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PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida

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NeoXChaos

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CdN1s9xWAAA9utW.jpg
 
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User 463088

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NeoXChaos said:
CdN1s9xWAAA9utW.jpg
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This doesn't make any sense...I mean, I guess it does if you want to arbitrarily decide that June is the magical cutoff by which no one should go further. There are 1239 after 15th up until June.

Using this logic, Bernie needs 146% of all delegates to clinch the nomination before June.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
adam387 said:
Working off of those numbers, and giving Hillary the worst possible vote share in each state:

Hillary 386
Sernie Banders 305

That would put her pledged delegate lead at 298.

Pledged

Hillary 1152
Sernie Banders 854

With Supers
Hillary 1624
Sernie Banders 877

Hillary would need 38% of all remaining delegates to secure the nomination.
Sernie Banders would need 75% of all remaining delegates to secure the nomination.
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Just for fun, I went and looked back at 2008 to frame how much closer it was.

Hillary needed to get 75% of remaining delegates to win as of May 7, 2008.

Only 6 states had not voted at that point.

After next week, technically there are 34 contests left this year in the Democratic primary.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
adam387 said:
This doesn't make any sense...I mean, I guess it does if you want to arbitrarily decide that June is the magical cutoff by which no one should go further. There are 1306 after 15th up until June.

Using this logic, Bernie needs 91% of all delegates to clinch the nomination before June.
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Holmes said:
Getting 58% of remaining delegates and 200 more superdelegates would get her over 3,000 total delegates...
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So clinching the nomination by May is doable for Clinton, but not if Sanders starts pulling off more surprises like his Michigan victory on Tuesday. If Clinton and Sanders split the remaining 1,930 pledged delegates 50-50, as well as the undecided superdelegates, Clinton won't hit 2,383 until June.
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it implies she does like MI. If she does better than that like on ST she can end it by May. Don't forget its proportional so Bernie will pick up some too.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Holmes said:
Getting 58% of remaining delegates and 200 more superdelegates would get her over 3,000 total delegates...
Click to expand...

Note they said "before June".

edit: It doesn't make mathematical sense either way, but no one cares about that when it comes to tax plans either
 
A

Allard

Member
Y2Kev said:
How many super delegates are there? I thought she has basically them all.
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Think there is a large swath that haven't picked a candidate and are waiting for either the convention or deciding vote to clinch a win after it becomes clear mathematically who will be the victor to close the primary season before the convention. Think there are little over 200 uncommitted. Also if it is before the end of June there are several huge states in June with large delegate counts to be pledged. Notably California and New Jersey. To that extent that information I think could be correct, but its like saying a team in baseball that has a 20 game lead needs to win 60% of the rest of its games to clinch the divsion 1 month before end, clinching usually happens a lot closer but that doesn't mean its a statistical dead heat.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
adam387 said:
So, I made calls for Queen today. Got a lot of people in Florida who had voted early for her. Mostly older, obviously. Lots of voice mails.

I made a few for Trump. One lovely man, and I shit you not, let me know that he was voting for Trump so we could put the white back in White House. He let me know he didn't have any problems with "colored folk" but thought that the face of America should represent the people. He also thought I was a girl (most people do on the phone). He said he was happy to see a "bright young thing" working to take back her country. He told me he would pray for me. I burned my phone when I got done.

I can't do that again.
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These older folk just ain't ready for your fabulous voice!
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
The last primary is June 7 excluding Dc. That's basically when Obama eliminated Clinton. Why does everyone kvetch over her forcing wacky Bernie out early? Just ignore him IMO. Minimize losses in the caucus states and just keep chugging along.
 
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NeoXChaos

Member
Y2Kev said:
The last primary is June 7 excluding Dc. That's basically when Obama eliminated Clinton. Why does everyone kvetch over her forcing wacky Bernie out early? Just ignore him IMO. Minimize losses in the caucus states and just keep chugging along.
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that's what they are going to do.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Man who punched Trump protester: 'Next time we see him, we might have to kill him'

A man charged with assaulting a protester at a Donald Trump rally Wednesday night says the protester deserved it.

“Yes, he deserved it. The next time we see him, we might have to kill him," said John McGraw, 78, in an interview with "Inside Edition" on Wednesday night.

He added: "We don’t know who he is. He might be with a terrorist organization.”

Asked if he enjoyed the rally in Fayetteville, North Carolina, McGraw told the show, “You bet I liked it. Clocking the hell out of that big mouth."

As far as why he punched protester Rakeem Moore as police escorted him from the premises, as shown in a video posted to YouTube, McGraw said, “We don’t know who he is, but we know he’s not acting like an American."
Click to expand...
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I don't understand Hillary running this ad. It's the one where she's talking about how high drug companies jack up prices. It's just....it's not a good ad.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
Sea Manky said:
I know we have other Ohio gaffers here, but is anyone else actually in Cuyahoga county? Need to make sure you're voting for Michael O'Malley for Prosecutor if so. Fuck Tim McGinty.
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god damn it why am I not still registered up there, that race is so much more consequential than anything in Columbus
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
What's the realistic date Hillary could clinch the nomination (including super delegates)?

Have you tried to determine the range for this, Adam?


(I haven't been around, death in the family and of course it seems my personal laptop died).
 
H

Holmes

Member
Black Mamba said:
What's the realistic date Hillary could clinch the nomination (including super delegates)?

Have you tried to determine the range for this, Adam?


(I haven't been around, death in the family and of course it seems my personal laptop died).
Click to expand...
Sometime in May. Hopefully after a primary or caucus she loses, like West Virginia.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Black Mamba said:
What's the realistic date Hillary could clinch the nomination (including super delegates)?

Have you tried to determine the range for this, Adam?


(I haven't been around, death in the family and of course it seems my personal laptop died).
Click to expand...

Assuming a 60/40 split for Bernie in all caucus states going forward. and a decent Hillary showing in New York....

I would argue that she'd be around 233 delegates short of the nomination at the end of April. That assumes she can't get any more supers on her side between now and then. If she over performs on the 15th, then maybe a bit earlier, but probably not until California votes. Around June 7th she'd be about 100 delegates short. (With no more supers). So, as long as she was viable in California....she'd win.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Bel Marduk said:
After such a nasty primary battle? Have these people no self respect?

I guess it could be to screw Ted Cruz for lying about him dropping out before Iowa
Click to expand...

To be fair, Trump has always been fairly civil to Dr. Carson. Except for the whole stabbing thing. I mean, in the grand scheme of things, that's positively presidential from Trump.
 
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