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[TDG]

I said "almost". Second, I can't believe you just turned picking someone experienced into a negative. I mean really.

When did I do that?

It probably did have a political element, but it does have real governance implications. How will Obama get his platform of Change enacted? Among other things, by using Biden.

On the other hand, what post-election benefits does McCain get from Palin?

Of course, Biden will definitely help an Obama presidency out with his experience, as he's very knowledgable about "the way things work in Washington." Like all of us, I'm not very knowledgable about Palin, really the only thing I can see her bringing to the table would be a fresh perspective. Being younger, she's also likely to be a bit more tuned in to what the American public is doing and thinking.

Don't get me wrong, I would much rather Joe Biden be my President than Sarah Palin, my point was simply that both were really moves to try to balance the ticket, and that the real focus of everybody (especially the campaign's attacks) should be the guys at the top of the ticket.

Can you ever see McCain getting advice from Palin on any policy issues?

Yes.

 

[Gremmie4]

Palin is very likable, and could hurt Obama's numbers with women. Democrats struggle with the male vote, especially the white male vote. The female vote has been the demographic that puts democrats in a position to win elections. I'm not saying McCain is going to magically erase the double digit deficit he has among female voters due to this selection: he doesn't need to. If he can make the loss less significant and also pull in some "Hillarycrats" who knows. All I know is that Palin should do well in small town America. Democrats making fun of the fact that she presided over a town of less than 10,000 people don't seem to get it.

It's not going to be very hard for the Obama camp to paint Palin as somebody not exactly for women rights with her being pro life and all, even in extreme cases. Plus, you have the Hillary factor. Something tells me Hillary won't take this well, and if the race is close going towards the end, she'll come out and hammer Palin hard. Also, one could make an argument that quite a few men may swing Obama's way because of the unfortunate stereotype that a woman would not be strong enough to handle decisions about foreign issues and conflicts.

 

[Cheebs]

If there's a tactical element viv frustrated Hillary supporters with this pick, it's not to siphon them off to vote for this new opportunity. It's to sew dissolution in the ranks after a unity-focused convention.

What effect do you think this has on the election overall?

 

[A Black Falcon]

...running against Michael Dukakis while Bush 41 was VP to one of the most popular presidents during our time?

Plus, this pick is more like Mondale/Ferraro in 84.

Indeed... Bush was Reagan's VP. Despite those early, ephemeral leads in the polls, Dukakis always had a long uphill path to try to win that election... and unfortunately, he failed.

But I haven't heard many people say that Quayle really helped him... but I was mostly there referring to what Quayle did once he was IN office, not perceptions beforehand -- and that after that experience, most people probably would not want to go through something like that again. Quayle was just such a disaster... that is, unless his purpose was distracting people from some of Bush I's own stupid comments, which is something he did do pretty well.

1984 is probably a better comparison... something done out of desperation that probably will not be enough to win the presidency for that candidate.

I see three groups:

1. Hillary supporters (I was in this group) that immediately went to Obama in March or so after it became clear what was going to happen. Have no problem with Barack, are enthusiastic about Barack, etc.

2. Hillary supporters that held on to the bitter end. Might not have jumped over right away, but are either coming about right now or have come about. Are rational and therefore listening to Bill and Hillary.

3. Irrationals. Will not support Barack even at the behest of Bill and Hillary.

This move is clearly targeting group 3. If, at this point, these people ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY will not vote for Barack Obama, then nothing he could have done is going to change their minds. Nothing. Probably not even putting Hillary on the ticket.

Hillaryis44 and Hillaryforums are both very much in love with the Palin pick. The question is how many people do Hillaryis44 and Hillaryforums actually represent, and, as a side question, where are they and do they matter?

I've found that we're talking about an incredibly small but loud group of people. I just don't think this is going to be a wise pick over the long haul. Salient issues are going to come up that Palin won't be able to answer for (and shouldn't have to-- she's not Hillary Clinton and doesn't share any of her principles) and will lose support of all but the most crazy 3s.

If you supported Hillary Clinton because of what she stood for (and not just what she was) and you do not support Barack Obama (or some even more liberal candidate...lulz), you are irrational. I said the same thing when PoliGAFfers in January said, "IF HILLARY WINS I AM SUPPORTING MCCAIN!!!!" Fine, then you are not voting in your own interests.

There's no point in attracting 3s. They are crazy.

edit: How many lines is that, Charlie?

On that note, I was a Hillary supporter too. Started out liking Kucinich best, because he was the only true liberal in the race, but Hillary was always my favorite of the major candidates... and I do think that the Obama team treated the Clintons pretty badly in the last few months, for sure (that is, I'd probably put myself somewhere between groups 1 and 2 -- I didn't give up on Hillary in March, but I always knew I'd vote for whoever the Democratic candidate was.). I know the Clintons did some of the same, but still, that doesn't excuse it... all the way to not even CONSIDERING Hillary for VP, which was pretty sad.

So yes, this convention, with Bill, Hillary, and Barack all saying nice things about the other side, has done a great job of healing the wounds, I think. I mean, I was always going to vote for whoever the Democratic candidate was, of course, but I'm much happier about it with them reconciling like this, compared to continuing on the feud into the general election campaign and keeping out there those reasons to not like Obama (if you were a Hillary supporter like I was)... this really was a fantastic convention. Great speeches by Ted Kennedy, Hillary and Bill Clinton, John Kerry, Joe Biden, Obama... positive references to the other side by both of the Clintons and Obama... Obama finally getting into the hard policy specifics in one of his speeches, instead of those usual annoyingly vague generalities... great convention. I absolutely think it will help narrow the gap with the holdout Hillary supporters.

Of course not ALL of them are going to come over to Obama, because some really don't understand the stakes (things such as how voting for McCain almost certainly means a reversal on Roe v. Wade and abortion being made illegal in many states, or how it also almost certainly means war with Iran and much higher tensions with Russia), but more will than otherwise.

 

[grandjedi6]

You used the word "trick." As if the unity issue didn't exist, but was used as a ploy to "trick" McCain into picking Palin.

It's as ridiculous as the intentionally retarded comment I wrote.

You are just trying to start something if you think my comment was referencing a media conspiracy.

 

[Mandark]

The thing is that you can actually see President Obama consulting with Biden on issues of foriegn policy (and, to some extent, things like transportation and banking) due to his experience in the matter.

Can you ever see McCain getting advice from Palin on any policy issues?

"Hey dollface, walk those gams over here and tell me how this press release will play with the broads!"

 

[Stoney Mason]

I see three groups:

1. Hillary supporters (I was in this group) that immediately went to Obama in March or so after it became clear what was going to happen. Have no problem with Barack, are enthusiastic about Barack, etc.

2. Hillary supporters that held on to the bitter end. Might not have jumped over right away, but are either coming about right now or have come about. Are rational and therefore listening to Bill and Hillary.

3. Irrationals. Will not support Barack even at the behest of Bill and Hillary.

This move is clearly targeting group 3. If, at this point, these people ABSOLUTELY POSITIVELY will not vote for Barack Obama, then nothing he could have done is going to change their minds. Nothing. Probably not even putting Hillary on the ticket.

Hillaryis44 and Hillaryforums are both very much in love with the Palin pick. The question is how many people do Hillaryis44 and Hillaryforums actually represent, and, as a side question, where are they and do they matter?

I've found that we're talking about an incredibly small but loud group of people. I just don't think this is going to be a wise pick over the long haul. Salient issues are going to come up that Palin won't be able to answer for (and shouldn't have to-- she's not Hillary Clinton and doesn't share any of her principles) and will lose support of all but the most crazy 3s.

If you supported Hillary Clinton because of what she stood for (and not just what she was) and you do not support Barack Obama (or some even more liberal candidate...lulz), you are irrational. I said the same thing when PoliGAFfers in January said, "IF HILLARY WINS I AM SUPPORTING MCCAIN!!!!" Fine, then you are not voting in your own interests.

There's no point in attracting 3s. They are crazy.

edit: How many lines is that, Charlie?

Pretty much agree. If you were in group 3 then you probably were never going to vote for Obama so on the face of it, it seems like an odd choice.

What I assume he thinks will happen is that there is a 4th group of women in general that will collectively change their opinion when they see what she has to offer and that Mccain is serious about empowering women.

I understand it I suppose in some weird way but I just don't think it will work.

 

[GDJustin]

Terrifying choice? Give me a break. You think she's going to somehow force Creationism into schools, that she's going to send hit squads to abortion clinics? Unbelievable.

Someone here had a good line about idealogy vs. operational circumstances. Wish I could find it but this thread is huge.

I think she's terrifying because of her lack of ANY kind of national or world political experience, not because of her beliefs.

I'm a libertarian strongly leaning towards Obama for the general, FYI.

I honestly and truly believe that if the McCain ticket wins, but then she ends up sworn-in, that she would be completely and profoundly in over her head.

 

[Tamanon]

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/08/consolidating-the-hispanic-vote/?section=Analysis

This explains why Arizona is so close to being in play I guess....insane.

Barack Obama holds a commanding lead among Hispanics in the southwest.� The presumptive Democratic nominee leads John McCain by 45 points in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, according to the latest Democracy Corps survey of Hispanic voters.[1]

Just a few months ago, analysts were questioning whether Obama had a Latino problem, given the success of Hillary Clinton among Hispanics during the primaries.� Today, Obama has a chance to perform better among Hispanic voters than any Democratic presidential candidate in recent history.� In the four southwestern states, he is running an average 10 points ahead of John Kerry’s share of the vote four years ago, while McCain receives only a bare majority of Bush’s 2004 Latino vote.

Obama has consolidated the Democratic Hispanic vote in a way that he has yet to do among non-Hispanic white voters.� Nationally, Obama runs 3 points below the generic Democratic presidential vote among white voters, but among Latinos his vote effectively matches the generic preference for a Democrat.[2]� He also holds a nearly 2-1 lead among independent Hispanics.

69 to 24, that's absolutely silly.

 

[thekad]

To all those afraid of a Palin-runned America, I suggest we wait until we know her a little better. I'm sure half of you were hesistant of Obama until you saw his knowedge of the most minute of issues.

Palin having "no opinion" on Iraq is troubling though...

 

[Krowley]

she is going to have a massive rural appeal. I live in a very small town and I can tell you that everybody I know, was immediatley taken with her.

The "you come from a state in the middle of nowhere so your experience doesn't count" angle, is only going to piss off rural america and make them like her more.

A lot of the swing voters that mccain is trying to get are rural blue dog democrats. Many of these people are also disaffected Hilary voters. They were never going to vote for Obama, but it was also questionable whether they would vote at all. This pick is designed to appeal to them and it will work.

 

[UltimaKilo]

Sexist. She's not just a woman, she's an NRA card carrying hunter who plays basketball and orders wolves killed. In short, she's a good old boy with tits, and who doesn't like that?

But does she play video games?

 

[Hitokage]

I know the Clintons did some of the same, but still, that doesn't excuse it... all the way to not even CONSIDERING Hillary for VP, which was pretty sad.

Clinton didn't want to be vetted unless she was guaranteed the pick.

 

[xs_mini_neo]

Of course. But let's say you're in the life insurance business - what will you charge John and what will you charge Barack?

And at any rate, I'll gladly take Biden over some dumb bitch from bumfuck nowhere who won the lottery and wound up in a position where she has no right to be due to convenience to a desperate candidate.

Sexist and an Alaska hater?

There was no reason to give this to Palin other than the fact that she is a woman.

That's the equivalent of saying Obama only got it because he's black. Attack policy, not gender/race.

 

[Chiggs]

You are just trying to start something if you think my comment was referencing a media conspiracy.

I have no idea who you are, what your character is, what your post history is, etc. I wasn't trying to start anything, I was just responding to your post. My apologies, as it would seem I misinterpreted it.

 

[Imm0rt4l]

Oh shit.

This is NOT what I wanted to hear from Hilary.

Where's the red meat she had for Barack?

Jeezuz Hilary

I think she's just trying not to seem "caty"

 

[Y2Kev]

Man that doesn't make any sense... Palin's views on issues are directly opposite of Hillary, She's Pro-Life, Pro NRA, ect, these were the things Clinton was adamantly against. So by supporting her, they are going against all the values they hold true. Obama has much much more in common with Hillary.

In conclusion I fucking hate feminists.

This doesn't even necessarily matter to feminists. Both my mom and aunt called me right after the pick to complain about how they saw it as opportunistic and disingenuous. McCain picking Palin is as much about shattering the glass ceiling as it is about attracting to a group of literally insane message board posters. Palin is no feminist, and I'm not sure Hillary fans are feminists either. If they were, they would never, ever vote for McCain.

Frankly, I think some of the major Hillary crazy breeding grounds are jokes at this point. The admin on Hillaryis44 has to be joking. He takes the most positive news story from the day before and spins it with a question mark at the end. Article posted. There you go.

Palin still looks like she was vetted for about 30 seconds.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

The whole "experience" argument is ridiculous on both sides. Didn't George Bush have lots of "experience" on paper? If anything intelligence and common sense qualify you better than the "experience" candidates have...something that GW cleary lacks.

It is, really. Let the pundits talk about the dubiousness of selecting Palin given her lack of experience. It's really in the Obama campaign's best interest to not go anywhere near that fight. I'm not saying it would be disastrous, but they would really have to choose their words carefully.

 

[Tamanon]

Sexist and an Alaska hater?



That's the equivalent of saying Obama only got it because he's black. Attack policy, not gender/race.

No....Obama was elected, that's still different.

 

[besada]

But does she play video games?

Dunno, but she smoked pot, and that's nearly as good.

 

[Hitokage]

It is, really. Let the pundits talk about the dubiousness of selecting Palin given her lack of experience. It's really in the Obama campaign's best interest to not go anywhere near that fight. I'm not saying it would be disastrous, but they would really have to choose their words carefully.

Obama wants to neutralize the experience line and shift it to one of judgement, and Palin plays right into that.

 

[Cheebs]

she is going to have a massive rural appeal. I live in a very small town and I can tell you that everybody I know, was immediatley taken with her.
.

I don't believe you. this was at an odd morning hour AFTER the morning shows/papers. I doubt everyone in your small town has an opinion of her already.

 

[Stinkles]

Dunno, but she smoked pot, and that's nearly as good.

She didn't like it. Square.

 

[teruterubozu]

Dunno, but she smoked pot, and that's nearly as good.

It's a requirement for high office these days.

 

[grandjedi6]

To all those afraid of a Palin-runned America, I suggest we wait until we know her a little better. I'm sure half of you were hesistant of Obama until you saw his knowedge of the most minute of issues.

Palin having "no opinion" on Iraq is troubling though...

Of course. The problem with Palin is not merely herself and experience but the lack of exposure. Had the McCain campaign introduced her far earlier and worked on building her national cred. it may have gone over better. But instead they suddenly and randomly announced her causing America to give a collective "Who?"

 

[Stoney Mason]

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/08/consolidating-the-hispanic-vote/?section=Analysis

This explains why Arizona is so close to being in play I guess....insane.



69 to 24, that's absolutely silly.

The sad thing is Mccain is one of the few Republicans who had a history of not demagoguing the immigration issue. I sorta regret that may be taken as a cue from the rest of his party to become even more "Tancredo-ish" on that issue. Of course I don't want to make it seem like Hispanic Americans only care about immigration issues.

 

[VALIS]

If there's a tactical element viv frustrated Hillary supporters with this pick, it's not to siphon them off to vote for this new opportunity. It's to sew dissolution in the ranks after a unity-focused convention.

Which might have worked if they picked a centrist female, not one who's on the opposite side of the fence of female Hillary supporters on most issues.

 

[A Black Falcon]

Clinton didn't want to be vetted unless she was guaranteed the pick.

I still think she should have been the pick, really.

I do think that Biden was the best second-choice pick, though. Biden, I thought, had by far the best foreign-policy program of any of the Democratic candidates this cycle... after Kucinich and Clinton, he was my third favorite of the canddiates. He didn't just have the most experience, but also the best plans. Yes, he voted for the war because, like many, he was fooled into it by the Bush administration's lies, but once he realized that those lies were indeed lies, he turned on it quite strongly. Biden's a very good choice... but ideally, it should have been Clinton.

This doesn't even necessarily matter to feminists. Both my mom and aunt called me right after the pick to complain about how they saw it as opportunistic and disingenuous. McCain picking Palin is as much about shattering the glass ceiling as it is about attracting to a group of literally insane message board posters. Palin is no feminist, and I'm not sure Hillary fans are feminists either. If they were, they would never, ever vote for McCain.

Frankly, I think some of the major Hillary crazy breeding grounds are jokes at this point. The admin on Hillaryis44 has to be joking. He takes the most positive news story from the day before and spins it with a question mark at the end. Article posted. There you go.

Palin still looks like she was vetted for about 30 seconds.

Indeed... no Hillary supporter seriously considering voting for McCain could under any circumstances call themselves a feminist. Somebody isn't a feminist just because they're female... they're a feminist if they support policies which are pro-women. Palin's political views rule her out from that, for sure. The same applies to other radical-right women like Ann Coulter (who has even said that women shouldn't be allowed to vote), not that Palin is like her. Palin has seemed to be a bit moderate on gay rights... doesn't make up for her abortion and evolution views among others, though.

 

[Captain Pants]

If there's a tactical element viv frustrated Hillary supporters with this pick, it's not to siphon them off to vote for this new opportunity. It's to sew dissolution in the ranks after a unity-focused convention.

This is a good point. You might be right. It bothers me that McCain isn't focused on picking someone who will help him after the election, should he win. Picking her to stir shit up will either be readily seen as a mistake in the near future when he loses, or further down the road when he wins and realizes she isn't qualified.

 

[UltimaKilo]

Dunno, but she smoked pot, and that's nearly as good.

Dude, perfect wife. I'm sure she wouldn't bitch at you for playing video games and going out to play basketball. :lol

 

[Chiggs]

Best guess: how upset are Romney and Tawplenty?

 

[Cheebs]

Of course. The problem with Palin is not merely herself and experience but the lack of exposure. Had the McCain campaign introduced her far earlier and worked on building her national cred. it may have gone over better. But instead they suddenly and randomly announced her causing America to give a collective "Who?"

If they thought about using her before they would have done the traditional route of sending her to the political tv shows to defend mccain to get her name and face out there. It must have been a last minute thing.

 

[Imm0rt4l]

When did I do that?

Of course, Biden will definitely help an Obama presidency out with his experience, as he's very knowledgable about "the way things work in Washington." Like all of us, I'm not very knowledgable about Palin, really the only thing I can see her bringing to the table would be a fresh perspective. Being younger, she's also likely to be a bit more tuned in to what the American public is doing and thinking.

Don't get me wrong, I would much rather Joe Biden be my President than Sarah Palin, my point was simply that both were really moves to try to balance the ticket, and that the real focus of everybody (especially the campaign's attacks) should be the guys at the top of the ticket.

Yes.

I actually think she'd be further removed from what America is thinking, being so far right and living out in BFE.

 

[speculawyer]

Politically incorrect joke enclosed, don't read if you are easily offended:

A bumper sticker for the new GOP presidential ticket:

Spoiler

McCain/bush 08

 

[Fragamemnon]

McPain 08

What on earth is McCain thinking.

Here we go, lovely downtown Wasilla,AK:

Fucking hell why didn't he just choose the mayor from one of those interstate shanty towns on I-10 in the Florida Panhandle.

 

[Father_Brain]

Which might have worked if they picked a centrist female, not one who's on the opposite side of the fence of female Hillary supporters on most issues.

Yep. As Y2Kev said above, any Hillary supporter deranged enough to vote for a ticket like McCain-Palin would almost certainly never have voted for Obama anyway.

 

[UltimaKilo]

Best guess: how upset are Romney and Tawplenty?

I can see Romney a bit flustered, but now Pawlenty. He's probably just disappointed. I would expect Romney to be a part of the administration anyways.

 

[Y2Kev]

Chiggs:

I bet Romney is really pissed off. Really, really pissed off. But he's a selfish twatburger who hated McCain anyway.

Yep. As Y2Kev said above, any Hillary supporter deranged enough to vote for a ticket like McCain-Palin would almost certainly never have voted for Obama anyway.

I completely agree.

McCain could have disrupted the Obama cycle with a pick like Christie Whitman or even KayBayHutch. Strong woman, pro-choice, lots of experience, and hell, Whitman even HAS the label of being a maverick (as well as being a failure sort of, lol).

That just goes to show you how strong the pro-life litmus test is for the Republicans right now.

 

[Door2Dawn]

 

[Illuminati]

I think she already showed lack of leadership and initiative to keep people safe. I mean come on, she let a whole town be decimated by vampires for 30 whole days and never raised one finger to help. Imagine how she would be with terrorists??!!

:lol

 

[Fragamemnon]

The sad thing is Mccain is one of the few Republicans who had a history of not demagoguing the immigration issue. I sorta regret that may be taken as a cue from the rest of his party to become even more "Tancredo-ish" on that issue. Of course I don't want to make it seem like Hispanic Americans only care about immigration issues.

A good question for the media to ask is if John McCain supports Senator John McCain's immigration bill.

 

[besada]

Dude, perfect wife. I'm sure she wouldn't bitch at you for playing video games and going out to play basketball. :lol

Her husband is a snowmobile racer, so I imagine she's pretty open to weird and useless pastimes.

And the media should totally be using the following super-hot picture of her. Makes me want to get all dewey decimal on her.

 

[Chiggs]

A bumper sticker for the new GOP presidential ticket:

Spoiler

McCain/bush 08

I don't get it. Does she like shrubbery?

 

[Chris R]

Dude, perfect wife. I'm sure she wouldn't bitch at you for playing video games and going out to play basketball. :lol

Well her husband is a four time winner of the Iron dog snowmachine race and is know as Alaska's "First Dude" :lol

 

[TDG]

I actually think she'd be further removed from what America is thinking, being so far right and living out in BFE.

That's true, although even living in Alaska, I'd bet she'd be able to help McCain understand Google and Facebook and these sort of things.

 

[pxleyes]

What does that text say, that image is horribly compressed.

 

[APF]

What effect do you think this has on the election overall?

This is an enormous gamble, even though as I said it's rare for someone to really be swayed by a VP choice. I think a campaign strategist (and by that I mean an R strategist, although the same could be said of a D one) can see a hundred tactical opportunities potentially opened up by the pick, that they couldn't necessarily see with someone like Mitt Romney (it makes McCain's campaign a generational one, a historic one. a change one, reasserts his maverkicyness, goads the Obama folk into attacking lack of experience, as I said previously it sews dissent in the Dems after a tough primary they tried to mend with a unity convention, keeps the conflict with Hillary in the news, could be some connection with drilling, etc). However it really can just completely explode in his face, which is why a lot of folks here are saying he just kneecapped his run. Look at Frag's comment though, about trying to imagine JSM consulting with her on FP, like you can with Obama consulting Biden: of course you can imagine Obama consulting with Biden; he needs to.

 

[UltimaKilo]

Her husband is a snowmobile racer, so I imagine she's pretty open to weird and useless pastimes.

Perfect, nobody to bitch at me about my ATV!

 

[Stinkles]

McPain 08

What on earth is McCain thinking.

Here we go, lovely downtown Wasilla,AK:

Fucking hell why didn't he just choose the mayor from one of those interstate shanty towns on I-10 in the Florida Panhandle.

To be fair, she did save the whole town from 30 days of Vampires.

 

[Krowley]

I don't believe you. this was at an odd morning hour AFTER the morning shows/papers. I doubt everyone in your small town has an opinion of her already.

:lol let me correct myself...

Everyone I've talked to, which is about 9 people. I also know my area (rural mountains of north georgia) well enough to tell you that she's going to be a huge hit here. A bible thumping, deer hunting governmnet reformer who's sexy as hell, and seems honest, is an instant win here.

She has charisma in the same way that Huckabee does, maybe not to the same extent, but she's very likable. This is the same group of people that mccain had some trouble with in the primary's. If you'll remember, Huckabee won georgia and several other states, mostly by dominating towns like mine.. If Mccain can get rural america to turn out it's going to help him a lot.