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PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher

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P

PBY

Banned
LOL DEMS

Seriously, if Northam loses thats a fucking catastrophe.


Also - why is he a bad candidate? Asking wholly unironically, I looked him up on the issues and he seemed okay?
 
D

DTC

Member
Northam is actually gaining a lead in Virginia in the past few weeks. You want to know why? Because he's polling much better among independents now than he was a few weeks ago.

Why is there a difference? Look at the crosstabs. This sample had 28% democrat - 30% republican - 43% independent. 2016 was 40% democrat - 33% republican - 26% independent. There are far more democrats than republicans in Virginia, and there are not many independents. This sample is so strange.

It's just like that junk quinnipec poll that showed Northam up by +12 or whatever -- it's easy to show someone up when you poll way more democrats than republicans (that sample was like 40% dem 28% repub or something ridiculous). I could poll only republicans in California and show that Donald Trump is up in California.

The difference between polls 3 months ago is that independents have gone from Gillepsie to Northam.

Moral of the story: look at the crosstabs folks, not just the numbers. The difference between a lot of these polls is how many democrats vs republicans are polled. Look at the crosstabs.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Two rules of poll watching to keep in mind.

1) Don't overreact to a single poll.
2) Don't ignore a poll just because it's an outlier.

The aggregate suggests that Northam probably has a small lead but hasn't put this race away yet. There's genuine cause for concern but at the same time no need to panic.

Also the "LOL DEMS" and "Dems are fucked" responses because HOW CAN THE DEMOCRAT NOT BE UP BY THIRTY POINTS IN SOLID BLUE VIRGINIA kinda ignores just how high a floor Republicans have in that state.
 
B

Blader

Member
PBY said:
LOL DEMS

Seriously, if Northam loses thats a fucking catastrophe.


Also - why is he a bad candidate? Asking wholly unironically, I looked him up on the issues and he seemed okay?
Click to expand...

Bland white guy who dared to suggest that he could work with Trump if their interests align

DTC said:
Northam is actually gaining a lead in Virginia in the past few weeks. You want to know why? Because he's polling much better among independents now than he was a few weeks ago.

Why is there a difference? Look at the crosstabs. This sample had 28% democrat - 30% republican - 43% independent. 2016 was 40% democrat - 33% republican - 26% independent. There are far more democrats than republicans in Virginia, and there are not many independents. This sample is so strange.

It's just like that junk quinnipec poll that showed Northam up by +12 or whatever -- it's easy to show someone up when you poll way more democrats than republicans (that sample was like 40% dem 28% repub or something ridiculous). I could poll only republicans in California and show that Donald Trump is up in California.

The difference between polls 3 months ago is that independents have gone from Gillepsie to Northam.

Moral of the story: look at the crosstabs folks, not just the numbers. The difference between a lot of these polls is how many democrats vs republicans are polled. Look at the crosstabs.
Click to expand...

I get nervous when people start going into crosstabs to spin poll numbers because it usually means we're on the losing side :lol

Maybe they're undersampling Dems because Dems are less likely to vote in midterms?
 
D

DTC

Member
Also jesus the overreaction is insane lol. A million polls showing Northam up and you panic over 1%. This isn't like 2016 where a bunch of people said they were undecided. (In fact, in the monmouth poll, more democrats are undecided than republicans! And that's ignoring the fact that there were far less dems polled than repubs in this poll!).

Northam is up by 4% among independents! Hillary lost independents by 5 in 2016! She won the state by like 5%.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Blader said:
I get nervous when people start going into crosstabs to spin poll numbers because it usually means we're on the losing side :lol

Maybe they're undersampling Dems because Dems are less likely to vote in midterms?
Click to expand...
In this it's different- it's saying the way we lose this is if people don't turn out.
DTC said:
Also jesus the overreaction is insane lol. A million polls showing Northam up and you panic over 1%. This isn't like 2016 where a bunch of people said they were undecided. (In fact, in the monmouth poll, more democrats are undecided than republicans! And that's ignoring the fact that there were far less dems polled than repubs in this poll!).

Northam is up by 4% among independents! Hillary lost independents by 5 in 2016! She won the state by like 5%.
Click to expand...
One of the earliest polls had Northam winning while losing independents because of the R/D/I model they were using. If he's winning them that is very good.
 
P

PBY

Banned
DTC said:
Also jesus the overreaction is insane lol. A million polls showing Northam up and you panic over 1%. This isn't like 2016 where a bunch of people said they were undecided. (In fact, in the monmouth poll, more democrats are undecided than republicans! And that's ignoring the fact that there were far less dems polled than repubs in this poll!).

Northam is up by 4% among independents! Hillary lost independents by 5 in 2016!
Click to expand...

I mean, we understand the numbers. But its close, close enough to be in the MOE even.

So please don't tell me not to fucking panic after 2016.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
DTC said:
Moral of the story: look at the crosstabs folks, not just the numbers. The difference between a lot of these polls is how many democrats vs republicans are polled. Look at the crosstabs.
Click to expand...

The danger of looking at the crosstabs is that there's just so much temptation to unskew.
 
D

DTC

Member
kirblar said:
In this it's different- it's saying the way we lose this is if people don't turn out.
Click to expand...

Yeah exactly. Independents aren't going to break either way significantly it seems. I don't think there's going to be a significant enthusiasm gap either because even though off-year demographics tend to favor republicans, it's countered by the Trump effect.

Still going with my +6 Northam prediction.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
DTC said:
Also jesus the overreaction is insane lol. A million polls showing Northam up and you panic over 1%. This isn't like 2016 where a bunch of people said they were undecided. (In fact, in the monmouth poll, more democrats are undecided than republicans! And that's ignoring the fact that there were far less dems polled than repubs in this poll!).

Northam is up by 4% among independents! Hillary lost independents by 5 in 2016! She won the state by like 5%.
Click to expand...

Yes? I think it's fair to say that no one wants to see a world where polls show Gillespie is up, or there's movement towards Gillespie. This is very bad worrisome going into Election Day and I don't think it's "freaking out" to be concerned.
 
S

studyguy

Member
https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/920341592074084354
Dave Weigel (@daveweigel)
That Monmouth poll of #VAGov assumes a markedly whiter and more Republican electorate than even the 2014 midterms. Huh.
DMW1l0fW4AEr3Fl.jpg:large
Click to expand...

This sounds that Quinn poll from FL that suggested there were less minorities in FL in 2016 vs 2014 last year. Shit's ridic, don't fly off the chain over a single poll guys.
 
D

DTC

Member
PBY said:
I mean, we understand the numbers. But its close, close enough to be in the MOE even.

So please don't tell me not to fucking panic after 2016.
Click to expand...

I addressed this earlier. 2016 was a problem because there was always a significant amount of undecideds. The news media just stupidly assumed that Hillary would win most of these undecideds.

You need to look into the polls and not just take the numbers at face values. Everyone just looks at the poll numbers and doesn't take the time to look at the crosstabs, which are far, far more valuable than the poll numbers and give you a hint whether to take the poll seriously (e.g quinnipec poll showing northam up by +12 and this poll showing gillepsie up by 1 are total shit because they had awful samples). Representative samples are very impt in statistics!
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Why is that so implausible? 2016 was a whiter election than 2012 because non-white voter turnout fell.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm not questioning nearly any crosstabs after 2016. I would have lost any bet about how that election turned out when it came to that.

Bam Bam Baklava said:
What does "getting their act together" mean?
Click to expand...

From what I am reading, they aren't necessarily doing a great job of counteracting the attacks from Gillespie.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
studyguy said:
Also it's not like we don't have literally an entire half year of polling to look back on.
Reminder that Monmouth considered it a TIE in July too.
Click to expand...

Here's my issue with that, though (and keep in mind I don't believe any freaking out is necessary at this point):

When Trump started narrowing the numbers in 2016, nearly everyone on here was like "Just outliers!", "The crosstabs won't be that way in November!", "Stop bedwetting!", "Just statistical noise!", "Look at the last 3 months of polling!", etc.

The polling was showing things were narrowing. I look at that thing you posted, and polls appear to be narrowing just a bit. Nothing huge, but it appears things are getting a hair closer.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Anyways, Northam has been anywhere from 47-50 today and Gillespie has been from 44-48. Seems to point for a slight Northam favorite but there's no reason anyone should be complacent.

Going to phonebank again this weekend.
 
D

DTC

Member
Plinko said:
Here's my issue with that, though (and keep in mind I don't believe any freaking out is necessary at this point):

When Trump started narrowing the numbers in 2016, nearly everyone on here was like "Just outliers!", "The crosstabs won't be that way in November!", "Stop bedwetting!", "Just statistical noise!", "Look at the last 3 months of polling!", etc.

The polling was showing things were narrowing. I look at that thing you posted, and polls appear to be narrowing just a bit. Nothing huge, but it appears things are getting a hair closer.
Click to expand...

Trump was always doing fairly well with independents. Also high undecideds.

The thing with Virginia polls is that Northam went from around -5 independents a few months ago to +4 independents. The only difference between this poll and other polls is this poll asked more republicans to do its poll than democrats. I could ask more republicans than democrats in California and then say California is going to be really close.

fa209b2583.png


This was Virginia in 2016. The voting population could be more republican this time, but no way in hell is there going to be 43% independents like the mounmouth poll said lol.

Remember Virginia has a pretty big structural advantage for dems because they outnumber republicans. Also this sample was 77% white, when Virginia was 67% white in 2016. Sure, there'll be more white people this time because off-year electorate, but it won't be 77% white.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
DTC said:
I addressed this earlier. 2016 was a problem because there was always a significant amount of undecideds. The news media just stupidly assumed that Hillary would win most of these undecideds.

You need to look into the polls and not just take the numbers at face values. Everyone just looks at the poll numbers and doesn't take the time to look at the crosstabs, which are far, far more valuable than the poll numbers and give you a hint whether to take the poll seriously (e.g quinnipec poll showing northam up by +12 and this poll showing gillepsie up by 1 are total shit because they had awful samples). Representative samples are very impt in statistics!
Click to expand...

If you dive into the crosstabs you're looking at a lot of small subsamples. Not only will each of them have a large MoE, looking at a bunch of numbers at the same time also requires wider confidence intervals to achieve a desired family confidence. In non-technical terms, the chance of finding something that looks off in the crosstabs of a perfectly sound poll is actually pretty high.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
VA exit poll 2013

White - 72%
African-American - 20%
Hispanic - 4%
Asian - 1%

18-29 - 13%
30-44 - 23%
45-64 - 46%
65+ - 18%

D - 37%
R - 32%
I - 31%

M - 49%
F - 51%
 
E

East Lake

Member
pigeon said:
You suggested at length that I was arguing that Russia was responsible for American racism! It's comical to me that you would do that and then claim you've been acting in good faith. I preferred doubling down to this kind of po-facedness.



"Chesterton's NATO coalition" was a joke about applying Chesterton's fence to the problems with leftist foreign policy, not an effort to suggest you were arguing we should dissolve NATO. The point is that leftist foreign policy, as evidenced by posters in this thread and by DSA/Young Labor, suffers from the apparent lack of a clear perspective as to why the status quo was erected in the first place. Hint: there was still colonialism before the United Nations and it was actually worse.
Click to expand...
Lets revisit the original exchange. mlclmtckr to "why is Russia not a million times worse?" responds.

mlclmtckr said:
Because you are killing tens of thousands of people all over the world, and you have a Nazi as your head of state?
pigeon said:
Isn't that weird? I wonder how he got elected OH RIGHT IT WAS AN EVIL SCHEME PERPETRATED BY RUSSIA
Click to expand...

Russia is a relatively poor and weak country, with an evil government and imperialist ambitions. The United States is the richest and most powerful country in the world, and also has an evil imperialist government.
This conversation is really causing a lot of theoretically reasonable socialist posters to jump the shark
Click to expand...

I get that the same aesthetic reasons people say Trump is already the worst President ever lead them to think that Russia is somehow more harmful than America on the world stage but honestly it's just straight up not a possibility.
Click to expand...
The first problem being there's many reasons that Trump was elected unrelated to evil schemes perpetrated by Russia. So Russia probably doesn't attain a "million times worse supervillian status" simply for helping to elect a guy that had a ton of support within the country anyway. So the original counterpoint of yours is nonsense to begin with.

The next point you didn't even bother to respond to, instead opting to complain that socialists have jumped the shark. The point being that Russia, lacking in power compared to the United States hasn't done as much damage and can't be in honest terms called a "global supervillian a million times worse" than us. This being basically indisputable now you're complaining that socialists don't know their NATO history or something, or arguing against a strawman about Russia being responsible for america's racism which nobody said anyway. Projection much?
 
D

DTC

Member
Box of Kittens said:
If you dive into the crosstabs you're looking at a lot of small subsamples. Not only will each of them have a large MoE, looking at a bunch of numbers at the same time also requires wider confidence intervals to achieve a desired family confidence. In non-technical terms, the chance of finding something that looks off in the crosstabs of a perfectly sound poll is actually pretty high.
Click to expand...

Oh for sure. But clearly something was up demographically if all of: 1) Race was a lot more white than usually 2) A lot more repubs than dems were polled 3) Nova was under polled. All 3 of these factors imply that this poll is a lot more republican than Virginia actually is.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
What was the average polling for GA-6 before it started to head south for Ossoff? I remember the average lead for him dropping as it got closer to election day but that he also underperformed his poll numbers by several points. Of course, it's harder to poll house districts than states but it seems comparable.

also obligatory "smh it's too bad centrist ideologues would rather remain ideologically pure than nominate more electable candidates"

Crab said:
Why is that so implausible? 2016 was a whiter election than 2012 because non-white voter turnout fell.
Click to expand...
crab where you been
 
F

Futurevoid

Member
Healthcare news...

Ali Rogin‏Verified account @AliABCNews 1m1 minute ago

Senate leaders have agreed "in principal" to a bill to stabilize health markets in short term. One source says 2 year CSR deal
Click to expand...

AP Politics‏Verified account @AP_Politics 1m1 minute ago

BREAKING: Key Republican senator says he and Democratic lawmaker have reached deal on health care subsidies.
Click to expand...

Posted at the same time:

Philip Rucker‏Verified account @PhilipRucker 4m4 minutes ago

Trump claims he has the votes lined up to pass a GOP healthcare bill and will call the vote after tax cuts pass.
Click to expand...

Any normal President and I would think the he understands stabilizing the CSR payments doesn't equal a GOP Healthcare bill but moron in question doesn't know the difference.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Futurevoid said:
Healthcare news...
Click to expand...


https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/920349637676068865
Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp)
Alexander says there's no guarantee from leadership on a vote yet, says they're going to round up cosponsors & present to Schumer/McConnell
Click to expand...

I mean assuming this reaches Trump's desk I have 0 idea what he does.
If he balks it's like a meaningless gesture to have kicked it to congress.
If he signs then what? He says we did it and just delayed the CSR being paid anyway?

Also for an added laugh:

https://twitter.com/ericawerner/status/920346155522936832
Erica Werner (@ericawerner)
Marc Short exits GOP lunch, asked what WH wants for CSRs:
"A starting point is eliminating the individual mandate and employer mandate."
Click to expand...
IT'S NICE TO WANT THINGS GUYS
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
What was the average polling for GA-6 before it started to head south for Ossoff? I remember the average lead for him dropping as it got closer to election day but that he also underperformed his poll numbers by several points. Of course, it's harder to poll house districts than states but it seems comparable.

also obligatory "smh it's too be centrist ideologues would rather remain ideologically pure than nominate more electable candidates"

crab where you been
Click to expand...

Don't think the polling ever went south for Ossoff. Just that most of the undecideds went Handel.
 
L

Ludovico

Member
Plinko said:
So--does Trump take credit for this?

Or does he continue to bash the system?

He backed himself into a corner with that comment yesterday.
Click to expand...

From the Rose Garden he just recommitted to the Cassidy-Graham strat of block grants being given to states and allowing them to run HC.
 
B

Blader

Member
I think Ossoff was almost always leading against Handel before the runoff, but it was always a lead of a couple points, maybe 1 point. I think Northam's leads have generally been higher than Ossoff's were.
 
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