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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Bowdz said:
I posted it yesterday, but McAuliffe should appoint Khan as Kaine's Senate replacement in VA. The more I hear from Khan, the more impressed I become.
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No. The guy has no experience. We shouldn't be making appointments on their ability to troll people
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
52-43 CNN poll
Click to expand...

Chi said:
CNN Poll
Post-Democratic Convention

Clinton 52
Trump 43

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeddyDavisCNN/status/760218359891947520?p=v
Click to expand...

giphy.gif
 
A

avaya

Member
Random17 said:
Nah, she's a very easy target, and without House control, the Democrats are screwed in terms of policy, while still bearing the responsibility for the direction of the country.

In the long term it is only inevitable that a GOP president will return for this reason alone. GOP is trying their damned hardest to make sure it's long term, though lol.
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I don't see how this is possible. Demographics are obvious, the old world is no more on high-turnout elections such as the the General. African-American turnout is impressively high, that community has finally realised it can seriously impact elections. Hispanic turnout has only one way to go and that's up. Non-college educated white males are declining in share of population. Red states are being turned purple.

The Dems are on the verge of being recession-proof on the Presidential level. The Blue wall is likely over 270 EV given Virginia coming into the fold and PA being fools gold. The paths to victory are large and varied with an electorate turning Democrat +1.2% every 4 years. It's an unstoppable train. The SCOTUS should be able to start fighting back against the gerrymandering from 2017/18 in time for 2020.

The only thing Democrats need to fear is turnout. The Republican party is finished on the Presidential level as long as Democrats have a competent GOTV plan. In low-level races on low turnout, their old reliable base will come out but they just get swamped at the national level. These are the death throes of the Southern Strategy with a more inelastic electorate as a whole till the climate normalises when the R's start running for the true center (a hard ask given they will almost certainly face backlash from the 30% racist base).

For 2020 the GOP is utterly fucked. The will again go down the "not conservative enough" path for the rabid base. Their position with Hispanics are likely torched for 2-3cycles at least (in which time the Blue Wall could well be 300+ EV)
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Chi said:
CNN Poll
Post-Democratic Convention

Clinton 52
Trump 43

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeddyDavisCNN/status/760218359891947520?p=v
Click to expand...

That's a 12 point bounce, not 7. Had Trump +3 before.

Of course bounces are just response rates.

But it's pretty clear that Clinton's numbers seemed to have recover to around pre-FBI stuff.

Which is pretty fucking bad for Trump.

And maybe this can keep getting worse thanks to the Khans.


Silver's Now-Cast is going to move pretty big for Hillary soon!
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
adam387 said:
But, you have to defend it because you can't afford to lose it. Like, if you let Hillary run unchecked...and she manages it...but you successfully defend NC, you're still fucked. Obviously, I don't think Trump has the resources to defend it, but you can't just look at state that's a lot closer than it should be and shrug and hope for the best.

I mean, I agree, in a world in which he loses Georgia, the race is called at 11:00pm, but still.
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I mean a world where he loses Georgia is probably a world where he basically gives up before the election occurs and preemptively declares it rigged.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Where's the terrible OT thread about how Hillary is hugely in the lead again?

Or do we only do those when Trump is leading?
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
pigeon said:
Where's the terrible OT thread about how Hillary is hugely in the lead again?

Or do we only do those when Trump is leading?
Click to expand...

People can't diablos to news about Hillary leading
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
She's +8 in the 4 way race.

Looks like people are starting to drift from "maybe I'll vote 3rd party" to "nope, Trump is too dangerous."

edit: or maybe not. Seems the percentages are still high for 3rd party.


Also, what does it say that when people see 4 choices, they're more likely to not pick Trump/Clinton than if there is just "other?"
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Black Mamba said:
She's +8 in the 4 way race.

Looks like people are starting to drift from "maybe I'll vote 3rd party" to "nope, Trump is too dangerous."

edit: or maybe not. Seems the percentages are still high for 3rd party.


Also, what does it say that when people see 4 choices, they're more likely to not pick Trump/Clinton than if there is just "other?"
Click to expand...

Those Johnson voters are people who aren't voting.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Kev, post if you're okay.

Nate CohnVerified account
‏@Nate_Cohn
Keys in CNN poll: Clinton at 91% with Sanders voters, 82% among nonwhite voters, up 65-32% among voters under age 45, up 10 pts w white col+

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
Clinton still weak with white working class voters in CNN poll: Trump up 60-34, better than Rom. in 2012 polls. But not nearly enough
Click to expand...
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Kusagari said:
Going off how much Hill's lead drops in the 4 way I'd guess a lot are Bernie supporters switching to Jill.
Click to expand...

They're coming around and they'll continue to come around. Stein consistently saying looney things doesn't work the way it does for Trump.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Hopefully this bounce is durable - a lot of it seems to come from people who were willing to back Clinton before the email controversy made its way back into the spotlight. Just keep them permanently on Team Clinton.

I mean does anyone really expect the debates to be anything but an unmitigated disaster for Trump?
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Aaron Strife said:
Hopefully this bounce is durable - a lot of it seems to come from people who were willing to back Clinton before the email controversy made its way back into the spotlight. Just keep them permanently on Team Clinton.

I mean does anyone really expect the debates to be anything but an unmitigated disaster for Trump?
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Bounces are almost never durable. We'll be back around to diablosing by Sept. 1.

I would not be surprised if Trump backs out; he's already laying the groundwork to just not do them. I suspect he will show up and then just get annihilated, of course. He doesn't know anything about politics and spewing pablum doesn't work on that stage.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
ampere said:
John Lewis got this :D

Except Atlanta is going to lean Hillary already, I have no idea who you send to bumblefuck hicksville parts of Georgia
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No one. You win Georgie by driving up urban turnout and winning over college educated whites and women in the suburbs.
 
A

ampere

Member
adam387 said:
CNN 2 Way

Queen 52 (Was 45)
Trump 43 (Was 48)

CNN 3 Way

Queen 45 (Was 39)
Trump 37 (Was 44)
Johnson 9 (Was 9)
Wacky Jill 5 (was 3)
Click to expand...

Can voters stop lying and saying they're voting for Johnson and Stein? We know the real numbers are going to be more like 1% and 0.2%, unless you're talking about a state with a lot of hard anti-Trump Mormons
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Angry Grimace said:
Bounces are almost never durable. We'll be back around to diablosing by Sept. 1.

I would not be surprised if Trump backs out; he's already laying the groundwork to just not do them. I suspect he will show up and then just get annihilated, of course. He doesn't know anything about politics and spewing pablum doesn't work on that stage.
Click to expand...
IIRC Obama retained much of his DNC bounce in 2012 until the first debate.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
There are some good things in that CNN Poll!

Do you think the policies being proposed by Donald Trump will move the country in the right
direction or the wrong direction?

Right: 38
Wrong: 59

Do you think the policies being proposed by Hillary Clinton will move the country in the right direction or the wrong direction?

Right: 48
Wrong: 50

Has Right Experience to be President
Hillary: 67% Applies, 32% Doesn't apply
Trump: 31% Applies, 68% Doesn't Apply

Will United the Country
Hillary: Will 48%; Will Not 51%
Trump: Will 33%, Will Not 66%

They're now tied in the "Honest and Trustworthy" category at 34/64

Did the convention make you more or less likely to vote DEM
49% More, 39% Less

On the GOP side, that was 42/44
 
R

Rubenov

Member
During the GOP primaries, last-minute deciders broke for anyone but Trump. I wonder if that phenomenon would transfer to the general. It could give an additional 1 - 2% for Hillary.
 
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