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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Iirc Dems flubbed hard on the candidate here so not too surprising. FL Dems suck.


That has nothing to do with what I said?

Once again, 2014 was bad for Democrats because it was a Dem midterm. You still haven't factored in bad GOP midterms like 2006 in or articulated why they shouldn't count.
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Do you understand how rarely house majority actually changes? From 1955 to 1994, it didn't change once. Yes, "Presidential party does worse in midterms," repeat that, but power doesn't shift often. It's more likely than not that 2018 will be the same story.
 
S

Scirrocco

Member
BoogieWoogie said:
Manafort being indicted means he sits in a cell throughout the proceeding right?
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IANAL but it Depends on if they set bail. With bail he can just pay it and be free till he's convicted. But because of his international contacts and the nature of the charges, he could be deemed a flight risk, and no bail set.

If anyone k owe better feel free to correct me
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Randolph Freelander said:
Do you understand how rarely house majority actually changes? From 1955 to 1994, it didn't change once. Yes, "Presidential party does worse in midterms," repeat that, but power doesn't shift often. It's more likely than not that 2018 will be the same story.
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And then it changed in 1994.

And then it changed in 2006.

And then it changed in 2010.

You're deliberately cherrypicking which precedents you feel matter here!

FYI I'm not even convinced Dems win the House next year.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Aaron Strife said:
And then it changed in 1994.

And then it changed in 2006.

And then it changed in 2010.

You're deliberately cherrypicking your precedents here!
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40 years is kind of a long time. Not a lot to cherry pick there.

But alright. 94 to 06 was also a long enough time. Republican majority grew in Bush's first midterm, and the Republican majority shrank in 98 despite being Bill Clinton's second midterm. There's reasons for both, sure, but you can't just assume Presidential party is going to do worse, and you can't assume popularity now means anything next year. You have to actually get people to switch sides at the ballot box.

So, I mean, be optimistic, whatever. But, uh, it's probably not going to work out all too well.

Edit: And, yes, I would love for you all to be able to shove these posts in my face next November. More than anything, let that happen.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
Kusagari said:
Taddeo is like an eternal loser.

She lost to Garcia in a primary. She was Crist's running mate in the governor race he lost to Voldemort. Won't be surprised if she loses a third time.
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Taddeo is weird. She was in charge of the hilariously incompetent Miami-Dade Democrats for a while and was then inexplicably picked to be lieutenant governor on the Crist ballot. No political experience beyond that.

I guess her years spent in the party give her some institutional cred. A lot of politically-inclined young people I've met really like her, even though she doesn't have any real accomplishments.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
1998 and 2002 were fairly unprecedented midterms in modern times with truly explicit and unprecedented reasons for ending up the way they did but sure whatever.

That doesn't mean that we will win the House, but.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Valhelm said:
Taddeo is weird. She was in charge of the hilariously incompetent Miami-Dade Democrats for a while and was then inexplicably picked to be lieutenant governor on the Crist ballot. No political experience beyond that.

I guess her years spent in the party give her some institutional cred. A lot of politically-inclined young people I've met really like her, even though she doesn't have any real accomplishments.
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You misunderstand. The lack of actual accomplishments is why they like her because she's never been in a position to say "No." :p
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Randolph Freelander said:
40 years is kind of a long time. Not a lot to cherry pick there.

But alright. 94 to 06 was also a long enough time. Republican majority grew in Bush's first midterm, and the Republican majority shrank in 98 despite being Bill Clinton's second midterm. There's reasons for both, sure, but you can't just assume Presidential party is going to do worse, and you can't assume popularity now means anything next year. You have to actually get people to switch sides at the ballot box.

So, I mean, be optimistic, whatever. But, uh, it's probably not going to work out all too well.
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Quit talking past me and maybe we can have a decent conversation. Like I said, I'm hardly confident that Democrats actually flip the chamber, in fact I think it's more likely they fall short, but your thesis is built on very flimsy reasoning.

The beauty of being a pessimist is you always get to be right. PD's whole schtick here was taking a victory lap as PoliGAF's Nostradamus whenever one of his stick in the mud, always assume the worst predictions came true compared to the 8,000 other ones that didn't.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Valhelm said:
Taddeo is weird. She was in charge of the hilariously incompetent Miami-Dade Democrats for a while and was then inexplicably picked to be lieutenant governor on the Crist ballot. No political experience beyond that.

I guess her years spent in the party give her some institutional cred. A lot of politically-inclined young people I've met really like her, even though she doesn't have any real accomplishments.
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she just won
 
D

DTC

Member
1955-1993 was mostly during the FDR realignment. southern democrats were extremely loyal to the party in state/local levels (like, dems almost always won by a lot), even when the reagan revolution happened. it wasn't until like late 90's/2000s where republicans started really winning in the south as ancestral southern dems died off.
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Quit talking past me and maybe we can have a decent conversation. Like I said, I'm hardly confident that Democrats actually flip the chamber, in fact I think it's more likely they fall short, but your thesis is built on very flimsy reasoning.

The beauty of being a pessimist is you always get to be right. PD's whole schtick here was taking a victory lap as PoliGAF's Nostradamus whenever one of his stick in the mud, always assume the worst predictions came true compared to the 8,000 other ones that didn't.
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I'm inviting you to flaunt this prediction in my face, though. I want you to be able to do it. I don't want to be right at all. And yet, Republican advantages appear insurmountable. In the 2013 thread I linked, I said that I expected it to remain so until 2022, and I still believe that to be true. Until you take back and hold the states in a census year, we're stuck like this (2022 being the first election with freshly drawn maps).
 
D

DTC

Member
btw just to illustrate the southern democrat dominance -- georgia didn't elect a republican governor until 2000. from 1870-2000 it always elected a democrat.

edit: besides the two republicans around 1870 (when black people could vote).
 
D

DTC

Member
lol this alabama primary is funny so far

unknown.png


then 5 minutes later

Screen_Shot_2017-09-26_at_8.17.47_PM.png


almost none of the vote is in but still :p. personally i'm expecting around +10 moore, but strange seems to have gotten a lot of momentum recently so he could close it out.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
whyamihere said:
bah
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Holmes said:
FL Dems suck
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whyamihere said:
It's more than these are still heavily Cuban districts that still vote GOP downballot, though less than they used to.
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Hubbl3 said:
Yeah, like someone else said... Miami Cubans are ride or die for the GOP. It's pretty depressing.
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whyamihere said:
Yup.
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whyamihere said:
TADDEO UP WITH 125 of 138 Precincts Reporting


SHE'S GONNA WIN
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Aaron Strife said:
Looks like a pretty comfy spread too.

Hooray!

The NH House race is also stupidly close.
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whyamihere said:
she just won
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whyamihere said:
DLCC calling it.
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This was a fun hour :p

At least its better to go from pending disappointment to celebration than the other way around :p
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
very welcome surprise to see Taddeo beat that dipshit Diaz

fucker probably put up 10,000 pictures of his face across Miami, and I swear half of the signs aren't even in the district
 
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