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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!

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S

syllogism

Member
BrokenFiction said:
Go read https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak right now. (GOP Strategist)

Gems:

1) We are at a crisis point. The wheels are off. Blowout election loss now likely. Trump's numbers are worsening across the board.

2/ Options are now limited since convention has ended. He cannot be thrown off ballot. He has to withdraw. He must be sold on this.

3/ Ballot withdrawal deadlines vary by state, but if he's not out by late Aug it's too late. TX deadline is Aug. 26, for example.

4/ We are in completely uncharted we territory here. Nominee hemorrhaging support, doesn't care, is intentionally damaging our candidates.

...and many more.
Click to expand...
Even if it wasn't complete fiction that Trump might bow out, it appears that the deadline for at least several relevant states is August 10th; an impossible deadline to meet by this point
 
R

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Emarv said:
Mario was already great! Mario never stopped being great!
Click to expand...
Lies

Hotel_Mario.jpg
 
U

User 463088

Banned
So, looking at those YouGov numbers (the one that has Hillary up 5). There are some issues with their polling. They have the Latino vote at 47/28 in the 4-way race and 53/31 H2H.

There is no way this is accurate. I'm not unskewing, mind you, I'm calling into question their methodology. They're 100% online, right? Clearly, they're having an issue getting a representative Hispanic sample. Something's wrong there.
 
R

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
adam387 said:
So, looking at those YouGov numbers (the one that has Hillary up 5). There are some issues with their polling. They have the Latino vote at 47/28 in the 4-way race and 53/31 H2H.

There is no way this is accurate. I'm not unskewing, mind you, I'm calling into question their methodology. They're 100% online, right? Clearly, they're having an issue getting a representative Hispanic sample. Something's wrong there.
Click to expand...
There's something going on here and Obama is in on it



But that can't be right......
 
E

Emarv

Member
adam387 said:
So, looking at those YouGov numbers (the one that has Hillary up 5). There are some issues with their polling. They have the Latino vote at 47/28 in the 4-way race and 53/31 H2H.

There is no way this is accurate. I'm not unskewing, mind you, I'm calling into question their methodology. They're 100% online, right? Clearly, they're having an issue getting a representative Hispanic sample. Something's wrong there.
Click to expand...

Most likely. Falls in line with what we know about how difficult it has been to properly reach Hispanic samples.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Rebel Leader said:
There's something going on here and Obama is in on it



But that can't be right......
Click to expand...

Trump's "Very favorable" rating among whites is 20. Among Hispanic voters it's 12. There is no polling ever anywhere that would suggest that number among Hispanics is accurate. I'm not sure if it's because they only pull people from online or whatever, but clearly something is off in that sample.
 
phisheep

phisheep

NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
Pah, youngsters. I was born under Eisenhower.

Now, I had one of my dreams about Trump's campaign management trying to take the focus off the current dumpster fire. It went something like this:

MANAFORT: Hey, Donald. We've got to take the focus off all the recent car crash stuff.

TRUMP: That's Mister Trump to you, loser.

MANAFORT: Yeah sure, whatever. By the way I got you a new phone. Nice phone. Got diamonds in the home button. Plus, it's secure. Hugely secure.

TRUMP: (twiddling with phone) So what's this idea you got - by the way, WHAT CAR CRASH??

MANAFORT: Never mind the vehicles Don. Thing is, we have to close down the shit that is flying around. Crazy corrupt shit I know, but it's damaging us, er, you. Cleared it with Reince too.

PRIEBUS: Yeah, schure diddly.

MANAFORT: So what we do is we release your tax returns.

TRUMP: No way Bud. Hey, who is that on CNN? Hot!

PRIEBUS: No really Mister Trump. See, if you release your tax returns then the media, OK the MASSIVELY CORRUPT MEDIA, will talk about nothing else for the next two months. And it is entirely personal to you Donald Mister Trump Shir Thing and it won't rebound on the Repub ....

MANAFORT: ... What Reince is saying Don, is it gives us one thing to focus on, one thing to defend, while we put all the attack guns out on Hillary.

TRUMP: There's no Twitter on this phone

MANAFORT: That's what makes it secure Don.

TRUMP: Not gonna release my tax returns. It'll kill me.

PRIEBUS: But it won't kill the party, that's the key ...

MANAFORT: ... hold it Reince. Look Don, We need to do this. We really need to do this. In fact, er, we've done it already about five minutes ago.

TRUMP: LOSER! %&$£$! This is all your fault!

MANAFORT: Actually, no Don. We had Meredith McIver do it. So the whole thing's deniable. Good luck Don. You're booked on MSNBC in an hour's time. Fancy a beer Reince?
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Chi said:
Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti
More D moves: In addition to cutting back in CO, Clinton super PAC Priorities is also scaling back its VA TV ad buy in the coming weeks.,
Click to expand...

Hope the Clinton campaign is going to re-allocate this money to GA, AZ, and MO.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Iolo said:
We were visciously attacked by Super Mario. Visciously attacked. Are we not allowed to respond?
Click to expand...

I think it would be best if Mario apologized to us and we apologized to Mario.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Actually, you know, the tax return is a good angle to take. Like, it'd give the media something to chew on. Maybe don't release them all. Maybe just one random year where there's something unfortunate in them, but not totally embarrassing. Because, ya, that's just one fire you can focus on. It's not the worst idea ever...especially considering where they are right now.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Brace yourselves.. MSNBC is teasing that he's going to take the stage at a rally "soon."

This setting, along with interviews, is where he really goes off the script. He can't help himself. He feeds off of the loons in the audience.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
BrokenFiction said:
Go read https://twitter.com/MattMackowiak right now. (GOP Strategist)

Gems:

1) We are at a crisis point. The wheels are off. Blowout election loss now likely. Trump's numbers are worsening across the board.

2/ Options are now limited since convention has ended. He cannot be thrown off ballot. He has to withdraw. He must be sold on this.

3/ Ballot withdrawal deadlines vary by state, but if he's not out by late Aug it's too late. TX deadline is Aug. 26, for example.

4/ We are in completely uncharted we territory here. Nominee hemorrhaging support, doesn't care, is intentionally damaging our candidates.

...and many more.
Click to expand...

Great points but I disagree about his children. The argument presented assumes his children are rational actors: they aren't. His sons in particular display the exact same paranoia and weird behavior that their father does. Whenever I hear Trump say "a lot of people are writing about x, a lot of people are saying x, it's out there" it becomes clear he is constantly being fed inaccurate news information from fringe sources. The same types of sources that convince your granddad that Obama is going to enact martial law. Both his sons have given the impression they take these "sources" seriously too. If I had to guess I'd say Trump has far right fringe sources that feed him information before it's sent to Breitbart and similar sites. Trump is very close with Roger Ailes, who has spent decades living in the muck of the fringe right. The typical far right FUD pattern is that it starts on fringe sites, moves to more prominent fringe sites, reaches right wing talk radio, and then finds its way to Fox News. I wouldn't be stunned if Trump has access to a lot of batshit stuff that doesn't make it to Fox News.

I'm going to assume that Trump treats internal polling the same way he treats his news consumption. His polls are probably showing a close race, maybe with him in a slight lead. Obviously this information is fraudulent but Trump is only interested in news that confirms his worldview.

The point being is that Trump and his sons are likely convinced that he is close to winning the election, so withdrawing is not an option. I also think his commanding GOP primary victory convinced him that this is real, it can be done, and he's not going to let establishment figures in the GOP convince him otherwise. If anything, I'd expect him to lash out at establishment figures who are trying to calm him down. This will likely culminate with him axing Manafort and promoting one of his sons to be his campaign manager.
 
J

jon bones

hot hot hanuman-on-man action
HylianTom said:
Brace yourselves.. MSNBC is teasing that he's going to take the stage at a rally "soon."

This setting, along with interviews, is where he really goes off the script. He can't help himself. He feeds off of the loons in the audience.
Click to expand...

i can't wait!
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Dammit, I need a nap, but I have to watch him take the stage. Trying to figure out if he'll be raging or neutered. I kind of think maybe he's going to try to reign it in. If he does, I'll bet a big vein is popping out of his forehead.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Cesare Borgia said:
Great points but I disagree about his children. The argument presented assumes his children are rational actors: they aren't. His sons in particular display the exact same paranoia and weird behavior that their father does. Whenever I hear Trump say "a lot of people are writing about x, a lot of people are saying x, it's out there" it becomes clear he is constantly being fed inaccurate news information from fringe sources. The same types of sources that convince your granddad that Obama is going to enact martial law. Both his sons have given the impression they take these "sources" seriously too. If I had to guess I'd say Trump has far right fringe sources that feed him information before it's sent to Breitbart and similar sites. Trump is very close with Roger Ailes, who has spent decades living in the muck of the fringe right. The typical far right FUD pattern is that it starts on fringe sites, moves to more prominent fringe sites, reaches right wing talk radio, and then finds its way to Fox News. I wouldn't be stunned if Trump has access to a lot of batshit stuff that doesn't make it to Fox News.

I'm going to assume that Trump treats internal polling the same way he treats his news consumption. His polls are probably showing a close race, maybe with him in a slight lead. Obviously this information is fraudulent but Trump is only interested in news that confirms his worldview.

The point being is that Trump and his sons are likely convinced that he is close to winning the election, so withdrawing is not an option. I also think his commanding GOP primary victory convinced him that this is real, it can be done, and he's not going to let establishment figures in the GOP convince him otherwise. If anything, I'd expect him to lash out at establishment figures who are trying to calm him down. This will likely culminate with him axing Manafort and promoting one of his sons to be his campaign manager.
Click to expand...

While I agree with the far-right sources being a systemic problem for both Trump and his sons, your part about 'lots of people are saying' misreads the gulf between what he's actually hearing / seeing and his part at playing permanent salesperson.

Lots of people are saying is not a red flag that he has lots of bad sources (though he does!), it's a red flag that he's bullshitting. While I've never been on a sales call with Trump or his company, I 100% guarantee that's a verbal tic developed over the years to instill confidence in the mark / target / customer based on an imaginary set of experts that Trump supposedly relies on.

So sure, Trump has catastrophically bad sources. But the reveal here is not his bad sources, but that his 'lots of people are saying' is simply bullshit he brings to whatever negotiation he's conducting.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
"We have a candidate who appears mentally unstable. That would be funny if this was an episode of Veep. But it's not. This is real life."
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Cesare Borgia said:
I also think his commanding GOP primary victory convinced him that this is real, it can be done, and he's not going to let establishment figures in the GOP convince him otherwise. If anything, I'd expect him to lash out at establishment figures who are trying to calm him down.
Click to expand...
This is a great point. The "Teflon don" meme was and is absurdly sticky for the population as a whole. I can't even imagine how powerful that narrative is internally.

In Trump world, a bunch of haters told Don he couldn't win, and then he won. So the problem isn't with him. It's with the haters. He doesn't get a chance to correct that story until election night, when he is ranting about how we're not a democracy and calling for revolution.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Intheflorsh said:
Remember how panicked GAF was over those 538 polls two weeks ago?
Click to expand...

Hence why Trump quitting over 1 week of miscues isn't actually going to happen. He still has a puncher's chance.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
phisheep said:
Pah, youngsters. I was born under Eisenhower.

Now, I had one of my dreams about Trump's campaign management trying to take the focus off the current dumpster fire. It went something like this:

MANAFORT: Hey, Donald. We've got to take the focus off all the recent car crash stuff.

TRUMP: That's Mister Trump to you, loser.

MANAFORT: Yeah sure, whatever. By the way I got you a new phone. Nice phone. Got diamonds in the home button. Plus, it's secure. Hugely secure.

TRUMP: (twiddling with phone) So what's this idea you got - by the way, WHAT CAR CRASH??

MANAFORT: Never mind the vehicles Don. Thing is, we have to close down the shit that is flying around. Crazy corrupt shit I know, but it's damaging us, er, you. Cleared it with Reince too.

PRIEBUS: Yeah, schure diddly.

MANAFORT: So what we do is we release your tax returns.

TRUMP: No way Bud. Hey, who is that on CNN? Hot!

PRIEBUS: No really Mister Trump. See, if you release your tax returns then the media, OK the MASSIVELY CORRUPT MEDIA, will talk about nothing else for the next two months. And it is entirely personal to you Donald Mister Trump Shir Thing and it won't rebound on the Repub ....

MANAFORT: ... What Reince is saying Don, is it gives us one thing to focus on, one thing to defend, while we put all the attack guns out on Hillary.

TRUMP: There's no Twitter on this phone

MANAFORT: That's what makes it secure Don.

TRUMP: Not gonna release my tax returns. It'll kill me.

PRIEBUS: But it won't kill the party, that's the key ...

MANAFORT: ... hold it Reince. Look Don, We need to do this. We really need to do this. In fact, er, we've done it already about five minutes ago.

TRUMP: LOSER! %&$£$! This is all your fault!

MANAFORT: Actually, no Don. We had Meredith McIver do it. So the whole thing's deniable. Good luck Don. You're booked on MSNBC in an hour's time. Fancy a beer Reince?
Click to expand...

This is great. Incidentally, my cousin is convinced Meredith McIver doesn't exist at all, which is fun to contemplate in the age of John Miller. Just one more unexplored Trump mystery to be revealed in the next Game Change.
 
Grizzlyjin

Grizzlyjin

Supersonic, idiotic, disconnecting, not respecting, who would really ever wanna go and top that
I love how often people on CNN are using the term "dumpster fire." It's officially part of the 2016 Race lexicon.
 
T

TopDreg

Member
Alright, I'm back. I haven't missed too much, right? All I see so far is that Trump asked three times, to a foreign policy expert, about why we can't use nuclear weapons. Uh.
 
I

Iolo

Member
HylianTom said:
Brace yourselves.. MSNBC is teasing that he's going to take the stage at a rally "soon."

This setting, along with interviews, is where he really goes off the script. He can't help himself. He feeds off of the loons in the audience.
Click to expand...

No, Manafort promised today that Trump would be laser-focused on taking the fight to Hillary at this rally.

sure jan
 
P

PBY

Banned
Im off work and... man, cant lie Ima be glued to this trump rally in 10 mins

anyone know when he specifically is going to speak?
 
The Lamonster

The Lamonster

Member
So it's in FL today? That is just so perfect.

He's going to feed off all the crazy people as he does, but they've gotta be extra crazy in FL.
 
C

CCS

Banned
phisheep said:
Pah, youngsters. I was born under Eisenhower.

Now, I had one of my dreams about Trump's campaign management trying to take the focus off the current dumpster fire. It went something like this:

MANAFORT: Hey, Donald. We've got to take the focus off all the recent car crash stuff.

TRUMP: That's Mister Trump to you, loser.

MANAFORT: Yeah sure, whatever. By the way I got you a new phone. Nice phone. Got diamonds in the home button. Plus, it's secure. Hugely secure.

TRUMP: (twiddling with phone) So what's this idea you got - by the way, WHAT CAR CRASH??

MANAFORT: Never mind the vehicles Don. Thing is, we have to close down the shit that is flying around. Crazy corrupt shit I know, but it's damaging us, er, you. Cleared it with Reince too.

PRIEBUS: Yeah, schure diddly.

MANAFORT: So what we do is we release your tax returns.

TRUMP: No way Bud. Hey, who is that on CNN? Hot!

PRIEBUS: No really Mister Trump. See, if you release your tax returns then the media, OK the MASSIVELY CORRUPT MEDIA, will talk about nothing else for the next two months. And it is entirely personal to you Donald Mister Trump Shir Thing and it won't rebound on the Repub ....

MANAFORT: ... What Reince is saying Don, is it gives us one thing to focus on, one thing to defend, while we put all the attack guns out on Hillary.

TRUMP: There's no Twitter on this phone

MANAFORT: That's what makes it secure Don.

TRUMP: Not gonna release my tax returns. It'll kill me.

PRIEBUS: But it won't kill the party, that's the key ...

MANAFORT: ... hold it Reince. Look Don, We need to do this. We really need to do this. In fact, er, we've done it already about five minutes ago.

TRUMP: LOSER! %&$£$! This is all your fault!

MANAFORT: Actually, no Don. We had Meredith McIver do it. So the whole thing's deniable. Good luck Don. You're booked on MSNBC in an hour's time. Fancy a beer Reince?
Click to expand...

You are the best gaf poster

Except for bae obviously :p
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
PantherLotus said:
While I agree with the far-right sources being a systemic problem for both Trump and his sons, your part about 'lots of people are saying' misreads the gulf between what he's actually hearing / seeing and his part at playing permanent salesperson.

Lots of people are saying is not a red flag that he has lots of bad sources (though he does!), it's a red flag that he's bullshitting. While I've never been on a sales call with Trump or his company, I 100% guarantee that's a verbal tic developed over the years to instill confidence in the mark / target / customer based on an imaginary set of experts that Trump supposedly relies on.

So sure, Trump has catastrophically bad sources. But the reveal here is not his bad sources, but that his 'lots of people are saying' is simply bullshit he brings to whatever negotiation he's conducting.
Click to expand...

I'm going to agree here, "people are saying, a lot of people have told me" is his way of saying BS and not having to answer for it-- either the truth of it, or for the appropriateness of it. He uses it to say made up stuff, he also uses it to try to soften something he knows is probably over the line.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Trump doesn't own it anymore because he went bankrupt on it...and then he wouldn't reinvest in it once it was sold. But, ya, people aren't going to do research into it. They'll just hear "Trump Taj Mahal" is going under.

OPTICS
 
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