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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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W

Wilsongt

Member
Lord_Byron28 said:
Cambridge Analytica is frightening in their power and scope. They tie together Mercer, Thiel, Putin, Farage, Bannon and Trump as being the forces responsible for Brexit and Trump's election. Out of all of them, Mercer has the most power with Cambridge Analytica at his fingertips. They have also done similar work in Kenya, Trinidad, Latvia, Ukraine, Russia, Iran and Moldova. Cambridge Analytica is almost like a sci-fi dystopian corporation, a few steps away from Samaritan on Person of Interest. Mercer, Putin, Farage and Bannon are all together on this 'New World Order' boat and Cambridge Analytica is their most valuable weapon. Will be even worse if Thiel joins the fold with Palantir and cooperates with Cambridge Analytica.

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...eat-british-brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy

People should read this article if they have the time.
Click to expand...

Robert Mercer is the actual monster that the conspiracy theorist on the right make George Soros out to be.

Projection as its finest.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Crocodile said:
Isn't that what Ben Carson is for? He would still have him :p
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She's also a woman, so he can't be sexist. A two-fer if you will. Plus they'd have to wake Ben from his nap and he gets kinda cranky when you do that.


I just think at some point he's going to flip out if Kelly keeps getting rid of everyone he knows.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Looks like Hawaii's 1st will be open as Colleen Hanabusa is running for governor.

Now's your chance, pigeon!

Also, Greg Stumbo might jump into the 2019 governor's race in Kentucky. Former Speaker of the KY House until he lost his seat in 2016 - that loss might hurt his brand, but all things considered he wouldn't be a bad candidate.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Just felt like sharing this comment from DailyKos Elections featuring some on-the-ground musings from someone heavily involved in Virginia politics:

Random thoughts on Virginia this fall.

I’ve been buried under real-life political work and school activism that have kept me from so much as lurking here many days.

But tonight I’m in the mood to share random thoughts.

I think Northam, Herring, and Fairfax all win this fall, the way things are looking. Herring wins the most comfortably of the three IMO because he’s the only incumbent running. Northam wins by more than Fairfax, because the Governor’s race is a bigger mismatch. Gillespie’s latest ad attacking Northam on “sanctuary cities” is pretty bad at this stage, he’s trying to still lock down a racist, right-wing base this late in the game in a state Hillary won comfortably. There are other reasons I see Northam clearly up, though I’m a little too tired to get into all of them.

In the House of Delegates, the special elections this year in PW and my Fairfax County really are ominous for the GOP, although in Fairfax the local GOP being a disaster and never having minimally acceptable candidates might have been a factor in the school board special. Trump never stops hurting the GOP more and more and more, and that’s killer in NoVA. Right now, I think Kathy Tran, who has long been a personal and professional friend, and Jennifer Carroll Foy are near locks to pick up open GOP-held seats. Our Democratic incumbents are all pretty safe from what I’m seeing, even Kathleen Murphy and John Bell who represent naturally tossup districts. The open question is how many GOP incumbents we beat. I suspect on election night, Karrie Delaney wins in 67 over LeMunyon, based on the district’s changing demographics and the bad headwind for the GOP. After that, I just don’t know who wins and who loses. We have a TON of challengers who are within striking distance, several within MoE.

We’ll be disappointed if we don’t gain at least 6 seats and get to 40. A double-digit gain in seats is realistic. Any more than 10 or so becomes tough, but it all depends on how much Trump and Congressional Rs screw up this fall.

The coordinated campaign here on our side has been real good. Tons of field work, and fantastic publicity to volunteer prospects to get them out. Every canvass launch has a good crowd showing up, indeed I see nearly Presidential-level canvassing turnout at times.

Northam just has a great resume, and Gillespie really none. Gillespie can’t really run on his biography or resume, there’s nothing to sell, so he’s run this campaign of micro-messaging, targeting different parts of his own party’s coalition. It’s a patchwork quilt effort, based on the most generic appeals. The 2014 election really was misleading, as I’ve always thought…...Gillespie was never strong, it was just a bad year for Democrats and Mark Warner was painfully lazy. The latter is something I noticed from the very beginning of his campaign, one of his staffers came to my local Democratic committee meeting in McLean and admitted out loud Warner wasn’t really going to have any kind of serious field effort...he assumed he’d coast. So Gillespie comes within a hair, and everyone thinks he’s a great candidate. But he’s really just a wannabe Generic R…and I emphasize “wannabe” because the label doesn’t really quite fit.

None of this is to say anyone should expect a blowout win…...although that’s possible. What specifically happens the next couple months matters. The best the Rs can do in Congress is usher through clean a CR and a clean debt limit hike. Nothing else will happen to help them. How much more damage Trump will do, and Congressional Rs will do to themselves, is the question.

The campaigns themselves haven’t established, in mechanical or messaging terms, a clear advantage on either side, although our field looks better than theirs. But Northam is really just barely getting off the ground with media and message, Gillespie has been on the air for awhile and yet is still very clearly down. I will be interested to see how the messaging develops and is received through this month, as I think it’s very possible this thing could telegraph its final outcome as soon as a month out.
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tl;dr

- Thinks the three statewide Democrats will win. By order of margin: Herring > Northam > Fairfax. Gillepsie is trying too hard to consolidate the R base by attacking Northam over Charlottesville etc. in a state that Clinton won comfortably.

- Northam has a much better resume than Gillepsie, whose close loss in 2014 is misleading as Warner was lazy.

- Northam's campaign/volunteer involvement is high, campaign hasn't really been in the media yet whereas Gillepsie's been on the air for a while and still trailing.

- Special elections in Virginia have been ominous for the GOP, every incumbent Democrat is safe, thinks Dems will swing two open GOP-held seats and beat the incumbent in district 67. Beyond that, he's not sure.

- Hoping for double digit gains, but says anything more than 10 or so is tough. Less than 6 would be disappointing. Best thing that could happen for election prospects is if Trump keeps screwing up.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
Just kick that can right on down the road...

Rick Perry says climate change debate is "secondary" amid Harvey destruction

In spite of the record-breaking rainfall and scientists charging that warming seas have caused hurricanes of greater intensity, Perry declined to weigh in right now on whether the White House would make any changes to its stance on climate change.

"We can line up scientists on both sides of this," he told CBSN's Stephanie Sy, but "this is not the time to be having this conversation." At this moment, he said, it's time to focus on helping victims recover from the damage wrought by Harvey.

"Everyone wants to run to the climate change debate, but that is very secondary at this particular time," he said.
Click to expand...
 
O

Ogodei

Member
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
ArkhamFantasy said:
Would you guys be happy if democrats didnt get a majority in the house next year but still picked up a decent amount of seats?
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It's a two-sided coin for me - obviously the closer we get, the better I'll feel about Ryan's inability to corral his caucus to vote on anything. But the closer we get, the more depressing it'll be that we came so close.

Like what if we were just one seat away? Like cool, they really can't pass anything, but like goddamn, just one seat.

If we picked up 20 seats in the House but somehow managed to pick up 3 in the Senate, I wouldn't much mind. It doesn't matter which chamber we control, just having one would block Trump significantly (and because of judicial appointments the Senate would be the better get, but it's a tougher slog even with gerrymandering as bad as it is).
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Democrats better win because I need to see an article titled "How Nancy Got Her Gavel Back"
and Tim Ryan, Kathleen Rice, Seth Moulton et. al need to eat shit.
 
O

Ogodei

Member
Holmes said:
I think the higher position takes priority, so general. Just like Clinton is addressed as secretary, not senator.
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You figure Secretary's higher than General though, due to civilian oversight. Although maybe that would only apply if he had been SoD
 
N

Nordicus

Member
Lucky Forward said:
Just kick that can right on down the road...

Rick Perry says climate change debate is "secondary" amid Harvey destruction
Click to expand...
Line them up?

97 versus 3. It is a very, very quick conversation.
9rs8g.gif
Click to expand...
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Blader said:
Random thought: how would you address John Kelly as chief of staff? General Kelly, Secretary Kelly, Mr. Kelly?
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I'm betting Trump gets it wrong multiple times per day enraging Kelly. Commannder, captain, lieutenant etc.


Ogodei said:
A narrower GOP majority would be even more paralyzed (and so less risk of them doing something stupid because the Freedom Caucus would block it), but there's no substitute for a D gavel, not in the waning month's of Trump's presidency.



"Too soon to politicize this!" like talking about gun control after a school shooting.
Click to expand...


Nah more like talking about gravity after your teetering pile of garbage falls over. Science ain't politics it's science.
 
D

Drkirby

Corporate Apologist
Blader said:
Random thought: how would you address John Kelly as chief of staff? General Kelly, Secretary Kelly, Mr. Kelly?
Click to expand...

I would personally go with Secretary Kelly if I am referring to his actions or duties in his role as Chief of Staff.

How would people refer to Obama if he went back to Congress? We haven't had a president do that in a long time.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Another day, another 34/61 spread on Gallup.

I think the budget fight would have to go very poorly for his numbers to drop from here, but it's weird how his average, floor and ceiling all seem to have converged here. An averafloiling.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
Blader said:
Random thought: how would you address John Kelly as chief of staff? General Kelly, Secretary Kelly, Mr. Kelly?
Click to expand...

FWIW:

How to Address A Chief of Staff

The Chief of Staff to the President of the United States (POTUS), as well as certain assistants, counselors, and personal representatives to the POTUS are addressed as The Honorable. [There is no permanent list published of who is and who is not so addressed, since any list might change a bit from administration to administration. Everyone else is just Mr./Ms./Dr./etc.]

On the letter's envelope and address block the form is:
The Honorable (Full Name)
(Office Held)
(Address)

In the salutation or in conversation use:
Mr./Ms./Dr./etc. (Name).

Chief of Staff is as well as Assistant, Counselor or Personal Representative are his or her 'office' but these roles are not used as honorifics with their name.
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I would think that the "etc." mentioned in the bolded above would indicate referring to him as General Kelly in conversation.
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Trump looks about as caring as I think he's capable of in Houston. I probably shouldn't be surprised that he's walking around, smiling with people and taking selfies. That's really not how you're "supposed" to look in this kind of setting, but I'm a social outcast with no sense of modern societal norms so it seems fine? There's a gif to be had of him lifting a child into the air, holding her like a diseased cat, kissing her, putting her down and her sprinting off to find their horrible parents that were dumb enough to let Trump touch their child and will be paying for her therapy for life.

He's wearing what looks like a fairly hefty jacket... even without looking I'm going to assume it's 90 and humid there so, uh, that happened. Melania conveniently has a 100% custom hat that reason "TEXAS" on the front and "FLOTUS" on the back. I'm curious about how that hat become to be.
BlastProcessing said:
@JuddLegum
Trump visits with victims of Harvey, says they are "really happy." Weirdly calls the storm "a wonderful thing for even the country to watch"

Nope.
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Okay, now this really really sounds weird. I couldn't hear everything that was going on live, and I'm glad I didn't, because I would have raged at this.
 
B

BoboBrazil

Member
aspiegamer said:
Trump looks about as caring as I think he's capable of in Houston. I probably shouldn't be surprised that he's walking around, smiling with people and taking selfies. That's really not how you're "supposed" to look in this kind of setting, but I'm a social outcast with no sense of modern societal norms so it seems fine? There's a gif to be had of him lifting a child into the air, holding her like a diseased cat, kissing her, putting her down and her sprinting off to find their horrible parents that were dumb enough to let Trump touch their child and will be paying for her therapy for life.

He's wearing what looks like a fairly hefty jacket... even without looking I'm going to assume it's 90 and humid there so, uh, that happened. Melania conveniently has a 100% custom hat that reason "TEXAS" on the front and "FLOTUS" on the back. I'm curious about how that hat become to be.
Okay, now this really really sounds weird. I couldn't hear everything that was going on live, and I'm glad I didn't, because I would have raged at this.
Click to expand...
Jacket is covering a bulletproof vest. I could see it underneath when he got off the plane.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Another day, another 34/61 spread on Gallup.

I think the budget fight would have to go very poorly for his numbers to drop from here, but it's weird how his average, floor and ceiling all seem to have converged here. An averafloiling.
Click to expand...

It's funny how the chart is super noisy and then you get to late August and all of a sudden it starts looking a lot flatter. The other notable thing is how it's flattened out at a place worse than he had been doing before. Prior to Charlottesville, his worst days were 35/59 (one day in March) and 36/60 (one day in June and another in August). After the 21st, he's only had two days below 60 disapproval.
 
B

BlastProcessing

Member
WaPo: Trump preparing withdrawal from South Korea trade deal

President Trump has instructed advisers to prepare a withdrawal from the United States’ free-trade agreement with South Korea, several people close to the process said, a move that would stoke economic tensions with the U.S. ally at a time both countries confront a crisis over North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

While it is still possible Trump could decide to stay in the agreement in order to renegotiate its terms, the internal preparations for terminating the deal are far along and the formal withdrawal process could begin as soon as this coming week, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

A number of senior White House officials are trying to prevent Trump from withdrawing from the agreement, including national security adviser H.R. McMaster, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, these people said.
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A trade war and a nuclear war all on one little peninsula!

I was wondering what would breakthrough the 34/61 floor that Gallup has developed, I think delaying/radically increasing the price of people's smartphones will probably do it.
 
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