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PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house

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V

VendettaRed07

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Judging by all of the hearings this year, Franken is one of like five congresspeople with serviceable public speaking skills
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Pretty much how I feel.

Everyone else outside of a handful sound too much like a lawyer constantly speaking in technicalities that normally people don't get or phrased in a way even if they do, is so boring that they don't care.
 
J

JWiLL

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
"All I did was post how the fake news Washington Post was forced to admit they have nothing on Trump and all of a sudden people started calling me alt-right."
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This is the problem though. You should be allowed to question things without being immediately called "alt right".

Especially when the actual "alt right" is something far more fucked up.

Don't be Twitter/Antifa.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
skullmuffins said:
I mean if these random twitter theories were being presented as speculation by the tweeter, that would be one thing. They're not, though.


That doesn't read as speculation, it reads as fact. Hence people asking if she's a reliable source.
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To which I responded, "Hell no" and simply said her thread reminded me of the FinCEN story from back in May:

Autodidact said:
Read further down the lady's Twitter thread. She speculates that they've found a monetary paper trail and cites a request for FinCEN documents that, as she correctly recalls, "was big news for a day."
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That claim about the story being big news briefly was correct and led me to revisit it. That's all.
 
J

JWiLL

Banned
VendettaRed07 said:
Pretty much how I feel.

Everyone else outside of a handful sound too much like a lawyer constantly speaking in technicalities that normally people don't get or phrased in a way even if they do, is so boring that they don't care.
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Yeah he's definitely one of the more "relatable" speakers. I think it works better for him outside of certain hearings though.

It was hard for him to take a hardline stance against Gorsuch, for example, when he seemed unsure of the content matter. His point was valid though.
 
B

BoogieWoogie

Banned
This is great

DDbiQzEU0AA4xoe.jpg
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
I'm hoping we can win an 06-sized majority, around 230 seats.

Obviously I'd be happy if we hit 218.
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If I recall correctly, 2006 had a D+7 lean. Nate Cohn recently estimated we'd need anywhere from a 7-to-12-point advantage to reclaim the House. This poll makes me cautiously optimistic.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
I'm not even on the Brown train as much as I used to be (someone younger is probably better and Brown is so good in the senate for us) but do people really not like his speaking? I love his gravelly voice.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
I'm not even on the Brown train as much as I used to be (someone younger is probably better and Brown is so good in the senate for us) but do people really not like his speaking? I love his gravelly voice.
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I love his hot daddy smoker voice.

But I think when people criticize speaking skills, they mean to criticize the awkward, hackneyed way that some politicians speak.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Autodidact said:
If I recall correctly, 2006 had a D+7 lean. Nate Cohn recently estimated we'd need anywhere from a 7-to-12-point advantage to reclaim the House. This poll makes me cautiously optimistic.
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Problem is there's no rule of thumb here. We could win the House back with a 5 or 6-point lead if we overperformed in swing seats. Based on the recent specials though I wouldn't be surprised if we puffed up our generic vote lead by overperforming in safe D/R seats while falling short in swing seats.
 
TheLaughingStock

TheLaughingStock

Member
Veritigo_X said:
This is some weird Trump fan fiction. Trump "directing the DOJ" lmao. Have you been following this administration at all?
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Yes.

Also, how is antitrust scrutiny and enforcement "weird fan fiction" given the gist of Trump's criticisms in the media of Bezos? The administration could start shifting resources to those efforts if they want to at any given time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/washin...ntitrust-scrutiny-under-trump/2/#4d5712f077e2

AndyD said:
If evenly applied, sure. Looking at the subsidies offered to oil industry and military would be a great start.
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I agree. Although, a business like Amazon would be among the top targets. I welcome anyone on the right or the left that is looking to get serious about government regulation and antitrust. It's a big reason why so much of the US has gone down the tubes in my mind over over the past 40-50 years. Very important stuff to me.
 
J

jmdajr

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Expanding Medicaid did cause an increase in opioid addiction but that's just because expanding Medicaid caused an increase in access to medicine.

Medicine was very bad with regards to opiods, we should have used marijuana instead.

But the core of the argument is "medicine is bad" which is one of the most radical ideas of all time if Republicans actually believed it.
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Sure, more access. But the direct correlation is silly.

"My life was fine, then I got on Medicaid and my life was ruined."
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
T

Teggy

Member
Hadn't read that before. Very much not surprised that McConnell was/is a Russian hacking truther and prevented them from going forward.
 
E

Ernest

Banned
PBY said:
This is "old" no? This has been discussed at length, they did a segment on this on pod save america earlier this week
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No, I didn't mean the article itself, but the part they're withholding - could that be the bombshell that's yet to drop?
 
S

skullmuffins

Banned
Teggy said:
So what is the deal with this chart trump just posted? I know it is being misinterpreted, but how?
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the increase compared to what it would under the current law is slashed dramatically. medicaid will still grow in absolute $ (but that results in less healthcare per person once you factor in things like population growth and medical inflation)
 
T

Teggy

Member
skullmuffins said:
the increase compared to what it would under the current law is slashed dramatically. medicaid will still grow in absolute $ (but that results in less healthcare per person once you factor in things like population growth and medical inflation)
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Ah, yeah I did a bit more reading and it just lacks context. This chart shows how Medicaid will look compared to leaving the law alone.

http://e.infogram.com/_/Gwlp7uk80rhC0yMOoeKL?src=embed
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
*cost of living increases 4% every year*

*Boss promises to raise your pay 5% every year to compensate*

*new boss enters*

"Were only gong to raise your pay 2%. Oh but it's not a cut."
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Interesting.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-div...sults-tell-us-about-the-battle-for-the-house/

One reason so many political pundits have been following special election results is that they serve as a leading indicator of the political environment heading into 2018. However, the obvious downside is that they represent only five data points. While some election analysts may extrapolate from the five topline results that Democrats are over-performing more in white working class districts like South Carolina 5 while struggling in affluent suburban districts like Georgia 6, they ignore potentially confounding variables like candidate quality, perceived competitiveness, and state political environments. Drawing conclusions about the battle for the House from state legislative races is also problematic because these elections are much less related to Trump and Congress.

By expanding our analysis to include counties and precincts, we can analyze hundreds of data points rather than a handful. This gives us a much more robust data set to test our original question: how are partisan coalitions developing during the Trump era?
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As we can see in this chart, the most accurate predictor is ‘25% Obama + 75% Clinton.’ On average over the four elections, 94.4% of the variation in Democrat vote percentage by precinct can be explained by a 75/25 weighted average of the past two presidential results. Very close behind in basically a statistical tie is the ‘100% Clinton’ predictor.

What these results tell us is that House elections are largely driven by voter preferences from the 2016 presidential election. For example, in Georgia 6, the majority of Romney/Clinton voters likely pulled the lever for Ossoff. However, a significant minority returned to their pre-Trump partisan leanings and voted for Handel. While Democrats may hope to win all 23 of the Clinton districts represented by Republicans, some of them (like TX-07) may be just out of reach because of the vestigial strength of the Republican Party in these places.
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County and precinct results from this year tell us that we can best estimate a district’s political partisanship by calculating a 75/25 weighted average of its past two presidential results. In 2012, Romney beat Obama by 23.3 points in Georgia 6. Since Obama won nationwide by 3.9 points, Georgia 6 had a partisan lean of R+27.2 that election. In 2016, Trump beat Clinton by 1.5 points in Georgia 6. Since Clinton won nationwide by 2.1 points, Georgia 6 had a partisan lean of R+3.6 last November. Using our 75/25 weighted average, Georgia 6 currently has a partisan lean of R+9.5.

Georgia 6’s partisan lean of R+9.5 suggests that in a neutral environment nationwide, a Republican would win Georgia 6 by 9.5 points. Since Handel won by 3.73 points, this suggests that the nationwide political environment is roughly D+6. This makes sense intuitively, since Democrats currently lead in generic ballot polls by about 7 points. Given that Democrats need about a 5-8 point lead on the generic ballot to win the House, that battle is probably a toss-up right now.
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Using our 75/25 weighted average of the past two presidential results, we can determine the partisan lean of each of the 435 Congressional districts. This gives us a rough preview of which Republican seats are most winnable for Democrats, who need to gain 24 seats to win back control of the House. One caveat to keep in mind is that incumbency effects will affect race competitiveness, and we do not know for sure which representatives are retiring before the midterm elections.

Although a lot of attention has been given to the 23 GOP-held districts that Clinton won, several of them don’t make this list. For example, Republican Dana Rohrabacher represents a district that voted Clinton by 1.7 points in 2016, but is helped by Romney’s substantial 11.7 point victory in 2012. His future challenger may run into the same problem Ossoff faced – just enough #NeverTrump Republicans returning to their conservative roots to deny the Democrats a victory. On the contrary, several of the 24 most winnable seats for Democrats are districts that voted for Trump. This suggests that Democrats should give a second look at some of the white working class districts that swung heavily to Trump – a small amount of mean reversion here may be just what they need to win back the House.
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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Teggy said:
So what is the deal with this chart trump just posted? I know it is being misinterpreted, but how?
Click to expand...

Is this seriously the route they want to take here? That the cost savings in Medicaid is really what is going to help people?

How about telling people where those savings are going?
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
S

SomewhatGroovy

Banned
Fucking losing my mind

"They should drop the Russia investogation; CNN Producer admitted they have no proof" is something i have heard twice this week.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
RustyNails said:
Gaming side is a hot mess with the gamergater brigade. That should be my entertainment for tonight unless 6'o Oppo drops.
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They're Just Asking Questions(tm) is all.

You can't even have a dissenting opinion use gamergate tactics to spread gamergate talking points around these parts without people jumping on you.
 
Z

Zolo

Member
SomewhatGroovy said:
Fucking losing my mind

"They should drop the Russia investogation; CNN Producer admitted they have no proof" is something i have heard twice this week.
Click to expand...

I like how CNN is apparently the top expert on the Trump-Russia case when almost all of their stories about it are repeated from NYT, WaPo, etc. :/
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
whyamihere said:
You wouldn't know that if you asked a few posters here!
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That is true. I am still a fan of "Pick the right person (i.e., not ultra-liberal) to run in these areas and give it a shot."

Zolo said:
I like how CNN is apparently the top expert on the Trump-Russia case when almost all of their stories about it are repeated from NYT, WaPo, etc. :/
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Or the fact that it is constantly "fake news" until they decide it isn't.
 
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