PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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Even as someone who preferred Hillary, watching Bernie's speech and his supporters was really neat. While there definitely were shitty things happening by toxic members in his camp, I think his supporters and Bernie himself are rightfully proud of their efforts and influence in this election. Also, since this speech probably is Bernie's political apex, I was happy to let him his moment with his supporters and enjoy all the chants and cheering. I'm really glad that we as Democrats all listened to him tonight and recognized that, and continue to be a bit more united after today.
 
Really stupid question....

Bernie is a super, do we know how he's voting tomorrow? I don't begrudge him voting for himself, but it would be really cool if he voted for Hillary. As a super in 2008. Hillary voted for Obama....

Never mind. He's confirmed for Hillary.

Good on you Bernie.
 
Piecake said:
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/21/how-to-explain-xi-jinpings-mounting-foreign-policy-failures/

I thought this was a pretty good article about how China is trying to throw its muscle around in the international arena, and makes the case that these failures by Xi Jinping have really tarnished a lot of the groundwork of china's 'peaceful rise' before him.
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I don't see anything there about China using its economic power to try and change domestic policies, let alone makes them a colony under Chinese control.

And the only thing see there that is even related to trade is the steel trade dispute, which predates Xi Jinping by quite a lot, and even there, this is just a good old trade war, I don't think China is trying to put countries under its sphere of influence or whatever, it's just trying to get better trade deals (which is also what the US and the EU is trying to do).

Don't get me wrong, I think mutually beneficial and agreed upon trade deals are better than trade wars, which is why I think that one of the TPP's greatest shortcoming is that China is not part of it.
 
pigeon said:
Years from now people will start threads saying "Is Barack Obama the best orator of the modern era?"

I will take pleasure in posting in those threads "Barack Obama isn't even the best orator in the Obama family."
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I know it's apocryphal but I always loved that joke about Ringo Starr.
 
I'm just now watching Michelle Obama's full speech and goddamn she killed it. I'm blown away by her remarks at Trump and the Bernie or Bust folks. She shut them all down WHILE taking the high road. Damn. Amazing.
 
sphagnum said:
Some guy: "Is Ringo Starr the best drummer around?"
John Lennon: "He's not even the best drummer in the Beatles."
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nCJ2Sw1.jpg


Not only does Yasser Arafat looks like Ringo Starr, he's also a better drummer than him.
 
Looks like things got better in the night. Thank God.

Still people booing during primetime sucks.

Oh god reading the Michelle speech reactions imagine if she was interested in Politics. She would slay so much, Republicans would be like STOP we can't take it no more.
 
sphagnum said:
Some guy: "Is Ringo Starr the best drummer around?"
John Lennon: "He's not even the best drummer in the Beatles."
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Lennon's response is referring to Paul's drum work on "Back in the USSR" and "Dear Prudence" from the White Album. Paul also played drums on "The Ballad of John & Yoko".
 
cartoon_soldier said:
I am just watching Corey Booker's speech and am getting there. Haven't even hit Forma, Michelle and then Sanders.

Edit: Imagine if Booker was from like NC, PA or VA.
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Booker's speech was powerful but not great. He gets rushed, the speech was too long to begin with, and although I'm glad he was smiling, sometimes he seemed to be smiling because he knew he was nailing his speech which seemed at odds with the gravity of his speech. He didn't hold the moment like he could have.
 
watershed said:
Booker's speech was powerful but not great. He gets rushed, the speech was too long to begin with, and although I'm glad he was smiling, sometimes he seemed to be smiling because he knew he was nailing his speech which seemed at odds with the gravity of his speech. He didn't hold the moment like he could have.
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You saw how much he was sweating. He wanted to get to some god damn AC.
 
Jeff Sessions is, umm, insane.

Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions said that Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor's religious convictions have damaged her ability to decide cases.

The National Law Journal reported that Sessions made the comments during a panel discussion at the Republican National Convention about the state of the federal judiciary.
Sessions said that Sotomayor's comments about objectivity "still makes the hair stand on my neck.

"She said there is no objectivity, just a series of perspectives," he said and speculates that Sotomayor might not be religious enough.

"If you have secularization in the world and don't believe in a higher being, maybe you don't believe there is any truth," Sessions said
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http://www.newsmax.com/t/newsmax/ar...ge/Articles/Template-Main&oref=m.facebook.com
 
I'm curious, why is Nate Silver intent on becoming everything he decried in the past? Am I wrong on that? His whole "Now-Cast" model seems reactionary.
 
watershed said:
I'm curious, why is Nate Silver intent on becoming everything he decried in the past? Am I wrong on that? His whole "Now-Cast" model seems reactionary.
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Yeah. It's way to reactionary. Any slight shift in the polls can change the color of any state especially the vulnerable ones even if those vulnerable states have no new state level polls.It can also change hilary's chances of winning drastically. Also one thing to watch once clinton regains her big lead is if she can make the GOP sweat in states like Arizona, Georgia and etc.Arizona and Georgia are currently tossups according to RCP. I do expet hilary to do better than her polls in the end anyway.
 
watershed said:
I'm curious, why is Nate Silver intent on becoming everything he decried in the past? Am I wrong on that? His whole "Now-Cast" model seems reactionary.
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Differences between polls-only and now-cast:

-The now-cast is basically the polls-only model, except that we lie to our computer and tell it the election is today.
-As a result, the now-cast is very aggressive. It’s much more confident than polls-plus or polls-only; it weights recent polls more heavily and is more aggressive in calculating a trend line.
-There could be some big differences around the conventions. The polls-only and polls-plus models discount polls taken just after the conventions, whereas the now-cast will work to quickly capture the convention bounce.
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The race has gotten a bit closer, even if Hillary is probably ahead. If you look at poll aggregates and other forecasts say so. For the stated reason, their now cast obviously is very sensitive to trends, but their polls only and polls plus models are still there if you want. As for why they have the now-cast, I don't know, but as a political and numbers nerd it's neat to look at really different ways all the models (not just the 538 ones) look at this election. We just have to be able to discern through trashy articles like this and this and this who jump on views with clickbait titles. Sometimes, even forecasters are guilty of this (certainly Nate, and even a place like Upshot with their free throw comment).
 
Anybody have the information on why Obama pursued TPP?

I feel like this election would be 5x easier for Dems if TPP didn't exist.

And yea if Hillary breaks her TPP pledge she will get primaried very very badly in 2020
 
cartoon_soldier said:
Anybody have the information on why Obama pursued TPP?

I feel like this election would be 5x easier if TPP didn't exist.
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Because it's a good thing and binds Asia into the American sphere of influence instead of China's. It's primary purpose is to ensure continued American economic hedgemony in the area - out of all the countries involved the USA is the one with the least to complain!

(Note - American economic hedgemony is good compared to the alternative which is China!)
 
watershed said:
Booker's speech was powerful but not great. He gets rushed, the speech was too long to begin with, and although I'm glad he was smiling, sometimes he seemed to be smiling because he knew he was nailing his speech which seemed at odds with the gravity of his speech. He didn't hold the moment like he could have.
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I think part of it was that he was trying to really power through over some of the stupid heckling. I think part of it being rushed was him not wanting to give the chanters a moment to break through, instead of just being background noise.
 
Still in shock (and awe (sorry)) over the quality of speakers for the Democrats. I mean, many of the "big names" for Republicans actually showed up last week (all the party leadership and who they consider "rising") and it was still miserable. This is going to dog them for some time yet. Since they did next to nothing to work on a new generation of the party while W was in office there's a massive vacuum that's barely starting to fill itself in now. No succession whatsoever from that administration was quite a mistake. Even if they would have been entirely tainted by the W legacy for 4-8 years it's at least a basic infrastructure. That total lack of vision is what's caused the broader disaster the party is in now, too, of course.

The GOP won't truly get anywhere until the neocons and all the ancient Reagan/Bush advisors are out. Trump as the nominee forcing a lot of the more ambitious members of the party away has effectively delayed the entire process 4 years. Even worse, Trump deeply humiliated the core of that alleged deep bench of theirs. And as a bonus, he's glad to burn bridges that were just starting construction. Every old GOP stereotype of the past 20+ years is being heavily reinforced. The platform officially confirms it, being even more ridiculous and out of touch as the one in 2012.

Meanwhile, Obama created a ruthlessly efficient campaign machine the party gets to inherent and the DNC has too many notable faces to throw up to fit them all in the prime speaking slots. Got to say, did not picture it like this 8 years ago (beyond knowing Hillary would run) with Biden being a likely dead end VP. If I have one complaint here it's that the organizational and grassroots power we've learned progressive can have (from Dean > Obama > Sanders) has resulted in too aggressive a platform. It has a number of large leaps forward I can see the general public not being entirely comfortable with. Almost too forward-thinking. Good thing it's competing against the more absurd conservative platform ever!

As an interesting twist, the whole Putin thing. DNC party emails are a non-story after this week, and it's an It's Fucking Nothing to the general public regardless. DWS got outed in a hurry when it hit the fan and her temporary replacement at the head of the convention is adorable and forgets that she has to use a gavel for stuff. It didn't cause any institutional crisis for the convention or anything. The day 1 jeering drama was going to be there anyway. It's an odd thing to gambit on heavily with 100+ days to go still. After exposure and skepticism from Americans it'll be harder to try to push anything into the media, and it just makes Trump look bad.

What an incredibly petty thing to blow your cover on.

Apologies for the rant post.
 
I am still concerned about what these people will do during Bill Clinton speech (good amount of worry about this), Obama speech, Tim Kaine speech (most worried about this) and Hillary Clinton speech (lot of worry about this)

Even after convention ended they were shouting anti Hillary slogans. I don't think Bernie's speech really had any effect of a vast majority of those assholes holding out there.
 
Y2Kev said:
Has there been any news on the CA Delegates being swapped out / booted? They must go.
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Agreeeeeed

NBC/WSJ:

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ld-trump-n616426?cid=sm_twitter_feed_politics

Donald Trump received no significant bounce following the Republican National Convention, according to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll. Hillary Clinton still leads Trump by a single point: 46 percent to 45 percent. These numbers are unchanged from last week.
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Y2Kev said:
Has there been any news on the CA Delegates being swapped out / booted? They must go.
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seriously.

as someone from california, i've seen bernie fans kinda/sorta like this. one guy who is a big bernie fan is also super anti-trump and is voting hillary, but someone else was a fan of bernie and will vote trump. it's been slow-going in the whole, 'but banning muslims is unconstitutional and a slippery slope and extremely dangerous precedent,' argument has had a bit of sway.

despite these guys being around my age (one a couple years younger and the other a couple years older), i think this is the first election where they're paying some attention. so i am basically the old man at this point. their 2016 was my 2004, when i was super green to it all and thinking no way in hell could my guy lose.
 
I have no problem with people wanting to protest and have their voices heard, but you shut the fuck up when the First Lady is speaking. Pieces of trash. Got to go. I do actually blame Bernie for his shit delegate selection. But whatever, onwards and upwards! Looking forward to Bill Clinton tonight. He owned 2012. I'm really just slightly nervous the booing will distract him and he'll either go off message or literally die.
 
this is bill clinton's last chance to get back into the white house (i don't mean that in a really negative 'he'll-actually-be-president' way, but more like... a nostalgic way). i'm thinking he'll bring the fire like we haven't seen yet.
 
Well looks like r/S4P will be shutting down following the convention. That place has gotten so toxic the past few months with conspiracies and venom against the DNC.
 
Y2Kev said:
I have no problem with people wanting to protest and have their voices heard, but you shut the fuck up when the First Lady is speaking. Pieces of trash. Got to go. I do actually blame Bernie for his shit delegate selection. But whatever, onwards and upwards! Looking forward to Bill Clinton tonight. He owned 2012. I'm really just slightly nervous the booing will distract him and he'll either go off message or literally die.
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That's the big issue. The booing is not going to stop no matter what. Bernie convinced these people that the election was rigged.
 
cartoon_soldier said:
That's the big issue. The booing is not going to stop no matter what. Bernie convinced these people that the election was rigged.
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I'm hoping either they don't show up or they get swapped out. Lol. Though I'm pretty sure the role call is going to kick the bee's nest again.
 
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