Indeed. Without a mechanism to force re-elections or otherwise implement proper maps it won't get done.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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Indeed. Without a mechanism to force re-elections or otherwise implement proper maps it won't get done.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Of course he is
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
He teed that up nicely for you.
BlastProcessing
Member
Special Counsel Examines Possible Role Flynn Played in Seeking Clinton Emails From Hackers
https://www.wsj.com/articles/specia...eeking-clinton-emails-from-hackers-1503694304
https://www.wsj.com/articles/specia...eeking-clinton-emails-from-hackers-1503694304
I would've been disappointed if he were not but good to hear confirmation nonetheless.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Is this illegal or just frowned upon if its true?
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
"u guys r fuked"
Like most treason when you control all branches of government, it's frowned upon. Now about those tax cuts.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Meh, i don't think any GOPer sans Trump himself (or maybe Rohrbacher) is going to go out on a limb to save Flynn's ass. It's only Trump that the congressional GOP can shelter from this.
It's probably less about collusion and more about potential obstruction of justice. Like, if Kushner was aware of what Flynn and Smith were doing and then, as reported, urged Trump to fire Comey, perhaps in an effort to protect Flynn and ultimately himself ... that could get interesting quickly.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
No nuclear country has ever been invaded, right? So that makes them the most successful defense weapon ever. Case closed, maybe if everyone had nukes there would be no more war.
Britain was technically invaded during the Falklands War
Fenderputty
Banned
Any of the India / Pakistan skirmishes maybe?
I wouldn't know, but that seems like the most likely.
skullmuffins
Banned
Spoiled Milk
Banned
What's it like having a news addiction?
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
I don't know how this whole thing will turn out, but at the very least I know Manafort is in a lot of trouble.
Fenderputty
Banned
You pretending your (all of ours really) PoliGAF addition isn't comparable?
aspiegamer
Member
Trump actually went out for a trip this weekend? Like, seriously? Dude. Come on. I assumed it was a joke because he does basically every weekend, but, goddamn. At least it's Camp David so there'll be no golf photos. At least I'm pretty sure there's no golf course there.
...Says another person spending time on PoliGAF.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah I was joking before I saw the Camp David stuff.
Aaron Strife
Banned
With the Florida Senate special election coming up, I wanted to see how winnable the chamber is in 2018. Short answer: It'll be a slog.
Assuming Taddeo is successful and wins her special election, Democrats will be at a 24-16 disadvantage. They'd need five seats for a majority.
Potential targets for the Democrats are SD-36 (based in Miami-Dade), an open seat that went 56-42 for Clinton; SD-18 (based in Hillsborough) that went 51-45 for Clinton; and SD-8 (Alachau, Putnam, and part of Marion) which went for Trump by about 500 votes. The first two are low-hanging fruit (SD-36 moreso) while the third is as swingy as can be, but even winning all three would put them at a 21-19 disadvantage.
Beyond those, I'm looking at a trio of seats - SDs-20, 22 and 24 - that each gave Clinton 44-45% of the vote and Trump 51-52%. Winning these, and thus the majority would probably require a wave, although I don't think it would need a huge one. SD-16 (42-54 Clinton/Trump) is not much further off. None of the Dem-held seats seem to be in any danger, the worst went for Clinton by 13 points.
In a decent Dem year I could see them picking off one or two seats which would at least cut further into the GOP majority, but like everywhere else Democrats will need more than a decent year to win.
The Florida House will be even tougher, as even if Democrats picked up all the Clinton seats they'd still be at a 65-55 disadvantage. Still, that'd be better than their current 77-41. Oy!
Assuming Taddeo is successful and wins her special election, Democrats will be at a 24-16 disadvantage. They'd need five seats for a majority.
Potential targets for the Democrats are SD-36 (based in Miami-Dade), an open seat that went 56-42 for Clinton; SD-18 (based in Hillsborough) that went 51-45 for Clinton; and SD-8 (Alachau, Putnam, and part of Marion) which went for Trump by about 500 votes. The first two are low-hanging fruit (SD-36 moreso) while the third is as swingy as can be, but even winning all three would put them at a 21-19 disadvantage.
Beyond those, I'm looking at a trio of seats - SDs-20, 22 and 24 - that each gave Clinton 44-45% of the vote and Trump 51-52%. Winning these, and thus the majority would probably require a wave, although I don't think it would need a huge one. SD-16 (42-54 Clinton/Trump) is not much further off. None of the Dem-held seats seem to be in any danger, the worst went for Clinton by 13 points.
In a decent Dem year I could see them picking off one or two seats which would at least cut further into the GOP majority, but like everywhere else Democrats will need more than a decent year to win.
The Florida House will be even tougher, as even if Democrats picked up all the Clinton seats they'd still be at a 65-55 disadvantage. Still, that'd be better than their current 77-41. Oy!
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
I'd argue Charlottesville was the first real one and he bungled that pretty badly, to put it lightly. Taking a trip this weekend and literally saying "good luck everyone" on the way out doesn't bode well for how this hurricane will reflect upon him, however.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This really is just a rerun of W's second term isn't it...
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think Trump elevated Charlottesville to a national crisis by siding with the Nazis.
Not to downplay the seriousness of the event, it's just that any other president would have easily just been like "Nazis are bad, don't kill protesters." I wouldn't consider it a crisis if it's that easy to get out in front of, but Trump is a special kind of stupid.
Jane Raybould's announced she's running against Nebraska Senator Deb Fischer in 2018
http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/...cle_50b260ae-aa54-50a5-a587-a6dc6ab24306.html
http://www.omaha.com/news/politics/...cle_50b260ae-aa54-50a5-a587-a6dc6ab24306.html
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
I'm still worried he'll give one teleprompter speech about the hurricane and suddenly be presidential.
Yeah, that sort of felt like a problem that he turned into a crisis. A national, historic crisis that will probably be remembered long after he dies.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Best of luck to her, but I don't think she really has a shot.
Attacking Fischer as the tiebreaking vote for Betsy DeVos isn't a bad angle, though. I think even Trump voters would recognize DeVos as woefully unqualified based on her confirmation hearings.
It'd be really something if we could make Tennessee and Nebraska competitive next year. Revenge for Harold Ford, and for the only Dem-held Senate seat we lost in 2012 (not that Ben Nelson is worth crying over).
cartoon_soldier
Member
I actually predict that response will be half competent because FEMA is not run by Michael Brown and cable will give Trump credit. Then he will start tweeting again.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Last I heard, he's still missing key people for disaster relief and FEMA.
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
I've been trying to find confirmation of this.
If the hurricane ends up bad and he hasn't appointed key people...
(Of course, we know he'll just blame Democrats.)
cartoon_soldier
Member
Which is good since people who know what they are doing are running those departments right now.
Yeah, I don't have high hopes. However, who knows where we'll be next year. Maybe, like you said, we'll be able to pull out a surprise win in a deep red state.
aspiegamer
Member
North Korea was bummed after being out of the news for a few weeks, I guess.
Trump, seriously, go back to the White House, my god. You look like an even bigger chump after what you said a few days ago.
lmao, and he picked -right now- to make the transgender ban official.
Trump, seriously, go back to the White House, my god. You look like an even bigger chump after what you said a few days ago.
lmao, and he picked -right now- to make the transgender ban official.
FEMA has a confirmed head. Funny enough all the articles when you search for that are about how he is shockingly qualified for his job
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I had this post half-typed out before, ha ha.
The FEMA and government response will be arguably adequate given the limits of what they can do (this storm looks like an unavoidable catastrophe).
Trump will be obsessed with self-congratulations.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Maybe the hurricane is from China! Right? China! Who knows really, no one can know for sure, no one can, believe me. You have experts saying it might be global warming, others say El Nino, or La Nina! Who knows right? If they come from Mexico I don't think they'll get over the wall, right? They're not getting over it. But it could be North Korea, probably not, but it could be. I always say you have to know where a hurricane is coming from, if you want to go around it. You just have to, otherwise you'll head straight into it and probably not make it out the other side. Some people know that, I was a bit like a hurricane myself in the last election, Hurricane Trump, or Hurricane Donald I guess they would name it, but Hurricane Trump sounds much better right? I think so. Hillary never saw it coming, the Democrats never saw it coming, and here I was, and I won, just blew it away, all away. Nobody thought I would win, and then I won, they said I actually didn't want to win and that I would quit, but I'm still here folks, still here, I'm not quitting, I actually like this! We're doing so many things, every week, so many things. We should call this Trump season, and there's only one, all year, it never ends.
good luck, but Deb is a Trump rubberstamp that rode in on the teaper wave. she's gonna have to hope dems show up to vote
aspiegamer
Member
Before anyone wants to start a "is it global warming?" debate with anyone, I'll throw everything out there for you. Alas, this isn't China:
1) You can't directly attribute it, just like you can never pin one exact event. Trends and extremes are what to look at.
2) The Gulf waters are abnormally warm, which is party of a multi-year trend. This means more energy for storms, and obviously that doesn't help. A comparison might be Sandy where it intensified quickly because the waters were much warmer than they should have been.
3) Abnormal heat on the west coast is creating a big wall in the atmosphere to the west that will prevent it from coming on shore and weakening faster. Moreover, warmer weather in northern Canada indirectly creates a wall to the north.
1) You can't directly attribute it, just like you can never pin one exact event. Trends and extremes are what to look at.
2) The Gulf waters are abnormally warm, which is party of a multi-year trend. This means more energy for storms, and obviously that doesn't help. A comparison might be Sandy where it intensified quickly because the waters were much warmer than they should have been.
3) Abnormal heat on the west coast is creating a big wall in the atmosphere to the west that will prevent it from coming on shore and weakening faster. Moreover, warmer weather in northern Canada indirectly creates a wall to the north.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Oh hell its up to a Cat 4 now?
balladofwindfishes
Member
Idunno where they got it, but someone mentioned it in the Texas thread a few days ago
shinra-bansho
Member
I'd consider this the first "crisis." Depending on how big this natural disaster ends up. The rest have just been avoidable fuckups that seem to be scheduled daily.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I'm really fucking worried. This is going to be so much worse than it has to be
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Texas is about to get hit hard. I do not trust Trump to pull this off with grace and dignity that it needs.
Was the Katrina response really bungled because of Michael Brown? I would have figured it was bungled because of general government bureaucracy and people not prepared / taking the crisis seriously, which I imagine is more of an institutional malaise than an individual one.
Edit: And our government's inability to care about poor / black / poor black people.
Edit: And our government's inability to care about poor / black / poor black people.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
A President with some modicum of control over his political allies and subordinates can exert a certain level of "get your asses in there and fix this" if things are looking too bad.
Trump definitely cannot
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