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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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A

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
Everyone do the diablos.

krabs_rag3do.jpg


It's his convention bump.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Donald Trump bounces into the lead


(CNN)The bounce is back.

Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. That latter finding represents a 6-point convention bounce for Trump, which are traditionally measured in two-way matchups.

There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to the Supreme Court.

.....


Trump's newfound lead is also boosted by a sharp increase in support from whites without college degrees. In the new poll they break 62% for Trump to 23% for Clinton, while whites who hold at least a bachelor's degree have actually tilted more pro-Clinton since the convention (from a 40% to 40% split pre-convention to a 44% Clinton to 39% Trump divide now).
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Wat.
 
M

Maledict

Member
andthebeatgoeson said:
Everyone do the diablos.



It's his convention bump.
Click to expand...

Thing is people haven't been getting big convention bumps for a while.

Plus how on earth did anything from that convention boost his numbers? Every aspect was awful apart from his daughter giving a Democratic Party speech. Even if you are susceptible to the autocratic, fear mongering 'every thing is fucked only Trump can fix it' line his speech was terrible! Too long, rambling nonsense.
 
V

VRMN

Member
...why does that poll not have any breakdown of the 18-34 demo? It just has N/A down the line, which...indicates they didn't get a big enough sample to breakdown?
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
VRMN said:
...why does that poll not have any breakdown of the 18-34 demo? It just has N/A down the line, which...indicates they didn't get a big enough sample to breakdown?
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Yes.

Although I think the result is weighted. Not sure.

But lol. Trump isn't going to get within nearly half and half with women.
And he isn't going to outperform Rmoney with non-whites.

And Gary Johnson isn't getting 10% lol.
 
T

thefro

Member
They didn't interview enough 18-34 year olds to even break them out as a group, lol. Kinda bullshit.

But anyway, the crosstabs suggest Trump shored up his base + probably somewhat of an outlier swing.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Not unexpected coming out of their convention and a week of non-stop Trump. Wait to see how this week plays out. And regardless, the Presidency isn't predicated on national polling, if he surges ahead in battleground polls in places like FL/PA/VA, then we have cause for serious concern.
 
S

sdijoseph

Member
thefro said:
They didn't interview enough 18-34 year olds to even break them out as a group, lol. Kinda bullshit.

But anyway, the crosstabs suggest Trump shored up his base + probably somewhat of an outlier swing.
Click to expand...

I mean, they also didn't have 18-34 crosstabs for the poll where she was up 7 points. This is probably just a convention bump, just like McCain got in 2008.
 
D

Diablos

Member
So I wake up to news of another mass shooting in FL and fascism actually fueling a convention bounce for Trump. Now all we need is another dump of hacked DNC emails!!

How much of a bounce did RMoney get? McCain?

Dems please don't fuck up your convention.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
There definitely has been some kind of convention bounce. If Clinton doesn't get one than it will be time to panic. It's a shame that last week can get you anything though.
 
D

Diablos

Member
The convention also helped Trump make strides in his personal image. A majority (52%) now say Trump is running for president for the good of the country rather than personal gain, just 44% say the same about Clinton. He's increased the share who call him honest and trustworthy (from 38% to 43%), and who would be proud to have him as president (from 32% to 39%). And nearly half now say he's in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (46% say so, 37% did before the convention).
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Absolutely disgusting.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Y2Kev said:
What exactly should they have done differently?
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That's the thing - I'm just frustrated at the outcome vs process of the last few weeks, not sure what they could have done differently.

I'm sort of feeling like they're being complacent, and I'm not sure that's them or just media perception. This DWS thing is... at best poorly timed.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
The fact that Trump can get any bounce is disturbing
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As I said in the thread in OT, the most disturbing thing wasn't the general bounce but the bounce on these subjects:

The convention also helped Trump make strides in his personal image. A majority (52%) now say Trump is running for president for the good of the country rather than personal gain, just 44% say the same about Clinton. He's increased the share who call him honest and trustworthy (from 38% to 43%), and who would be proud to have him as president (from 32% to 39%). And nearly half now say he's in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives (46% say so, 37% did before the convention).]
Click to expand...

It's very disconcerting that his fear mongering speech has him at or near 50% on all those matters somehow.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
People are going to need to accept that half the country supports the kinds of things trump is saying. I know it's hard to imagine and it's been a little shocking but it's true.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Y2Kev said:
People are going to need to accept that half the country supports the kinds of things trump is saying. I know it's hard to imagine and it's been a little shocking but it's true.
Click to expand...

Yep. Completely disheartening and makes me want to move so my kids don't have to grow up here.
 
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