So, here's my take on the RNC.
Generally speaking, in a convention, there's only 3-4 speeches that matter. Generally there's, only 1 or 2 that actually matter. A lot of people just tune in for these speeches and don't give a fuck until the conventions. it's when they see what's going on and what to do. Conventions also help rile up your base but for the purposes of undecided/swing voters or leaners, these few speeches are all that matter.
The obvious one is the nominee. These speeches do matter a lot. This is when they put out their vision and hopes and make their case. Obama was obvious amazing at these.
There's the VP speech that matters...somewhat. People often don't know the VP and are curious. The VP just has to come across as competent (where Palin failed and pretty much everyone else hasn't. Even Ryan, whose speech was a bunch of lies, at least appeared competent).
Then there's the spousal speech. This speech only matters in the sense that you can't fuck up because no one will bash the spouse (well, until Bill comes along).
And finally, the X factor speech which is a surrogate. These speeches aren't always there but one example is Bill's 2012 speech. That one mattered. In 2012 it was supposed to be Christie but he botched it for Romney. Trump has no one and this year it will be Obama (more on that in a second) and possibly Bernie (while Bill's speech, due to unique circumstance, will matter less).
So, Trump only has 3 speeches and the easiest one, Melania's, was horribly botched. People are talking about it. Like, people who don't care about politics are talking about it. That's bad. Really bad. But not enough to kill Trump.
IMO, Pence will come off cornbread and that's fine.
On Hillary's side, unless the VP is Warren, I expect cornbread there too.
I think Hillary's speech will matter, but she is so known, I think it will matter less than usual.
Bernie can matter because he can help with the youth turnout. If he can really push for her it will help a bit.
But at the end of the day, I think these convention speeches really, truly, come down to 2 speeches.
Trump vs Obama.
Obama is going to make the strongest case for Hillary Clinton this election. Stronger than she could ever make. He will have to do for her what Bill did for him. Obama has the real power to motivate the leaners and youngsters to go out there on election day and say "I know it's not sexy, but we can move forward with her." I think he can make a great case about how Trump's values are not American values. That they don't represent this country and this people and our way of life. That it is not the American way, not the American Dream, and not America.
But for Trump, his speech will be 1 of his only chances to win this election. He has 3 choices.
1. Teleprompter boring speech which will do nothing.
2. Somehow manage to make a good speech that isn't crazy.
3. be Trump, off the cuff, nonsensical.
If he does #3, which is what I'd imagine he'd do, a lot of people who are really giving Trump their first hard look are going to say to themselves "oh my god...it's worse than I have been hearing. Nope." And then Obama comes in less than a week later and seals the deal.
There is nothing the RNC has shown so far that indicates to me Trump is even remotely capable of not fucking it up. And thank god for that.
And next week we're going to be saying "Thanks, Obama."
