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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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F

fantomena

Member
adam387 said:
I've had bad experiences with like gay bashing online so I stick to safe spaces. But, I post in College Football Gaf a lot during the season. And....some of the political threads. I get nervous around strange people. You all feel me. Or tolerate me. Which is good enough. :p
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Next year if I join the gay pride parade in my country, Im gonna hold a sign saying "IN SUPPORT OF ADAM387" :p

I sadly couldn't join this year. :(
 
C

Crayons

Banned
adam387 said:
I've had bad experiences with like gay bashing online so I stick to safe spaces. But, I post in College Football Gaf a lot during the season. And....some of the political threads. I get nervous around strange people. You all feel me. Or tolerate me. Which is good enough. :p
Click to expand...

gay bashing online doesn't get to me

No matter what corner of the internet I'm on, I make sure my posts are the gayest. Believe me. They're gonna be the gayest posts you've ever read. Lots of people are saying "Crayons, your posts are too gay" and I say "Look, I'm gonna make the gayest posts you've ever seen
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
Black Mamba said:
Trump winning the youth vote in this poll...

Trump with 32% of the black vote...
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"The vision of the Civitas Institute is of a North Carolina whose citizens enjoy liberty and prosperity derived from limited government, personal responsibility and civic engagement."

Yep.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Chi said:
Unskew them polls
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Unskewing was more done by looking at Party ID than looking at the demo data.

We have seen nothing else to suggest that Trump will get 32% of the black vote in NC. That is not just an outlier, but a stunning repudiation of any known demo leans.

EDIT: Oh.
 
B

BrokenFiction

Member
GoldenEye 007 said:
How do we think this Iran money situation will play out?
Click to expand...

Very well.

From the White House press briefing from 1/19 literally announcing it...

Co8YFQ5WgAAwodR.jpg
Click to expand...
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
nature boy said:
They say the poll was conducted by SurveyUSA.

But yeah it looks weird.
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In all seriousness, it's probably a sampling error.

Their N=400.

What is their N for black people? They don't say. Well, since their composition is 18%, and if they got lower response rate than that, it could easily just be a bit of bad luck. Oversampled a few black Republican leaners with a small sample set and end up with a bad outcome.

The gender split is also insane. Not like how they're voting, but saying it's going to be 50/50. It was 56/44 in 2012.
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Didn't see this. Yikes!


edit: Was 23% black in 2012, listed at 18% here.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Black Mamba said:
In all seriousness, it's probably a sampling error.

Their N=400.

What is their N for black people? They don't say. Well, since their composition is 18%, and if they got lower response rate than that, it could easily just be a bit of bad luck. Oversampled a few black Republican leaners with a small sample set and end up with a bad outcome.


Didn't see this. Yikes!
Click to expand...

Ya, it's a messed up sample in a lot of ways. That's one of the things I always look at first. IDK why, but there's no way you're going to get a 50/50 gender split.
 
V

VRMN

Member
Sir Alemeth said:
It's NC. Was it ever going to go to a Democratic nominee?
Who cares about NC.
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Demographics are really off based on 2012 and yet it's only a slim lead in a poll that Trump should be winning big. This is actually a horrible number for Trump given the demo breakdown.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Sir Alemeth said:
It's NC. Was it ever going to go to a Democratic nominee?
Who cares about NC.
Click to expand...

I mean, it went to Obama in 2008, and we got close again in 2012. It's a swing state. And, like, I don't like bad data even if it favors my candidate. So....maybe?

Also, with those break downs, I feel like Trump should be doing better than +4.

https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 3-m&geo=US&q=Harambe,/m/022r9r

Harambe is beating Pence in Google Searches.

Harambe/Whatever Bambi's Mom's name is 2016
 
N

nature boy

Member
Black Mamba said:
In all seriousness, it's probably a sampling error.

Their N=400.

What is their N for black people? They don't say. Well, since their composition is 18%, and if they got lower response rate than that, it could easily just be a bit of bad luck. Oversampled a few black Republican leaners with a small sample set and end up with a bad outcome.


Didn't see this. Yikes!


edit: Was 23% black in 2012, listed at 18% here.
Click to expand...
Yeah, while SurveryUSA is a good pollster, the numbers are bonkers.

But better than nothing! Even with shitty breakdowns it's a close race.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Nate Cohn is now unskewing the Civitas poll. (Actually, noting the low AA and high old, white male samples.)
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
nature boy said:
Yeah, while SurveryUSA is a good pollster, the numbers are bonkers.

But better than nothing! Even with shitty breakdowns it's a close race.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

SurveyUSA is, as a good pollster, is supposed to get outliers. That's perfectly normal and all good pollsters get them.

My takeaway would be this. Given the demographics and results of this specific poll and that Trump is only up 4, this is a very winnable race for Hillary. There's no way around that.
 
S

Sir Alemeth

Member
Well it's probably a biased poll anyway with all the Republicans in that state.
It's going to be glorious if Hillary takes NC. LOL.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Hasta la vista

EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows Trump has a big Hispanic problem in Florida


Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump appears to be facing an insurmountable wall among Latino voters in the key swing state of Florida: only 12.9% support among Hispanic voters, according to a new survey.

It is a "historical low for a Republican candidate," said Eduardo Gamarra, co-author of New Latino Voice, an online poll conducted by Florida International University and Adsmovil, which is surveying the Latino vote nationally over the course of 16 weeks. The last sample was taken between July 26 and 31, and for the first time includes specific results for Florida.

While Trump can afford to give up the Hispanic vote in battleground states like Ohio and Pennsylvania where Hispanics make up less than 5% of eligible voters, he can't afford to run that risk in Florida where the Latino electorate has greater weight, making up 18% of voters.
Click to expand...

Romney won 40% in Florida AND LOST.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Sir Alemeth said:
It's NC. Was it ever going to go to a Democratic nominee?
Who cares about NC.
Click to expand...

NC has had volatile demographic demographic changes over the last 15-20 years and has modern, large hubs of postindustrial economic activity that look more like northern VA than anything else. Population in the highly educated, diverse cities is rising rapidly.

Cementing VA and NC turn a perennially-bad electoral map into an impossible one for Republicans. It's a big deal long term for Democrats to start making gains in the state.
 
B

BrokenFiction

Member
Christina WilkieVerified account
‏@christinawilkie

Trump crowd starts booing when emcee mentions a request from the fire marshall. "No no, it's a legitimate concern!" he pleads.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
BrokenFiction said:
Christina WilkieVerified account
‏@christinawilkie

Trump crowd starts booing when emcee mentions a request from the fire marshall. "No no, it's a legitimate concern!" he pleads.
Click to expand...

If this man gets elected him and his supporters will be the undoing of our nation
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
nature boy said:
Hasta la vista

EXCLUSIVE: New poll shows Trump has a big Hispanic problem in Florida




Romney won 40% in Florida AND LOST.
Click to expand...

THAT'S what I've been looking for for weeks. Good. GOOD. Plus, many polls are undersampling Hispanics.

BrokenFiction said:
Christina WilkieVerified account
‏@christinawilkie

Trump crowd starts booing when emcee mentions a request from the fire marshall. "No no, it's a legitimate concern!" he pleads.
Click to expand...

These are the people who want literally no government oversight so this isn't a surprise.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Black Mamba said:
Reminder: I've been saying Florida isn't as much a swing state this year as in the past. Won't be in the top 3 closest states, probably not top 5.

Mark it, dude.


Also, friendly reminder. You're going to be seeing this a lot from me over the next 3+ months.
Click to expand...

They need to vote, though. If they do, not enough "poorly educated!" white folks can save his ass.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I really want to see the interal GOP polling. For them to be panicking like this it must be absolutely terrible.
 
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