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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Wolf Blitzer isn't part of this tonight, right? He has been by far the worst moderator so far.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
I have such a love/hate relationship with this group. I get pissed by something someone said, unsubscribe and say I'm done here only to start posting again the next day.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I am so over this election. Bring on 2018.
For the primary? I'm well over it. #FeelTheFutility

For the general? I'm not. I'm going to savor every damn minute of the GOP's implosion; it's been a looooong time comin'.

Y'know how, when someone's been sentenced to by hanging, they kick and dance and thrash about before the body goes limp? I'll be there, clapping along as the GOP does its own little jig for us.

Scarlet1.gif


The only question is if the GOP will find their own equivalent to Bill Clinton - a charming, centrist consensus builder who can win a national election.

Not seeing it right now. People knew who Clinton was in the 80s.

Sandoval? Maybe?
One funny thing of note:
I'm doing research for my SNL project by watching every episode from 1986 onward. As of 1991, he still has yet to be mentioned.

Trump has come-up a surprising number of times. Usually negative. Phil Hartman did a pretty good Trump.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
For the primary? I'm well over it. #FeelTheFutility

For the general? I'm not. I'm going to savor every damn minute of the GOP's implosion; it's been a looooong time comin'.

Y'know how, when someone's been sentenced to by hanging, they kick and dance and thrash about before the body goes limp? I'll be there, clapping along as the GOP does its own little jig for us.

Scarlet1.gif

That's dark as shit. I love it.
 

BanGy.nz

Banned
The only question is if the GOP will find their own equivalent to Bill Clinton - a charming, centrist consensus builder who can win a national election.

Not seeing it right now. People knew who Clinton was in the 80s.

Bill gave a disaster of a endorsement speech at the 1988 convention, so the person who gives the worst speech at this years republican convention has 2020 in the bag.

#ClintEastwood2020
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I'm starting to lose interest fast, the circus is too long and Trump hasn't been as entertaining as he was weeks ago. He lost his mojo and there is no point into paying attention

I just want to be entertained

Usually at this point the primary is decided and things slow down until the conventions kick off the general election in full force, so it's to be expected to be less interesting about now.

But this time around there's still two very real paths for the republican primary to go, and both probably lead to some major damage to the GOP.

I'm tired of Trump speeches and republican debates as well, but I'll never tire of listening to Republican pundits and elites try and reconcile the terrible situation they're in right now.
 

Tom_Cody

Member
I think Drumpf only said Jeb is a mess once or twice off hand. Super Deluxe latched onto it and repeated endlessly
You are being a little too literal. In the South Carolina debate he also said the "Bush lied, people died" stuff. I was just speculating as to whether he would go as negative on Rubio in this debate as he did on Jeb in the final South Carolina debate.
 

Wilsongt

Member
For the primary? I'm well over it. #FeelTheFutility

For the general? I'm not. I'm going to savor every damn minute of the GOP's implosion; it's been a looooong time comin'.

Y'know how, when someone's been sentenced to by hanging, they kick and dance and thrash about before the body goes limp? I'll be there, clapping along as the GOP does its own little jig for us.

Scarlet1.gif



One funny thing of note:
I'm doing research for my SNL project by watching every episode from 1986 onward. As of 1991, he still has yet to be mentioned.

Trump has come-up a surprising number of times. Usually negative. Phil Hartman did a pretty good Trump.

The GOP is not impoding anymore. The crazy is being embraced.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...ns-vote-in-the-march-15-democratic-primaries/

AIA20160311003-table2.png


Alan Abramowitz ‏@AlanIAbramowitz 4h4 hours ago
So here are my predictions for Clinton vote in next Tuesday's Dem primaries: NC 65, FL 64, IL 52, OH 46, MO 45.

Alan Abramowitz ‏@AlanIAbramowitz 4h4 hours ago
Race and region model predicted Clinton to get 48% of vote in MI despite polls predicting big win for her.

Alan Abramowitz ‏@AlanIAbramowitz 4h4 hours ago
Based on race and region model, I predict Clinton's vote share in next week's Dem primaries: NC 65, FL 64, IL 52, OH 46, MO 45.

Alan Abramowitz ‏@AlanIAbramowitz 4h4 hours ago
A model based on two predictors--nonwhite share of electorate and region--explains over 90% of variance in Clinton vote in Dem primaries.

These predictions assume that the effects of race and region on the outcomes of future Democratic primaries will be the same as their effects in the 12 states used in this analysis. That assumption may or may not turn out to be correct. In addition, the estimates of the nonwhite share of the electorate clearly are subject to error. On average, the nonwhite share of the Democratic electorate increased by about six percentage points between 2008 and 2016 in the 12 states used in this analysis. However the change ranged from -1 point in Virginia to +24 points in Mississippi.
 
The only question is if the GOP will find their own equivalent to Bill Clinton - a charming, centrist consensus builder who can win a national election.

Not seeing it right now. People knew who Clinton was in the 80s.

Sandoval? Maybe?

Sandoval's pro-choice, so he's dead in the water. And you can't make a Bush Sr. like conversion to pro-life belief, unless you're Trump.
 
The 2020 options to stop Cruz...

Ben Sasse: Marco Rubio without the illusion of being electable.
Scott Walker: The perfect compromise candidate other than the fact that he's dumb as shit, obviously a crook, and openly despises the working class.
Tom Cotton: Marco Rubio except ten times more embarrassing and more openly hateful of the poor.
Nikki Haley: The only hope, but she's a woman who was against the Confederate Flag.

Trump 2016, Cruz 2020 leaves the Republican Party where?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The 2020 options to stop Cruz...

Ben Sasse: Marco Rubio without the illusion of being electable.
Scott Walker: The perfect compromise candidate other than the fact that he's dumb as shit, obviously a crook, and openly despises the working class.
Tom Cotton: Marco Rubio except ten times more embarrassing and more openly hateful of the poor.
Nikki Haley: The only hope, but she's a woman who was against the Confederate Flag.

Trump 2016, Cruz 2020 leaves the Republican Party where?

President Gillibrand in 2024

So is Sanders basically abandoning the South the biggest blunder of the 2016 primary season?

Yep. He basically made sure he had no shot at winning by allowing those margins to exist.
 

Tarkus

Member
Mike Lee: "I speak with Marco on a regular basis. If he were to ask me, I'd suggest to him to get behind Ted Cruz." i.e., get the fuck out Marco
 
What Pennsylvania thing are we freaking about?
Tim Kaine certainly has impeccable credentials. The problem I would have with him as a pick is that he has the identical profile to Hillary -- old, white, insider, exemplary political history. I don't see what the ticket gets from picking Kaine.

Kaine in the cabinet, by contrast, looks like a gimme to me.

Reading this just made me Diablos in a whole new direction. Imagine what happens if Sanders has a heart attack and dies on March 14th. We're all screwed then.
Locks up Virginia if it wasn't almost certain already.

Oh and he could actually be President. Which should theoretically be the most important factor.

Those CFP figures seem about where it will probably land. Her wins if any in the rust belt will be slight because white people but her Florida strength should expand the delegate count.
 
I wouldn't worry about Tom Cotton. If not for the disaster of 2014 I don't believe he would have beaten Pryor. He was shaky on the trail for quite awhile until ebola and ISIS took over iirc. He's not a likable person unless you agree with him, I don't buy the idea of him running or winning.

He has quite a long, lucrative senate career ahead of himself. Defense contractors love him.
 
Saw that there is going to be yet another town hall this weekend with the dems, at OSU on CNN.

This week...man. 2 Town halls and 2 debates?
 

Ophelion

Member
So is Sanders basically abandoning the South the biggest blunder of the 2016 primary season?

Maybe. Did he ever have a chance in the South to begin with?

By that, I kind of indirectly mean did he ever have a legitimate chance, period?

And I don't mean in some idealized Scandinavian utopia, I mean here in the United States, in the current environment we have today, across the entire country, did Sanders ever have a chance?
 

mo60

Member
What Pennsylvania thing are we freaking about?
Locks up Virginia if it wasn't almost certain already.

Oh and he could actually be President. Which should theoretically be the most important factor.

Those CFP figures seem about where it will probably land. Her wins if any in the rust belt will be slight because white people but her Florida strength should expand the delegate count.

It's this.
http://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2016/03/10/report-46000-pa-democrats-become-republicans-due-to-trump/

46000 democrats according to a report from CBS switched to the republicans because of donald trump.
 
The 2020 options to stop Cruz...

Ben Sasse: Marco Rubio without the illusion of being electable.
Scott Walker: The perfect compromise candidate other than the fact that he's dumb as shit, obviously a crook, and openly despises the working class.
Tom Cotton: Marco Rubio except ten times more embarrassing and more openly hateful of the poor.
Nikki Haley: The only hope, but she's a woman who was against the Confederate Flag.

Trump 2016, Cruz 2020 leaves the Republican Party where?

You really think after all of this shit this primary season that Republican voters would even be interested in a right wing authoritarian hack like Cotton? A lot of the attacks on Rubio could be spun around to criticize Cotton. I mean for fucks sake his wife and kid were pretty much just check marks off the "shit I need to do before running for Senate in Arkansas" list.

Walker is done because this cycle showed he really was dumb as a stump and only was really able to do something because the much more talented politicians in Wisconsin basically created single party rule for him in the legislature.

No one gives a shit about Sasse and Haley.
 

Wilsongt

Member
What Pennsylvania thing are we freaking about?
Locks up Virginia if it wasn't almost certain already.

Oh and he could actually be President. Which should theoretically be the most important factor.

Those CFP figures seem about where it will probably land. Her wins if any in the rust belt will be slight because white people but her Florida strength should expand the delegate count.

40k democrats are now Republicans because TrumpDump.
 
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