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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Ogodei said:
Will they?

I'm worried about candidate selection in all of the states that should be slam dunks: Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

New Jersey's a lock, Maine's quite possible if Collins doesn't decide to back out, not too worried about Pennsylvania being retained. Ohio, i just don't have the faith in their Democratic party.

Nevada's a good bet too, depending on how well Sandoval goes to bat for his successor.
Click to expand...
Michigan we have Gretchen Whitmer, who's terrific. Wisconsin just had a good candidate jump in in the form of Tony Evers, the state superintendent. Illinois... I agree the clown car primary right now isn't super promising, but Rauner's approval ratings are horrific. I wouldn't be surprised if even a second-stringer could knock him off.

Maryland and Massachusetts have GOP governors, oddly, but I think Maryland is winnable while we can afford to write off Massachusetts with how stacked the state legislature is. Not that we shouldn't run a good candidate, just if we don't win it's not the end of the world. Also in New England is Vermont and New Hampshire, and it's the same dichotomy. The Democratic Party is so strong in Vermont that the governor's office is practically a formality, while New Hampshire with its Republican trifecta is more important to try and win. It's subject to huge swings so there's a chance there.

Nevada, like you mentioned is prime for a takeover. Same with New Mexico - our prospects there are even better, I'd say.

Beyond those states, there's Florida which is an open seat and Gwen Graham should be formidable. I want to see if Iowa and Ohio are able to snap back from their hard right turns, although I'm not too optimistic. Kansas, Georgia and Arizona are in the same universe and I could see all of them being competitive for different reasons.

If we could flip:

Florida
Illinois
Maine (unless Collins jumps in)
Maryland
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Wisconsin

That'd probably be an okay night.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Diablos said:
That's a huge if.
Click to expand...
I doubt we flip all of them, but we could also flip some I didn't mention.

Depends on where, too. Like if we won Ohio instead of Maryland? I'd make that trade.

I'd really like if 538 would do a House model again. They did one in 2010 and I believe 2008? I understand skipping 2012 since there were new maps and it was harder to rely on historical data, but now we've had three elections under these lines.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Aaron Strife said:
Michigan we have Gretchen Whitmer, who's terrific. Wisconsin just had a good candidate jump in in the form of Tony Evers, the state superintendent. Illinois... I agree the clown car primary right now isn't super promising, but Rauner's approval ratings are horrific. I wouldn't be surprised if even a second-stringer could knock him off.

Maryland and Massachusetts have GOP governors, oddly, but I think Maryland is winnable while we can afford to write off Massachusetts with how stacked the state legislature is. Not that we shouldn't run a good candidate, just if we don't win it's not the end of the world. Also in New England is Vermont and New Hampshire, and it's the same dichotomy. The Democratic Party is so strong in Vermont that the governor's office is practically a formality, while New Hampshire with its Republican trifecta is more important to try and win. It's subject to huge swings so there's a chance there.

Nevada, like you mentioned is prime for a takeover. Same with New Mexico - our prospects there are even better, I'd say.

Beyond those states, there's Florida which is an open seat and Gwen Graham should be formidable. I want to see if Iowa and Ohio are able to snap back from their hard right turns, although I'm not too optimistic. Kansas, Georgia and Arizona are in the same universe and I could see all of them being competitive for different reasons.

If we could flip:

Florida
Illinois
Maine (unless Collins jumps in)
Maryland
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Wisconsin

That'd probably be an okay night.
Click to expand...

Whitmer is good, but I'm curious to see if there is still somewhat of a leftover Granholm effect there in the minds of voters. They definitely don't like Snyder, though.

These governor races are crucial. I'd argue they may be the most important in 2018.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Regarding Illinois, Pritzker seems like the most likely nominee. He has some really nasty negatives that could very well sink him (Blagojevich tapes, tax shenanigans, closeness to Madigan) but has by far the best organization and buckets of money to spend.

The only polls I've seen have Kennedy in the lead but (a) those are Kennedy internal polls (b) they've been very opaque about the details and (c) comparing the first poll to the second shows Pritzker gaining on him. Aside from the Kennedy name it's hard to see what he has going for him. He has no vision, a terrible organization, negative charisma, anemic fundraising, and no one is buying "I'm the outsider" when you're a Kennedy and one of your top staffers is a Daley.

Biss seems most likely of the remaining candidates to catch on. He seems like a bit of a phony (centrist technocrat trying to reinvent himself as a Bernie progressive) but I suspect he would beat Rauner largely by being inoffensive. In order to make it out of the primary he needs to expand his appeal beyond white liberals in the north suburbs of Chicago.

It's pretty clear at this point that Rauner's strategy will be to try and pit the rest of the state against Chicago, rail against recent tax increases, and tie his opponent to Madigan.

The candidate quality problem may not matter if Rauner keeps imploding (see the story posted above) but I'd feel a lot better about the race if we had better options.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
I doubt we flip all of them, but we could also flip some I didn't mention.

Depends on where, too. Like if we won Ohio instead of Maryland? I'd make that trade.

I'd really like if 538 would do a House model again. They did one in 2010 and I believe 2008? I understand skipping 2012 since there were new maps and it was harder to rely on historical data, but now we've had three elections under these lines.
Click to expand...

IIRC, the model didn't do very well on 2010 and they haven't published a new one in part because they haven't come up with a new one they're satisfied with. Modeling individual House races is really hard (part of the reason I'm treating that DDHQ model with a grain of salt).
 
C

chadskin

Member
Trump is railing against Republicans because he thinks it will help him politically down the road, for instance during a 2020 reelection bid, according to one outside adviser to the White House.

If Republicans lose the House, as several White House advisers have warned the president, Trump can say, “See, I told you these guys wouldn’t get anything done. I’ve been saying this for months. They’re not following my agenda,” said the adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks.
Click to expand...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...ec44a8-88e1-11e7-a94f-3139abce39f5_story.html

That's an interesting, uh, strategy?
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
It's one thing to run against Congress when it's controlled by the other party (see Harry Truman and Bill Clinton) but running against your own party is probably a bad idea.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
IIRC, the model didn't do very well on 2010 and they haven't published a new one in part because they haven't come up with a new one they're satisfied with. Modeling individual House races is really hard (part of the reason I'm treating that DDHQ model with a grain of salt).
Click to expand...
Yeah, for example their odds for TX-32 seem a little messed up just because it's based on the last election when Sessions didn't have a Democratic opponent even though Clinton barely won his district. How are you supposed to account for that?

kirblar said:
House of 52 Card Pickup.
Click to expand...
It'll be a 52 seat pickup at this rate.

(Please pick up 52 seats so I can make that joke)

Box of Kittens said:
It's one thing to run against Congress when it's controlled by the other party (see Harry Truman and Bill Clinton) but running against your own party is probably a bad idea.
Click to expand...
On the other hand, it'll set an interesting precedent!
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
Piecake said:
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/...staff-after-response-to-racial-cartoon-242002
Click to expand...
The real story here is that Chicago's crony cash lollapalooza is under attack because it's bankrupting Chicago schools and the machine's autoimmune response is to take advantage of the nazi shitshow going on in the White House by linking Rauner to racism. Here's the cartoon for reference.

illinois-policy-cartoon.jpg


you know, I'm not conservative, but maybe rich white people hoarding money in special favors and redirecting tax money really is negatively impacting black kids that depend on school for safety and escaping poverty but wtf do I know
 
T

Teggy

Member
This article would be funny if not for the fact that it is absolutely terrifying


https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ad...ia-bristles-as-john-kelly-limits-what-gets-to


Cernovich said he's not worried about the choking of information lanes to Trump because, "if it's good enough, Don Jr. will give it to him." The source close to the administration confirmed that fact, though with a far different response.

"Don Jr. is a huge problem," the source said, saying he passes questionable articles to the president. "He needs to be a galaxy away from that place."
Click to expand...

Kelly, who has held interviews in recent weeks with White House staffers to get a handle on changes that need to be made, may have been swayed by reports confirmed to BuzzFeed News that former deputy chief of staff Katie Walsh was fired due to a Got News article by former freelance journalist Chuck Johnson, who reportedly worked with the Trump transition team.

Johnson, who contends First Lady Melania Trump was the one who shared the Got News article with Trump, said Kelly's moves won't change anything.

"Melania Trump hands President Trump articles," he said. "Is John Kelly going to get between the president and his queen? Good luck, pal."

Paul Joseph Watson, an Infowars editor, agreed. Kelly's information directives are "pretty futile given that Trump has a direct line" to far right media, he said in a text message, adding an emoji, smiling with sunglasses.
Click to expand...
 
H

Hindl

Member
Soros is proof that if Dems were to cave and get rid of the leadership that's usually demonized like Pelosi, Republicans would find a new boogieman
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Box of Kittens said:
It's one thing to run against Congress when it's controlled by the other party (see Harry Truman and Bill Clinton) but running against your own party is probably a bad idea.
Click to expand...

He literally just won election shitting all over establishment GOP and threatening to go independent if they tried to oust him. So this isn't something new for Trump, it's actually quite familiar. Drain the swamp! Washington is a MESS!

It would probably be sound political advice if he wasn't cratering in the polls. They would be forced to latch onto his ass and succumb to his tough guy ways if they want to keep control.

As of now we wait for someone to finally punch back because the backlash for doing so won't be as great.
 
R

Random Human

They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Hindl said:
Soros is proof that if Dems were to cave and get rid of the leadership that's usually demonized like Pelosi, Republicans would find a new boogieman
Click to expand...

Soros isn't the boogieman.

He's the one you send to fund the fookin boogieman.
 
F

Fox318

Member
It's amazing how fast conservative media passed through.

I have peoplesending me emails about some Allen West approved article about how Charletsville was a setup by Soros.

Also how slaves had it better back then and they never wanted to be freed. These people never harbored anything close like that before this month.
 
R

Ryuuroden

Member
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
kirblar said:
The collective inability of 18-25s to understand the '08 election and its aftermath is going to be the death of us.
Click to expand...
I have to laugh whenever someone is like "oh yeah Obama CURBSTOMPED Hillary," especially when they act like Hillary v. Bernie was at all close

Or that Obama and Hillary hated each other even though he made her the 2nd most powerful person in his administration (sorry Joe)
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
BlastProcessing said:
@reportbywilson
Border Patrol keeping checkpoints open during #HurricaneHarvey. [url]https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/24/border-patrol-texas-checkpoints-remain-open-hurricane-harvey/ … Meanwhile, dozens of colonias are in path of storm.[/URL]
DICjacmVYAEuqdp.jpg


These fuckers are going to get people killed.
Click to expand...

This really fucking disgusts me. We ran into something like this in Tupelo when the city bulldozed a homeless camp with like ten minutes notice. Dozens of people lost family photos and other sentimental belongings because uppity ass Southerners didn't want to look at them.

Every one of those fucks will be sitting in pews on Sunday too.
 
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