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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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It's actually an improvement. Don't worry, my little one.
well if you watched it and i watched it then that's at least two. that's how it works right.
more seriously, rnc's night 3 was 22.81m, which was more than double their night 2. not sure why though. the god damn president was speaking though so i think there will be numbers on the dem side.
not sure about night 4 though. 32.2m looks like a pretty tough number to beat. dnc final night in 2012 was 27.63m viewers.
I can easily see Ginsburg and Kennedy stepping down in the next 4 years. Breyer is a possibility too. Plus Scalia's seat is still vacant. We are talking 2-4 justices here. This election is huge.
Improvement from what? OR shouldn't even be close. Has to be a shitty pollster
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
They even went to great lengths to NOT criticize the Republican Party and instead they painted it as some sort of weird Trumpian aberration.
Also downplaying usual campaign rhetoric "yeah we always say the other party is the devil, but this time it's for real."
Also: when Hillary came out to greet Obama. That might've been the happiest and loosest I've ever seen her. I wonder how many people who think of her as a cynical robot saw a completely different side of her.
Hillary only up by 3 in Oregon 
Thing is though, none of these polls add up to anywhere near 100% right now and I definitely vibe that pretty much the entire "undecided" portion is people who are withholding their support from Clinton right now, or haven't been convinced to vote for Clinton yet, but....probably will do so.
I dunno, I know Trump has his fans, but it's hard to imagine anyone refusing to get behind Trump for alllllll of the last year+ but then being like "actually, okay, TRUMP!!!!" now (or in August, or September, or October, etc.)
Also I don't care what anybody says, those third party numbers aren't going to hold up this high. Everyone is playing "look at me, I defy the two-party system, maaaaaan" right now but it won't last forever. Johnson and Stein combined didn't get 1.5% of the vote in 2012. Will it be higher this year? Yes. But I doubt it's gonna be 15%.
Thing is though, none of these polls add up to anywhere near 100% right now and I definitely vibe that pretty much the entire "undecided" portion is people who are withholding their support from Clinton right now, or haven't been convinced to vote for Clinton yet, but....probably will do so.
I dunno, I know Trump has his fans, but it's hard to imagine anyone refusing to get behind Trump for alllllll of the last year+ but then being like "actually, okay, TRUMP!!!!" now (or in August, or September, or October, etc.)
Also I don't care what anybody says, those third party numbers aren't going to hold up this high. Everyone is playing "look at me, I defy the two-party system, maaaaaan" right now but it won't last forever. Johnson and Stein combined didn't get 1.5% of the vote in 2012. Will it be higher this year? Yes. But I doubt it's gonna be 15%.
It's a call back to Bills statement in his amazing 2012 speech. Bill used a key line in that speech that basically said the same - no president,t not even him, could have fixed the damage from 2008 in one term. Obama borrowed his language to pay him back.
ah i wasn't aware of that! i was actually trying to read bill's lips though when he stands up and applauds.
Because no one wants to spend money polling Oregon besides some hacks
User 463088
Banned
No one is doing state polls right now. The money would be bettebeused throwing it into a shredder. You'll get a ton of polls this time next week. Don't you worry!
Hello, cousin. Search trends are looking quite favorable for Dems. Not sure how much that matters but it has to be doing some good.
nature boy
Member
Chill, just posting them for the snapshot.
Trump isn't 16 points behind Clinton in CA, or 3 in OR.
Let the moderates come home.
i can't believe i'm letting poll-madness take me a third presidential election cycle in a row.
are pollsters waiting for the dnc to finish or something? the la times/usc poll has had trump in the lead for the last two weeks. i don't understand how hrc just isn't crushing it.
edit: oh god now i remember this usc poll from last time - it's the one where i lost it and started making graphs and shit.
are pollsters waiting for the dnc to finish or something? the la times/usc poll has had trump in the lead for the last two weeks. i don't understand how hrc just isn't crushing it.
edit: oh god now i remember this usc poll from last time - it's the one where i lost it and started making graphs and shit.
User 463088
Banned
Fast nationals are in after 11am EST. Check Tvbythenumbers
shinra-bansho
Member
Reading an article about Trump vs Bloomberg...
Wut.
Wut.
No, but seriously wut.
J_ToSaveTheDay
Member
GAF, I almost started a new thread to kind of get this out there and hopefully get some input back, but I feel like this is a better place.
Politically, I'm pretty damn ignorant, and with the rise of the Trump candidacy on the Republican side, I feel like I had a pretty big and intense fire lit under my ass to get out and vote -- to prevent a Trump victory, not to enable it.
Growing up, neither of my parents nor many of my adult mentors exerted any obvious political alignments, so I never really adopted anything super identifiable as political. I did, however, grow up in a largely conservative voting neighborhood, but while there was never really any obvious calls to action or open endorsement of any particular candidate, those types of values were still kind of the visible norm. I don't think anything was overtly political for me growing up, but I do feel like my education provided at least a fundamental basis in reinforcing notions that all people are created equal, etc...
That led me to participate in a lot of behaviors I don't feel proud of nowadays. I held homophobic views based on nothing more than not knowing many members of LGBTQ and mystified, negatively-connotated notions about sex as an act of deviance. My first encounter with any type of LGBTQ person was when a long-time, close friend of mine came out as bisexual just as we were transitioning into high school, and my reaction at the time was to slowly avoid him, a move that I regret because I saw the way that it isolated him from everyone, and he very visibly went through a very tough period with his family, with me and the rest of our friends, and I saw him eventually go through some really hard mental health problems. I think it absolutely sucks that that was one of my major life lessons about acceptance of LGBTQ. He and I are still friends, and he's in a much better place mentally, but the fact that I had a hand in his suffering for some time is likely never to let me conscience be fully at ease. I also objectified women in a lot of ways I'm not proud of, though luckily most girls in high school were smart and avoided a person like me like crazy so I didn't have to actively hurt someone to learn about that, either. I really wish I had had the wisdom and foresight to be better when I was younger, but them's the brakes, that's the crap reality I have to live with about myself, but I'm determined to at the very least remain open to changing my perspective.
While my perspective did eventually change as I moved through college, I've yet to really actually get involved in actively doing any real political legwork. Obama's first bid for president was the first election I was old enough to vote in, and I was really inspired by Obama to get my vote in for him. I didn't show up again in 2012, though.
At best, I'll occasionally hit up a place like GAF and throw in to call out racism, sexism, and homophobia. I put up a fight on my Facebook feed a lot when I see something I don't agree with, and that usually goes pretty civil -- I tend not to exert my political views openly on a frequent basis, so I suppose the impression I leave on people completely outside of the political realm kind of makes them less combative with me. I tend to be pretty easy-going and tolerant, but if something really rubs me the wrong way, I'll call it out (non-combatively).
But this election cycle doesn't really have me budging or questioning liberal views. It has me wondering if I'm actually doing enough with my own life to actually make a difference. I feel like a big factor in Trump's success so far has perhaps been in large part due to complacent types like myself, but at the same time I doubt my actual pool of wisdom and knowledge when it comes to rightfully acting on the principles of contemporary American liberalism. That is to say, I fear that my entire life is so woefully behind on any political consciousness that I'm uncertain where I might step in so that I might actually get qualified to stand for the political platform with grace and not just basically be an armchair political talking head.
So, following that massive (and incomplete) background story, a few questions for fellow GAF:
1) Did you have to go through any sort of experiences to shift you to your political beliefs now? Or was it sort of just inherited from mentors growing up?
2) For those of you that are more politically involved, what kind of things did you go through to get there? I remember hearing stories from some politically involved college professors about particular life experiences that motivated them to step up, but nothing so simple as fear of a particular candidate threatening their ideals of the country -- usually far more intimate experiences.
3) Any of you found a way to cope with being surrounded by people that openly oppose your political views? I work in law enforcement as a police dispatcher, it's a very conservative environment. I really respect and admire the police's role in contemporary society (the "protect & serve" ideal), but I feel like the tone of discourse will lead to my social estrangement if I speak up. Dallas shootings in particular got me all torn up, as I am sympathetic to Black Lives Matter, but I also don't want cops to lose positive connections with their communities. Publicly, my agency has largely been silent, but privately many of my coworkers here in this agency are very adamant Blue Lives Matter stancers.
EDIT: sorry if anything here is incoherent, kind of typed it out in different mini sessions and didn't make much of an effort to edit -- typed it out in bouts of downtime at work.
Politically, I'm pretty damn ignorant, and with the rise of the Trump candidacy on the Republican side, I feel like I had a pretty big and intense fire lit under my ass to get out and vote -- to prevent a Trump victory, not to enable it.
Growing up, neither of my parents nor many of my adult mentors exerted any obvious political alignments, so I never really adopted anything super identifiable as political. I did, however, grow up in a largely conservative voting neighborhood, but while there was never really any obvious calls to action or open endorsement of any particular candidate, those types of values were still kind of the visible norm. I don't think anything was overtly political for me growing up, but I do feel like my education provided at least a fundamental basis in reinforcing notions that all people are created equal, etc...
That led me to participate in a lot of behaviors I don't feel proud of nowadays. I held homophobic views based on nothing more than not knowing many members of LGBTQ and mystified, negatively-connotated notions about sex as an act of deviance. My first encounter with any type of LGBTQ person was when a long-time, close friend of mine came out as bisexual just as we were transitioning into high school, and my reaction at the time was to slowly avoid him, a move that I regret because I saw the way that it isolated him from everyone, and he very visibly went through a very tough period with his family, with me and the rest of our friends, and I saw him eventually go through some really hard mental health problems. I think it absolutely sucks that that was one of my major life lessons about acceptance of LGBTQ. He and I are still friends, and he's in a much better place mentally, but the fact that I had a hand in his suffering for some time is likely never to let me conscience be fully at ease. I also objectified women in a lot of ways I'm not proud of, though luckily most girls in high school were smart and avoided a person like me like crazy so I didn't have to actively hurt someone to learn about that, either. I really wish I had had the wisdom and foresight to be better when I was younger, but them's the brakes, that's the crap reality I have to live with about myself, but I'm determined to at the very least remain open to changing my perspective.
While my perspective did eventually change as I moved through college, I've yet to really actually get involved in actively doing any real political legwork. Obama's first bid for president was the first election I was old enough to vote in, and I was really inspired by Obama to get my vote in for him. I didn't show up again in 2012, though.
At best, I'll occasionally hit up a place like GAF and throw in to call out racism, sexism, and homophobia. I put up a fight on my Facebook feed a lot when I see something I don't agree with, and that usually goes pretty civil -- I tend not to exert my political views openly on a frequent basis, so I suppose the impression I leave on people completely outside of the political realm kind of makes them less combative with me. I tend to be pretty easy-going and tolerant, but if something really rubs me the wrong way, I'll call it out (non-combatively).
But this election cycle doesn't really have me budging or questioning liberal views. It has me wondering if I'm actually doing enough with my own life to actually make a difference. I feel like a big factor in Trump's success so far has perhaps been in large part due to complacent types like myself, but at the same time I doubt my actual pool of wisdom and knowledge when it comes to rightfully acting on the principles of contemporary American liberalism. That is to say, I fear that my entire life is so woefully behind on any political consciousness that I'm uncertain where I might step in so that I might actually get qualified to stand for the political platform with grace and not just basically be an armchair political talking head.
So, following that massive (and incomplete) background story, a few questions for fellow GAF:
1) Did you have to go through any sort of experiences to shift you to your political beliefs now? Or was it sort of just inherited from mentors growing up?
2) For those of you that are more politically involved, what kind of things did you go through to get there? I remember hearing stories from some politically involved college professors about particular life experiences that motivated them to step up, but nothing so simple as fear of a particular candidate threatening their ideals of the country -- usually far more intimate experiences.
3) Any of you found a way to cope with being surrounded by people that openly oppose your political views? I work in law enforcement as a police dispatcher, it's a very conservative environment. I really respect and admire the police's role in contemporary society (the "protect & serve" ideal), but I feel like the tone of discourse will lead to my social estrangement if I speak up. Dallas shootings in particular got me all torn up, as I am sympathetic to Black Lives Matter, but I also don't want cops to lose positive connections with their communities. Publicly, my agency has largely been silent, but privately many of my coworkers here in this agency are very adamant Blue Lives Matter stancers.
EDIT: sorry if anything here is incoherent, kind of typed it out in different mini sessions and didn't make much of an effort to edit -- typed it out in bouts of downtime at work.
plagiarize
Banned
We know polling right now isn't very predictive. Like Adam said, it's like throwing money into a shredder.
OMG Adam I need ratings!!! Per morning Joe, the election is lost because trump held a rally in Scranton so we need to feel good with ratings
Yeah basically no one cares about the Scranton rally. Huge crowd blah blah. Didn't do a thing for him since he vomited all over himself yesterday
Biden will stare everyone in that city down and nobody will vote for Trump.
My family (especially my father) were pretty conservative. I inherited a lot of their views, but as I got older, went through college, and lived on my own I started to form my own views, and have found myself very far left of where I started. I'm still evolving my political views; this election has shown me that I had really underestimated the amount of racism still in the US.
People I work with are fairly liberal, which is nice. I struggle a lot more with my family; I got into a text battle with my brother-in-law yesterday. I eventually had to tell him to stop texting me during work hours, I was too worked up to focus on my job.
Link
The Autumn Wind
He's disgusting. A racist piece of shit.
Roland_Gunner
Member
In a Presidential election seven points is a ton. Its almost what McCain lost by in 2008 when the world was ending. Barring another serious recession its almost impossible to make that up.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
He'll go in on Hillary's speech tomorrow and the diablosy order of the universe will be restored, don't worry.
Veritigo_X
Member
I think the only thing the right is going to say about Hillary's speech is that she didn't get as big of an applause as Obama or Bernie. Dems in disarray! No one likes the nominee!
It's like whiplash with this guy.
And seeing Mika get a bit emotional there (when she was openly questioning whether Trump actually loves this country) makes me wonder if we'll see someone else get emotional tonight..
The Lamonster
Member
What are they saying? Post some!
nature boy
Member
Rassssss:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
Wang going in on 538. Love it.
Twat:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
Wang going in on 538. Love it.
Twat:
cartoon_soldier
Member
Rassssss:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch
Wang going in on 538. Love it.
Twat:
Wang link?
balladofwindfishes
Member
Ras had a chance to show Trump at +10 and they show it as a tie lol
I am lucky in the sense that I grew up in a non-religious household, in a diverse city, attended a diverse school, and was generally left alone to develop my own ideas and personal philosophy as I pleased. If you're surrounded by conservative people and beliefs, it's not so unusual to end up conservative.
We're all different individuals, don't need to have the same experience wanting to become more politically involved. In my MMO guild there was this guy, a 30-something minority working as a doctor in Florida, when we first played together he said he didn't care about voting and never voted. In the last year he had a baby girl, he followed some of the crazy news about Trump, and I knew something was different when he asked when the primaries were going to happen in Florida. Sometimes it can take that long, or take something else for one to think about the future. In America where the turnout is low, sometimes even doing the basic duty of voting can be helpful.
Check to make sure you're still registered to vote (sometimes for a long period of inactivity, states purge voters because people do pass away, this varies from state to state), vote every year however big or small, and look into the politics of your local community.
I think if you think your surroundings are too far in the opposite direction to yourself, you can probably work from what's common between you and your coworkers and push from there. While avoiding what you think might be triggers that would inhibit cooperation and understanding. The key here would be to endure, but also to strive forward in the direction you believe is right. You might just have to be less open about it. I can't say for sure this kind of thing would work, but I think you can best feel out what you can reasonably do. Expecting unrealistic changes in people's hearts over a short period of time is not so good.
Apparently some people got mad that Bradley Cooper was at the DNC and it turned out he was a Democrat. lol All because of American Sniper.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Starting to think Ras is just interested in trolling.
nature boy
Member
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Does it seem like a lot of people and even the media are hearing that "don't boo, vote" line for the first time?
bangbang i'm a timpani
Banned
ras has a stupid bias but they get the moves right. showed transition to trump before everyone. this will indicate a transition to clinton this week.
RAS sucks completely.
Viewership of the conventions is in the millions, compared to Obama using that line in a speech that probably only ended up online.
Most likely, I know it seemed like most people watching the speech in the off-topic thread were hearing it for the first time. At one point there was an entire page of reactions to that one line
It seems like a lot of people around here heard it for the first time but I don't know about the media.
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