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[Sagroth]

Would this merit an OT thread(or is there one already)?

 

[Bowdz]

No. The guy has no experience. We shouldn't be making appointments on their ability to troll people

Warren had no real political experience beyond CPB and she's a fantastic Senator. Dude's a lawyer and a strong advocate for American values. He'd do fine.

 

[HylianTom]

Batting last is nice.

 

[VRMN]

So Trump's twitter rant against CNN was probably because he knew about the poll.

No, he's mad about the personal insult, certainly.

 

[Hazmat]

CNN Poll
Post-Democratic Convention

Clinton 52
Trump 43

https://mobile.twitter.com/TeddyDavisCNN/status/760218359891947520?p=v

They had Trump up a week ago, right? I know this is showing a convention bounce, but the last little bits of this poll that I can't snort I'm going to rub into my gums.

 

[User 463088]

Guis,

We can like Nate again!

Now Cast:
Hillary 78.3%
Trump 21.7%

Polls Only
Hillary 60.3%
Trump 39.7%

Polls Plus
Hillary 66.8%
Trump 33.2%

 

[ampere]

Batting last is nice.

We hit our go-ahead home run with the DNC, just gotta hold now

Guis,

We can like Nate again!

Now Cast:
Hillary 78.3%
Trump 21.7%

Polls Only
Hillary 60.3%
Trump 39.7%

Polls Plus
Hillary 66.8%
Trump 33.2%

I'm going to continue to criticize his models that heavily fluctuate at every single sneeze

 

[jiggle]

So, GOP, time to really panic?

When Garland gets his hearing

 

[User 85168]

Guis,

We can like Nate again!

Now Cast:
Hillary 78.3%
Trump 21.7%

Polls Only
Hillary 60.3%
Trump 39.7%

Polls Plus
Hillary 66.8%
Trump 33.2%

Polls+ is supposed to have convention bounces built in, and it still went up 6%. Real movement detected

 

[Fenderputty]

For them, yes. Numerous other ones. Al showing a much bigger bounce for her than Trump got, in aggregate.

I've been staying out of the polls, but was curious how the aggregates would look after a week. Thanks.

 

[Mac_Lane]

Guis,

We can like Nate again!

Now Cast:
Hillary 78.3%
Trump 21.7%

Polls Only
Hillary 60.3%
Trump 39.7%

Polls Plus
Hillary 66.8%
Trump 33.2%

Yaaas.

And I think the last CNN one isn't even counted yet in Nate's model.

 

[avaya]

Game over if true.

Everyone knows it's true. She's gonna be getting 80% plus, outperforming Obama.

 

[User 463088]

I'm going to continue to criticize his models that heavily fluctuate at every single sneeze

Shhh. No logic. Only emotion.

Polls+ is supposed to have convention bounces built in, and it still went up 6%. Real movement detected

XD I haven't taken a deep breath in weeks. Feels good mane.

Plus, I'm eating an edible arrangement. So......

 

[Hazmat]

We hit our go-ahead home run with the DNC, just gotta hold now

Obama being on the campaign trail hard in October is the definition of a solid closer.

 

[Officerrob]

Guis,

We can like Nate again!

Now Cast:
Hillary 78.3%
Trump 21.7%

Polls Only
Hillary 60.3%
Trump 39.7%

Polls Plus
Hillary 66.8%
Trump 33.2%

His model is just all over the place

 

[User 463088]

His model is just all over the place

This doesn't even include the new CNN poll btw. It'll move more.

 

[Dishwalla]

Would've been shocked if she didn't get at least a 5 point bump, so this is good to see. Was hoping for ten but this will do just fine.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I don't think its fair to say Nate Silver's model is bad on the basis that you don't understand how it works.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Guis,

We can like Nate again!

Now Cast:
Hillary 78.3%
Trump 21.7%

Polls Only
Hillary 60.3%
Trump 39.7%

Polls Plus
Hillary 66.8%
Trump 33.2%

Oh good, I hate having to hate Nate.

Anyway. I'm probably going to take the next few weeks off of PoliGAF. A lot of stuff happening all at once in my life and it might be nice to not stress myself out over the day to day minutia. I turn 25 on the 21st (and most of my stuff will be wrapped up by then) so I'll probably be more active after that. Don't fuck anything up while I'm gone, if I come back and Trump's winning I'll be so pissed.

 

[User 463088]

@Nate_Cohn the 4-way matchup has both Jill Stein (8%) and Gary Johnson (8%) leading Trump (7%) among non-white voters!

 

[Y2Kev]

Hillary went up because weights and shit moved, flipping Florida and Ohio to her despite nothing happening. This is embarrassing.

Edit: also Nevada

 

[Mac_Lane]

I don't think its fair to say Nate Silver's model is bad on the basis that you don't understand how it works.

Well, the Now-Cast sure is acting wildly :

 

[nature boy]

Dear USC, time to fix your fucked up tracking poll.

 

[Black Mamba]

Guis,

We can like Nate again!

Now Cast:
Hillary 78.3%
Trump 21.7%

Polls Only
Hillary 60.3%
Trump 39.7%

Polls Plus
Hillary 66.8%
Trump 33.2%

I CALLED IT. The Now Cast is pure trash.

Polls-Plus being back to 2/3 is good.

CNN poll isn't even in their database, yet, too. It's going to go up more...

 

[Officerrob]

I don't think its fair to say Nate Silver's model is bad on the basis that you don't understand how it works.

Hi Nate

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Goddman it, this calling Hillary Clinton "Queen" reaaaaaally rubs me the wrong way. This is more of a vent as opposed to being directed at anyone who chooses to call her that.

Hillary:

Trump:

(The big news here is that Hillary is over 50)

Both of those gifs are horrible.

 

[Fragamemnon]

CNN Poll
Post-Democratic Convention

Clinton 52
Trump 43

Sad! (this is the great news for john mccain meme for this cycle right?)

In a couple of weeks this will normalize to 47-49 H , 43-45 Trump where it will stay for months and then the election will be a 51-52 to 47-48 snoozer.

 

[Kangi]

Goddman it, this calling Hillary Clinton "Queen" reaaaaaally rubs me the wrong way. This is more of a vent as opposed to being directed at anyone who chooses to call her that.

After January it will be mandatory.

Hail to the Queen, baby.

 

[Black Mamba]

I don't think its fair to say Nate Silver's model is bad on the basis that you don't understand how it works.

I do understand how it works. He uses an aggressive type of regression that looks for Trends and react to it.

basically, as Hillary's numbers went down and the RNC happened, it saw a major trend for Trump. Not it's seeing that going into the RNC Trump's numbers were getting a big worse (or rather Clinton recovering a bit) and now with this supposed convention bounce the supposed "trend" has switched in a matter of days the other way.

It's why we see such a big swing in the Now-Cast. Which shows how useless it is.

And as I argued earlier, I don't believe his model should be trying to discern trends.

 

[Black Mamba]

Dear USC, time to fix your fucked up tracking poll.

The USC poll is a 7 day poll and we're not going to see the full bounce until next Friday/Sat. Even then, it's probably around Monday when a full bounce is priced in.

it's already moved 3 points in Hillary's direction with just a few days of voting in it after the last day.

Give it time.

 

[Geist-]

I want that haha. It's something I can show my kids when they ask what it was like when we almost elected a walking disaster.

 

[Basileus777]

That CNN poll has Trump with 7% of the non-white vote. I can't stress enough how amazingly awful that is.

 

[DasRaven]

Good poll day, but I really want to see a $50M+ July to lock in the trend.
There were rumors of donors holding back until the GOP was "stuck with him."

 

[User 463088]

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 56m56 minutes ago Columbus, OH
Thank you Columbus, Ohio! I will be back soon. #ImWithYou #MAGA

IS THAT A THREAT!?


So, question:

Who leaked the CNN poll numbers to Trump?

Trick question. It was Lewandowski .

 

[CCS]

That CNN poll has Trump with 7% of the non-white vote. I can't stress enough how amazingly awful that is.

Maybe he should do a Romney and speak to Hispanics whilst bright oran - oh wait

 

[Y2Kev]

Why would any nonwhite person vote trump? Blacks 0. Hispanics...maybe 15%. Asians lol. So that averages out to like 10%.

 

[Y2Kev]

I'm sorry but you rail on immigration and "law and order" and sooner or later nonwhites are going to get it.

 

[User 463088]

This new anti-strickland ad is actually really, really good.

 

[Iolo]

Sad! (this is the great news for john mccain meme for this cycle right?)

In a couple of weeks this will normalize to 47-49 H , 43-45 Trump where it will stay for months and then the election will be a 51-52 to 47-48 snoozer.

Not good enough. Trump must not only lose but be destroyed so hard that his father retroactively disowns him. This loss needs to transcend spacetime.

 

[Holmes]

When Hillary wins the election

 

[User 463088]

When Hillary wins the election

What's even better is that she's going to give us things we didn't even know we wanted! Like Daddy Kaine.

 

[Black Mamba]

Taniel
‏@Taniel
Sanders supporters (in CNN):

Clinton fave: 59/36
Trump fave: 5/90

Keep egging them on, Trump. KEEP AT IT. PLEASE!

He's so fucking stupid in every imaginable way.

 

[metalslimer]

Yassss at that new CNN poll

Edit Thank god Trump is covering up Hilary's awful answer on her emails

 

[RastaMentality]

@Nate_Cohn the 4-way matchup has both Jill Stein (8%) and Gary Johnson (8%) leading Trump (7%) among non-white voters!

omg

 

[nature boy]

The USC poll is a 7 day poll and we're not going to see the full bounce until next Friday/Sat. Even then, it's probably around Monday when a full bounce is priced in.

it's already moved 3 points in Hillary's direction with just a few days of voting in it after the last day.

Give it time.

Even so, some of the breakdowns look very odd (Hispanics, 18-34).

Wang retwetting this:

(((Will Cubbison))) ‏@wccubbison 4m4 minutes ago
@williamjordann @sleavitt1 the now cast is like if huffpo's average got drunk and started swinging wildly at people. exists for clicks

 

[mo60]

@Nate_Cohn the 4-way matchup has both Jill Stein (8%) and Gary Johnson (8%) leading Trump (7%) among non-white voters!

This is even more hilarious than that recent PPP poll that showed stein doing worse than a dead gorilla.

 

[Black Mamba]

Even so, some of the breakdowns look very odd (Hispanics, 18-34).

Don't get me wrong, I agree. The non-hispanic but minority vote female vote, youth vote all look odd.

But there's a chance that their poll is accidentally Republican Leaning.

What matters is that the trend is away from Trump and back towards hillary. If every poll is doing that, and so far every released poll is showing some evidence of that, then it's good.

 

[User 463088]

Non-white voters (CNN):

Clinton fave: 61/32
Trump fave: 9/88 !
2-way: HRC 83%, Trump 12%
4-way: HRC 72%, Johnson 8%, Stein 8%, Trump 7% !

His favorable rating is single digits.

Let that sink in. Single. Fucking. Digits.

 

[Kusagari]

I just saw that CNN is doing another Libertarian town hall.

Jill must be seething. NOTICE ME!!!!

 

[The Technomancer]

yessir you got trouble here in the town of DC, trouble with a capital T and that rhymes with P and that stands for Progressivism

http://time.com/4434199/paul-ryan-koch-progressives/?xid=time_socialflow_twitter

House Speaker Paul Ryan warned some of his Republican Party’s biggest donors on Monday that some in the GOP are flirting with progressive ideas and kowtowing to frustrated voters on trade.

Speaking on the final day of a retreat for donors to the network of groups backed by billionaires Charles and David Koch, the Republican leader cast the current debate in Washington a “fight for the soul of our party and for our country.” He made only oblique references to Republican nominee Donald Trump and instead promised these 400 donors, who give at least $100,000 to the Koch groups, that next year would be one packed with reforms—if Republicans can unify.