theprodigy
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If you dislike 538 so much why do you make threads about them.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
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If you dislike 538 so much why do you make threads about them.
I wonder why. What else was overwhelmingly supported by young people and not much else?
I wonder if even half of the support group could name an actual law she "broke" to deserve imprisonment.
My guess is 20% could, and that's me being generous.
shinra-bansho
Member
Stop making dumb threads about Nate Silver's shit model.
The internet generation. Too busy reading shit from Tumblr, Reddit, and 4chan.
RustyNails
Member
He's a writer for The Atlantic.
Also, gary whitta has been going full bore on trump too. Wonder if he's still on gaf.
DataStream
Member
Further response by Khan (sorry if was posted):
I've Nates was abit of a doofus in the past for ignoring Trump...However the interesting thing about Nates current map it falls inline with pretty much with how I have been seeing things unfold personally on and offline, down to NH turning red as I mentioned for a bit now.
The problem Hillary is having is there is a large swath of people who are simply not willing to listen or look at her seriously. These folks actively look for reasons to find things against her (as many here on gaf do towrds the gop, etc.) while at the same time finding ways to refute anti trump sentiment as illegitimate. As someone who voted Bernie and will be voting Hillary, I do still think Bernie would have done better against Trump than Hillary. NH went in hard for Bernie, lots of folks from the entire political spectrum were feeling the bern here.
This goes back to the Trump or Bernie argument I made months back. Now I see people who voted obama twice voting trump. Yes its crazy, not logical, etc. But that is fucking reality.
There is a legit shot Trump is going to win and who the fuck knows whats going to happen. Trump is a black swan statistically and in other political ways.
The problem Hillary is having is there is a large swath of people who are simply not willing to listen or look at her seriously. These folks actively look for reasons to find things against her (as many here on gaf do towrds the gop, etc.) while at the same time finding ways to refute anti trump sentiment as illegitimate. As someone who voted Bernie and will be voting Hillary, I do still think Bernie would have done better against Trump than Hillary. NH went in hard for Bernie, lots of folks from the entire political spectrum were feeling the bern here.
This goes back to the Trump or Bernie argument I made months back. Now I see people who voted obama twice voting trump. Yes its crazy, not logical, etc. But that is fucking reality.
There is a legit shot Trump is going to win and who the fuck knows whats going to happen. Trump is a black swan statistically and in other political ways.
RustyNails
Member
NH can feel the bern in their ass all night long. They need to get over it. Hillary won the nomination. Their voice is not louder or more precious than the voice of Florida or any countless southern states where Bernie was utterly destroyed. They're only what, 3 electoral votes? ok.
User 463088
Banned
Following your logic, Bernie would have done great in NH, but managed to lose Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina by huge margins.
That's now how any of this works.
NH isn't really representative of the nation as a whole though. Also, he never really got the vetting from the press, or his opponent, that a serious candidate gets.
Hell, of the half-dozen or so models out there 538 is saying something different than everyone else.
shinra-bansho
Member
No one cares about New Hampshire.
Coriolanus
Banned
"his words are typical of a person without a soul" is a pretty good universal counter, tbh.
User 463088
Banned
Also, 538's Polls Only is now 50/50.
We good?
We good?
RustyNails
Member
Ban New Hampshire
Banish 538 and Nate Silver to New Hampshire
My respect for the man continues to grow. He could easily go on a Trump bashing spree and no one would bat an eye. This man is the definition of taking the high road. The composure he is showing is amazing.Further response by Khan (sorry if was posted):
So what your saying is that dems in those states wouldnt or shouldnt have fell in line and voted bernie and would have voted trump or not voted if the presidential contest was trump vs bernie?
Because basically people in many states are voting hillary not because they like her but simply because shes the only dem option unless they want to flip and vote trump...
My point about bernie was more that bernie had a batter chance of winning people over if he was the only dem option compared to hillary. Hillary has a lot of baggage and I think is a harder sell to those who dont already support her.
User 463088
Banned
Hahahaha
The RABA People that have Hillary +15 nationally? Released a poll done in the middle of a convention (WTF?) of Virginia showing Trump ahead by 4.
The RABA People that have Hillary +15 nationally? Released a poll done in the middle of a convention (WTF?) of Virginia showing Trump ahead by 4.
Basileus777
Member
The only scenario where New Hampshire matters is one where Trump wins NH/NV/FL/OH/IA and forces a tie. I won't be losing sleep over that possibility.
User 463088
Banned
Bernie couldn't win enough people over to win the Democratic primary! His support among the traditional Democratic voting blocks wasn't great. You're building up Bernie into this amazing transformative candidate when he really wasn't. You ignore that Hillary is going to do better among women and (I would argue) PoC than Bernie probably would have. While this is partially speculation, it's based on trends during the primaries.
But, no. What I'm saying is Bernie lost. He's going back to Vermont as an Independent. Whatever theoretical election may have happened is irrelevant because, again, he lost!
I could sit here and argue that Bernie would have lost in a landslide running against Rubio or Jeb! or Barbie. It has as much basis in reality and relevance as arguing over who would do better in NH. Especially when NH is like, literally, the most unimportant swing state ever this year. I can't think of a swing state that's electorally worth less, to be honest.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
CNN had a poll before the DNC that showed Trump with 80% of the white evangelical vote, this comes two weeks after PEW had him around 80% as well.
Trump is going to end up with the highest white evangelical vote share in political history while being less significantly less religious than Hillary and... almost every candidate for president post Abe Lincoln?
Trump is going to end up with the highest white evangelical vote share in political history while being less significantly less religious than Hillary and... almost every candidate for president post Abe Lincoln?
maybe they believe he'll finally bring about the end times.
I'm pretty sure it's straight-up impossible for both of these numbers to be simultaneously true, unless half the black population of Virginia dropped dead at some point without my knowledge.
eBay Huckster
Member
so what you're saying is she's really up by 25
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump as the Antichrist is probably the most believable thing white evangelicals have come up with in a while.
Trump has a lot of the same qualities as the Antichrist.
But then again, so does the Dilbert Guy.
My point about nh is more about the trends it may show. You have a state that voted heavy for a candidate like bernie and voted obama twice yet is showing stronger and stronger signs of trump building momentum and flipping the state, right after such a strong push for bernie. You can ignore that and say it means nothing. To me thats like being a little a kid covering his eyes during a scary movie.
While FL I think has the best record of presidential prediction in the GE the last 10 years, though I'm not 100% sure (9 out of the last 10 winners in the GE in FL win) NH is a greater predictor than a good chunk of states (8 out of 10 in GE).
Yeah, I mean, this is well put.
If there really were a bunch of Democratic voters that weren't willing to vote for Hillary but were willing to vote for Bernie, presumably Bernie would have won the primary.
User 463088
Banned
They've released a total of like 4 polls ever.
The only one for an election that has actually happened was the Missouri primary poll. It had it at 44/40 Queen. Otherwise, it's just two national polls, an Ohio poll and a Virginia poll. They don't release numbers based on race, only on gender. The VA poll has Trump winning 51% of 18-29 year olds. Hillary gets 38%. It's all weird. But Nate's model loves it!
The only one for an election that has actually happened was the Missouri primary poll. It had it at 44/40 Queen. Otherwise, it's just two national polls, an Ohio poll and a Virginia poll. They don't release numbers based on race, only on gender. The VA poll has Trump winning 51% of 18-29 year olds. Hillary gets 38%. It's all weird. But Nate's model loves it!
NH is not a predictor of any kind. It's not representative of the nation as a whole either. It's literally one of the whitest states in the US. The coalition the Dems need to create to win is incredibly diverse. Besides, so long as swing states the remain as 2012 the same all Hillary needs are Virginia and Florida.
User 463088
Banned
But, again, no.
Issue the first: NH is not representative of the nation as a whole. It's 93% white! Trump's entire coalition is white people. There is little to no diversity in the state. It, like Iowa, are the two swing states we would expect to lean more heavily towards Trump than large, diverse states like Virginia, Florida or North Carolina.
Also, in 2008, NH voted for Hillary and not Obama. Obama went on to win the nomination, the state and the Presidency. Primary results are not always indicative of a state's potential to vote one way or another in the GE.
Finally, your argument is that Bernie was the better choice because he helped in one particular state that is worth fewer electoral votes than every other swing state. This doesn't make sense. Hillary was far, far stronger in states like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Arizona and Georgia. To throw that advantage away because New Hampshire isn't great strategy to me. (And those advantages carry over because the only way we win those states are with the Obama/Clinton coalition...NOT the Bernie one.)
User 463088
Banned
OMG I love him so much.
I want video.
I need video of this.
edit:
found this old tweet from 2012:
Melli H. ‏@mellijellybean 6 Nov 2012
Tim Kaine just requested Old Crow Medicine Show's 'Wagon Wheel' on the Charlottesville radio station. Maybe he should get my vote now.
The OCMS version. Now I KNOW he was the right choice. Hot damn.
eBay Huckster
Member
wait, there's another version of that song?
RustyNails
Member
I just realized, Trump thinks making sacrifices is the same thing as having positive effects on society. Like, the net effect of both is greater good, right? Same thing!
He thinks hiring people and donating money to charity is the ticket to get him out of that question. He truly proved the father's words and more. He has not only not sacrificed anything, he doesn't even know it's meaning.
He thinks hiring people and donating money to charity is the ticket to get him out of that question. He truly proved the father's words and more. He has not only not sacrificed anything, he doesn't even know it's meaning.
User 463088
Banned
He also hasn't donated anything to anyone really. Not to the levels his wealth dictates.
Also, my bf's nephews played Call of Duty while we were gone. My KD is gone.
Lets also not forget that he hires basically foreigners to do work, while promising to create jobs for the very people he has been instrumental in not giving jobs to. The small businesses he does work with, he doesn't pay them, or pays them less than was originally agreed upon.
If Trump has sacrificed anything, it's his dignity. You can be a businessman and a billionaire and still be a good person. Trump is only one of those 3 things, and even then, just barely.
googleplex
Member
Is this the guy Bernie bros were calling a disastrous pick after he was announced?
Just goes to shows what happens when The Queen thoroughly vets someone and picks the right person based on qualifications and not if they're "Sexy"
Thequietone
Member
He also hasn't donated anything to anyone really. Not to the levels his wealth dictates.
Also, my bf's nephews played Call of Duty while we were gone. My KD is gone.
IDK what my KD is on BLOPS 2 WiiU I only care if I have fun. Like my AGR dropping on to a random enemy and getting a kill, a quad C4 kill because the team were idiots trying to glitch off the map, or sniping a sniper across the map with an assault rifle while drunk. These are my favorite memories.
Beer Monkey
Member
For a fun examination of how evangelicals can go through mental gymnastics to rationalize supporting Trump, see the Rapture Ready bulletin board.
User 463088
Banned
Ya, I mostly don't care. But they know they're now allowed to play CoD. They're allowed to play Splatoon, but that's it for shooters. For me, a huge memory is if I win a match on Nuketown. Or the 40-0 I had a fwe weeks ago.
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