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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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wutwutwut

Member
Hope you don't mind, but I'm not going to take you up on that freebie. I think the insaine proliferation of identical mattress companies is a pretty great summation of Silicon Valley's myopia.
And I think it's a great example of why capitalism is the best known way to organize society. Some of those companies will succeed, some will fail. In the end the mattress market will become more efficient and everyone's standard of living will improve. The whole point of capitalism is to set up an environment where technological improvements -- and yes, people's greed -- generates wealth and improves lives.

(I know that this is the ideal narrative that capitalists try to sell you on and that there's all sorts of reasons things can go wrong -- monopolies, high barriers to entry, regulatory capture, etc.)

Insular is a fine description of SV. It is a few companies and a few VCs that are making all of the decisions. immigrants are rarely in positions of power in these companies (this is changing) and even then it's only immigrants from a few areas. It's definitely insular.
Could you name a center of power that you think is less insular than SV?

A little more nuanced than that. My argument is that concentrations of power are always going to happen, so we need to be sure that the structures we create, both corporate and social account for that. I don't comment much on French politics because I don't like talking about things I don't know about. I have a very surface level view of French politics.
Oh I totally agree that concentrations of power are going to happen, and governments have an important role to play in balancing against that. My basic problem with leftist thought is that it uncritically treats some concentrations of power as good.

Cool. I would quibble and say that SV's disposition doesn;t just put them late to the game dealing with misogynists and Nazis, it actually makes it impossible.
I guess we'll see. Agreed that Twitter particularly has done a poor job so far.

My whole point is that motivations don't equal outcomes. Other factors matter more. So I think we should judge SV not by how it answers poll questions, but instead by what it's actually producing!
Yeah, SV has done bad things but has also added an incredible amount of utility to people's lives across the world. Look at Impossible Foods for example: SV produced something (with VC money!) that has the potential to save the lives of millions of animals while also making a serious dent in GHG emissions.

Scott Alexander can get very silly with his arguments at times, but he's right on the money that it's easy for people to fall into a blind-men-and-elephant trap with SV.
 

Jackson50

Member
I don't even care anymore he's not going to nuke them
He's not going to lead with a nuclear first strike, but his repeated provocations and cryptic allusions to a military strike only inflame the situation and destabilize the region. Consider Trump's likely response if North Korea were to commit an ill-advised act of stupidity to test his resolve - like the Cheonan incident or the shelling of Yeonpyeong island; that's a plausible scenario. Would anyone trust Trump to use restraint under those circumstances? I certainly would not. Not after Trump's promised to retaliate with "fire and fury." This is a powder keg, and it has the potential to escalate quickly. I worry that people are becoming desensitized to his reckless behavior.
Maybe the dumbest part of the BOTH SIDEZ-ing over Weinstein is that Dems had a donor who turned out to be a serial harasser, Republicans took their pussygrabbing donor and put him into the Oval Office.

Like come the fuck on.
I agree. Democrats would never elect someone who fits that profile.
 

Ogodei

Member
No one has an interest in escalating things with North Korea. Even if they bought into some crazy bright eyed idea that regime could be done easily (like with happened with Iraq) no one wants to take on the absurd costs it would take to bring North Korea into the modern world.

But no-one else involved in the situation has purely so few fucks to give as Trump. I think the only thing holding him back is A) knowing how much work starting a war would make for him and B) he's not sure if it would pay off in terms of his own popularity.
 
But no-one else involved in the situation has purely so few fucks to give as Trump. I think the only thing holding him back is A) knowing how much work starting a war would make for him and B) he's not sure if it would pay off in terms of his own popularity.

Trump is beyond national interests, he acts on whims which is why he is so dangerous.
 
And I think it's a great example of why capitalism is the best known way to organize society. Some of those companies will succeed, some will fail. In the end the mattress market will become more efficient and everyone's standard of living will improve. The whole point of capitalism is to set up an environment where technological improvements -- and yes, people's greed -- generates wealth and improves lives.

(I know that this is the ideal narrative that capitalists try to sell you on and that there's all sorts of reasons things can go wrong -- monopolies, high barriers to entry, regulatory capture, etc.)

I don't have a fundamental problem with capitalism. Properly regulated and managed capitalism is the best system I know about. My problem is that I think people are giving SV too much free reign and I think things are worse for it.


Could you name a center of power that you think is less insular than SV?

I would flip that and ask you to name a insular community that wields more power than SV currently does. Power and insularity almost always walk hand in hand when it's unchecked.

I would argue that SV is approaching the height of the Catholic Church in the ol' Insularity/Power matrix.

Oh I totally agree that concentrations of power are going to happen, and governments have an important role to play in balancing against that. My basic problem with leftist thought is that it uncritically treats some concentrations of power as good.


I guess we'll see. Agreed that Twitter particularly has done a poor job so far.


Yeah, SV has done bad things but has also added an incredible amount of utility to people's lives across the world. Look at Impossible Foods for example: SV produced something (with VC money!) that has the potential to save the lives of millions of animals while also making a serious dent in GHG emissions.

Scott Alexander can get very silly with his arguments at times, but he's right on the money that it's easy for people to fall into a blind-men-and-elephant trap with SV.

I would argue that the elephant metaphor works both ways here. It's hard for people to wrap their heads around everything that the algorithm revolution has brought, both good and bad.

I'm not a personal believer in Impossible Foods, I think it's another pipe dream, but assuming that they are what they say they are, the industry is dominated by 5 giants right now. I think all conversations about what SV hath wrought, needs to start and stop with an examination of what Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have done.
 

wutwutwut

Member
I would flip that and ask you to name a insular community that wields more power than SV currently does. Power and insularity almost always walk hand in hand when it's unchecked.

I would argue that SV is approaching the height of the Catholic Church in the ol' Insularity/Power matrix.
The US federal government. The Chinese Communist Party. Wall Street. Evangelicals. Homeowners in the US. Rural white men in the Midwest. All of those are more powerful and more insular than SV.

I would argue that the elephant metaphor works both ways here. It's hard for people to wrap their heads around everything that the algorithm revolution has brought, both good and bad.

I'm not a personal believer in Impossible Foods, I think it's another pipe dream, but assuming that they are what they say they are, the industry is dominated by 5 giants right now. I think all conversations about what SV hath wrought, needs to start and stop with an examination of what Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have done.
Every single one of those companies has improved the lives of billions of people.
 
Maybe the dumbest part of the BOTH SIDEZ-ing over Weinstein is that Dems had a donor who turned out to be a serial harasser, Republicans took their pussygrabbing donor and put him into the Oval Office.

Like come the fuck on.

And the funny part is that Donald was a Dem donor at the time he made those comments, I believe (to Schumer and other NY Democrats).
 

kirblar

Member
I would argue that the elephant metaphor works both ways here. It's hard for people to wrap their heads around everything that the algorithm revolution has brought, both good and bad.

I'm not a personal believer in Impossible Foods, I think it's another pipe dream, but assuming that they are what they say they are, the industry is dominated by 5 giants right now. I think all conversations about what SV hath wrought, needs to start and stop with an examination of what Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook have done.
They have provided the world with operating systems, computer hardware, a gigantic marketplace for consumer goods, and an easy way for people to stay in contact with each other throughout their lives.

These are good things!

The reason these things conglomerate is because there are tremendous scale efficiencies for many of these things. It doesn't make sense to have a billion competing OSes - this is part of why Windows Phone failed and Linux is still niche. It doesn't make sense to have a billion different social networks- this is part of why Google Plus and MySpace failed. And you gain massive amounts of value by having a singular worldwide distribution network.

Consumer goods have been getting cheaper and cheaper and more available to the masses for decades. People's quality of life has gone up across the board - the lowest 20% today is about equivalent to the 20-40% bracket in the '80s here in the states. It's part of why food has exploded in variety. The only things going up up up are education, housing, and medical care.
 
The US federal government. The Chinese Communist Party. Wall Street. Evangelicals. Homeowners in the US. Rural white men in the Midwest. All of those are more powerful and more insular than SV.

Disagree with most of those. I can see the argument about the Chinese Government, but all of the others haven't had the type fundamental effect on how societies function that SV has had over the last 15 years.

Every single one of those companies has improved the lives of billions of people.

I think billions might be an overshoot, especially for Amazon. Not sure how you would quantify that, but you seem really confident about it so I guess that counts for something.
 
This is where I'm at too. You saber rattle because diplomacy needs to be kick started, not because it's 4pm Saturday afternoon.

When a narcissist shoots 30 shots over par, someone needs to pay!

This.is.wrong

"You know, this'll get mouthbreathing bigots back to watching football!!!!111"

If ratings keep trailing off, the NFL'll be blamed on allowing it at all. It's literally the least-effective flip-flopping tactic they could've taken. This goes double if plenty of players protest this with kneeling. It's the dumbest PR checkmating of yourself I've seen from corporate America in a while, and that's saying something.
 

wutwutwut

Member
Disagree with most of those. I can see the argument about the Chinese Government, but all of the others haven't had the type fundamental effect on how societies function that SV has had over the last 15 years.
Most of them have had a fundamental effect on how societies function over much longer time scales than 15 years.

The US federal government's power is self-evident, I hope.
Evangelicals have shifted the politics of the most powerful country on earth into absurdity.
Homeowners through NIMBYism and zoning restrictions have effectively reinstated segregation.
Rural white men in the Midwest have brought the world closer to nuclear war than in a long time.

I think billions might be an overshoot, especially for Amazon. Not sure how you would quantify that, but you seem really confident about it so I guess that counts for something.
You're right, Amazon hasn't improved the lives of billions of people. Just hundreds of millions.
 
They have provided the world with operating systems, computer hardware, a gigantic marketplace for consumer goods, and an easy way for people to stay in contact with each other throughout their lives.

These are good things!

The reason these things conglomerate is because there are tremendous scale efficiencies for many of these things. It doesn't make sense to have a billion competing OSes - this is part of why Windows Phone failed and Linux is still niche. It doesn't make sense to have a billion different social networks- this is part of why Google Plus and MySpace failed. And you gain massive amounts of value by having a singular worldwide distribution network.

Consumer goods have been getting cheaper and cheaper and more available to the masses for decades. People's quality of life has gone up across the board - the lowest 20% today is about equivalent to the 20-40% bracket in the '80s here in the states. It's part of why food has exploded in variety. The only things going up up up are education, housing, and medical care.

The problem is that Social Networks really shouldn't be conglomerated. Having only one or two runs counter to how humans have always organized their societies. A person would have many, interlocking social groups all held together by a set of central tenants (morals, facts and cultural touchstones) that kept things cohesive.

This system wasn't great. I'm not purely defending it. It's a system that has harbored and empowered prejudice and hatred through history. Racism and misogyny have both been perfectly comfortable in this system.

But we are rapidly rewriting the whole thing. It's being built around creating personalized interactions that people find compelling. It's basically an inverse of the old system. We have a few dominant social networks, but instead of arranging itself around a few touchstones, each person gets their own personally crafted world.

The OS and good that you refer to was before the current age we live in. We are in the Algorythm Age, the Machine Learning Age. An age where we are fundamentally changing what it means to be part of a culture, part of a community. And the people doing it are a bunch of SV tech bros with the motto Work Fast and Break Things.

And hey, maybe it will be better! Like I said, the old way wasn;t all daisies and rainbows, but early returns ain't great and I don't see how the motivations of all of the players is going to lead to something good.

I hope you can see my concern.

Oh and Windows Phone failed because it was an OS built around fundamentally terrible design precepts. It was an ugly smear of information vomit that sucked.
 

wutwutwut

Member
The problem is that Social Networks really shouldn't be conglomerated. Having only one or two runs counter to how humans have always organized their societies. A person would have many, interlocking social groups all held together by a set of central tenants (morals, facts and cultural touchstones) that kept things cohesive.

This system wasn't great. I'm not purely defending it. It's a system that has harbored and empowered prejudice and hatred through history. Racism and misogyny have both been perfectly comfortable in this system.

But we are rapidly rewriting the whole thing. It's being built around creating personalized interactions that people find compelling. It's basically an inverse of the old system. We have a few dominant social networks, but instead of arranging itself around a few touchstones, each person gets their own personally crafted world.

The OS and good that you refer to was before the current age we live in. We are in the Algorythm Age, the Machine Learning Age. An age where we are fundamentally changing what it means to be part of a culture, part of a community. And the people doing it are a bunch of SV tech bros with the motto Work Fast and Break Things.

And hey, maybe it will be better! Like I said, the old way wasn;t all daisies and rainbows, but early returns ain't great and I don't see how the motivations of all of the players is going to lead to something good.

I hope you can see my concern.

Oh and Windows Phone failed because it was an OS built around fundamentally terrible design precepts. It was an ugly smear of information vomit that sucked.
I'm a queer person of color who grew up in a conservative milieu, and your entire premise falls on deaf ears for me. Without the global social networks that you deride I would never have found happiness.

If internet companies are destroying social networks as they've existed forever (and they aren't, they're just complementing them) then I'll happily get in line to light that fire.
 
Peter Daou is starting a podcast to take on "those from the right, left, and mainstream media that brought us Trump's presidency."

What a national treasure, he is the gift that keeps on giving.
 

Kevinroc

Member
I posted about Andy Slavitt's talking about Trump's new EO on the main thread. But if it's okay, I'll post that same info here too. Slavitt dubbed this EO and its ramifications as "synthetic repeal."

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/916069859066286081

1/ I am leaving 4 intense days in DC & now have a very different theory of what's going on in HC. Will tweet soon.

Follow if interested.

2/ GOP is now trying to create what I call "synthetic repeal."

Before I explain what that means let me tell you why this is happening.

3/ GOP has 7 years of promises and a lot of fundraising to pay back. Moore's win in AL punctuates the point that the R base is very unhappy.

4/ GOP needs to compete in primaries & fundraise. Make no mistake that is a 2018 reality weighing on them.

5/Three strategic choices:
a- say repeal failed & move on
b- promise to try again next yr
c- "synthetic repeal"

First step is "c".

6/ Synthetic repeal allows them 2 say: sure, we didn't repeal the ACA because of RINO holdouts, but before long it will be effectively done.

7/ Synthetic repeal goes after ALL the big cahuanas: huge Medicaid cuts, pre-ex protections & the mandates. WITHOUT REPLACEMENTS.

8/ CBO would score the synthetic repeal an absolute disaster.

9/ The tools for synthetic repeal are:
- An Executive Order coming next week
- The budget/tax plan
- Sabotage of the ACA (not even denied)

10/ The EO allows "association health plans"-- ability for plans to be offered with no pre-ex protections & turn ACA into a high risk pool.

11/ In states that have done things like this, like TN, premiums have skyrocketed and competitors have left the market.

12/ This Executive Order next week is a massive undermining of state's, insurance markets & American families.

13/ Anyone will be able to create a plan that usurps state authority. And across state lines.

Graham Cassidy "state's rights" 😂😂😂😂😂😂

14/ The tax cut is the other side of the nickel of Medicaid cuts.

Rs will need Medicaid 2 deal w $1 trillion+ shortfall 2 balanced budget.

15/ From their standpoint, either vehicle could work.👇

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/915419455894810625

One Senator said to me tonight: the health care bill was about hidden tax cuts. Now the tax bill is about hidden health care cuts.

16/ In fact, I've heard some say tax vehicle will be easier for Rs because opposition won't recognize it as a health care fight.

17/ Sabotage effort 2 drive up prices w no CSR payment, limit enrollment, deny/ignore state waivers is designed to beat the ACA unworkable.

18/ Someone in a position to know i surer thinking told me Assoc plans & sabotage will leave markets bare in '19 so ppl have no options.

19/ Many states will have exclusionary plans 4 healthy (like pre-ACA days, big MCD cuts. Budget also allows mandate to be cut, ⬆️ premiums.

20/ Synthetic repeal would butcher ACA beyond recognition. GOP could back 4 a draconian full repeal w yes votes coming out of necessity.

21/ The troubling part (yeah, there's a troubling part) is it can be done with much less public recognition of it all. Cc: boiling frog.

22/ This is Synthetic Repeal as I see it. No one is calling it that but that's the plan as I see it. (Couple more tweets promise that's it)

23/ SR is the most underhanded perversion of the law I can think of w little thought 4 the impact on ppl.

But it doesn't mean it will work.

24/ So response to SR? Working on it now. I won't be alone.

Right now let's #GetUSCovered. One win at a time.

End

https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/916370792925057024

Yesterday I tweeted this thread about #SyntheticRepeal of the ACA & promised 2 work on solutions.

Will tweet shortly. Follow if interested.

2/ There of course is no perfect antidote to #SyntheticRepeal it that doesn't mean we don't do everything we can.

3/ #SyntheticRepeal is stuff we no about:
-CSR pmt
-Not enforcing law
-Mktg & in person help cut
-Now allowing state waivers
-Much more...

4/ But then there's all that we don't know about or aren't public.

Call centers, website outages-- anything to depress enrollment.

5/ The number one thing is to help #GetUSCovered. All the resources 👇

Donate, volunteer, help if you can.

https://getamericacovered.org/

6/ What about the Executive Order for Assoc health plans👇 which would end pre-ex?

This EO is unlikely to be supportable by law.

7/ I connected to some lawyers, states & AG offices. They should protect consumers with vigor. Many will & we need to insist.

8/ Your doctor & hospital shouldn't do business with "insurers" that don't protect their patients-- with pre-ex, caps & essential benefits.

9/ Let me repeat: The hcare community can play many roles in stopping what the law can't.

If it's destructive 2 public health, they should.

10/ The final critical area of opposing #SyntheticRepeal is to oppose the #TaxAndMedicaidCut currently being debated.

11/ 4 ways to limit damage of #SyntheticRepeal.
1- #GetUSCovered
2- oppose EO legally, contracts
3- defeat tax cut
4- be a #healthcarevoter

12/ That's just a start. Will keep working. End
 

kirblar

Member
I'm a queer person of color who grew up in a conservative milieu, and your entire premise falls on deaf ears for me. Without the global social networks that you deride I would never have found happiness.

If internet companies are destroying social networks as they've existed forever (and they aren't, they're just complementing them) then I'll happily get in line to light that fire.
I'm gay and in a liberal bastion and the internet was still a lifesaver for me as well.
 

Teggy

Member
So dickhead Spencer snuck into Charlottesville with his buddies, had a tiki meeting at the confederate statue with a speech and snuck out before anyone could do anything about it.
 
I posted about Andy Slavitt's talking about Trump's new EO on the main thread. But if it's okay, I'll post that same info here too. Slavitt dubbed this EO and its ramifications as "synthetic repeal."
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/916069859066286081
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/915419455894810625
https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/916370792925057024

Slavitt's track record on these hair brain GOP schemes is spotty at best. Maybe this is what they will do, but his predictions of how stuff will go down has never been true, ever.
 

Vimes

Member
Slavitt's track record on these hair brain GOP schemes is spotty at best. Maybe this is what they will do, but his predictions of how stuff will go down has never been true, ever.

I've been following him during the health stuff because the PSA guys say he's the dude in the know, and all it's done is shave a few years of my life.

The repeal bills not going through doesn't mean he was ever wrong, but, I think I might be done following him for my own sake.
 
Slavitt's track record on these hair brain GOP schemes is spotty at best. Maybe this is what they will do, but his predictions of how stuff will go down has never been true, ever.
The way I see it he’s just panning out what will happen if one of their crazy plans actually work, without giving the likelihood of that happening. Which I totally get! I don’t think people should write off the horrible consequences any of the GOP’s healthcare bills would have just because “lol it won’t happen”
 

kirblar

Member
Who was it that was funding them again, prior to the recent VC stuff?

edit: Oh yeah, this - http://www.politico.com/blogs/media...vests-4-million-in-young-turks-network-186934

A firm led by former Republican governor and congressman Buddy Roemer is investing millions into The Young Turks Network to significantly increase its content, sales, and platform presence.

The investment of $4 million, with an option to go up to $8 million, came out of a conversation Roemer and The Young Turks Network founder Cenk Uygur had backstage before speaking at a conference about money in politics last year. The relationship between the conservative Louisiana politician and the founder of the progressive media outlet stemmed from both making the removal of money's influence on politics their signature issues.
 

Kevinroc

Member
The way I see it he’s just panning out what will happen if one of their crazy plans actually work, without giving the likelihood of that happening. Which I totally get! I don’t think people should write off the horrible consequences any of the GOP’s healthcare bills would have just because “lol it won’t happen”

That's basically how I see it too. Even if I do occasionally give in to my pessimism. But I do think we should be fully aware of the consequences of the GOP's attempts at enacting their agenda.
 

Who was it that was funding them again, prior to the recent VC stuff?

edit: Oh yeah, this - http://www.politico.com/blogs/media...vests-4-million-in-young-turks-network-186934

one can harp on konst being a hillary hater without this baseless idea that their doing it because of republican doners. konst has been on fox for a while and loves to shit on hilary, she’s done this for years!

some people love being in front of a camera and doing their shitck
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
No one has an interest in escalating things with North Korea. Even if they bought into some crazy bright eyed idea that regime could be done easily (like with happened with Iraq) no one wants to take on the absurd costs it would take to bring North Korea into the modern world.

I don't know if Iraq is a good comparison. North Korea doesn't have an active multinational terrorist organization operating within it to take advantage of the power vacuum. Even if there's a lot of people that buy into the propaganda to the point they will do anything to fight regardless of leadership, would they have the means to fight after the country's military structure falls apart?

But yes, there's plenty of other reasons that war would be difficult for anyone to start.
 
@ddale8
Trump on block-granting health-care: I want to deal with North Korea, "I don't want to focus on fixing somebody's back or their knee."

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Is there any question that Trump is the worst president ever?

I’m aware some others have atrocious records, but I think Trump’s sheer incompetence and idiocy pushes him well over the top.
 
OH MY GOD THIS HUCKABEE INTERVIEW

@ddale8
Trump: I got great marks on Florida/Texas, and "I think I did at least as well on Puerto Rico," it's just Puerto Rico had problems already.

@ddale8
Here is a thing Donald Trump just said about hurricanes:

DLlEuS1WAAEIJzF.jpg

@ddale8
"She's not a very capable person," President Donald Trump says of San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz.

@ddale8
Trump criticizes the media for criticizing him for throwing paper towels to Puerto Ricans. He calls the paper towels "beautiful" and "soft."

@ddale8
The Middle East is "much less of a mess" because of Trump, Trump says.

@ddale8
Trump: Yes I too promised repeal and replace, but I thought there would be a bill ready on my desk when I sat down in the Oval Office.

@ddale8
"We're the highest-taxed nation in the world," Trump lies again.

@ddale8
"Everybody was shocked. They said it wouldn't happen for years," Trump lies about the 3% Q2 growth predicted by various models and experts.

ANDT HE KICKER

@ddale8
In one interview, Trump went out of his way to call the mayor of San Juan "not a very capable person" and a mass murderer "probably smart."
 
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