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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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Crocodile

Member
Actually asking this seriously - how am I supposed to evaluate the actual risk of Russia as a threat in light of Obama's response at the time?

To be honest, I'm far more worried about knock-on effects / proxy wars that result from a renewed cold war with Russia.

Are you absorbing right-wing talking points now?


  • Obama administration underestimated how perverse the Russian intrusion was - its been said they learned even more after the election!
  • Obama is beholden to rules and norms - sometimes to his detriment.
  • Fox News, McConnell, Trump and the rest of the GOP was going to make coming out more publicly/forceful as painful as possible. If you thought the cries of FAKE NEWS were bad before.....
  • Obama legit thought Clinton was going to win - making less of a stink makes more sense if you're sure Clinton is going to win
  • Even if Obama dropped the ball, the biggest current issue is how Trump is now doing jack all about it! They'll be back and they are still doing shit worldwide!
Just because Obama made a mistake (though his hands were tied in various real ways) doesn't make the Russia less of a big deal
 

PBY

Banned
Are you absorbing right-wing talking points now?


  • Obama administration underestimated how perverse the Russian intrusion was - its been said they learned even more after the election!
  • Obama is beholden to rules and norms - sometimes to his detriment.
  • Fox News, McConnell, Trump and the rest of the GOP was going to make coming out more publicly/forceful as painful as possible. If you thought the cries of FAKE NEWS were bad before.....
  • Obama legit thought Clinton was going to win - making less of a stink makes more sense if you're sure Clinton is going to win
  • Even if Obama dropped the ball, the biggest current issue is how Trump is ding jack all about it!
Just because Obama made a mistake (though his hands were tied in various real ways) doesn't make the Russia less of a big deal

I mean, if the answer is Obama made a mistake, I totally accept that. Its also not a RW talking point, its common sense - if it is this tremendous, fundamental threat to democracy and free and fair elections, you wouldn't let politics get in the way, I'm sorry. Those two cannot be squared.
 
How long does the Senate have to ram their bill through under reconciliation? I thought the deadline was back in April but is the GOP just changing the rules as they go?
 

Zolo

Member
How long does the Senate have to ram their bill through under reconciliation? I thought the deadline was back in April but is the GOP just changing the rules as they go?

From what I heard, August? I don't think there's a technical deadline, but they have to set a budget at some point?
 
Uh because he was the president at the time and in the best position to know exactly what the fuck was happening?
I'm sure he, like everyone else, thought Clinton had it in the bag, so instead of blowing up the election (remember republicans were threatening to turn it into a huge partisan thing), he decided to take a milder option figuring we'd have a bunch of adults in the room to tackle the issue head-on afterwards. Hindsight is 20/20.
 

Crocodile

Member
I mean, if the answer is Obama made a mistake, I totally accept that. Its also not a RW talking point, its common sense - if it is this tremendous, fundamental threat to democracy and free and fair elections, you wouldn't let politics get in the way, I'm sorry. Those two cannot be squared.

I mean your statements, specifically the bolded:

Of course.

I want the investigation to be fulsome and thorough. And then for me to hear the results after its complete. These oppo drops are, in hindsight, just noise. Also, if it was this huge tremendous threat to democracy, why didn't Obama do anything?

Actually asking this seriously - how am I supposed to evaluate the actual risk of Russia as a threat in light of Obama's response at the time?

To be honest, I'm far more worried about knock-on effects / proxy wars that result from a renewed cold war with Russia.

Sure do sound like RW talking points. I mean we know Obama holds himself to norms and likes to seek bipartisanship to a fault. It was a problem many times in is presidency. Just because he made the wrong choices in hindsight doesn't make Russia less of an issue.
 

PBY

Banned
I mean your statements, specifically the bolded:





Sure do sound like RW talking points. I mean we know Obama holds himself to norms and likes to seek bipartisanship to a fault. It was a problem many times in is presidency. Just because he made the wrong choices in hindsight doesn't make Russia less of an issue.

Norms and bipartisanship cannot supersede a problem if you believe it to be a fundamental threat to democracy and a threat to free and fair elections. Those cannot be squared.

I can totally accept thinking he thought it wasn't as severe and hindsight is 20/20. that makes sense.
 
I'm sure he, like everyone else, thought Clinton had it in the bag, so instead of blowing up the election (remember republicans were threatening to turn it into a huge partisan thing), he decided to take a milder option figuring we'd have a bunch of adults in the room to tackle the issue head-on afterwards. Hindsight is 20/20.

I don't think hindsight matters. It was an unforgivably bad decision to not take action for this reason.

In situations like this, they have to get it right. He made a poor judgement call and we are up shit creek because of it.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I don't think hindsight matters. It was an unforgivably bad decision to not take action for this reason.

In situations like this, they have to get it right. He made a poor judgement call and we are up shit creek because of it.

You're leaving out the fact that the GOP threatened to turn it into a partisan issue if he tried addressing it. If you think the House and Senate Committees are useless now...

I'm fairly certain almost the whole world made a big mistake regarding Putin and Russia.

Everyone was worried about a military threat, not an ideological one. Even those that warned about Russia never saw this style of attack coming. Putin adapted to modern warfare far quicker than the rest of the world. If nukes mean you can fight a country on the battlefield, then you've got to find another way to attack them. And for Putin that means attacking our institutions directly.
 
I don't think hindsight matters. It was an unforgivably bad decision to not take action for this reason.

In situations like this, they have to get it right. He made a poor judgement call and we are up shit creek because of it.

Literally a 50% chance we'd be saying he should have kept his mouth shut right now.
 
You're leaving out the fact that the GOP threatened to turn it into a partisan issue if he tried addressing it. If you think the House and Senate Committees are useless now....

Lets assume the polling was in reverse.

Lets say from the beginning it looked like Trump was going to win. And Hillary was sinking. Does Obama handle the situation in the same way? If that was the case, I doubt Obama would care as much about the threats of turning it into a partisan issue

Point is, if he approached this going "Hey, I should say something about this.. But meh.. Hillary's up in the polls so not worth it". Then that was a horrible decision.
 

Sibylus

Banned
Russia is a significant threat to the stability of Western liberal democracy. Not just in the US. Like I'm not sure why anyone would dispute this.

Failure to pay attention to current events, I guess? Obama was right to pursue detente... but that feels like an age ago and much has happened since.
 

shem935

Banned
Lets assume the polling was in reverse.

Lets say from the beginning it looked like Trump was going to win. And Hillary was sinking. Does Obama handle the situation in the same way? If that was the case, I doubt Obama would care as much about the threats of turning it into a partisan issue

Point is, if he approached this going "Hey, I should say something about this.. But meh.. Hillary's up in the polls so not worth it". Then that was a horrible decision.

Actually I very much doubt he would change that decision if the rolls were switched.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Lets assume the polling was in reverse.

Lets say from the beginning it looked like Trump was going to win. And Hillary was sinking. Does Obama handle the situation in the same way? If that was the case, I doubt Obama would care as much about the threats of turning it into a partisan issue would matter as much

Point is, if he approached this going "Hey, I should say something about this.. But meh.. Hillary's up in the polls so not worth it". Then that was a horrible decision.

It was more "if I do something here I risk turning the most pressing national defense issue of our time into a political football, but if I wait and gather as much info as I can then Clinton can address it without it turning into a hot mess."
 
I don't think hindsight matters. It was an unforgivably bad decision to not take action for this reason.

In situations like this, they have to get it right. He made a poor judgement call and we are up shit creek because of it.
And if he did more and Trump won anyway, we'd still be in a shithole of a situation. Whatever Obama did, it would still be on the next administration to continue the work and try to prevent it from happening again.
 
Literally a 50% chance we'd be saying he should have kept his mouth shut right now.

Like, I get there are damned if you do damned if you don't situations where nothing looks like the right answer. But you can't just go "meh all options sucked".

Our leaders have to get these situations right. Sure in a hypothetical scenario where he acted differently and we are still are were we are we'd be saying the opposite.. But we aren't. We are were we are because of many decisions that were made were not sufficient in preventing it from happening.

We've seen how Trump has handled the accusations since he got elected. It is totally possible had the pressure been brought on him sooner he would have made the situation 100 times worse for himself and brought himself down like he's doing right now.. like, before he got into the White House.
 

Vixdean

Member
What did people want Obama to do, exactly? Hillary had been taking about Russia since at least August, no one cared. The Wikileaks DNC stuff was attributed to Russia almost immediately after it happened, no one cared. The IC put out the joint statement more than a month before the election, no one cared. Trump and his buddies were out there publicly stanning for Russia since the Spring, and it didn't bother anyone. Hell we knew about Manafort, Flynn and Jill Stein's Russian connections from the jump, and no one gave a shit. What public reveal or statement by Obama do you think would have made any substantive difference?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
What did people want Obama to do, exactly? Hillary had been taking about Russia since at least August, no one cared. The Wikileaks DNC stuff was attributed to Russia almost immediately after it happened, no one cared. The IC put out the joint statement more than a month before the election, no one cared. Trump and his buddies were out there publicly stanning for Russia since the Spring, and it didn't bother anyone. What public reveal or statement by Obama do you think would have made any substantive difference?

She brought up Russian interference in a goddamn debate, remember "no puppet, no puppet"? She got laughed at by the press for doing it the very next day. Literally laughed at.
 
What did people want Obama to do, exactly? Hillary had been taking about Russia since at least August, no one cared. The Wikileaks DNC stuff was attributed to Russia almost immediately after it happened, no one cared. The IC put out the joint statement more than a month before the election, no one cared. Trump and his buddies were out there publicly stanning for Russia since the Spring, and it didn't bother anyone. Hell we knew about Manafort, Flynn and Jill Stein's Russian connections from the jump, and no one gave a shit. What public reveal or statement by Obama do you think would have made any substantive difference?

It isn't so much "X should have been done as it would have solved everything", as it is I think in a similar situation in the future, this is a good model for what shouldn't be done by someone in a similar situation to Obama's.

I have a similar feeling towards the situation in Syria. it's a mess but it's hard to argue how it was handled was the correct approach and should be replicated in the future.

Like I'm not "blaming" him but I'm not going to say he did everything he could have done either.
 

CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
It's also hard to respond to issues that complex when (a) you're still finding the contours of it all, and (b) one branch of government (the legislature) and parts of another (the executive) have become paralyzed by partisanship.
 
Not to distract from the Obama/Russia discussion, but the Manafort story from WaPo, despite eliciting shoulder shrugs, might be building to something. I said yesterday that the Carter Page story seemed to be setting the stage for some major revelation sometime this week. The Manafort story today could be the next chapter. TICK TICK BOOM looks and sounds obnoxious and decidedly immoderate and un-darling-like, so I'll say that we might get the climax of the story after having gotten the exposition and rising action. (I've been planning lessons for next year.)
 

chadskin

Member
Not to distract from the Obama/Russia discussion, but the Manafort story from WaPo, despite eliciting shoulder shrugs, might be building to something. I said yesterday that the Carter Page story seemed to be setting the stage for some major revelation sometime this week. The Manafort story today could be the next chapter. TICK TICK BOOM looks and sounds obnoxious and decidedly immoderate and un-darling-like, so I'll say that we might get the climax of the story after having gotten the exposition and rising action. (I've been planning lessons for next year.)

Well, it's a felony if you fail to declare you lobby on behalf of a foreign government. One possibility why Manafort did so now is that he's cooperating with the FBI.
 

KingK

Member
What did people want Obama to do, exactly? Hillary had been taking about Russia since at least August, no one cared. The Wikileaks DNC stuff was attributed to Russia almost immediately after it happened, no one cared. The IC put out the joint statement more than a month before the election, no one cared. Trump and his buddies were out there publicly stanning for Russia since the Spring, and it didn't bother anyone. Hell we knew about Manafort, Flynn and Jill Stein's Russian connections from the jump, and no one gave a shit. What public reveal or statement by Obama do you think would have made any substantive difference?

Yeah, I'd been bringing up the Russia thing to people I know since last summer. Right after the election I made a huge facebook post linking to all the known/suspicious connections between his campaign and Russia. I was laughed at and called a conspiracy theorist. As the months rolled by, literally every point/connection I brought up had some new story break that validated or reinforced it. And people still don't care.

We've known most of this shit for a year now, and almost nobody seems to give a shit. Even some liberals I know think I'm crazy, and this is just the left's version of a partisan Benghazi conspiracy. Even a lot of liberals, and most apathetic independents and non-voters have fully bought into the notion that anything that isn't explicitly right wing media is liberal media by default, and must be biased. Even many people who hate Trump still think the Russia thing is mostly fake or not a big deal. It's getting extremely frustrating how lightly so many people are taking this. Like, Russia is literally trying to break western, liberal democracies beyond repair through espionage and cyberwarfare, the president of the United States was almost undoubtedly complicit and an accessory, and people just go "meh."
 
Poor turtle.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/...repeal.html?src=twr&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

WASHINGTON — Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, has long enjoyed a reputation as a master tactician. But when it comes to repealing the Affordable Care Act, he seems to have miscalculated in the first round of play.

He assumed that his conservative and moderate colleagues would come together to make good on their seven-year promise to repeal the health care law, and quickly.

But when he assembled a group of senators to cobble together a health care bill last month, he seemed to go out of his way to exclude some of the most knowledgeable members and moderate voices on health care, like Senators Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, a doctor, and Susan Collins of Maine, an insurance expert and one of the few women in the Senate Republican conference. Views outside of Mr. McConnell’s on health care did not receive extensive consideration.

When Republicans from states that had expanded their Medicaid programs quickly found themselves at odds with more conservative members who wanted a large rollback of Medicaid, Mr. McConnell did little to allay those worries. Conservatives generally wanted to rein in costs while moderate members wanted to increase spending, particularly in states where health care costs are high and opioid addiction is escalating.

On those key issues, Mr. McConnell put his legislative thumb on the scale in favor of conservatives, quickly alienating many senators from states that had expanded Medicaid, such as Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Ms. Collins, who became an early and vocal opponent of the bill.

Ms. Murkowski raised concerns on several levels. She expressed worries about soaring health care costs in rural areas, about women’s access to health care if Planned Parenthood were defunded, and about how the most vulnerable citizens, such as Alaska Natives, would get health care. Those concerns were largely unanswered.

“I certainly wasn’t ready,” Ms. Murkowski said of voting on the bill after Mr. McConnell announced on Tuesday that it would be put off until after the Fourth of July recess.

Mr. Heller gave voice — an early and deeply unappreciated one, it seems, from Mr. McConnell’s perspective — to a number of senators from across the spectrum who were feeling pressure from their governors, and in some cases state insurance officials, to resist any bill that was going to raise premiums, increase the number of uninsured or anything else that officials there disliked.

Then there is the not-so-small matter of President Trump, who in any other universe would be the greatest asset Mr. McConnell could have, but has turned out to be quite the opposite. Republican senators all watched carefully as Mr. Trump at times berated, cajoled and mildly wooed House Republicans, who had their own divisions, to get to yes on their version of a health care bill.

After celebrating in the Rose Garden with Speaker Paul D. Ryan and a bevy of other Republicans, Mr. Trump turned around and told senators that the House bill was “mean.”

This allowed Republican senators to understand that, as in most areas, Mr. Trump is a mercurial force at best on health care policy. What is more, even though a group that supports him came out with a vicious ad attacking Mr. Heller — and hinted that it would spread to other senators who opposed the health care law — senators are also keenly aware that Mr. Trump did not win the White House by promising to take away voters’ Medicaid.

He may get there, but he's not the master tactician he would want us to think he is.
 

Blader

Member
I mean, if the answer is Obama made a mistake, I totally accept that. Its also not a RW talking point, its common sense - if it is this tremendous, fundamental threat to democracy and free and fair elections, you wouldn't let politics get in the way, I'm sorry. Those two cannot be squared.

If McConnell, Ryan, et al. are going to politicize an Obama response to Russia as a partisan line, then that would be even more damaging: it undermines the threat of the Russian cyberattack by characterizing it as an unsupported excuse by the Democrats and it implicitly accuses the president of abusing executive authority to support his party's candidate in the election. The only thing worse than a foreign government trying to manipulate free and fair American elections is our own government trying to manipulate our free and fair elections!
 
Poor turtle.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/...repeal.html?src=twr&smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

He may get there, but he's not the master tactician he would want us to think he is.

Wow, this entire thing was misplay after misplay after misplay, and it seems hard to clean up at this point.

Mr. Heller gave voice — an early and deeply unappreciated one, it seems, from Mr. McConnell’s perspective — to a number of senators from across the spectrum who were feeling pressure from their governors, and in some cases state insurance officials, to resist any bill that was going to raise premiums, increase the number of uninsured or anything else that officials there disliked.

This is going to be really hard to overcome unless they completely gut the Medicaid stuff from the bill. Which they can't really do because that's where all their money saving comes from.
 
Kirblar right yet again re: state GOP parties. On the federal level, Republicans have embraced extremity and obstruction - well, some of them - but at the state level, they have to be somewhat moderate to get elected in blue or blue-leaning states (e.g., Baker in MA, Martinez in NM, Sandoval in NV). They object to this far-right monstrosity because it'll kill their states.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Kirblar right yet again re: state GOP parties. On the federal level, Republicans have embraced extremity and obstruction, but at the state level, they have to be somewhat moderate to get elected in blue or blue-leaning states (e.g., Baker in MA, Martinez in NM, Sandoval in NV). They object to this far-right monstrosity because it'll kill their states.

Rock and a hard place. That's a shame.
 
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