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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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N

nature boy

Member
https://www.axios.com/new-trump-to-let-house-rs-write-his-tax-plan-2476912425.html

Beginning next week, President Trump plans to spend several weeks selling the benefits of tax reform, with a flurry of speeches on the road, rallies (including the Rust Belt), and meetings at the White House.

But administration officials tell us that based on their experience with health reform, they plan to let Capitol Hill drive the details, rather than releasing the White House plan that once had been promised.

The working plan is expected to come from the House Ways and Means Committee, in the latter part of September. "We need the Ways and Means Committee to own it," a top administration official told me.

A senior source says Trump will sell this hard, in a way that he never did with health care.

Trump will argue that tax reform is necessary to spur economic growth, and will talk up tax simplification and what that would mean for individuals.
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What could go wrong
 
D

dramatis

Member
There's supposed to be another rally this weekend, this time in San Francisco.

I'm not so sure it'll end up as mild as the Boston one.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Favorability is something you should pay attention to in a primary. It was actually a fairly common argument for Obama over Clinton in 2008. Favorability three years in advance is too tied to name recognition to be super useful except for the purposes of disqualifying well known, unpopular potential candidates.

And, yes, both sides need to give the 2016 primary a rest.
 
F

Futurevoid

Member
bangbang i'm a timpani said:
trump cant sell healthcare b/c he has no fucking idea whats happening. taxes are easy. less taxes = derp good.
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Until the GOP releases their tax plan and its includes massive cuts for the wealthy and the middle class holding bag as per usual. Alongside no offsetting revenue to pay for it which the freedom caucus will shit bricks about and then he'll revert to calling out people on twitter and the whole thing will fall apart and end up being a Bush tax cuts style of deal that will expire over time, etc. If they even get that passed.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=246928358&postcount=215

"Black voters in the South should not count the same as votes elsewhere" "DNC (Black voters) are to blame for Hillary. They helped rigged the primary for her by giving her 4 million more votes than Bernie"

That is basically what I'm getting verbatim from some folks. Infuriating.
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Wanna bet that the same people making those arguments are the same people who were overjoyed when Sanders won....Oklahoma...Kansas...Nebraska, etc. It couldn't be more transparent.

You can't win the republican or democrat primary without winning the south. And the funny thing is that Sanders still isn't really putting effort into building his brand in the south. He's done some campaigning there with poor workers and unions, which is great. But that's about it. People have to SEE you.

I can't help but think the 08 primary was such a great case study on what candidates should (and shouldn't) do. Edwards, Clinton, and Obama began courting the south very early. 2005, 2006, etc. Visiting Iowa or NH is a good idea, but you have to touch the base at some point. That means southern Evangelicals for republicans, and southern blacks+unions for democrats.
 
T

Teggy

Member
We basically have a ministry of propaganda now

DIChFlOXcAE_ttw
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G

Greigor The Fellhand

Member
BoogieWoogie said:
That's the dumbest idea ever, truly worthy of the name Hickenlooper.
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The thing is though, if you think about it. If Kasich runs, He will win the republican primary and Dems will have to run someone good to beat him.

Trump isnt going to last the term, let alone 2 years.

Kasich was the only republican to not bow to Trump, he declined his offer to be VP and he has continually attacked trump since he got in office.


If trump is impeached or resigns then the Republicans will turn to someone who never bowed to Trump, that person is Kasich.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Greigor The Fellhand said:
The thing is though, if you think about it. If Kasich runs, He will win the republican primary and Dems will have to run someone good to beat him.

Trump isnt going to last the term, let alone 2 years.

Kasich was the only republican to not bow to Trump, he declined his offer to be VP and he has continually attacked trump since he got in office.


If trump is impeached or resigns then the Republicans will turn to someone who never bowed to Trump, that person is Kasich.
Click to expand...

You're missing Pence in there
 
R

RumbleHumble

Banned
Greigor The Fellhand said:
The thing is though, if you think about it. If Kasich runs, He will win the republican primary and Dems will have to run someone good to beat him.

Trump isnt going to last the term, let alone 2 years.

Kasich was the only republican to not bow to Trump, he declined his offer to be VP and he has continually attacked trump since he got in office.


If trump is impeached or resigns then the Republicans will turn to someone who never bowed to Trump, that person is Kasich.
Click to expand...

The Republicans have Pence that they can flock to. And flock they will. To their oblivion hopefully.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Greigor The Fellhand said:
The thing is though, if you think about it. If Kasich runs, He will win the republican primary and Dems will have to run someone good to beat him.

Trump isnt going to last the term, let alone 2 years.

Kasich was the only republican to not bow to Trump, he declined his offer to be VP and he has continually attacked trump since he got in office.


If trump is impeached or resigns then the Republicans will turn to someone who never bowed to Trump, that person is Kasich.
Click to expand...

Kasich won't win the Republican primary. Republican primary voters are not the same as Republican Party officials. The majority of them want a Trump-like candidate. If Trump fails, they'll want a candidate similar to Trump but perceived as having less baggage. That's not Kasich.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Greigor The Fellhand said:
Pence will be P once trump is out, depending on how the investigation goes I say a 15% chance pence gets outted by mueller.

Pence wont be able to run in 2020 because he's tainted and the shadow cast over him by trump will never leave.
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I think Pence has done a better job distancing himself from the investigation, lawyering up quickly and keeping a low profile. I don't think he'll be implicated.

I don't think the R base gives a damn about tainted, they're beyond that.
Anything short of Pence in jail and he's running in 2020 if Cheeto's a goner.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
Kasich polls worse against Trump than Cruz.

He has zero chance of winning a primary. He's a relic that can't appeal to the current GOP base.
 
B

Blader

Member
Box of Kittens said:
Favorability is something you should pay attention to in a primary. It was actually a fairly common argument for Obama over Clinton in 2008. Favorability three years in advance is too tied to name recognition to be super useful except for the purposes of disqualifying well known, unpopular potential candidates.

And, yes, both sides need to give the 2016 primary a rest.
Click to expand...

This is why I don't put much stock in the "Bernie is the most popular politician in America" stuff as for why he should run in 2020. Hillary's approvals were also fairly high three years out from the election. It's a whole different game when they're actually running for president.
 
B

Barzul

Member
https://www.axios.com/2020-rumblings-gop-dem-combo-potential-emerges-2476905475.html

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) — "the Johns," as insiders are calling them — have been making a flurry of joint appearances to talk about state-driven improvements to health care.

But Axios has learned that their duet is part of an alliance that's gaining momentum toward a possible joint independent bid for president in 2020, likely with Kasich at the top of the ticket:
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I'm all for Trump's presidency being Perot'd in 2020.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
This is the worst idea I've ever fucking heard. 95% of Republicans will come home and vote Trump while far more Independents and Dems will vote for Kasich/Hickenlooper over the Dem candidate.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Cheeto ain't gonna be happy with Cohn (via Axios):

Gary Cohn told the Financial Times that he felt "enormous pressure" following Trump's response to Charlottesville, where the president blamed "both sides" for the violence that broke out.

"This administration can and must do better in consistently and unequivocally condemning these groups and do everything we can to heal the deep divisions that exist in our communities."

"I have come under enormous pressure both to resign and to remain in my current position. As a patriotic American, I am reluctant to leave my post... But I also feel compelled to voice my distress over the events of the last two weeks... Citizens standing up for equality and freedom can never be equated with white supremacists, neo-Nazis, and the KKK."
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B

Barzul

Member
Kusagari said:
This is the worst idea I've ever fucking heard. 95% of Republicans will come home and vote Trump while far more Independents and Dems will vote for Kasich/Hickenlooper over the Dem candidate.
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You think so? In 2020? 2016 I might've agreed but Trump is actually losing GOP support in some recent polls. The anyone but Hillary portion of their base would actually have another option.
 
P

Piecake

Member
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen offered a forceful defense of broad new banking regulations enacted after the 2008 financial meltdown, saying the rules safeguard the economy against another crisis and rejecting assertions from President Trump and top aides that they should be rolled back. Her speech comes as Trump considers whether to reappoint her to a four-year term as head of the U.S. central bank.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...es-make-economy-safer/?utm_term=.241f9eb875b8

Well, it looks like Yellen is not going to reappointed. Wonder what sort of yahoo we are going to get next?
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Kusagari said:
This is the worst idea I've ever fucking heard. 95% of Republicans will come home and vote Trump while far more Independents and Dems will vote for Kasich/Hickenlooper over the Dem candidate.
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Lots of indys aren't happy with trump. Kasich can't win a primary, the general is a different ballgame
 
S

sangreal

Member
Futurevoid said:
Until the GOP releases their tax plan and its includes massive cuts for the wealthy and the middle class holding bag as per usual. Alongside no offsetting revenue to pay for it which the freedom caucus will shit bricks about and then he'll revert to calling out people on twitter and the whole thing will fall apart and end up being a Bush tax cuts style of deal that will expire over time, etc. If they even get that passed.
Click to expand...

The freedom caucus doesn't give a shit if tax cuts are revemue neutral. The only reason they're talking about including tax increases alongside cuts (ie wealth redistribution to corporations) is to satisfy reconciliation rules
 
J

jtb

Banned
also Isaac Chotiner's interview of Mark "Dems should stop with the identity politics" Lilla was fucking embarrassing (for Lilla). I don't know when we can take this bullshit behind the shed and put it out of its misery for the racist/idiotic garbage that it is, but I think we're getting close.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Kusagari said:
You're just backing up my point. The Indy's unhappy with Trump will vote for Kasich over the actual Dem ticket and Trump will win with under 40% of the vote.
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No ... I'm not. You're assumption that more Dems would shift to Kasich from whoever we nominate than Indys shifting away from Trump isn't based on anything but your feels.
 
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