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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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http://firehousestrategies.com/new-firehouse0ptimus-survey-trumps-shrinking-base/

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LV midterm voters in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Land line only. Kind of wish they showed us the states, but yeesh. Kind of makes it hard to see how the GOP wins any of the Obama/Trump Senate seats.

In April we asked how voters would respond if Trump failed to repeal Obamacare or overhaul the tax code before next year’s midterm elections. In our new survey, we found a 7% and 9% jump in the percentage of respondents saying they will not vote for current GOP office holders if these two items are not accomplished.

KEY POINT: Failure to deliver major legislative victories is raising the prospects of an electoral setback for Republicans next year.
Oh?
 

Valhelm

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Didnt Trump stop arming SDF recently, under orders from Putin?

No. The Trump administration formally ceased arming the Syrian rebels, who are very different from the SDF. While the Syrian rebels are almost homogeneously Sunni Muslims, very religious, and seek to overthrow the Syrian state, the SDF are a secular and multicultural organization that works with both the US and the Syrian government to fight ISIS and protect. I really doubt this is thanks to Russian influence, because it's the continuation of Obama-era policies that recognized that the Syrian rebels had little hope of overthrowing the Syrian government and were much too friendly with ISIS.

Getting into Syria as we did was an enormous mistake. Thanks to a long-term Saudi and Turkish presence among the Sunni militias, the revolution to overthrow Assad quickly became a struggle between secularism and Wahhabism. The $500 million we gave to Syrian rebels largely fell into the hands of ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates and did nothing other than prolong the inevitable government victory.
 
Toomey lucked out, the only way he won was the massive turnout that came out in semi-rural districts.

I can't believe Katie McGinty of all people was the closest to unseating an incumbent in a Trump state. She would've probably won if she had picked up all the main line voters who went Clinton/Toomey.

I really could use some state specific polls on favorables of LVs in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana tho (Manchin is kind of his own thing and I don't know if Trump's fablrables in West Virginia quite matter for him).
 
Was there a thread on Putin signing into law a ban on vpns in Russia? Pretty disturbing news.

Russia's fire wall is gonna become an actual serious version of China's.
 
I think all the Obama-Trump state Democrats are pretty safe. Trump getting elected was the best thing to happen to their electoral prospects.

Manchin and Tester seem like favorites for re-elect. Worried about Donnelly and McCaskill (but not excessively). Heitkamp strikes me as being somewhere in the middle of those two camps - not quite Lean D, but I wouldn't say it's a straight toss up either.
 

thefro

Member
I think all the Obama-Trump state Democrats are pretty safe. Trump getting elected was the best thing to happen to their electoral prospects.

Manchin and Tester seem like favorites for re-elect. Worried about Donnelly and McCaskill (but not excessively). Heitkamp strikes me as being somewhere in the middle of those two camps - not quite Lean D, but I wouldn't say it's a straight toss up either.

Messner and Rokita seem like they're going to have a really nasty primary, so whoever emerges there as Donnelly's opponent won't be at a hundred percent.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Was there a thread on Putin signing into law a ban on vpns in Russia? Pretty disturbing news.

Russia's fire wall is gonna become an actual serious version of China's.

Getting rid of VPNs is very difficult since they are accessed via encryption.
You can't know what traffic it is, you can only figure out it's a VPN and manually block it.

You can attempt to automate that process, but you are very likely to target many false positives.

China has the same problem is is basically using the manual targeting method, which causes people to have to either maintain multiple VPN subs, or continually change as they get shut-down.
 

Ogodei

Member
Heitkamp i think will get there for want of qualified opposition. Which is what might happen to McCaskill. Donnelly's the only one i'm really worried about.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
People were bitching about the term alt-left.
But, I think some form of the idea does exist.
 
I can't believe Katie McGinty of all people was the closest to unseating an incumbent in a Trump state. She would've probably won if she had picked up all the main line voters who went Clinton/Toomey.

I really could use some state specific polls on favorables of LVs in North Dakota, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana tho (Manchin is kind of his own thing and I don't know if Trump's fablrables in West Virginia quite matter for him).

How did McGinty keep apace with Hillary.

McGinty is the worst Democratic candidate for a major race that I've ever seen.
 
I wonder if Sestak would have won.

Primary relitigating what up

I actually saw a Sestak sticker the other day, which was funny because I live in Minnesota.
 

Ogodei

Member
I recall voting for the third guy for Senate in Pennsylvania, whose name i can no longer even remember. Mayor of Braddock PA (tiny factory ghost town near Pittsburgh).

Fedderman, was it?
 

Valhelm

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People were bitching about the term alt-left.
But, I think some form of the idea does exist.

Problem is that it's used to mean "anyone who's not a cut-and-paste Democrat".


What's the issue with this piece?

The American military and our intelligence services have more blood on their hands than Trump himself and are no friends of democracy. Vesting trust or power unto them isn't a great idea. As bad as Trump is, a military coup would probably make our country even worse. Liberals who cheer on that idea are dangerously naive.
 

Valhelm

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does alt-left really just mean folks who like Putin?

I see it used to describe pretty much anybody to the left of Kamala Harris. Hell, Kamala herself has some policy ideas that would get her slammed as a purity bro by a good portion of Democrat twitter.
 
does alt-left really just mean folks who like Putin?

I see it used to describe pretty much anybody to the left of Kamala Harris. Hell, Kamala herself has some policy ideas that would get her slammed as a purity bro by a good portion of Democrat twitter.

I'd personally apply it to the portion of the left that embraces anti-Americanism, anti-Western liberal order, anti-NATO, etc.
 

sphagnum

Banned
does alt-left really just mean folks who like Putin?

I see it used to describe pretty much anybody to the left of Kamala Harris. Hell, Kamala herself has some policy ideas that would get her slammed as a purity bro by a good portion of Democrat twitter.

Right, I think it's a phrase that doesn't really have a solid meaning and can just get used as a catchall term, which is why I don't like it. But there are some elements of the left who I think it can be agreed upon are not necessarily arguing in good faith or who could be under Russian influence who therefore I don't want to be lumped in with. I was responding to what royalan had posted.
 
Anti-Americanism?

We're really gonna take cues from the John Birch Society now?

I'll clarify. They embrace reflexive anti-Americanism to the point where anything America does must be bad and anything oppressive "socialist" regimes do must be good - not the same thing as leveling valid criticisms at the US from inside or outside the country.
 

sphagnum

Banned
I'd personally apply it to the portion of the left that embraces anti-Americanism, anti-Western liberal order, anti-NATO, etc.

What if I don't like any of those

BUT

at the same time I don't support Russian attempts to tear those down because I don't believe that will lead to a more progressive future?

edit: well that's more reasonable
 
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