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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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M

Macho Madness

Member
Yeah, that's true. Donors would have dried up after Super Tuesday, and especially after he lost OH, MO, and IL in a normal campaign. I wonder if the rise of things like GoFundMe have helped shape people's comfort in crowdsourcing a campaign? Not saying it's responsible but it's an interesting thought.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Melkr_ said:
The fact remains that six months ago very few expected Sanders to do as well as he doing and since this is a two heads race, it proportionally undermines the performance of Clinton, who is not pulling ahead as much as Dukakis, Bill or Kerry did.
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I don't mind too much that this is a close race. If it weren't, you'd have the media proclaiming this a "coronation" and ignoring Hillary completely. And, Gore and Kerry lost despite sewing up the primary early, whereas the 08 race was hard-fought and ultimately a Dem win. As long as the party unifies at the end, and (should Hillary be the nominee) Sanders supporters not "vote for Nader", it's all good.

Also, still expecting a blowout in Hawaii.
 
T

tomtom94

Member
CCS said:
Pretty much this. To be honest, I think the main thing the Sanders campaign demonstrates is not a movement in the political landscape, but rather the fact that the new communication, campaigning, and fundraising opportunities allowed for by the Internet allow for a non-establishment candidate to rise very quickly and run a major campaign. See also Corbyn in the UK, who like Sanders barely anyone would have recognised two years ago.
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To be honest with Corbyn I'm starting to wonder if there was an element of the mainstream media helping him a la Trump (see also: the way in which the other three candidates stole votes off each other and sucked the oxygen away from each other) but now we might be getting really off topic.
 
T

titiklabingapat

Member
Impressive win by Sanders in WA. Great job, Bern!

I really, really hope this new found funding apparatus is put to good use by Democrats and progressives moving forward, especially in midterm and local elections.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Well, it's clear I was totally wrong about Washington. King County keeps getting closer as the day goes on but it's not likely to get to 20 points statewide at this rate. 35-40 looks right.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
12519095_253048905036512_368030695_n.jpg


Counting votes in a cracker box.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
So, the effect of the calendar is also in play.

In 2000, it looks like about 40% of the pledged delegates were awarded by March 7th Super Tuesday, including California, New York and Ohio.

In 2004, ~60% of the delegates were awarded, again with CA, NY and OH by March 2nd.

Bradley and Dean, even with more funding, should have still seen the writing clearly on the wall.

In 2008, Clinton and Obama basically fought to a tie after Super Tuesday. Despite that 60% of delegates were awarded there was still a contest ahead.

This primary by "Super" Tuesday only a quarter of delegates were awarded. Still haven't reached 60% of delegates. New York is still weeks away. California isn't for months.

Thus, allowing the illusion that the race isn't over.

Thanks, Debbie.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
shinra-bansho said:
So, the effect of the calendar is also in play.

In 2000, it looks like about 40% of the pledged delegates were awarded by March 7th Super Tuesday, including California, New York and Ohio.

In 2004, ~60% of the delegates were awarded, again with CA, NY and OH by March 2nd.

Bradley and Dean, even with more funding, should have still seen the writing clearly on the wall.

In 2008, Clinton and Obama basically fought to a tie after Super Tuesday. Despite that 60% of delegates were awarded there was still a contest ahead.

This primary by "Super" Tuesday only a quarter of delegates were awarded. Still haven't reached 60% of delegates. New York is still weeks away. California isn't for months.

Thanks, Debbie.
Click to expand...

I've been saying it's possible they did this to extend the primary, instead of shorten it on purpose.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
So, the effect of the calendar is also in play.

In 2000, it looks like about 40% of the pledged delegates were awarded by March 7th Super Tuesday, including California, New York and Ohio.

In 2004, ~60% of the delegates were awarded, again with CA, NY and OH by March 2nd.

Bradley and Dean, even with more funding, should have still seen the writing clearly on the wall.

In 2008, Clinton and Obama basically fought to a tie after Super Tuesday. Despite that 60% of delegates were awarded there was still a contest ahead.

This primary by "Super" Tuesday only a quarter of delegates were awarded. Still haven't reached 60% of delegates. New York is still weeks away. California isn't for months.

Thanks, Debbie.
Click to expand...

Maybe the party thinks that long primaries are actually a good thing? It would explain a lot of their decisions.

edit: macho'd
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Wafflecakes said:
I am not sure what Bernie is doing can be replicated on a local scale.
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Mainly because his supporters seem to have a severe lack of understanding about the importance of downballot elections and Court appointments and think the president can just wave their wand and turn everything into a liberal socialist utopia.

A friend of mine who supports Bernie is pissed at Obama for not doing anything to reverse Citizens United. Yes because he's had so many opportunities. He's already had one of the supportive Justices assassinated, what more can he do!?
 
I

Iolo

Member
Aaron Strife said:
A friend of mine who supports Bernie is pissed at Obama for not doing anything to reverse Citizens United. Yes because he's had so many opportunities. He's already had one of the supportive Justices assassinated, what more can he do!?
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Man your friend is going to turn on President Sanders so fast.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Mainly because his supporters seem to have a severe lack of understanding about the importance of downballot elections and Court appointments and think the president can just wave their wand and turn everything into a liberal socialist utopia.

A friend of mine who supports Bernie is pissed at Obama for not doing anything to reverse Citizens United. Yes because he's had so many opportunities. He's already had one of the supportive Justices assassinated, what more can he do!?
Click to expand...

In an extremely rare moment, Obama called out the Supreme Court in his State of the Union speech specifically because of Citizens United. I remember that and couldn't believe he did it. Right to their faces.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
looked at the calendar. Like the Republicans we are heading into closed primaries.

Everything from NY on the 19th of April to PR on the 4th of June with IN as the lone exception on the 3rd of May is closed or semi-closed

Hillary should do well in all of them except for OR, WV, & KY. The latter two are going to be like the south+OK with a lot of dixies voting for Bernie as an anti Hillary vote or those other guys on the ballot.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
NeoXChaos said:
looked at the calendar. Like the Republicans we are heading into closed primaries.

Everything from NY on the 19th of April to PR on the 4th of June with IN as the lone exception on the 3rd of May is closed or semi-closed
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IN is open for any registered voter. Registration closes on April 2nd though.

Also, the margins in WA are going down as more comes in. Sitting at 72/28 right now.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Aaron Strife said:
Mainly because his supporters seem to have a severe lack of understanding about the importance of downballot elections and Court appointments and think the president can just wave their wand and turn everything into a liberal socialist utopia.

A friend of mine who supports Bernie is pissed at Obama for not doing anything to reverse Citizens United. Yes because he's had so many opportunities. He's already had one of the supportive Justices assassinated, what more can he do!?
Click to expand...

Please god, be an out-liar.

shinra-bansho said:
Maybe Debbie is dumb. That would also explain a lot.
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Bernie should be thanking her from the looks of it. If NY and Cali had both voted on Super Tuesday that really would have been the end of it.
 
T

teiresias

Member
I think the length of the primary is a bit of wash this cycle. If it were any other year maybe it would undoubtedly be a bad thing, but given the shit-show going on in the GOP process and Trump frequently sucking the air out of the available media screen time, having an interesting fight (or at least one that can be portrayed that way) on the Dem side at least keeps it in the press.

I suppose one could argue that if it were lopsided enough that the media couldn't run with Sanders as even viable anymore that Hillary would get airtime just bashing Trump, but I'm not really sure that would be the case given the in-fighting in the GOP. There's too much drama there for the press to bother with GE-style politicking at this point. So I think you'd possibly just have dead air for Dem coverage without the horse-race narrative.
 
A

AnotherNils

Member
The salt in this place when Bernie is mathematically eliminated is going to monstrous. I expect multiple meltdowns and calls for a third party run. I should probably stock up on popcorn.
 
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shinra-bansho

Member
Meh. Hawaii is ultimately irrelevant. The only contests that really matter now are CA, PA, NY, NJ and MD basically.

But I guess ohana means no one gets left behind.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
AnotherNils said:
The salt in this place when Bernie is mathematically eliminated is going to monstrous. I expect multiple meltdowns and calls for a third party run. I should probably stock up on popcorn.
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Where is "this place"? I think most people have accepted that Bernie's chances to get the nomination are razor thin. I have, anyway. It's still nice to see him rack up some big wins today, though. I really hope it sends a message to the party about what can be a viable platform going forward and the direction the party should move toward.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
Where is "this place"? I think most people have accepted that Bernie's chances to get the nomination are razor thin. I have, anyway. It's still nice to see him rack up some big wins today, though. I really hope it sends a message to the party about what can be a viable platform going forward and the direction the party should move toward.
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Absolutely. This is where I'm at, and why I'm not mad he's staying in.
 
R

royalan

Member
teiresias said:
I think the length of the primary is a bit of wash this cycle. If it were any other year maybe it would undoubtedly be a bad thing, but given the shit-show going on in the GOP process and Trump frequently sucking the air out of the available media screen time, having an interesting fight (or at least one that can be portrayed that way) on the Dem side at least keeps it in the press.

I suppose one could argue that if it were lopsided enough that the media couldn't run with Sanders as even viable anymore that Hillary would get airtime just bashing Trump, but I'm not really sure that would be the case given the in-fighting in the GOP. There's too much drama there for the press to bother with GE-style politicking at this point. So I think you'd possibly just have dead air for Dem coverage without the horse-race narrative.
Click to expand...

I also imagine that stretching the primary out requires candidates to put more attention into individual states, which helps lay the organizational groundwork for the general.
 
M

Maengun1

Member
Where is "this place"? I think most people have accepted that Bernie's chances to get the nomination are razor thin. I have, anyway. It's still nice to see him rack up some big wins today, though. I really hope it sends a message to the party about what can be a viable platform going forward and the direction the party should move toward.
Click to expand...

Yeah even in the absolute most petty moments, this forum is where I've found the most reasonable Bernie v Hillary discussions by far anywhere online. Reddit, facebook, twitter, etc. have all bee absolute dumpster fires compared to here.

Anyway, as a Hill supporter, congrats to Bernie in Washington. Expected or no, the margin is super impressive. I'm interested to see where Hawaii lands, but mostly I just wanted today to be over with :D
 
M

mo60

Member
I thought it would be a bit closer of a race in Washington and Alaska, but it's good to hear bernie won both states. I wonder who will win Hawaii since the results have not reported for that state yet.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Dan PfeifferVerified account
‏@danpfeiffer
If Hillary Clinton gets elected President, my guess is that it will be end of Democratic Caucus contests (IA is a possible exception)

Matthew J. Pagano
‏@mjp4liberty Matthew J. Pagano Retweeted Alex Burns
Most states that have caucuses have them because of individual state statute(like Minnesota). Hard to adjust.

Alex Burns ‏@alexburnsNYT 2h2 hours ago
Alex Burns Retweeted Matthew J. Pagano
When the national party changes delegate rules, the states change to avoid irrelevance
 
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