've cast a Frenzy or Bloodlust spell on Rubio and the players much earlier in the battle.

----

Also, posted to Twitter:
0F037A70-87D8-487F-850D-4F044A5F5E55.jpg

(I think it's a shop, but still.. damn)
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
A brief look at Rubio's over the top extremism:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...so_determined_to_make_marco_rubio_happen.html

Opposed to gay adoption.

American voters finally remembered that Obama is the sane and reasonable one:

A new national Public Policy Polling survey finds Americans want President Obama to be able to appoint Antonin Scalia’s replacement on the Supreme Court- and they really don’t want any of the Republican front runners for President making the call.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Only 33% of voters trust Ted Cruz to nominate the new Supreme Court justice (57% don’t), only 31% trust Donald Trump to (62% don’t), and just 26% trust Marco Rubio to (61% don’t). Independent voters in particular have little faith in the GOP hopefuls to nominate a Supreme Court justice- 61% don’t trust Trump to, and 58% don’t trust either Cruz or Rubio to. One particularly brutal finding for Rubio on this poll is that even among Republicans there are more (45%) who don’t trust him to make that appointment than do (41%) trust him.

-Reflecting what other national polling has found, 56% of voters in the country want the vacant seat on the Supreme Court seat to be filled this year by a nominee of President Obama’s, to only 40% of voters who think the seat should remain vacant for the next year. That includes 53/41 support from independents for filling the seat this year. Voters especially think that the Senate should at least see who President Obama puts forward before making a decision- 66% think Obama’s nominee should be given a chance to only 25% who believe the Senate should just refuse to confirm someone no matter who it is. Even Republican voters, 53/37, think the Senate should be open to Obama’s nominee rather than reflexively dismissive.
Click to expand...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...op-frontrunners-making-court-appointment.html
 
T

Teggy

Member
So I am reading the #1 thing they got wrong in MI polls was youth turnout. They modeled it way too low. I wonder if they will adjust for upcoming states.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Teggy said:
So I am reading the #1 thing they got wrong in MI polls was youth turnout. They modeled it way too low. I wonder if they will adjust for upcoming states.
Click to expand...

Yes but can they count on it for future states? Is it always going to be that high when it wasn't in previous states?
 
T

Tom_Cody

Member
Fuchsdh said:
I have to admit I'm surprised by Kasich's performance. I assumed he'd assume the Jon Huntsman mantle and immediately sink out the gate, but just outlasting the majority of the GOP primary field is impressive.
Click to expand...
I mean, he's really not doing that well. He's sitting at distant 4th in the national polling (12%) and delegate count (he has won nothing). It's looking like he will probably win his home state, but he doesn't have a whole lot to brag about besides that.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Teggy said:
So I am reading the #1 thing they got wrong in MI polls was youth turnout. They modeled it way too low. I wonder if they will adjust for upcoming states.
Click to expand...

Until next Tuesday we aren't going to be able to trust any polls. Everyone is going to be watching to see if this was an aberration or a hint of something much larger.

That 7% crossover likely hurt Clinton too. Which states next Tuesday allow for registered Democrats to vote on the GOP ticket instead?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Had a dream last night where it was Election Day. I hadn't been paying attention at all and found out Clinton had picked Kaine as her VP while Trump went with some businessman I'd never heard of. I was freaking out because I hadn't made a crayon map of the election yet and wanted to get it done before the results started coming in, but they'd already announced Clinton had won Kentucky.
 
R

Rafa=FedKilla

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Had a dream last night where it was Election Day. I hadn't been paying attention at all and found out Clinton had picked Kaine as her VP while Trump went with some businessman I'd never heard of. I was freaking out because I hadn't made a crayon map of the election yet and wanted to get it done before the results started coming in, but they'd already announced Clinton had won Kentucky.
Click to expand...
Was it the grew businessman Carl Icahn?
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
kmag said:
Obama aside (he's a different case as as President basically his popularity is almost directly in lock with how the economy is doing) favorability tends to be a function of knowledge. The more the candidate is exposed to the electorate whether directly or via the lens of the oppositions framing of that candidate the lower the ratings get.

Kasich's number would plummet as soon as the spotlight goes on him, there's more than enough in his record to scare off a good proportion of independents. As it is, the other contenders in the Republican race have just ignored him.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Once tied to Bush+Planned Parenthood nonsense his numbers would decrease. I think he could beat Hillary (which can't be said of any other republican) but he'd have to overcome a lot of hurdles.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Watching Obama/Trudeau's presser and damn, Bams looks so old now. What they say about stress-aging is 100% on-point. I can only imagine how Hillary or Bernie will look, jeez. Otherwise, it's unfortunate that we only get one year of this bro-ship. They have good chemistry.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
plagiarize said:
Until next Tuesday we aren't going to be able to trust any polls. Everyone is going to be watching to see if this was an aberration or a hint of something much larger.

That 7% crossover likely hurt Clinton too. Which states next Tuesday allow for registered Democrats to vote on the GOP ticket instead?
Click to expand...

Illinois is open for both R and D. Ohio is semi-open on the D & semi-closed on the R side. Missouri is open on the D side and semi-closed on the R side. Florida is closed for both R and D and North Carolina is semi-closed for R and D.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Brinbe said:
Watching Obama/Trudeau's presser and damn, Bams looks so old now. What they say about stress-aging is 100% on-point. I can only imagine how Hillary or Bernie will look, jeez. Otherwise, it's unfortunate that we only get one year of this bro-ship. They have good chemistry.
Click to expand...

Bernie would be the oldest president ever elected by a large margin (regan was 69 and he is 74) so id imagine his age could potentially be a health factor when combined with all that stress
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Brinbe said:
Watching Obama/Trudeau's presser and damn, Bams looks so old now. What they say about stress-aging is 100% on-point. I can only imagine how Hillary or Bernie will look, jeez. Otherwise, it's unfortunate that we only get one year of this bro-ship. They have good chemistry.
Click to expand...
evolution-750.jpg
 
SlimySnake

SlimySnake

Flashless at the Golden Globes
Ok, now i am starting to freak out.

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – Nearly 46,000 Pennsylvania Democrats have switched to Republicans since the beginning of the year.

According to Penn Live, some experts attribute the mass exodus to Donald Trump.

There’s even a title for the movement. It’s called “Ditch and Switch” and calls for lifelong Democrats to abandon the party, register Republican, and help ensure Trump’s place in the general election.

Professor of Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College, Dr. G. Terry Madonna, tells the paper he has a theory behind the switch.

“With the increase in support in exit polls for Trump among working class, blue-collar Democrats, it is my belief that these are people who fall into that genre,” said Madonna.

The numbers are similar in other states as well.

The paper says in Massachusetts, as many as 20,000 Democrats have gone from blue-to-red this year with Trump cited as a primary reason. And in Ohio, as many as 1,000 blue collar workers have promised to switch parties and vote for Trump.

Numbers show that some Republicans are also switching to the Democratic party, but nowhere near the numbers that are switching to Republican.
Click to expand...

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/03/10/report-46000-pa-democrats-become-republicans-due-to-trump/

/wrists
 
K

Kusagari

Member
SlimySnake said:
Ok, now i am starting to freak out.

http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/03/10/report-46000-pa-democrats-become-republicans-due-to-trump/

/wrists
Click to expand...

I doubt it means much of anything, but it's why I think Trump is scarier than Cruz. Cruz's best case scenario is Romney's map. He appeals to absolutely nobody that didn't vote for McCain/Romney.

Trump has legitimate appeal with working class whites in places like Ohio that usually vote Democrat. It's at least a wildcard to consider unlike Cruz who is the same old.
 
R

Rubenov

Member
Kusagari said:
I doubt it means much of anything, but it's why I think Trump is scarier than Cruz. Cruz's best case scenario is Romney's map. He appeals to absolutely nobody that didn't vote for McCain/Romney.

Trump has legitimate appeal with working class whites in places like Ohio that usually vote Democrat. It's at least a wildcard to consider unlike Cruz who is the same old.
Click to expand...

Yep, I can see Trump taking Ohio and Michigan, especially if Kasich is VP. Pennsylvania a possibility as well.

Edit: I don't think Cruz would be able to win a single swing state.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Makes sense, PA is the perfect type of state to latch onto a candidate like Trump, especially in the middle of the state. Whenever I've gone back home to Allentown, I've definitely seen a good amount of his supporters.

That being said, the state usually comes down to how the surrounding Philly suburbs vote and they don't seem like they'd go for Trump at all. Whoever the Dem candidate is will need to rack up huge margins in the cities among minorities (GOTV will need be on-point) to cancel out the vote in the rural counties.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
SlimySnake said:
Ok, now i am starting to freak out.



http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/03/10/report-46000-pa-democrats-become-republicans-due-to-trump/

/wrists
Click to expand...

We already knew this, though, there was a New York Times article on it like two weeks ago.

Trump's largest constituency is in Appalachia and the Rust Belt -- white people who don't vote because they believe government has screwed them. They are frequently registered Democratic because that's what they used to vote for. To the degree that Trump is a danger, it's with these people, precisely because they're unlikely voters. Polls may not even measure them effectively.

But that doesn't mean that he can win the country. If white blue-collar laborers were enough to win the country the Democrats would never have had to reinvent themselves in the first place!
 
T

theprodigy

Member
You guys keep panicking over the potential new voters Trump could pick up without considering the types of voters he would lose, and I'm not talking about minorities here.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
theprodigy said:
You guys keep panicking over the potential new voters Trump could pick up without considering the types of voters he would lose, and I'm not talking about minorities here.
Click to expand...

He's death to the biggest group of voters in the entire country, women. He does terribly even with Republican women.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
A brief look at Rubio's over the top extremism:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...so_determined_to_make_marco_rubio_happen.html

Opposed to gay adoption.

American voters finally remembered that Obama is the sane and reasonable one:



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...op-frontrunners-making-court-appointment.html
Click to expand...

How could any true "independent" (let alone 41% of them) believe the next president should pick the Supreme Court Justice? That makes absolutely no logical sense.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
theprodigy said:
You guys keep panicking over the potential new voters Trump could pick up without considering the types of voters he would lose, and I'm not talking about minorities here.
Click to expand...

Yep, people always do this. Every action he takes to bolster support with working-class whites is draining his support with college-educated whites and minorities. He's polling 20 point deficits with educated whites against Clinton, a demographic Romney won by like 6 points. He's twice as unpopular with Hispanics than Romney. I have no idea why people are only paying attention to the white working class.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
QuiteWhittle said:
Yep, people always do this. Every action he takes to bolster support with working-class whites is draining his support with college-educated whites and minorities. He's polling 20 point deficits with educated whites against Clinton, a demographic Romney won by like 6 points. He's twice as unpopular with Hispanics than Romney. I have no idea why people are only paying attention to the white working class.
Click to expand...

Diablosing/cartoon-soldiering is a PoliGAF pastime
 
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