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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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User 463088

Banned
Foffy said:
Excuse me...? D:
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Sorry.

There are four good albums that came as a result of Drag race.

Adore's, Alaska's, Willam's and Sharon's.

tumblr_o8ihm5Fa4U1v70bbno6_500.gif
 
M

mo60

Member
Bowdz said:
Unless Assange has some Foundation emails explicitly linking Hillary Clinton to political favors for donations, there is nothing to worry about. The media will cover any email leaks throughout the weekdays and by the evenings they'll gush about the convention speeches. They'll probably cover the Bernie or Bust protests and play up the disunity angle, but I doubt it'll have much effect. The bottom line is I doubt we'll see Hillary get a massive convention bump and honestly, that's okay.

After the convention, campaigning in swing states will begin in earnest and the dream team we've been waiting for will finally come into play. That'll probably move the swing state polls more than anything else. The debates will seal the deal. As for foreign events, we haven't seen any polls tightening directly because of shootings or terror attacks. Additionally, it is up to team Clinton to make the fundamental argument that Trump is dangerous in these scenarios (and it is an argument they started to make quite effectively on 60 Minutes).

The ultimate failsafe is demographics and turnout, both of which heavily favor Clinton. As long as she keeps her margins high with Hispanics, African Americans, and women, she'll win. Her ground game will be among the best we've seen and if you're still freaked out, volunteer and make it better.

As Plouffe said, this is all white noise. Keep your head down and focus on fundamentals.
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I do think the one thing the dem convention will help build is the narrative that hilary will be the safest and best choice for president and how people can trust the democrats to make their lives better if hilary becomes the 45th president of the US.She will get a polling bump from the convention but it probably won't be massive because the dem convention won't be a dumpster fire compared to the RNC.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Well I'm ready for Sanders to give Trump the business tomorrow. But knowing Trump, he'll just have a tantrum and start shit talking Sanders.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
mo60 said:
Trump must really love bernie if he keeps on tweeting about him.
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That's a fake tweet. But anyway...

@realDonaldTrump
An analysis showed that Bernie Sanders would have won the Democratic nomination if it were not for the Super Delegates.
2:30 PM - 24 Jul 2016

lol
 
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User 463088

Banned
Kristoffer said:
That's a fake tweet. But anyway...

@realDonaldTrump
An analysis showed that Bernie Sanders would have won the Democratic nomination if it were not for the Super Delegates.
2:30 PM - 24 Jul 2016

lol
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That's not fake. That was a real tweet that he then later corrected the spelling of "waste" on.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Holmes said:
Well I'm ready for Sanders to give Trump the business tomorrow. But knowing Trump, he'll just have a tantrum and start shit talking Sanders.
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He'll shit on Sanders while trying to court his supporters.

On another note DWS needs to go. Obama and Clinton camps need to call her now and tell her to just go. Fuck having her talk. You don't need this insignificant thing lingering.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Also I think it may be possible that a lot of people now just don't care about anything anymore in politics and may just want to "burn it all down", enough to make the election a true tossup. It comes from a place of privilege but it's something that people who would suffer under a Trump presidency will have to deal with.
 
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Bowdz

Member
I swear to god, people would be mortified by politics ANY other time in our history. DWS did nothing illegal and was purely forced out for political reasons (which is fine). There is nothing wrong with giving her something as a condition if it gets the outcome we want. None of us were in the room. Who's to say she didn't put up a fight (as has been reported) and the only way to placate he to step down was to give her X position? Bernie just got something he's wanted all year and Hillary will hopefully get a more harmonious convention. It is a win/win.

This is the same kind of absolutist mindset that the Tea Party has. Give us everything we want or else and nothing is good unless it is exactly what we want. Pragmatism is how to govern effectively and this is the definition of pragmatism.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
adam387 said:
You're equating the emails one to one with her approval rating. I don't think we can do that. Her approval ratings have ALWAYS taken a hit while she's running for office. They're slightly lower than at her previously low point, but not by that much. (In 94, she was at 35% approval during the fight for health care).

I think there are a lot of reasons for this, not least of which her gender! The emails didn't help with her ratings, of course, but to pretend that they are the sole rationale is rather simplistic. She's had shit thrown at her for 25 years. She's had Bernie and his campaign throwing shit at her from the left for a year. And, ya, the email thing, sure.
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You're right, I'm over-simplifying the issue but I have a hard to accepting nearly the best possible outcome for this campaign is that Clinton wins by a surprisingly small amount and is historically unpopular. Whats happens if the campaign was just average? A Sanders nomination?

There are outside factors like her gender that are impacting the campaign but I think a more flexible team could leverage things like that to her advantage. Women are the majority of voters after all. They're just being too straightforward and not trying to build on the candidate's strengths, which I believe are real
 
R

remist

Member
I've been hypercritical of her and the DNC, but as long as her speech is conciliatory I don't see what the big deal is with her being on the convention floor. I guess the thought is that Bernie people will freak out, but I think that kind of stuff will be pretty isolated and forgotten about quickly.
 
O

Officerrob

Banned
Bowdz said:
I swear to god, people would be mortified by politics ANY other time in our history. DWS did nothing illegal and was purely forced out for political reasons (which is fine). There is nothing wrong with giving her something as a condition if it gets the outcome we want. None of us were in the room. Who's to say she didn't put up a fight (as has been reported) and the only way to placate he to step down was to give her X position? Bernie just got something he's wanted all year and Hillary will hopefully get a more harmonious convention. It is a win/win.

This is the same kind of absolutist mindset that the Tea Party has. Give us everything we want or else and nothing is good unless it is exactly what we want. Pragmatism is how to govern effectively and this is the definition of pragmatism.
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I'm as far from a Bernie supporter as it gets, and I think DWS needed to be on a plane back to Florida hours ago. I don't give a shit about DWS, and I don't give a shit about placating her. Fall on the fucking sword and go away for the good of the party
 
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Boke1879

Member
Bowdz said:
I swear to god, people would be mortified by politics ANY other time in our history. DWS did nothing illegal and was purely forced out for political reasons (which is fine). There is nothing wrong with giving her something as a condition if it gets the outcome we want. None of us were in the room. Who's to say she didn't put up a fight (as has been reported) and the only way to placate he to step down was to give her X position? Bernie just got something he's wanted all year and Hillary will hopefully get a more harmonious convention. It is a win/win.

This is the same kind of absolutist mindset that the Tea Party has. Give us everything we want or else and nothing is good unless it is exactly what we want. Pragmatism is how to govern effectively and this is the definition of pragmatism.
Click to expand...

At first I didn't care that she spoke. I figured that was just the dems throwing her a bone. But if he's walking around the convention now with news crews still there that's just not a good look. While ultimately I don't think it matters once tomorrow hits it's just not a good look. She really shouldn't be in the public eye until her speaking role.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Bowdz said:
I swear to god, people would be mortified by politics ANY other time in our history. DWS did nothing illegal and was purely forced out for political reasons (which is fine). There is nothing wrong with giving her something as a condition if it gets the outcome we want. None of us were in the room. Who's to say she didn't put up a fight (as has been reported) and the only way to placate he to step down was to give her X position? Bernie just got something he's wanted all year and Hillary will hopefully get a more harmonious convention. It is a win/win.

This is the same kind of absolutist mindset that the Tea Party has. Give us everything we want or else and nothing is good unless it is exactly what we want. Pragmatism is how to govern effectively and this is the definition of pragmatism.
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Well it seems the state of politics is now "give me 100% of what I want or I'm going to call for you to get locked up".
 
P

Piecake

Member
pigeon said:
Also, I changed my avatar, but since last time I did this there was a lot of discussion, a brief explanation, though I doubt anybody cares that much!

Originally I chose John Boehner as my avatar (God, so many years ago now) because it was the first funny political picture I saw. But as I continued to observe the (basically thankless and terrible) job he did, I started to develop a lot of respect for him. Boehner had to deal with a more difficult situation than any Speaker of the House for many years, being the leader of a party that was heavily infiltrated by crazy people, and he managed to keep his party relatively sound, pass the necessary legislation to keep the government functioning, and even advance his legislative priorities through two hostile chambers. To be honest, Boehner is the first time I respected a politician whose party I disagreed with, and watching his moves helped me understand how the system finds a way to actually work even when the odds are heavily stacked against it.

Paul Ryan may have been his successor as Speaker, but to be frank, he is by no means his successor as a politician. For somebody talked about as a potential Republican candidate (by me, even), every time he's had a difficult choice to make, he's taken the easy way out. More than any other politician in America, Paul Ryan had the chance to stand up and say "I lead the Republican Party and Donald Trump is not welcome in it." He chose not to do so. We're all dealing with the consequences.

If Paul Ryan is remembered by history at all, it will be as a man who, for purely quotidian political reasons, enabled fascism to come to America.

So now it's Ted Cruz. Cruz is an advocate for basically evil policies and probably a sociopath, as well as not really a nice person to hang out with apparently. But, first, he took a stand against Donald Trump, if for his own reasons, and secondly, he's pretty good at his job.
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I thought Cruz was the bigger threat in the primaries. I was wrong. If Cruz became President I am not worried about America turning Fascist. He might make it a complete shit-hole, but our democracy would be safe and I wouldn't be worried about NATO completely collapsing.
 
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pigeon

Banned
You guys are killing me.

She's probably walking around the convention because she's been working for months on planning the coronation of her close friend HRC and now she won't even be able to go.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
Piecake said:
I thought Cruz was the bigger threat in the primaries. I was wrong. If Cruz became President I am not worried about America turning Fascist. He might make it a complete shit-hole, but our democracy would be safe and I wouldn't be worried about NATO completely collapsing.
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well, cruz was nixon 2.0, so...sure, your democracy would prolly be safe. The rest of the world, tho...
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Not sure if this is new or not, but NYT has confirmed that the DNC hacks were done by Russia.

But researchers have concluded that the national committee was breached by two Russian intelligence agencies, which were the same attackers behind previous Russian cyberoperations at the White House, the State Department and the Joint Chiefs of Staff last year. And metadata from the released emails suggests that the documents passed through Russian computers.
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R

royalan

Member
Loudninja said:
Who gives a damn my god!
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I don't care.

You don't care.

Half of the CNN panel doesn't care.

But it's optics. This is bad optics, C and just guarantees people will still talk about this.

I agree with not slandering DWS. She doesn't deserve that. Retire her quietly.

But it makes no sense to let her speak.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Boke1879 said:
Dem surrogates need to really hammer this point home and try and tie it to Trump.
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It's a fine line that we're going to have to walk with this.

Do we keep it in the media by saying "Yup, it was Russia" or do we STFU about it and let it go? That's what we have to figure out.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Loudninja said:
The overreacting to this is annoying.
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There was an Atlantic article a while back about the GOP trying to block the pension of the IRS chief because of the 401c3 scandal, a purely vindictive action made even worse by the fact that he had earned that pension at his previous government job which he retired from before being brought back to help with the IRS investigation.

I feel like that's basically how people are treating DWS here.

The convention hasn't even started yet.

Just let it go. Is Bernie still complaining? Because if not its just a bunch of bros.
 
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Boke1879

Member
I'll wait until Michelle and Bernie give their speeches and we'll see if anyone truly cares about this.

Dems have a real chance with their speakers to present a unified front and I feel to they will. The speeches will own the cycle tomorrow night and will disperse through the facebook and twitterverse.
 
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Boke1879

Member
pigeon said:
There was an Atlantic article a while back about the GOP trying to block the pension of the IRS chief because of the 401c3 scandal, a purely vindictive action made even worse by the fact that he had earned that pension at his previous government job which he retired from before being brought back to help with the IRS investigation.

I feel like that's basically how people are treating DWS here.

The convention hasn't even started yet.

Just let it go. Is Bernie still complaining? Because if not its just a bunch of bros.
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Did you change your avi?
 
B

Bowdz

Member
She was the second in command of the entire Democratic party. Whether or not she's loved or loathed (for the record, I despise her and think she did a shit job), it has got to be hard for someone with an ego to be forced out one day before the biggest event of the year which she's helped plan and execute. It's like being Shuhei Yosida being ousted the day before E3. It'd probably suck. I don't fault her for wanting to give a speech (even if the optics are bad).

Also, I'm not sure everyone who is questioning the outcome has truly worked with someone with a big ego, but I can say from firsthand experience that things like rationality and "for the good of the party/company" go out the window when their ego is threatened. Remember when people kept freaking out that Bernie's ego was so big that he'd gladly watch the party burn? Who's to say that DWS wasn't actually of that mindset.

Bottom line, in a perfect world, she'd be gone from the convention with no speaking role and never seen from outside of her district again, don't live in a perfect world where everyone acts in the public interest and thus, compromises need to be made.
 
R

royalan

Member
adam387 said:
It's a fine line that we're going to have to walk with this.

Do we keep it in the media by saying "Yup, it was Russia" or do we STFU about it and let it go? That's what we have to figure out.
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They need to hammer this in like crazy.

Not only does it take the heat off the DNC, but the nominee of one of our major parties may be in cahoots with Russia. That's a big damn deal that should concern everyone, R D and I.

If this were 30-40 years ago, the intense scrutiny over this would practically disqualify a candidate.
 
D

Diablos

Member
adam387 said:
It's a fine line that we're going to have to walk with this.

Do we keep it in the media by saying "Yup, it was Russia" or do we STFU about it and let it go? That's what we have to figure out.
Click to expand...
Pin it on Russia. People have to equate this with a foreign hacker and not an extentsion of the FBI woes, which low info voters may think if this isn't communicated properly.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
adam387 said:
It's a fine line that we're going to have to walk with this.

Do we keep it in the media by saying "Yup, it was Russia" or do we STFU about it and let it go? That's what we have to figure out.
Click to expand...

I say you at least pin on Russia because that's the truth. Then you hope to go our media and intelligence does it's job and run with the story.
 
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