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[Log4Girlz]

Will they lump PS2 and PS4 sales this time next year?

 

[AOC83]

usually the way of things has been that through a first couple of years, a fanbase builds very slowly. this was actually true of the 360 and ps3. by the time the system is affordable for the mass market, the install base is high enough that bigger games can make the sales they need to make a profit.

the sega genesis came out to a lukewarm response at best. sega made serious inroads in the western market when sonic the hedgehog came out, by bundling it with the system (replacing altered beast), slashing the price, and rolling out a heavy marketing campaign. it was kinda-sorta against what the japanese branch wanted, but it worked out beautifully for them.

the original playstation also wasn't a smash hit. it had no problem beating the saturn when it was the only competition for two years, but the n64 was expected to crush it. but again, after two years, the system had a price drop, the right software, and the right marketing, and a decent install base where it could continue to get big third party games.

things are different now in the handheld gaming market, but there's no rule that says sony can't make the next big thing on the vita if they wanted. who expected brain age to sell 14 million units when it debuted with 40,000 in first-week sales in 2005?



i think it's less about the ps vita being the extra controller or whatever, and more about it perhaps receiving software due to its relation to the ps4. if it's bigger franchise titles, it could be the kick in the pants it needs to stay steady for the next couple years and land with a respectable lifetime sales of about 30m units or so.

None of the platforms you listed was ever in a state as dire as the Vita is. They all had third and first party support and much much better software and hardware sales.

And hoping for the "next big thing" is a terrible business strategy because that´s about as likely as winning the lottery. Nintendo is learning that the hard way right now.

Same goes for porting console games to a handheld, that hasn´t worked well with the PSP and even less so with the Vita.
People are simply not interested in playing worse version of console games on a handheld.

 

[vivftp]

It, or something like it, is the only optimistic read of the forecast.

It's low, so it does suggest they don't see anything coming to ignite the platform. Unless Vita will be sold through other hardware in the future, which would render standalone Vita sales less significant.

Dunno what their plans are though. Andrew House had slightly cryptic comments about plans to be announced 'later this year' at the Feb meeting about leveraging the Vita chipset and OS, in a living room context...whatever that means.

My theory is that means a Vita tablet.

I have seen Sony say that they view phones as devices for outside the home and tablets for inside the home and living room. If they are continuing this mentality that could mean a Vita tablet.

The only other option is Vita hardware in blurays and TVs, and I don't see that happening. I suppose it could be some sort of weird reference to Vita and PS4, but I doubt that too.

 

[Canis lupus]

I guess PS3 just passed Wii LTD software sales

PS3 748M, +FY2012 (154M)

Wii 869M


PS2 is grouped with PS3 but software sales of the PS2 are insignificant, last FY only 7.9M

 

[Panajev2001a]

Arguing about who "wins" between PS3 and 360 is quite pathetic, the difference is small enough for it to be technically a draw, and I doubt it's gonna change since the generation is ending.

That and if the PS3 was truly, clearly ahead, Sony would just give us straight numbers and throw a PR instead of going for this +PS2 bullshit.

Considering PS3 launched almost 1 year after the Xbox 360 did, launched at a higher price, and had some problems with some multi-platform games in the first year or so... Well, SCE did a mighty impressive job turning the PS3 business around. Even matching the Xbox 360 LTD sales is impressive given all of that, especially given Xbox 360 headstart, but besting it would be even better for Sony's management as it gives investors and third party publisher a strong sign that they do shepherd their own platform vigorously.

 

[metalslimer]

Will they lump PS2 and PS4 sales this time next year?

If they're still trying to convince people they care about Vita in any way probably. PS3 sales are fine and don't need to be lumped with PS2. I guess also if PS4 bombs.

 

[Sandfox]

Pokémon?
Nintendo also showed that Diamond / Pearl, HeartGold / SoulSilver and Black / White sold combined 1 million units last fiscal year.

That's still not a good sign for the Vita. If you subtract Pokemon its still too close for it to be acceptable at all.

 

[pieatorium]

Same goes for porting console games to a handheld, that hasn´t worked well with the PSP

Monster Hunter

 

[sTeLioSco]

None of the platforms you listed was ever in a state as dire as the Vita is. They all had third and first party support and much much better software and hardware sales.

And hoping for the "next big thing" is a terrible business strategy because that´s about as likely as winning the lottery. Nintendo is learning that the hard way right now.

Same goes for porting console games to a handheld, that hasn´t worked well with the PSP and even less so with the Vita.
People are simply not interested in playing worse version of console games on a handheld.

don't compare handhelds in today's market with home consoles.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Is this saying PSP/PS Vita combined sold more than 3DS in Jan-March 2013?

No, it's saying it sold more than NDS combined. lol

 

[AniHawk]

So if everything reverses course, and somehow magically big titles start appearing on Vita everything could change. Well I guess we should just wait for that one big title to spark the 360 plug in Japan since anything is possible. Vita's max right now is at best 20 million or so and that's assuming the platform has a full lifespan and can carve a niche in Japan long enough to sell over 5 million there.

nah i'm just saying if things are steady from here on out, it might be able to have sold a respectable amount of systems when all is said and done. we know that there are games which will sell the system. there will probably be more. sony will only discontinue the device if it doesn't make them a profit. if it turns a tidy amount of cash for them and keeps smaller devs happy, then i don't see any reason why the system's plug will be pulled.

the worst case scenario is that sales decline sharply from where they are right now, despite new software. so instead of doing 8-10k a week in the us, it's more like 2-3k, putting it around current psp levels.

 

[Sandfox]

No, it's saying it sold more than NDS combined. lol

He's right about the Vita outselling the 3DS and its probably because of the price drop.

 

[1st Course]

I guess PS3 just passed Wii LTD software sales

PS3 748M, +FY2012 (154M)

Wii 869M


PS2 is grouped with PS3 but software sales of the PS2 are insignificant, last FY only 7.9M

PS3 SW for FY2011 was 595m. PS3 SW should be at 750m as of now, it will surpass the Wii SW this year.

 

[metalslimer]

nah i'm just saying if things are steady from here on out, it might be able to have sold a respectable amount of systems when all is said and done. we know that there are games which will sell the system. there will probably be more. sony will only discontinue the device if it doesn't make them a profit. if it turns a tidy amount of cash for them and keeps smaller devs happy, then i don't see any reason why the system's plug will be pulled.

the worst case scenario is that sales decline sharply from where they are right now, despite new software. so instead of doing 8-10k a week in the us, it's more like 2-3k, putting it around current psp levels.

No we don't. And if thing keep are at their steady rate it will come nowhere close to 30 million unless it explodes in Japan where it's best prospects are a FFX/X-2 port and a God Eater multiplatform game. Also if it does decline into that range retailers will axe the system for them. You can't find the PSP in most places in America. It doesn't matter if Sony makes a miniscule profit in the end if retailers can't make their money, and its even worse for vita with a supposed high rate of DD, then it doesn't matter unless Sony decides to only sell Vita online as some kind of indie player/PS4 accessory

 

[Lagspike_exe]

They shoud sell Vaio division. The premium PC market is dead.

Tablet Z is a good product, but Android tablets are more about fortifying the market share than profit, since the margins are quite low.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Also very interesting. Are they essentially "saving" this in case they need to use such a declaration to avoid a net loss?

No, they just don't want to declare the profits and then have to declare a loss again should the yen strengthen to previous levels if the BoJ lets up on the new monetary policy.

It's the prudent thing to do. Good treasury management from Sony. Unlike other Japanese companies, Sony has managed to pull out a net profit without an FX gain. That's something Kaz should be lauded for. Panasonic and others will show a net profit on the back of FX gains, the business will lose money though.

 

[TheKayle]

So is PS3 second place now?

if u think that this matter anymore...yeah maybe they second place


(clearly not in incomes......they will be third for long time still..obv)

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

I'm reading the entire report and things are not looking good for SONY.

Without their Financial Services, they are still losing a lot of money.
I think it was a smart move to sell some of their buildings but they added 1.7 billion $ in long term debt if I'm reading it right.

Why would you get rid of their financial services? it's a part of the company.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

They shoud sell Vaio division. The premium PC market is dead.

Tablet Z is a good product, but Android tablets are more about fortifying the market share than profit, since the margins are quite low.

http://www.theverge.com/2013/5/9/4314834/sony-13-inch-vaio-duo-windows-8-slider-leaks

This should be an Android tablet.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

He's right about the Vita outselling the 3DS and its probably because of the price drop.

I see it now, i was looking at the software sales instead of hardware, but really, selling more in January really means nothing, sadly.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

They shoud sell Vaio division. The premium PC market is dead.

The premium PC market has been looking for a messiah a long time now. Both Sony and Toshiba seem to think there's a market there if you look at the VAIO Fit and the Kirabook. You don't need to have 5,000% margins like Apple's MacBooks to make a profit in PCs, just be better than Dell's shit and people will buy.

Tablet Z is a good product, but Android tablets are more about fortifying the market share than profit, since the margins are quite low.

I don't know what the hell you're talking about. The margins for flagship smartphones and tablets are heart stopping. Well, low-end Android tablets have no margin, but the Xperia Tablet Z isn't playing on the low end.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

PS3 SW for FY2011 was 595m. PS3 SW should be at 750m as of now, it will surpass the Wii SW this year.

It's also on course to beat the Wii in HW shipments. So uhm... first place finish?

 

[AniHawk]

None of the platforms you listed was ever in a state as dire as the Vita is. They all had third and first party support and much much better software and hardware sales.

sega only shipped a reported 2.8m sega genesis consoles to north america between 1989 and 1991. during the first year, shipments were only at 1.2m, which isn't that far removed from where the vita was after its first year. in japan, they only shipped 400k in the first year.

the first-party support was neat, but it didn't turn heads until the system was three years old and sonic the hedgehog was released. i'm not sure about the state of third-parties on the system in its formative years.

as for the playstation, it sold 1.5m in the us in its first 14 months. again, not too different from how the vita started. i know the third-party support was initially better, but the bulk of what made the system super popular didn't start arriving until 1997, when the console had a us install base of about 2.9m.

 

[Canis lupus]

http://www.theverge.com/2013/5/9/4314834/sony-13-inch-vaio-duo-windows-8-slider-leaks

This should be an Android tablet.

To be honest I'm not a fan of the slider concept but that looked good, 10h battery life on W8 Pro, I hope it is slimmer than the Duo 11.

PS3 SW for FY2011 was 595m. PS3 SW should be at 750m as of now, it will surpass the Wii SW this year.

Yeah made a mistake there lol.

 

[DarkMehm]

Another thing to note is that the PSP will most likely pass the GBA when all is said and done, though we may never know when or if it happened. 76.3 + ~3.5 and it still is shipping, so it should reach 81.5 million.

Software isn't that far behind either. It should be at like 340-345 million, though it probably won't quite reach the 377 million the GBA has. Still, not bad for a system which according to sales agers never really sold any software. If it teaches anything, don't just analyse with Top 10 rankings. I see a lot of "this has bombed" or "that has bombed" just because it wasn't in the NPD Top 10. Games sell beyond the Top 10.

 

[AniHawk]

No we don't. And if thing keep are at their steady rate it will come nowhere close to 30 million unless it explodes in Japan where it's best prospects are a FFX/X-2 port and a God Eater multiplatform game. Also if it does decline into that range retailers will axe the system for them. You can't find the PSP in most places in America. It doesn't matter if Sony makes a miniscule profit in the end if retailers can't make their money, and its even worse for vita with a supposed high rate of DD, then it doesn't matter unless Sony decides to only sell Vita online as some kind of indie player/PS4 accessory

yes we do. i'm talking about games that have already come out and done the job. stuff like persona 4, pso, and soul sacrifice appeal to an audience that has bought the system in higher quantities. final fantasy x/x-2 and god eater should do well. there's a niche audience there that seems like a rather loyal fanbase. even in the us, something like virtue's last reward sells almost as much as it does on the 3ds.

 

[noobie]

Yes, Vita shipments, behind PSP.

Anyway, if we can get a question I've requested that our guy ask the COO for a breakdown of PS3 and Vita sales and ask why they are obfuscating current gen sales with last gen products.

Can you ask your guy to ask why they reduced the mobile shipment from 50 million to 42 million for the fiscal year 2013 - 14?

and do you know why Sony never gives its game franchises shipment like Nintendo gives?

 

[Bruno MB]

One more time combining platforms.

Well, their forecast for portable handhelds shows what we already knew, they have given up on PS Vita. They won't try any kind of turnaround. At least the platform found its niche in Japan though outside that region it is completely done.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Can you ask your guy to ask why they reduced the mobile shipment from 50 million to 42 million for the fiscal year 2013 - 14?

and do you know why Sony never gives its game franchises shipment like Nintendo gives?

They never officially endorsed the 50m figure, it was an analyst figure. I still think 50m is a good target, but with the possible realignment of the flagship to H2 I can understand a cautious forecast.

No need to. They are not purely a game company. If Sony were to break down sales into that much detail for every division the earnings release would be over a 100 pages...

 

[AniHawk]

Another thing to note is that the PSP will most likely pass the GBA when all is said and done, though we may never know when or if it happened. 76.3 + ~3.5 and it still is shipping, so it should reach 81.5 million.

Software isn't that far behind either. It should be at like 340-345 million, though it probably won't quite reach the 377 million the GBA has. Still, not bad for a system which according to sales agers never really sold any software. If it teaches anything, don't just analyse with Top 10 rankings. I see a lot of "this has bombed" or "that has bombed" just because it wasn't in the NPD Top 10. Games sell beyond the Top 10.

i doubt the psp will reach the gba. the system's selling less than 10k a month in the us, and less than 35k a month in japan. even if europe sold what the us and japan did combined, the system would barely make a million in sales for the year.

as far as the psp selling software, it actually did have a pretty normal ltd for a handheld (which is usually around 4... the ds's attach rate was 6:1, and that itself is kinda godly considering how many systems were sold).

 

[BriBri]

If the PS4 is a slow-starter, why not lump together the whole PlayStation brand? 2, 3, 4, PSP & Vita?

 

[Basil]

I don't think I can accept that the PS3 has actually outsold the 360... Can someone do me some straw grasping shipping analyses to muddy the waters a bit or something?

 

[michaelius]

I don't think I can accept that the PS3 has actually outsold the 360... Can someone do me some straw grasping shipping analyses to muddy the waters a bit or something?

You can use Shreddinger cat theory where it actually outshiped or not at the same time

Still i think they are a tiny bit behind because they would probably do a PR message about outshipping xbox.

 

[user_nat]

Something doesn't add up here..

So this was posted on page two:

GAME:

Sales decreased 12.2% year-on-year (a 15% decrease on a constant currency basis) to 707.1 billion yen (7,522
million U.S. dollars). Sales to external customers decreased 22.5% year-on-year. This significant decrease was
primarily due to a decrease in unit sales of PlayStation®3 (“PS3&#8221 hardware and PSP® (PlayStation Portable)
(“PSP&#8221 hardware and software, as well as PlayStation®Vita (“PS Vita&#8221 hardware, partially offset by the favorable
impact of foreign exchange rates.
Operating income decreased 27.6 billion yen year-on-year to 1.7 billion yen (18 million U.S. dollars). This
significant decrease was primarily due to the above-mentioned decrease in sales of PSP hardware and software as
well as the impact of a strategic price reduction for the PS Vita, enacted in Japan in February 2013

But this year they shipped 3.4m PS2/3s and last year they shipped 1.9m PS3s.
So if the PS3 is down YoY, does that mean the PS2 sold over 1.5m consoles..?

Spoiler

edit: or I'm wrong as below points out

 

[NateDrake]

I don't think I can accept that the PS3 has actually outsold the 360... Can someone do me some straw grasping shipping analyses to muddy the waters a bit or something?

We know 360 dominates North America, so PS3 must be smoking 360 sales in Europe. Japan is a given.

 

[shinra-bansho]

No, they just don't want to declare the profits and then have to declare a loss again should the yen strengthen to previous levels if the BoJ lets up on the new monetary policy.

It's the prudent thing to do. Good treasury management from Sony. Unlike other Japanese companies, Sony has managed to pull out a net profit without an FX gain. That's something Kaz should be lauded for. Panasonic and others will show a net profit on the back of FX gains, the business will lose money though.

Ah I see. I guess it makes sense to not have your books so dependent on the exchange rate fluctuating.

Something doesn't add up here..

So this was posted on page two:

But this year they shipped 3.4m PS2/3s and last year they shipped 1.9m PS3s.
So if the PS3 is down YoY, does that mean the PS2 sold over 1.5m consoles..?

Spoiler

or that unlinked quote is wrong

Unit sales are down for the year, not necessarily for that quarter. It's really impossible to tell how many PS2/PS3 were sold in a given quarter from that. The only thing I think it lets us know is that PS2 shipments were at least 2.6M for the year.

 

[pieatorium]

Something doesn't add up here..

So this was posted on page two:


But this year they shipped 3.4m PS2/3s and last year they shipped 1.9m PS3s.
So if the PS3 is down YoY, does that mean the PS2 sold over 1.5m consoles..?

Spoiler

or that unlinked quote is wrong

your mixin quarter and year.

 

[RamzaIsCool]

I don't think I can accept that the PS3 has actually outsold the 360... Can someone do me some straw grasping shipping analyses to muddy the waters a bit or something?

360 is at 77.2m, PS3 is at (80.4m - PS2). So it all depends if the PS2 managed to ship more then 3.2m units. In FY11 it managed to do 4.1m, but it was declining rapidly. So taking in account the whole trend I am 99% sure that the PS3 finally is past the 360. lol who is making the thread?

 

[electroplankton]

sega only shipped a reported 2.8m sega genesis consoles to north america between 1989 and 1991. during the first year, shipments were only at 1.2m, which isn't that far removed from where the vita was after its first year. in japan, they only shipped 400k in the first year.

the first-party support was neat, but it didn't turn heads until the system was three years old and sonic the hedgehog was released. i'm not sure about the state of third-parties on the system in its formative years.

as for the playstation, it sold 1.5m in the us in its first 14 months. again, not too different from how the vita started. i know the third-party support was initially better, but the bulk of what made the system super popular didn't start arriving until 1997, when the console had a us install base of about 2.9m.

When Sega Genesis was released, the market was way smaller than now. You cannot compare sales of a Sega platform in late-1980s, with a Sony platform in 2012. Market changed, and became way bigger.

 

[user_nat]

Unit sales are down for the year, not necessarily for that quarter. It's really impossible to tell how many PS2/PS3 were sold in a given quarter from that. The only thing I think it lets us know is that PS2 shipments were at least 2.6M for the year.

Ah right. Completely missed that they were talking about years.

 

[AOC83]

sega only shipped a reported 2.8m sega genesis consoles to north america between 1989 and 1991. during the first year, shipments were only at 1.2m, which isn't that far removed from where the vita was after its first year. in japan, they only shipped 400k in the first year.

the first-party support was neat, but it didn't turn heads until the system was three years old and sonic the hedgehog was released. i'm not sure about the state of third-parties on the system in its formative years.

as for the playstation, it sold 1.5m in the us in its first 14 months. again, not too different from how the vita started. i know the third-party support was initially better, but the bulk of what made the system super popular didn't start arriving until 1997, when the console had a us install base of about 2.9m.

And once again you are ignoring the core problem: Noone, absolutely noone is developing games that could turn anything around. All the systems you mentioned had broad support among developers, be it first or third party. And these developers started making software years before the "turnaround" of the platforms.

Nobody is working on anything major for the Vita at this point.

And on top of that you are only comparing numbers from selected territorries(Mega Drive was huge in the UK and the PSX in whole Europe) and in a completely different context. The video gaming business has grown vastly since the early nineties.

 

[DarkMehm]

i doubt the psp will reach the gba. the system's selling less than 10k a month in the us, and less than 35k a month in japan. even if europe sold what the us and japan did combined, the system would barely make a million in sales for the year.

as far as the psp selling software, it actually did have a pretty normal ltd for a handheld (which is usually around 4... the ds's attach rate was 6:1, and that itself is kinda godly considering how many systems were sold).

According to Nintendo PSP sells 250k quarterly in Europe. And that's just 13 countries of Europe. Sony's biggest strength is selling systems in lesser developed countries. They have huge presences in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Russia, Asia and South America. These regions were the biggest reason why the PS2 kept going and going, not because of NA or Western Europe. Shipping another 1.5-2 million PSPs should be easy.

 

[AniHawk]

According to Nintendo PSP sells 250k quarterly in Europe. And that's just 13 countries of Europe. Sony's biggest strength is selling systems in lesser developed countries. They have huge presences in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Russia, Asia and South America. These regions were the biggest reason why the PS2 kept going and going, not because of NA or Western Europe. Shipping another 1.5-2 million PSPs should be easy.

ah, i forgot about those other regions. good point.

And once again you are ignoring the core problem: Noone, absolutely noone is developing games that could turn anything around. All the systems you mentioned had broad support among developers, be it first or third party. And these developers started making software years before the "turnaround" of the platforms.

Nobody is working on anything major for the Vita at this point.

And on top of that you are only comparing numbers from selected territorries(Mega Drive was huge in the UK and the PSX in whole Europe) and in a completely different context. The video gaming business has grown vastly since the early nineties.

i'm only posting numbers from what i was able to find. as far as software goes, we don't know what exactly could turn things around, because those really bighuge games tend to come out of nowhere. keep in mind the ds was floundering in all major regions until nintendogs came out, and elevated sales to 'normal' in every region it released. i don't think that was expected to turn into a 20m seller. i don't think rockstar expected the third grand theft auto to make the sandbox genre the genre for an entire generation.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I don't think I can accept that the PS3 has actually outsold the 360... Can someone do me some straw grasping shipping analyses to muddy the waters a bit or something?

Well with constant PS2 shipments you could say 360 is still in the lead, but that seems unlikely.

I just ran some numbers, I think 3m PS2 sales is a reasonable guess based on some limited sell through data I can see.

 

[Bruno MB]

Current PSP LTD hardware sales at the very least are over 79 million units.

Considering that in 2012 PSP sold (not shipped) around 2.7 million units between Europe and Japan, I would say PSP won't have any trouble outselling GBA. It just needs 1 million from Japan, and another 1 million from Europe.

 

[Panajev2001a]

Holy shit 20 million to reach the Wii?

How many PS2's Sony sold after the PS3 launched?

They are just now making PS3s officially available on some developing countries like Brazil.

It would be hilarious if the PS3 ended this generation on the first place.

It would be interesting to say the least .

 

[Canis lupus]

I don't think I can accept that the PS3 has actually outsold the 360... Can someone do me some straw grasping shipping analyses to muddy the waters a bit or something?

Like Ramza said PS3 is at 80.2M minus PS2 sales, it all depends how much PS2 shipped in the last 2 quarters. PS3 was at 70M at november 4 last year. Last FY PS2 shipped 1.5M in those 2 quarters.

edit: nah wait, we assumed 70M was before the oct-dec quarter started, the number is actually 1 month into the q.

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Didn't Sony just announce 3 new games for PS Vita. Guaranteed, they are not exclusive to the platform and are more of small indie titles but it shows that they are still supporting VITA.

Also they are already planning on Cross-Buy for VITA/PS3/PS4

This also means we can expect more Cross-Buy titles for VITA/PS4 in the future.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Ah I see. I guess it makes sense to not have your books so dependent on the exchange rate fluctuating.

Eventually they will declare the gain, but not until Sony's treasury are 100% sure that the yen won't strengthen to previous levels again.

I think what they would like to do is get the electronics company to a break even point this year and declare the FX gains, then for 2014/15 they will present a more bullish forecast. Obviously depending on how well the BoJ's campaign is going.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

PS3 having non proprietary hard drives, Blu tooth, and usb slots was awesome. But tons of people bought Xbox overpriced hard drives, charge and play kits, and wifi adapters. Unfortunately for consumers, Sony learned a lot from Microsoft this gen.

Well to be fair I think it was MS that learned from Sony and the PS2, remember those memory cards? One thing I think they learned from MS however was the power of the subscription.

Decent numbers for Sony though and I, as always, appreciate Financial-GAF's analysis.