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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
- Status
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Trump win guaranteed? That's a TON of early voting.
Macho Madness
Member
Kasich probably going to make this case tonight: https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/708041192559263744
He's been talking about it in his town halls more and more.
He's been talking about it in his town halls more and more.
Macho Madness
Member
I just went searching for new polls and I ended up on Breitbart and InfoWars. NO POLLS OKAY.
You don't do poll talk around Big Don.
The Lamonster
Member
And he would make a very good point. Kasich has been the only GOP candidate this cycle who I feel could beat Clinton in the GE. And his policies are terrifying.
Macho Madness
Member
The problem with Kasich's plan is... You have to win outside of Ohio too.
Basileus777
Member
You think they'd both die simultaneously? Brown would pick a new VP.
Having a quite popular senator in a swing state is one good reason. We need legislature victories, last thing I want is a VP or cabinet posts in states that either have republican governor or have 'swing' in the voters that the election to fill a missing senate seat causes it to tip further right. This is one of the things I felt was wrong as far as Obama was concerned, he picked a lot of his cabinent staff among people he worked with in the senate as well as governors in swing or even republican dominant states, leaving them open to be picked up because of a weak or surprised field due to the quickness they retired from the position to take that cabinet position. Retiring, small scale (big city mayors) or other advisers from more professional fields is my pick for Hilary's cabinet and running mates.
I laughed for a couple minutes straight.
There has to be a comedy movie concept in there, where they sneak a college team onto the field to win games.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Was America as obsessed with polls in 2008 and 2012 as we are now?
Coriolanus
Banned
Yes.
Which is why we still have the UNSKEW THE POLLS meme, and all the hubbub about romney believing the shitty polls bubble.
naw man
And_Gignac
Member
28% by CNN. Other EP had him at 30%. I made a typo, sorry for the commotion.
He still won 49% of under 45 blacks, though.
And wow that Fidel non-story gained like 0 traction. Talent ALWAYS wins.
User 463088
Banned
So, I made calls for Queen today. Got a lot of people in Florida who had voted early for her. Mostly older, obviously. Lots of voice mails.
I made a few for Trump. One lovely man, and I shit you not, let me know that he was voting for Trump so we could put the white back in White House. He let me know he didn't have any problems with "colored folk" but thought that the face of America should represent the people. He also thought I was a girl (most people do on the phone). He said he was happy to see a "bright young thing" working to take back her country. He told me he would pray for me. I burned my phone when I got done.
I can't do that again.
I made a few for Trump. One lovely man, and I shit you not, let me know that he was voting for Trump so we could put the white back in White House. He let me know he didn't have any problems with "colored folk" but thought that the face of America should represent the people. He also thought I was a girl (most people do on the phone). He said he was happy to see a "bright young thing" working to take back her country. He told me he would pray for me. I burned my phone when I got done.
I can't do that again.
Coriolanus
Banned
dude, nate became a thing simply because his polls were more pollsy than any other polls. and he did so by polling polls. in the past. with math.
dude complains about getting old. (and at 29 no less, damn your eyes)
a Southern Gentleman calls him a bright young thing.
complains.
ok.
BIG ADAM!!!
you should be delivering OH for Queen and not just FL. We are counting on you, Ebay and Manky. Cheebo let us down.
Is that Martin's twin brother?
BoboBrazil
Member
Come on, Big Poppa Trump needs to get to the general.
Could be, he doesn't exactly have the most sterling record of dealing with police corruption either, but at least he didn't directly spike two cases of blatant police murder like McGinty.
gutter_trash
Banned
Obama had a good press conference today, exposed that Trump is not alone in his ideas but just more inflammatory.
Stating that Cruz and Rubio's anti-immigration stances contradict their life story of being both products of immigration
Stating that Cruz and Rubio's anti-immigration stances contradict their life story of being both products of immigration
RustyNails
Member
Trump: "john, how many states have you won? zero. Sad!"
That's the story of the modern minority GOP. Cruz, Haley, Rubio, Jindal... All children of first gen immigrants, yet fucking hate immigrants. I guess it helps Haley and Cruz that they look more white than Cuban/Indian. Unlike Jindal and Rubio who look their ethnicity.
BoboBrazil
Member
So after Tuesday Kasich and Rubio could potentially drop out. Exciting stuff if it becomes a 2 man race.
Those Trump threads. At this point I definitely agree with the notion that there are certainly quite a few closet racists here. If they aren't, well, they're incredibly dull minded and oblivious.
Wow, that's crazy.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If Kasich wins Ohio (which I'm fairly positive he will), I can't see him dropping out.
User 463088
Banned
I'm to your south, but I get all my news from Cleveland stations. I've not seen a single O'Malley ad. Saw a few McGinty ones.
"No, no. I'm gonna win my home state"
BoboBrazil
Member
I'm hoping Trump wins. Maybe I should phone bank for him in Ohio.
I'm to your south, but I get all my news from Cleveland stations. I've not seen a single O'Malley ad. Saw a few McGinty ones.
As it turns out, no Republicans or independents are trying for the seat, so the primary is the only shot at booting McGinty out. :/
RustyNails
Member
Diablos (and everyone else who doubted Trump), get ready for Trump Shame Avatar. I know he's not the nominee yet, but here's my contribution if you like to ride the train:
Also, I will add Trump Hair to your avatar if you like that instead:
Also, I will add Trump Hair to your avatar if you like that instead:
Coriolanus
Banned
cropping this would b better
tbh with Poppa we've an embarrassment of riches. A different avatar for each and every sad Rubio backer.
tbh with Poppa we've an embarrassment of riches. A different avatar for each and every sad Rubio backer.
Atomic Playboy
Member
The most common demographic in America is white women. By his own logic, shouldn't he be voting for Hillary?
Racists are weird.
User 463088
Banned
Working off of those numbers, and giving Hillary the worst possible vote share in each state:
Hillary 386
Bernie 305
That would put her pledged delegate lead at 298.
Pledged
Hillary 1152
Bernie 854
With Supers
Hillary 1624
Bernie 877
Hillary would need 38% of all remaining delegates to secure the nomination.
Bernie would need 75% of all remaining delegates to secure the nomination.
RustyNails
Member
Yea Rubot backers absolutely MUST wear a trump avatar. No exceptions.
HNNNNNNNNNNNNNGHHH.
Coriolanus
Banned
A filthy methodist? Psh. Evangelical or bust.
Bro, I am so fucking excited for that Trump avatar. If he's the nom, than FUCK YEAH.
I looked at this model and I thought it was interesting. But does it hold for both open and closed primaries?
Basileus777
Member
Polls are closed in the Virgin Islands. How excited are we?
6 delegates are at stake, but no one but Cruz can take more than 3 because Trump and Rubio didn't have enough eligible delegate candidates. Kasich actually can't win any delegates.
6 delegates are at stake, but no one but Cruz can take more than 3 because Trump and Rubio didn't have enough eligible delegate candidates. Kasich actually can't win any delegates.
I'm wigging out man
User 463088
Banned
From what I can tell, no. It simply used how groups voted in each state and then applies those to states in the region. Ohio and Illinois, for example, were modeled after Michigan. Florida and NC modeled after more southern states.
BoboBrazil
Member
I hope Trump hits Cruz for his Bush connection tonight http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/10/ted-cruz-a-bush-by-another-name/
I mean, this model is kind of a joke. It's a straight regression analysis with 12 data points and two elements, one of which is just a binary switch. Saying "look how well it explains Michigan" is kind of ridiculous since they didn't show us the model until AFTER Michigan. So yeah, your curve fit now curve fits Michigan. No surprise there!
This is more or less the exact example Nate Silver used in the old days to talk about how bad overfit models are and how easy they are to make.
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