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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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ampere

Member
Yes. Citizens United had nothing to do with how a candidate finances his or her campaign. It dealt with independent expenditures by corporations--i.e., expenditures on political speech relating to a candidate that are not coordinated with a candidate. (Of course, my answer assumes that whatever is done merely overturns Citizens United, and doesn't go further by, for example, authorizing Congress to make any and all campaign-finance laws it wants to, notwithstanding other provisions of the Constitution.)

NYCmetsfan is right that what matters here is Buckley v. Valeo, not Davis. In Davis, the Court considered whether it was constitutional for the government to increase the contribution limits for contributions to a candidate running against a self-funded candidate who spent above $350,000 of his own funds on his campaign. If you read Davis, you'll note that the Court even cites Buckley for the proposition that a "candidate … has a First Amendment right to engage in the discussion of public issues and vigorously and tirelessly to advocate his own election." In Davis, the Court simply recognized that the one-sided contribution-limits increase imposed an (unjustified) substantial burden on the right recognized in Buckley, and was therefore invalid.

In summary, overturning Citizens United would not, on its own, affect whether a candidate can self-finance his or her campaign. Those are two completely separate issues.

Thanks for the reply. Doesn't look like any limitations on personal campaign spending are in our near future without new campaign finance legislation then.

Even so I could see that being a complicated issue. "What do you mean I can't use my own money to run ads about myself on TV?"
 

Emarv

Member
I mean not really? She has a consistent lead nationally as well as in most swing states. Noise is normal.

The one thing that's weird is 538 is using a Trump by 10 poll from March in their NC models.

Yeah, but how heavily are the weighing it? I have to imagine the model scales appropriately based on pollster, consistency of the poll and recency of the poll.
 

ampere

Member
Another police shooting rampage. This is a super worrying trend, I hope the Dallas shooting doesn't get too many more imitators.

Unfortunately they always do. Some individuals will watch these shootings and think "that's exactly what I've been thinking, if they can do it so can I". Like the numerous people who wanted to "do a Columbine" after that massacre. It's really weird psychology, it's like the act is a coded message to people with similar mindsets giving them permission to act.

Same way suicides go up when there's a publicized suicide.

I have no idea how we could prevent this behavior as a society. Obviously making guns harder to obtain could help, but people will always mimic things they see and it's not like we can stop mentioning tragedies in the news altogether.
 

Grief.exe

Member
If we get more and more dead cops at the hands of assault rifles (even though that's a stupid term), I could easily see a major push to ban them in a 1990's style ban.

They can't even get bills through the senate/house that would likely have a larger effect on our gun death totals such as standardized and more stringent background checks.

More polarizing issues like rifle bans don't stand a chance, and will cost Democrats seats as well.
 
They can't even get bills through the senate/house that would likely have a larger effect on our gun death totals such as standardized and more stringent background checks.

More polarizing issues like rifle bans don't stand a chance, and will cost Democrats seats as well.

That's true, but most of Obama's proposal and whats' on Clinton's website is pragmatic and should have a chance to pass if the Democrats get the majority of the House and Senate again. The only thing that would have a hard time to pass there is assault weapon ban, especially since people have different definitions on what that means.
 
Mark Murray ‏@mmurraypolitics 48s48 seconds ago
Clinton leads Trump among Latinos by 76%-14% margin, per NBC/WSJ/Telemundo oversample (English + Spanish interviews)

Good.

Although Priebus says Trump will go on a Hispanic tour after the convention.
 
Yeah, but how heavily are the weighing it? I have to imagine the model scales appropriately based on pollster, consistency of the poll and recency of the poll.

They're weighing it at 0.79. So pretty heavily. The thing is, I have no idea why it's in the average and weighted more than the more recent Survey USA poll.
 
Michigan always seems to produce weird polls.

Remember that in 2012 the polling aggregate had Obama leading by 4 there, and he won it by 9.5.

Polling today seems pretty good. Hopefully everyone will stop freaking out.
 

Holmes

Member
Clinton is up 7 among LVs in that ABC poll. She's up 4 among RVs (useless) and up 10 among adults (even more useless). But it shows that turnout will be key for the Clinton campaign and she has an edge with that.

Also lol Michigan polls. Romney was leading in a few Michigan polls in summer 2012.
 

Crisco

Banned
If we get more and more dead cops at the hands of assault rifles (even though that's a stupid term), I could easily see a major push to ban them in a 1990's style ban.

They need to stop calling them "assault rifles" and just go with the more accurate term "weapons of war". Basically, anything that was ever designed by and for the military, or anything derived from them, should never be made available for public sale. Certain ones should be banned outright and made illegal to own, with buyback programs compelling owners to give them up. This line of bullshit that a semi-auto .22 hunting rifle is the same as a SCAR needs to be rejected.
 

Teggy

Member
Well, while we await Trump's I AM THE LAW AND ORDER CANDIDATE I WILL RESTORE LAW AND ORDER LAW AND ORDER tweet, I can at least enjoy those Forma tweets. I picture her giggling endlessly as she types those out
or her assistant

Did that poll just trigger Trump into an anti CNN frenzy? The guy is just insane.
 
They need to stop calling them "assault rifles" and just go with the more accurate term "weapons of war". Basically, anything that was ever designed by and for the military, or anything derived from them, should never be made available for public sale. Certain ones should be banned outright and made illegal to own, with buyback programs compelling owners to give them up. This line of bullshit that a semi-auto .22 hunting rifle is the same as a SCAR needs to be rejected.

Or just "high capacity guns"?
 
Clinton is up 7 among LVs in that ABC poll. She's up 4 among RVs (useless) and up 10 among adults (even more useless). But it shows that turnout will be key for the Clinton campaign and she has an edge with that.

Also lol Michigan polls. Romney was leading in a few Michigan polls in summer 2012.
Someone made a point that likely voter screens usually benefit Republicans, but almost every time this year it's benefited Democrats instead.

Clinton will have a massive GOTV operation on Election Day, even in states she probably won't really need (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania on the Dem side, Arizona and North Carolina on the GOP side). Trump will have a patchwork of local efforts which will mean nothing compared to a coordinated national campaign. Also, GOP partisans are more likely to be unhappy about this year's nominee than Dem partisans. For her poor favorables, Clinton is well-liked by Democrats.

If the fundamentals of the race strongly favor Trump, he'll win. But in the event that this is a close election, Clinton will have the structural advantage. And if it's looking to be a 6-8 point blowout, you could easily see that becoming 10.
 

pigeon

Banned
They need to stop calling them "assault rifles" and just go with the more accurate term "weapons of war". Basically, anything that was ever designed by and for the military, or anything derived from them, should never be made available for public sale. Certain ones should be banned outright and made illegal to own, with buyback programs compelling owners to give them up. This line of bullshit that a semi-auto .22 hunting rifle is the same as a SCAR needs to be rejected.

You just defined a term that includes every gun ever manufactured, plus the Internet.
 
w
Or just "high capacity guns"?

Any rifle that

1) Has semi-auto capability
2) Has a internal or external capacity of over five to six bullets

Should be removed from the public without either a service record (that is not discharged with mental health or dishonorable reasons) or an extensive amount of training and background checks.

Pistols with magazines with similar magazine sizes would also be the max, anything more should be banned as well as any extended magazines.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage

+3 in Michigan? Perhaps my prediction of Michigan going red comes sooner than later.

Adam387 said:
FWIW those YouGov polls are based on an electorate that has more men than women and a more white electorate than 2012.

That may be the case in Michigan since 2012. The population there has had some bizarre swings.
 

Holmes

Member
+3 in Michigan? Perhaps my prediction of Michigan going red comes sooner than later.



That may be the case in Michigan since 2012. The population there has had some bizarre swings.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html#polls

Look at June to August. Polls kept going back and forth between Romney and Obama leads, up until the conventions. The only pollster that had comfortable Obama leads was (interestingly!) Rasmussen.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Checked the details, and Michigan's white-only population has actually risen a percent from 2010 to 2015.

Probably not enough to have that big of an effect, though.

Holmes said:
Look at June to August. Polls kept going back and forth between Romney and Obama leads, up until the conventions. The only pollster that had comfortable Obama leads was (interestingly!) Rasmussen

Michigan is always good for weird polling. The primary disaster with Democratic primary polling was evidence enough.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
Another police shooting rampage. This is a super worrying trend, I hope the Dallas shooting doesn't get too many more imitators.

Hopefully police departments will ask where this anger is coming from. But these individual acts will probably just militarize the police further.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
This goes back to what keV or alt-kev said earlier, the number of white males he had to win was based on Obama's numbers. She's exceeding Obama's numbers with all minority groups and white women and college educated white people. That white male number cited months ago isn't enough to offset her gains with every other demographic

I honestly don't see any viable way this is even going to be an election that lasts beyond 9pm eastern unless turnout is catastrophically low on the Dem side

But that's my point. Why is it so close? Unless a) turnout models are way off or b) 5/6 points IS a landslide in merka. I think it could be a but also b!

The idea that they could be tied nationally when he has to win so many white people is just so hard to believe. It implies he's doing the impossible.
 
Hmm, I'm part of a ridiculously white environmental group and I probably need to explain to all these other white people how comparing climate change to slavery is not helping us get volunteers of color.

This is not going to be fun.
 

pigeon

Banned
Any rifle that

1) Has semi-auto capability
2) Has a internal or external capacity of five to six bullets

Should be removed from the public without either a service record (that is not discharged with mental health or dishonorable reasons) or an extensive amount of training and background checks.

Pistols with magazines with similar magazine sizes would also be the max, anything more should be banned as well as any extended magazines.

Banning semi-automatic long guns is nuts. Almost all long guns in the world are semi-automatic. People don't generally run around with bolt action rifles for hunting deer. That's like bow hunting.

If your goal is to limit guns that are best designed for killing humans, you could focus on caliber or ammo type. That might work.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
What...is going on here? What's the actual explanation for this photo?
look in the mirror

CnkzxZlWIAAICB9.jpg:large
 

Grief.exe

Member
Any rifle that

1) Has semi-auto capability
2) Has a internal or external capacity of five to six bullets

Should be removed from the public without either a service record (that is not discharged with mental health or dishonorable reasons) or an extensive amount of training and background checks.

Pistols with magazines with similar magazine sizes would also be the max, anything more should be banned as well as any extended magazines.

Literally every hunting rifle.
 
Banning semi-automatic long guns is nuts. Almost all long guns in the world are semi-automatic. People don't generally run around with bolt action rifles for hunting deer. That's like bow hunting.

If your goal is to limit guns that are best designed for killing humans, you could focus on caliber or ammo type. That might work.

Like I said, force weapon manufactures to create internal magazines that limit the weapon to 5-6 bullets per cartridge or have the weapon be difficult to modify with higher capacity magainzes. It can still be semi-automatic, but it prevents the type of carnage we see in these type of shooting events.

Or force civilian versions to be converted before purchase to smaller caliber like you said.

Literally every hunting rifle.

Banning semi-automatic long guns is nuts. Almost all long guns in the world are semi-automatic. People don't generally run around with bolt action rifles for hunting deer. That's like bow hunting.

If your goal is to limit guns that are best designed for killing humans, you could focus on caliber or ammo type. That might work.

EDIT: I messed up that post, I meant to say over five to six bullets in capacity.
 

Grief.exe

Member
Like I said, force weapon manufactures to create internal magazines that limit the weapon to 5-6 bullets per cartridge. It can still be semi-automatic, but it prevents the type of carnage we see in these type of shooting events.

Or force civilian versions to be converted before purchase to smaller caliber like you said.

EDIT: I messed up that post, I meant to say over five to six bullets in capacity.

I believe the .22 is the most dangerous round in America because it is so cheap, it's also the smallest cartridge manufactured.

Internal magazines are referred to as clips.
 

gcubed

Member
But that's my point. Why is it so close? Unless a) turnout models are way off or b) 5/6 points IS a landslide in merka. I think it could be a but also b!

The idea that they could be tied nationally when he has to win so many white people is just so hard to believe. It implies he's doing the impossible.

I mean, you are also talking about July, before people REALLY care.

One of two scenarios will form - state polls are right and national polls will start to move more to her (she's not winning FL and VA by 10 and winning the pop vote by 5). Or state polls are wrong.

Again, it's also July
 
I believe the .22 is the most dangerous round in America because it is so cheap, it's also the smallest cartridge manufactured.

Internal magazines are referred to as clips.

No, clips are used to load bullets into magazines.

In this case the magazine is internal in the weapon, so the clip is used to strip the bullets into the magazine.

And yes, the .22 is capable of killing people, but it's far less deadly than a .223. Couple that with a limit in the magazine size and you can easily reduce the killing capability in a mass shooting incident.

But I'm not talking about limiting people to .22, I'm simply talking about forcing weapons to have a limited amount of bullets per load so it forces more constant reloads, which in turn will create gaps in fire allowing officers to not be suppressed, people to run, people to have a chance to take action and not be forced to stand behind cover.
 

Grief.exe

Member
No, clips are used to load bullets into magazines.

In this case the magazine is internal in the weapon, so the clip is used to strip the bullets into the magazine.

And yes, the .22 is capable of killing people, but it's far less deadly than a .223. Couple that with a limit in the magazine size and you can easily reduce the killing capability in a mass shooting incident.

But I'm not talking about limiting people to .22

Oh yes.

I think you're right about Internal Magazines though. It would severely limit your killing power as reloading would take significantly longer and hold less rounds, but wouldn't limit hobby shooters and hunters as reloading speed is irrelevant in these conditions.

.223/5.56 is one of the weaker rifle cartridges in the modern era, if not the weakest. Most states don't even allow people to hunt deer with the round.

The open carry has already begun in Cleveland

https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/754726697577119744
 

Emarv

Member
I mean, you are also talking about July, before people REALLY care.

One of two scenarios will form - state polls are right and national polls will start to move more to her (she's not winning FL and VA by 10 and winning the pop vote by 5). Or state polls are wrong.

Again, it's also July

Fuck, it's only July.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
FUCK!!!!

This whole shebang has been going on since February. Or earlier really. American elections are so long.
 
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