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[Teggy]

The so-called lead is there because it's mostly still part of the RNC bump. Their polling lags fully by 7 days.

We won't know til the weekend where their poll stands post DNC.

Also, these guys did RAND last time but RAND hasn't gone anywhere, they're still doing polling. These are some of the guys and the tweaks they did might have made it worse?

gonna call bullshit on that phrasing, given that the only usc/la times poll i can find from 2012 was in mid-august and it was 2 points off

what they mean is they did RAND, but even then it's not the same methodology

What's RAND? I'm assuming it has nothing to do with Rand Paul. Maybe.

Trump was asked what he thought Ivanka should do if she was sexually harassed and he said she should find another career. (oh, looks like we covered this. Repeating this one probably isnt' bad though).

 

[Kusagari]

I need to be talked off the ledge with this one.

The problem really is how they have the demographics voting. The last one had Hillary's Hispanic lead barely eclipsing 50% of the Hispanic vote and losing 18-34. It's just not believable.

 

[Black Mamba]

What's RAND? I'm assuming it has nothing to do with Rand Paul. Maybe.

Trump was asked what he thought Ivanka should do if she was sexually harassed and he said she should find another career. (oh, looks like we covered this. Repeating this one probably isnt' bad though).

https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2012

https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2016

 

[Link]

Oh Jesus, MSNBC has both Katrina Pierson and Boris Epshteyn on at the same time. I changed the channel faster than if they were broadcasting the Ark of the Covenant.

 

[B-Dubs]

Damn...

I can't stop, someone help me--like Harambe tried to help that small child.

It's a rolling average. You need another few days to get DNC bump polls.

Fucking dead LOL

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Why would any nonwhite person vote trump? Blacks 0. Hispanics...maybe 15%. Asians lol. So that averages out to like 10%.

I know a couple of minority women who are voting for him because they are very religious and he's pro life. I can't talk to them because I don't really like debating when people start bringing religion into the conversation. There's no reasoning at that point and it just upsets me.

When Hillary wins the election

If she doesn't march at a gay pride parade, I'm rescinding my future vote.

 

[Crayons]

I know a couple of minority women who are voting for him because they are very religious and he's pro life. I can't talk to them because I don't really like debating when people start bringing religion into the conversation. There's no reasoning at that point and it just upsets me.



If she doesn't march at a gay pride parade, I'm rescinding my future vote.

Hillary is an honorary gay

 

[BiggNife]

Well, the Now-Cast sure is acting wildly :

Considering the nowcast is designed to be a snapshot of the current electorate, that's not surprising - of course Trump's probabilty of winning the election would be far more likely if the election occured right after the RNC, and same for Hillary if it happened right after the DNC.

By Nate's own admission, the nowcast is not indicative of long-term trends, so while it may be helpful just to see where things are at the moment, it's not a good indicator of how the actual election will turn out.

However, the polls-plus forecast, which Nate believes is the most accurate and is not nearly as volatile in regards to convention bumps as the nowcast or polls-only, ALSO has a noticeable spike for Hillary, which is is what people should be paying attention to right now:

 

[User 463088]

Hillary is an honorary gay

Honorary? I think Huma has something to say about that.

Also two things:

There has been a shift in the media. They're actually calling out Trump trying to change the topic from one controversy to another. I haven't seen them call it out like that.

Second:

With Hillary bouncing in the polls, and Trump lighting his no-no parts on fire....I think there's a chance for a bandwagon effect.

 

[Maxim726X]

The Now-Cast is deliberately designed to be volatile.

I'm relatively sure he has said as much on Twitter...

 

[StopMakingSense]

When do the vulnerable house republicans start campaigning as Anti-trump? Middle of September?

 

[Loudninja]

I'm relatively sure he has said as much on Twitter...

So it is useless.

 

[RustyNails]

Bounces are almost never durable. We'll be back around to diablosing by Sept. 1.

I would not be surprised if Trump backs out; he's already laying the groundwork to just not do them. I suspect he will show up and then just get annihilated, of course. He doesn't know anything about politics and spewing pablum doesn't work on that stage.

Obama maintained his post convention bump...until he got obliterated by RomBot in the first debate.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

I can't stop, someone help me--like Harambe tried to help that small child.

You're gonna run out of steam eventually.

 

[Maxim726X]

So it is useless.

Well, it has a place.

The last day of the RNC, based on polling of that time, Donald Trump was most likely to win the election had it taken place on that exact date.

Of course, that's not the most useful information overall, but it gives you an idea of what the pulse of the nation is.

 

[Crayons]

You're gonna run out of steam eventually.

Like Harambe when he took that bullet on that fateful day

 

[Black Mamba]

Once again, the problem with the Now-CAST isn't that it's volatile.

The problem is that it's not useful for discerning what will happen in November NOR what would happen today.

In other words, it's not even a "Now Cast."

The model is stupid. It says nothing and is inaccurate.

 

[Iolo]

Who cares about Nowcast, or Polls Plus (which failed badly in the primary--sad!) I want to know why the weights are the way they are in Polls only. But no, that is an ESPN proprietary secret, so we are treated to Foghorn Leghorn like explanations.

 

[Plinko]

I wouldn't count out Indiana just yet because if it looks like trump is going to do really awful in the midwest on election day and Pence has issues appealing to people in that state because people really hate him I can see hilary winning that state by 1%-3%.

Count out Indiana. It's over. Hillary has no chance here.

 

[eBay Huckster]

never give up

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Like Harambe when he took that bullet on that fateful day

Fuck.. Lol

 

[Black Mamba]

Who cares about Nowcast, or Polls Plus (which failed badly in the primary--sad!) I want to know why the weights are the way they are in Polls only. But no, that is an ESPN proprietary secret, so we are treated to Foghorn Leghorn like explanations.

Yeah, I am a bit confused as to why a poll from June, nationally, has the highest weight among all polls.

I mean, I understand the model is trying to not overreact to convention bumps since we know those are generally a result of higher response rates after your party's convention. And it is smart to correct for that. But I don't understand why a poll from June is #1 in weight, at all.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I mean, Nate never directs anyone to the Nowcast, it just exists because it provides a useful tool for looking at where the race has gone in the most recent days. It's not there to be legitimately predictive. He specifically tells you not to rely on Nowcast as having predictive power about November.

 

[Tamanon]

Trump is kinda getting killed on the ABC evening news. They're playing all these times he said he had a good relationship with Putin, and really just trashing his George interview.

 

[Iolo]

I expect Hillary to lose most of her bounce (unless Trump really screwed himself with his Russia and Khan stuff) but! the existence of a bounce means the laws of political physics sill apply and the election has not yet gone completely bonkers. Assuming the polls are sampling reasonably.

 

[Wilsongt]

Liberal, activist judges strike again.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidn...enforce-anti-l?utm_term=.srx7X68LB#.aj1KopExD

WASHINGTON — The federal judge in Mississippi who halted enforcement of the state's new anti-LGBT religious exemption law declined on Monday to put his ruling on hold while the state appeals the ruling.

Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant had asked U.S. District Court Judge Carlton Reeves to issue a stay of his preliminary injunction order during the appeal. If granted, the state would have allowed the state to enforce the law during its appeal of the ruling against the law.

Bryant signed the bill, HB 1523, into law on April 5. The bill provided protections for individuals, religious organizations, and certain businesses who take actions due to their “sincerely held religious beliefs or moral convictions” to same-sex marriage — or any sex outside straight marriage. It also provided similar protections for those who object to transgender people.

In dismissing the state's argument for why a stay should be granted — and reiterating that he believed the plaintiffs would ultimately succeed in their challenge to the law — Reeves was abrupt.

 

[Random17]

I don't see how this is possible. Demographics are obvious, the old world is no more on high-turnout elections such as the the General. African-American turnout is impressively high, that community has finally realised it can seriously impact elections. Hispanic turnout has only one way to go and that's up. Non-college educated white males are declining in share of population. Red states are being turned purple.

The Dems are on the verge of being recession-proof on the Presidential level. The Blue wall is likely over 270 EV given Virginia coming into the fold and PA being fools gold. The paths to victory are large and varied with an electorate turning Democrat +1.2% every 4 years. It's an unstoppable train. The SCOTUS should be able to start fighting back against the gerrymandering from 2017/18 in time for 2020.

The only thing Democrats need to fear is turnout. The Republican party is finished on the Presidential level as long as Democrats have a competent GOTV plan. In low-level races on low turnout, their old reliable base will come out but they just get swamped at the national level. These are the death throes of the Southern Strategy with a more inelastic electorate as a whole till the climate normalises when the R's start running for the true center (a hard ask given they will almost certainly face backlash from the 30% racist base).

For 2020 the GOP is utterly fucked. The will again go down the "not conservative enough" path for the rabid base. Their position with Hispanics are likely torched for 2-3cycles at least (in which time the Blue Wall could well be 300+ EV)

Demographics aren't everything, and it is entirely possible for the GOP to get their act together if Trump screws them over in 2016. Obama won by a smaller margin in 2012 than he did in 2008, including states such as Indiana and North Carolina that are very unlikely to fall back to Clinton, outside of a total collapse.

I'm not entirely convinced Hispanics are a lock either, especially if the narrative is that Trump was an outlier, and people like Bush are more representative of the party. While it is true that some red states are becoming purple, so are some blue states such as Pennsylvania. The GOP is gaining a stronger foothold on blue collar white voters, and all it takes is one semi-charismatic candidate to recoup any losses to the white collar white voter in 2020.

I still think that Hillary will probably win a second term if she wins her first, but it is not going to be anywhere near as easy as people may think.

 

[Iolo]

"The old Cray-2 walks just before the light of day" - Lawton Silver, explaining his methodology

 

[gcubed]

I expect Hillary to lose most of her bounce (unless Trump really screwed himself with his Russia and Khan stuff) but! the existence of a bounce means the laws of political physics sill apply and the election has not yet gone completely bonkers. Assuming the polls are sampling reasonably.

Trump didn't really bounce too much, Hillary just went down. Trump can't break 43, people can be worried to bake sure people show up, but this isn't and won't be a close election

 

[Suikoguy]

I expect Hillary to lose most of her bounce (unless Trump really screwed himself with his Russia and Khan stuff) but! the existence of a bounce means the laws of political physics sill apply and the election has not yet gone completely bonkers. Assuming the polls are sampling reasonably.

I'd say the chances of her losing the poll bounce are 50:50.

Spoiler

But seriously, the contrast between the two conventions was so stark, I don't think typical rules will apply as strongly

 

[Paskil]

Liberal, activist judges strike again.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidn...enforce-anti-l?utm_term=.srx7X68LB#.aj1KopExD

Not surprising. What harm is befalling the state, absent a stay? Fuck Mississippi. Get rid of that damn state flag while you're at it.

 

[User 463088]

I expect Hillary to lose most of her bounce (unless Trump really screwed himself with his Russia and Khan stuff) but! the existence of a bounce means the laws of political physics sill apply and the election has not yet gone completely bonkers. Assuming the polls are sampling reasonably.

Sure sure. But, at the same time....maybe not. Like, these numbers are very similar to pre-FBI, pre-GOP convention. I mean, it's possible something shitty could come up that would have that massive one-two punch. But what is going to "fix" Trump with non-white voters? That's where he's lost this race.

 

[Mgoblue201]

Well, it has a place.

The last day of the RNC, based on polling of that time, Donald Trump was most likely to win the election had it taken place on that exact date.

Of course, that's not the most useful information overall, but it gives you an idea of what the pulse of the nation is.

If, however, as some political scientists claim, the post-convention bump is mostly a matter of partisan voters declaring their intentions, then the now cast isn't much use after the conventions, because the missing Democrat voters would not have been accounted for.

 

[Anno]

Anyone recommend good general political podcasts?

 

[Black Mamba]

Khizr Khan, the father of the Muslim soldier, said in his speech at the Democratic convention last week that Trump had "sacrificed nothing." And Trump hit back over the weekend, saying that he's "made a lot of sacrifices," like creating jobs.

During a CNN panel discussion Sunday, Trump surrogate Scottie Nell Hughes defended Trump's comments.

"Mr. Trump was responding to the fact of sacrificing. Nowhere ever did he ever say that his sacrifice was equivalent or more or even close to what the Kahn’s had given up," she said.

CNN host Fredricka Whitfield then asked, "Is creating a job considered a sacrifice?"

"You know what, creating jobs caused him to be at work, which cost him two marriages,” Hughes said in response. “Time away from his family to sit there and invest.

Clinton surrogate Bernard Whitman jumped in to say, "infidelity cost him."

"No, actually being away from his family, he’s admitted it,” Hughes insisted. "That is the spin of the media and ongoing bias."

"You know what, creating jobs caused him to be at work, which cost him two marriages,” Hughes said in response. “Time away from his family to sit there and invest.

"You know what, creating jobs caused him to be at work, which cost him two marriages,” Hughes said in response. “Time away from his family to sit there and invest.

"You know what, creating jobs caused him to be at work, which cost him two marriages,” Hughes said in response. “Time away from his family to sit there and invest.

I DON'T EVEN KNOW HOW TO REACT TO THIS

 

[sc0la]

I am here to pick up my GAF panic directives with these new poll bumps. I am having trouble fretting on my own.

Suggestions?

 

[DorkLord54]

Count out Indiana. It's over. Hillary has no chance here.

*is from Indiana*

*has an avatar of Caldwell instead of Pagano*

Are you some kind of sadomasochist?

Spoiler

Obama winning the Alabama of the North in 2008 was probably a fluke, much like him winning Kent County here in Michigan in the same year.

 

[Paskil]

I am here to pick up my GAF panic directives with these new poll bumps. I am having trouble fretting on my own.

Suggestions?

It's a clever ruse. Trump commissioned these polls to make Hillary voters complacent for November. Trump is actually up by 8.

 

[Y2Kev]

I am here to pick up my GAF panic directives with these new poll bumps. I am having trouble fretting on my own.

Suggestions?

The one la times poll is bad still but will probably be good on Friday.

 

[Iolo]

It's a clever ruse. Trump commissioned these polls to make Hillary voters complacent for November. Trump is actually up by 8.

USC/LAT poll is the only outfit that couldn't be bought

 

[sc0la]

The one la times poll is bad still but will probably be good on Friday.

This isn't helping me feel worse!

Thanks for nothing.

 

[Slurpy2k20]

Why the fuck are all you people obsessing with polls every 7 seconds? It's a useless and fruitless waste of energy.

 

[eBay Huckster]

trump is leading by exactly 420 percent right now. don't trust the lamestream media's polls

 

[User 463088]

This isn't helping me feel worse!

Thanks for nothing.

There's a greater than zero chance that every woman, person of color, LGBT person and Muslim falls off the face of the earth the day before the election.

 

[Slurpy2k20]

I DON'T EVEN KNOW HOW TO REACT TO THIS

He might also have to sacrifice his current wife again for this country, for another one a couple decades younger. What a fucking trooper.

 

[DataStream]

I don't see this lead fading until more Wikileaks interference (and unless that is something beyond our imagination, I think she'll bounce back from it).

The negative view of Trump and the GOP convention is very substantial. I'm not sure if there is even a precedent. That combined with Khan, which reinforces how negative he is as a person, is going to have a lasting effect.

 

[RustyNails]

Why the fuck are all you people obsessing with polls every 7 seconds? It's a useless and fruitless waste of energy.

Welcome to poligaf. How else do you think we came up with the word diablosing.

 

[Gruco]

Once again, the problem with the Now-CAST isn't that it's volatile.

The problem is that it's not useful for discerning what will happen in November NOR what would happen today.

In other words, it's not even a "Now Cast."

The model is stupid. It says nothing and is inaccurate.

I'll add to this that there really is no normative benefit to building a deliberately volatile model. Unless your goal is to drive internet traffic.

"It's for fun" or whatever are not good defenses of this model, even though comments like that may be true. Silver built a model whose sole purpose is to generate controversy and act as click bait.

Silver has been pure garbage this cycle. I see no reason to use him as a source when much more reliable and less traffic-desperate options exist.

And because this is often the response people use, this has absolutely nothing to do with "disliking the results" or whatever. Dude is a pure click bait pundit who is freaking out after his self inflicted wounds from the primary.

 

[sc0la]

There's a greater than zero chance that every woman, person of color, LGBT person and Muslim falls off the face of the earth the day before the election.

This is what I'm talking about right here people. this is the stuff.

 

[hawk2025]

Replicating a post from OT, regarding Jill Stein.


Holy shit, it may get worse.

According to this source, this was in a fund-raising email from Stein:

In addition to climate change and creating an economy that works for the 99%, one of the most important is putting a moratorium on GMO foods and pesticides. Why? Because evidence is now showing that once these foods reach our digestive tract, they can affect our very DNA.
…
And built-in pesticides are just one of the repulsive aspects of GMO “franken foods” that corporate giant Monsanto has created.

Source:
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/danthr...al&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


I do not receive her fund-raising emails, so it would be nice to get some confirmation if this is true.



Stein is fucking nuts. Someone in the thread confirmed that this was indeed in one of her fundraising emails.