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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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B

Basileus777

Member
Kristoffer said:
Those 25 extra seats stolen from Republicans is the only way to get majority in the house, which is what you mentioned. And your post had the hypothetical in it, which wasn't present in the post you quoted, and as the post you quoted contained no other quotes, I am holding you responsible for the hypothetical.
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It's not difficult to follow a conversation. Read the past page starting here. Actually the conversation started even earlier, but that's what I started to respond to.
 
R

Retro

Member
whyamihere said:
White, college educated women are coming through.
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535KzMb.jpg


Dominican Power said:
So what was the big Trump bomb?
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This, I believe;
Teggy said:
This is what farenthold was teasing yesterday. An article about how Trump has been caught lying over and over in the past, even in court.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/trump-lies/
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S

Slacker

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
Just ask the dude if he believes in the Constitution, and point out that it provides for due process.
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You know how about 0.01% of political conversations on Facebook result in someone changing their mind or gaining a new understanding of an issue? With this particular friend it's a true 0% possibility. I'd have better luck educating the Whataburger cup on my desk.

The sad thing is that she's such a kind person in every other respect. She'll do anything for anyone. But when Obama comes to town to pay respects to the fallen police officers, she's on FB with "WE DON'T WANT HIM HERE." It's heartbreaking the way people's minds get warped by this right-wing bullshit.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Kristoffer said:
I'm posing the question to Poligaf in general, then :)
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I think it's massively unlikely, but the discussion comes out of one respected statician saying his models are currently predicting the dems taking the house (Sam Wang if I remember right), and someone who works for the GOP saying their models say the same thing. If either provided the specific seats, I'm unaware of it, but that's what started it.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Basileus777 said:
The Republican leadership isn't going to want to embrace Trumpism after it costs them control of Congress. And Trump fans have shown no ability to primary anyone.
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They aren't going to embrace it but they sowed the seeds for it and those voters aren't going anywhere. The Republican party needs real reform both in messaging and policy if it wants to excise those elements of its party (and it should). What's stopping a candidate who is equally antagonistic towards women, minorities, basic political norms or respect for governance, etc. but actually has some self control, political savvy and strong oration skills from coming along in the future? It's less Trump "ideas" that are hurting him (though even stuff like the "Muslim ban" gives a good chunk of Republicans pause) so much as his inability to stop insulting literally everyone all the time.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
I get a little wet at the Princeton numbers but that's a "national trend" argument and doesn't really point to actual seats, which is more important to me. That number could easily be skewed by greater turnout by democrats in areas where.. they've already won the battle.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Kristoffer said:
I get a little wet at the Princeton numbers but that's a "national trend" argument and doesn't really point to actual seats, which is more important to me. That number could easily be skewed by greater turnout by democrats in areas where.. they've already won the battle.
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I don't remotely believe that we will get house control, and I'm sure most agree, but some are daring to dream and that's part of why. It's crazy that we are even talking about it.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Fenderputty said:
All this talk about ramming and politics has me back in 2010 again.
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Go on.....

I still think that 538's model reacts too much to absolutely nothing. Seriously. What in the world has changed from yesterday to increase Trump's chance of winning the election? Nothing. Nothing at all.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
adam387 said:
Go on.....

I still think that 538's model reacts too much to absolutely nothing. Seriously. What in the world has changed from yesterday to increase Trump's chance of winning the election? Nothing. Nothing at all.
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It's a marginal difference whatever the chart looks like. They obviously weight more recent polls the highest, so it can be a bit noisy, but it should also mean it reacts quicker than if it didn't weight recent polls so high. I didn't freak out about it when it had Trump ahead. I'm not going to freak out when Clinton is still 75% likely to win according to them.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
plagiarize said:
It's a marginal difference whatever the chart looks like. They obviously weight more recent polls the highest, so it can be a bit noisy, but it should also mean it reacts quicker than if it didn't weight recent polls so high. I didn't freak out about it when it had Trump ahead. I'm not going to freak out when Clinton is still 75% likely to win according to them.
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Oh, I'm not freaking out. I just don't get why they're so much more reactionary than PEC or Upshot is all.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Kristoffer said:
I get a little wet at the Princeton numbers but that's a "national trend" argument and doesn't really point to actual seats, which is more important to me. That number could easily be skewed by greater turnout by democrats in areas where.. they've already won the battle.
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It's all about the margin of victory. If it's truly a wave and it's 8+% then there might be a couple of things that could help the Democrats. One is that Trump may become so toxic that likely GOP voters stay home. Chances of the Democrats taking the house is very slim, but now we are talking about that being a possibility where before it was just assumed to be impossible this year. Sam Wang could be wrong, but he's not the only one saying this. Republicans high up are worried about this being a real possibility come November. Crazy to me that we are really even entertaining this being a possibility. I know which universe I belong too if the Democrats get control of both the Senate and House. Obama would be named Hilarys supreme court justice, and that would mean that I live in the crazy dreams universe.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
TheFatOne said:
It's all about the margin of victory. If it's truly a wave and it's 8+% then there might be a couple of things that could help the Democrats. One is that Trump may become so toxic that likely GOP voters stay home. Chances of the Democrats taking the house is very slim, but now we are talking about that being a possibility where before it was just assumed to be impossible this year. Sam Wang could be wrong, but he's not the only one saying this. Republicans high up are worried about this being a real possibility come November. Crazy to me that we are really even entertaining this being a possibility. I know which universe I belong too if the Democrats get control of both the Senate and House. Obama would be named Hilarys supreme court justice, and that would mean that I live in the crazy dreams universe.
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Even in a dream universe I wouldn't want Obama to be Justice. He'd be far too useful for campaigning, strategizing, etc. to be locked into what is ostensibly a nonpartisan position.

He'd also have to recuse himself basically on anything he signed or voted for as a conflict of interest.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Even in a dream universe I wouldn't want Obama to be Justice. He'd be far too useful for campaigning, strategizing, etc. to be locked into what is ostensibly a nonpartisan position.

He'd also have to recuse himself basically on anything he signed or voted for as a conflict of interest.
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My friend, but the bitter tears will sustain me for a lifetime. Imagine the full melt down coming from the right. They essentially demonized Obama from the second he was the nominee. The melt downs from the right would be glorious. I would sacrifice his ability to campaign just for that.

Edit: I agree with you. Just would be far more entertaining if he was nominated and accepted.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
Kristoffer said:
I get a little wet at the Princeton numbers but that's a "national trend" argument and doesn't really point to actual seats, which is more important to me. That number could easily be skewed by greater turnout by democrats in areas where.. they've already won the battle.
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We are starting to see a trend where Trump is dramatically underperforming in Suburban areas that are usually GOP leaning. That is a completely new line of attack and does hint at a viable path to a Speaker Pelosi.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
BlastProcessing said:
We are starting to see a trend where Trump is dramatically underperforming in Suburban areas that are usually GOP leaning. That is a completely new line of attack and does hint at a viable path to a Speaker Pelosi.
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Shoooooooooow meeeeeeee the seeeeeeeeats

All house speculation should be put on hold until we get the first post-debate polling.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
538 using the google consumer survey poll. I think there's only like 4 pollsters on earth they refuse to use. One of them was literally making fake numbers.
 
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