devilhawk said:
You take this research as proof that the surge was simply a timely coincidence to the 'results' from ethnic cleansing. I am saying that counting fewer night lights from a satellite could be just as coincidental to the 'results' of the surge. I am not saying the researchers at UCLA and elsewhere can't count, just that night lights don't prove much and could have less relation to their theory.
Just wanted to go back to the surge issue.
The Sunni Arab community in Anbar Province had already begun to organize against Al Qaeda long before the surge. Zarqawi's successor wanted to create an islamic state, and dismissed Sunni insurgents as infidels. The Sunnis retaliated, so Abu Risha and other Sunni tribesmen went to U.S. commanders to ask for weapons, thus resulting to the Sunni Awakening. By spring of 2007, long before the surge was fully in affect, the sunnis pushed back Al Qaeda, something U.S. troops couldn't do in years.
What happened next was that the U.S. military and Iraq replicated the sucess of the Sunni Awakening in Bagdad. The U.S. and the Iraqis had a helping hand with the ethnic cleansing in Bagdad. These neighborhoods were once Shia/Sunni mixed communities, but now consisted of either all Sunni or Shia communities. Soon later, Sunnis fled Iraq to neighboring countries. This allowed General Petraeus to use the extra troops from the surge and to establish a "neighborhood containment", building 16 foot barries in local communties to prevent outsiders from entering and root out any terrorists in hiding.
Another variable that reduced violence in Bagdad was the struggle in Najaf and Karbala between the Badr Brigade and Sadr's Mahdi Army. Sadr's Mahdi Army broke into various gangs and Sadr lost all control of his men, so Sadr called for a ceasefire agreement. Weeks later, the violence dropped. From then on, the Iraqi military were allowed to focus more on Diyala and Basra.
So if anything, it was the Sunni Awakening and the ceasefire from Sadr's army that reduced the violence in Iraq. What would've happened if the surge never happened? Hard to say, but I think nothing would've changed. Only difference would be that General Petraeus would have less troops to work with in using the Sunni Awakening strategy.