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[Black Mamba]

Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7% !

His favorable rating is single digits.

Let that sink in. Single. Fucking. Digits.

He's going to be Barry Goldwater but in stead of just AAs, it will be all minorities.

The Dems are going to get 90% of Asian-American, 95% African American, 80%+ Hispanic, 80%+ Jewish, 90%+ Muslim,and shit, probably 30%+ Mormon (yes, they're white but they're a specific religious minority politically and rarely vote Democrat).

This is pretty amazing stuff.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Not good enough. Trump must not only lose but be destroyed so hard that his father retroactively disowns him. This loss needs to transcend spacetime.

This isn't 1988 or 1992. The biggest thing to a blowout you're going to get is short of Obama's 2008 rout.

 

[metalslimer]

Buffett going in on Trump must burn a fire in his soul

 

[Basileus777]

This isn't 1988 or 1992. The biggest thing to a blowout you're going to get is short of Obama's 2008 rout.

Not true. The best case scenario for Hillary is above the 365 EVs that Obama got in 08.

 

[BrokenFiction]

Buffett going in on Trump must burn a fire in his soul

HIllary loving it.

 

[Kusagari]

Hillary isn't going to win Indiana but she has both Utah and Georgia as possible flips right now that Obama didn't get in 08.

Arizona is looking less and less likely to me. No poll backs it up.

 

[RastaMentality]

Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7% !

His favorable rating is single digits.

Let that sink in. Single. Fucking. Digits.

White people need to get in on this.

 

[User 463088]

I made a thread because this is big news, and also because everyone makes one to shit on Queen!

 

[B-Dubs]

I just saw that CNN is doing another Libertarian town hall.

Jill must be seething. NOTICE ME!!!!

CNN would do a town hall with Harambe's corpse before Jill Stein, if only because he's beating her in the polls.

 

[Y2Kev]

Sounds like a job for wiki leaks

Take down Hillary, assange!

 

[User 463088]

CNN would do a town hall with Harambe's corpse before Jill Stein, if only because he's beating her in the polls.

That's shady af, but I laughed.

 

[Third Strike]

Hillary isn't going to win Indiana but she has both Utah and Georgia as possible flips right now that Obama didn't get in 08.

Arizona is looking less and less likely to me. No poll backs it up.

Is it possible that Hispanic Americans are under-sampled in the polls? I don't expect it to flip either, but hopefully the results are a lot closer than what's indicated in the polls.

 

[Crayons]

Why are people still talking about that dumb gorilla?

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Why are people still talking about that dumb gorilla?

Wow, watch your mouth. Harambe is a martyr.

 

[TheFatOne]

Man it just seems like bizarro world to me that the Democrats have become the party of patriotism. Still can't wrap my brain around it.

 

[Basileus777]

Why are people still talking about that dumb gorilla?

PPP with their meme polls.

 

[DataStream]

Buffet talked about income inequality at length.

 

[Goodstyle]

I wish Hillary would come up with a better response to the e-mail question that isn't just straight up lying. Thank God for Trump being a fucking idiot, this could have been a disaster.

 

[StopMakingSense]

zomg this sexual harassment quote from Trump.

 

[Crayons]

Wow, that was THIS year? May?

I thought that that happened more than a year ago.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

USC is the new Gallup, who were the new IBD/TIPP, who were the new Zogby.

 

[B-Dubs]

That's shady af, but I laughed.

Hey man, it's true. Don't shoot the messenger, don't shoot the messenger like they did Harambe.

 

[ampere]

I don't think its fair to say Nate Silver's model is bad on the basis that you don't understand how it works.

Now-cast is just click-bait. It's dumb

 

[User 463088]

Hey man, it's true. Don't shoot the messenger, don't shoot the messenger like they did Harambe.

Bro. Bro. I love you right now. Hahahaha

 

[Loudninja]

I don't think its fair to say Nate Silver's model is bad on the basis that you don't understand how it works.

Yes I am sure thta a model that swings 40 or so points in a short time is very reliable.

 

[B-Dubs]

Bro. Bro. I love you right now. Hahahaha

I gotta write this shit up and send it somewhere, this is glorious shit. Glorious just like Harambe before they shot him dead like some kind of rabid gorilla threatening a kid.

 

[ampere]

Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7% !

His favorable rating is single digits.

Let that sink in. Single. Fucking. Digits.

Somebody has to be fourth. He'll be the best fourth you ever saw, the greatest fourth. The first fourth.

 

[TopDreg]

I'm thinking about what would have happened if Bernie won the nomination. It would have been harder, arguably impossible, to make Democrats the party of patriotism. The attack by Khzir Khan wouldn't work so well. We wouldn't be able to effectively link Trump with Putin. We, instead, would be the party of 'communism'. Bloomberg wouldn't come on-stage to speak. We dodged a bullet, and instead harnessed a kryptonite suit.

 

[Teggy]

I need to be talked off the ledge with this one.

Michael Tracey ‏@mtracey 28m28 minutes ago
USC/LA Times poll consistently shows Trump with an outlier-ish lead https://election.usc.edu/ For what it's worth, they nailed 2012 pop vote

@teggygah 10m10 minutes ago
@mtracey This is the same methodology used in 2012?

Michael Tracey
‏@mtracey
@teggygah Maybe with some tweaks but yeah it's the same people

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Hey man, it's true. Don't shoot the messenger, don't shoot the messenger like they did Harambe.

You probably are going to hell for that one B-Dubs :jnc

 

[DataStream]

Buffet also talked about his site http://www.drive2vote.org/

Pledges to take 10 people who couldn't get to the polls to get there and setup this site to help people connect and assist people get out to vote. Goal of splitting the state's EV and getting the highest participation rate of any US district.

 

[B-Dubs]

You probably are going to hell for that one B-Dubs :jnc

Nah, this is the one sending me to hell:

I gotta write this shit up and send it somewhere, this is glorious shit. Glorious just like Harambe before they shot him dead like some kind of rabid gorilla threatening a kid.

 

[Crayons]

Whenever someone says something about how they aren't going to vote for Hillary because "They're both the same" I just want to fucking slap the shit out of them, oh my god.

It makes me so angry. Yes, we get it, you are going to stay home and let America turn into white nationalism: the country. And if Trump won you'd whine about it anyway despite NOT VOTING

I had another friend tell me today she wasn't going to vote because Bernie should've won and how Clinton is only winning because she's a woman and I''m like DO YOU HEAR YOURSELF?

 

[Oceanwind]

Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7% !

His favorable rating is single digits.

Let that sink in. Single. Fucking. Digits.

Wow, that's incredible. I wonder what his favorables are among non-white women. Maybe less than 5%?

 

[nature boy]

Heh, 538/nate getting a bit pissed on from the prediction guys

 

[Link]

Listening to Warren Buffett talking about driving people to the polls gave me an idea. Would it be allowed for the Clinton campaign to team up with Uber/Lyft and distribute free ride promo codes if you're going to a polling station?

 

[Black Mamba]

I need to be talked off the ledge with this one.

The so-called lead is there because it's mostly still part of the RNC bump. Their polling lags fully by 7 days.

We won't know til the weekend where their poll stands post DNC.

Also, these guys did RAND last time but RAND hasn't gone anywhere, they're still doing polling. These are some of the guys and the tweaks they did might have made it worse?

 

[eBay Huckster]

I need to be talked off the ledge with this one.

gonna call bullshit on that phrasing, given that the only usc/la times poll i can find from 2012 was in mid-august and it was 2 points off

what they mean is they did RAND, but even then it's not the same methodology

 

[TheFatOne]

Heh, 538/nate getting a bit pissed on from the prediction guys

link?

 

[mo60]

Hillary isn't going to win Indiana but she has both Utah and Georgia as possible flips right now that Obama didn't get in 08.

Arizona is looking less and less likely to me. No poll backs it up.

I wouldn't count out Indiana just yet because if it looks like trump is going to do really awful in the midwest on election day and Pence has issues appealing to people in that state because people really hate him I can see hilary winning that state by 1%-3%.

 

[MassiveNights]

Well, the Now-Cast sure is acting wildly :

It's designed to act wildly (for better or worse)

 

[Fragamemnon]

Now-cast always felt like something to catch red flags in their model when now-cast and polls-plus failed to start converging in October. Everything was fine until someone at Buzzfeed saw it on a monitor while eating pizza with Nate and went "you should probably share that with people", unleashing horrors to social media unknown to myth or legend.

 

[MassiveNights]

Now-cast always felt like something to catch red flags in their model when now-cast and polls-plus failed to start converging in October. Everything was fine until someone at Buzzfeed saw it on a monitor while eating pizza with Nate and went "you should probably share that with people", unleashing horrors to social media unknown to myth or legend.

Agree it's a mistake.

It's also worth saying that the polls-plus model has been pretty consistent throughout but is now widening, that's the one to watch on 538.

Don't really get the 538 hate, I think their coverage has been excellent. Have especially enjoyed the podcasts.

But of course it's better to visit lots of sites and not just one.

 

[KMS]

zomg this sexual harassment quote from Trump.

Yeah... the women being harassed should be the one to find a new job. Would Trump tell a woman raped walking home at night to take a cab next time instead?

 

[nature boy]

link?

David Rothschild ‏@DavMicRot 15m15 minutes ago
David Rothschild Retweeted Nate Silver
Welcome @FiveThirtyEight's (secondary?) forecast back to world of reasonable forecasts! You have been on wild ride!

https://twitter.com/DavMicRot/status/760235713509986304

Sam Wang Retweeted
(((Will Cubbison))) ‏@wccubbison 39m39 minutes ago
@williamjordann @sleavitt1 the now cast is like if huffpo's average got drunk and started swinging wildly at people. exists for clicks

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Nah, this is the one sending me to hell:

Damn...

 

[Gruco]

We're basically back to where we were a month ago.

Mostly, but email blowback already factored in, Trump missed the last chance to pivot, and the Khan wars will probably continue to push this down into next week.

This isn't 1988 or 1992. The biggest thing to a blowout you're going to get is short of Obama's 2008 rout.

I am not sure this is 100% true. I still think there is a chance that Trump could completely fall apart and be abandoned by the party. If polling gets any worse, and he keeps creating horror shows for the party, Senate candidates are going to have a hard time dancing around denouncing him. He is already getting dangerously close to this scenario. The possibility of a recovery in his numbers has been the main thing holding the flood back.

Even then I think his floor is like 38% or something.

 

[Y2Kev]

Nah, this is the one sending me to hell:

It's a rolling average. You need another few days to get DNC bump polls.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Yes I am sure thta a model that swings 40 or so points in a short time is very reliable.

The Now-Cast is deliberately designed to be volatile.

 

[User 463088]

Yeah... the women being harassed should be the one to find a new job. Would Trump tell a woman raped walking home at night to take a cab next time instead?

Given his actions over the last year? Yes. Yes he would.