Larry Sabatos says Bush needs a 5-6% lead in the polls to win marginally, while Dick Morris said Clinton will help Kerry and things are pointing in his direction, and Zogby has long held that Bush would need quite a formidable effort to overcome Kerry, who has tons of advantages...
I'm pro-Bush for this election, but a Kerry win will help the Democratic wake up to the realities of terrorism IMO...
I'd be really be much more upset with a Kerry win if Republican's were in trouble in Congress, but at worst, they'll keep the House and Kerry won't be able to pass all the random stuff he's been spouting off anyway...
Bush in the White House would be ideal IMO for the so-called "War on Terror", but Kerry in the White House would at least ensure some brutal mid-terms IMO...
I think the Bush/conservative side totally dropped the ball in response to the Dean/Moore-type attacks... They have some good film responses, but only Fahrenhype 9/11 is widely available in DVD, the other two are in theatres, which is just dumb if they wanted to change minds...
I cannot believe it, but quite a few of my best friends seem to buy into the Moore's movie as undistorted, complete fact... One even almost couldn't sleep over how much the movie scared her, I wonder if she imagined Saudi's coming to rule us or what, because IMO the movie was powerful, but not distressing if you've researched it's assertions and counterpoints in advance... Some other really good buddies I've known since HS and are kinda best friends and play games with a lot in summers I guess aren't really prone to conspiracy paranoia, but the disaffection from politics in the first place probably makes Moore's attempts to affect people easier...
Like Stone and Parker, I think it's stupid and weak-minded (or maybe just ignorance) for a movie, even Fahrenheit 9/11 to change your mind or compel you to vote, for either Kerry or Bush...
There's little either candidate can do at this point, but I say the "closeness" of the race and Bush under 50% in polls is an indication that Republicans/conservatives dropped the ball in action and getting a dialouge with gullible young voters...
I think he can still win, but as an example, if he's ahead 48%-44% in Florida (just an example not citing any specific poll), he's, by historical standards, in big trouble cause undecideds break for challenger...
In all honesty though, IMO Kerry is the "lesser of two evils" in terms of fighting the war on terrorism between him and Dean. I'm a big Dean fan for some of his domestic ideas like on healthcare, but I would not trust him on security at all... at least the war wouldn't fall apart (hopefully) and a Republican could step into the race for a serious go at it in '08 (hopefully someone like McCain)... unless of course Kerry becomes unacceptable to his own party and a certain Senator from New York takes advantage to pre-empt the eventual campaign in '12 from Edwards, which would happen if Kerry wins in '04...