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Star Wars: The Old Republic [Releasing Date: Dec 20 NA/EU - NDA Lifted]

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Woorloog

Banned
flyinpiranha said:
For those in the beta, how's the music in the game? Are we talking epic score or added tavern band song?
NDA. I doubt they tell... it seems that GAFers who are in the beta try to follow NDA. Especially since someone from BW watches the thread. Apparently.
Oh and in case that someone sees this, can we please get an update about the music some friday.
 
Woorloog said:
NDA. I doubt they tell... it seems that GAFers who are in the beta try to follow NDA. Especially since someone from BW watches the thread. Apparently.
Oh and in case that someone sees this, can we please get an update about the music some friday.

It would be great to get some focus on it, but as the music is one of the most iconic parts of Star Wars, I'm guessing they'll save that as a big hype moment close to launch.

Prove me wrong, Friday Update! :D
 
Fonds said:
It's impossible to think that Bioware can do what Blizzard did overnight. It took Blizzard about 4-5 years to get the amount of players that they got to, with numbers now decreasing.

A year after it's release in NA and half a year after it's release in EU WoW had 1.5 million subs. And that was a massive succes. Nobody saw that coming.

A game like this needs time to attract players. What us hardcore MMO gamers and frequenters of forums sometimes tend to forget is that we make up about 20% of the gaming population for MMO's. Others will be dragged in by word of mouth, because their bigger brother/sister plays it or because they want to play with their significant others.

If Bioware can reach and hold 500k to 1 million subs for a year they won't have topped blizzard in the initial launch phase, but they certainly aren't headed in a wrong direction.
If it's a healthy MMO they have the posibility to grow for a couple of years. Whereas the behemoth that is WoW is losing subs at the moment.

I'm no gaming economist but I'm not sure which is a more healthy product. The one that is slowly gaining subs, or the one that is huge but is steadily losing subs.


Now this is all ofcourse written under the impression that TOR will be a healthy MMO at launch and will have the ability to drag people into it in the long run.
/rant over

The thing is, even poor MMOs sell pretty well. I expect SW:TOR to sell 2 million easily in the first couple months. How many of those purchasers turn into subscribers largely depends on the quality of the game, but still, 2 million units sold. I think that should cover the investment. A MMO only needs 100-150k subscribers to be 'healthy'. I'm expecting SW:TOR to do better, but it doesn't have to be WOW. If it can retain 350k subscribers I would consider it a success.
 

Woorloog

Banned
I watched the video... i can't remember watching it before. I liked it a lot. Some new pieces certainly sounded Star Wars. Like KOTOR's music did.

Oh and any idea how long TOR's been under development? 3 years from announcement to launch, roughly, i guess it's been under development at least a couple of years before that. So 5+years?
 

Fonds

Member
TheRagnCajun said:
The thing is, even poor MMOs sell pretty well. I expect SW:TOR to sell 2 million easily in the first couple months. How many of those purchasers turn into subscribers largely depends on the quality of the game, but still, 2 million units sold. I think that should cover the investment. A MMO only needs 100-150k subscribers to be 'healthy'. I'm expecting SW:TOR to do better, but it doesn't have to be WOW. If it can retain 350k subscribers I would consider it a success.

I'm not thinking it will be WoW either. I do however think that TOR will do pretty good and top 500k subscribers after a year.
The thing with poor MMO's it that they pull players in and can't keep them in. The sales figures from those games don't represent the succes of the product. The only thing that shows if an mmo did good or not, is if it's still around a few years down the line with more than 1 server up.

The MMO is a relatively young genry in the gaming industry. When WoW came out it became the first commercial and wellknown MMO. Sure we had EQ and others before that but it wasn't played by a hundreth of the players that played WoW eventually.
With WoW growing as huge as it did, it also attracted a lot of people to the MMO genre and acquainted them with the subscription model. As paying for a game you already bought was unheard of before that for most gamers.
I think that as the genre matures there will be room for more publishers on the market. People are going to want different things from MMO's, just like people want different things from shooters. Some people like gears, other people like Halo. Some like Counter strike and others want Team Fortress.

The MMO community just needed WoW to get kickstarted. It's just a matter of time before other MMOs will get a firm grab on the market. That market will be more evenly spread though, I don't think we'll see another behemoth like WoW again.

With games like TOR, Guildwars 2, TERA, and Archeage coming out I hope we're going in the right direction with that shift.
-Will report back in a year or 2 and hope I was right :p
 

bjaelke

Member
Woorloog said:
I watched the video... i can't remember watching it before. I liked it a lot. Some new pieces certainly sounded Star Wars. Like KOTOR's music did.

Oh and any idea how long TOR's been under development? 3 years from announcement to launch, roughly, i guess it's been under development at least a couple of years before that. So 5+years?
Yes, some of the writers started more than five years ago. That's not the same as saying the game has been in full development for that long though. I'm pretty sure that they didn't ramp up the number of writers until just before the announcement.
 

water_wendi

Water is not wet!
Garryk said:
Probably not that much, they haven't even launched Cataclysm in China. I bet by the end of this expansion they will be under 10 million subs though.
Well once they launch Cata thats another 10% subscriber loss right there.

Fonds said:
I'm not thinking it will be WoW either. I do however think that TOR will do pretty good and top 500k subscribers after a year.
500k? If thats all it can muster after 1 year it will be shut down. They need 1 million subs to just break even.
 

syoaran

Member
Fonds said:
It's impossible to think that Bioware can do what Blizzard did overnight. It took Blizzard about 4-5 years to get the amount of players that they got to, with numbers now decreasing.

A year after it's release in NA and half a year after it's release in EU WoW had 1.5 million subs. And that was a massive succes. Nobody saw that coming.

A game like this needs time to attract players. What us hardcore MMO gamers and frequenters of forums sometimes tend to forget is that we make up about 20% of the gaming population for MMO's. Others will be dragged in by word of mouth, because their bigger brother/sister plays it or because they want to play with their significant others.

If Bioware can reach and hold 500k to 1 million subs for a year they won't have topped blizzard in the initial launch phase, but they certainly aren't headed in a wrong direction.
If it's a healthy MMO they have the posibility to grow for a couple of years. Whereas the behemoth that is WoW is losing subs at the moment.

I'm no gaming economist but I'm not sure which is a more healthy product. The one that is slowly gaining subs, or the one that is huge but is steadily losing subs.


Now this is all ofcourse written under the impression that TOR will be a healthy MMO at launch and will have the ability to drag people into it in the long run.
/rant over

If your just considering a western update, than I agree with your assessment. But I do believe that they will have a global launch within a year.

Remember that Aion currently has 4million active subs (4.5mil last year)
 

Blackface

Banned
syoaran said:
Please show me a link for this, as its the first I've heard of this. Why would they even do that? As for NA... Well no. Again, I'm not really sure where you get your facts from, but 2008 had 2.8million day1 retail sales for WOTLK, so it doesnt really help your argument.



D3 is not an MMO, so its not directly impacting that market. It is indirectly affecting it because Blizzard fans will eat into the new experience, and it offers far more content for PvE players to enjoy over SCII.



Movers and shakers on a server. Players who run guilds, or players who play on a competitive level looking for something fresh. End game WoW was .5% of the game at Vanilla, that changed substantially with LFG 5mans and 10man raiding.



Considering that no announcement of speculation will ever be made by EA or Bioware, of course its made up. Its based on the logical assumption that for TOR to top WoW, it would have to at least emulate its success based on a five year plan. That requires an insane amount of people to be interested in the game within the first year, because you quite literally require the gaming and mainstream press to write "top's WoW's sales" for it generate the word of mouth it needs.

EA have stated that 500k subs are what they need to turn a profit. No company post 2008 has stated, "X product is a WoW beater" because its hubris and plays terribly in the presses. But you can't ignore the fact that EA have been gearing this MMO to take the controlling share of the market, and at least hold it until Titan arrives. For them to do this, they need millions of subs. End of.

Would EA like this game to kill WoW? Yes. Do they expect it to kill WoW? No. Anyone who has a clue about MMO's knows WoW was an anomaly. It appealed to all markets, and became huge for both being casual friendly, and because of word of mouth. There will not be another subscription based MMO to grab 12 million concurrent players. At least not until a hyper-casual, social networking integrated style MMO hits the market.

You also have to understand how those 11.5 million subscribers were counted. They counted double accounts, inactive accounts people kept paying for, and lumped all types of pricing models together, and called them all "subscribers".

What the above poster said about Asia is correct (http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=24657). Half of WoW's subscribers are from Asia, but their pricing model is much different. They buy game time cards and pay almost one third that of Americans, and still get labeled as subscribers. Even though they are not technically subscribed to anything.

Another reason SWTOR won't hit WoW numbers is because of the localization. For each country they decide to launch the game in that doesn't speak English, they need 16 new voice actors. They need to pay for studio time, sound engineering and all the various things that cost boatloads of money. So, naturally, at least at first, SWTOR won't be in as many countries.

I think SWTOR will probably hold over a million subscribers for quite a while. Whether it goes up or down after the first year is anyone's guess. It all comes down to end-game, and even beta testers have not experienced that yet.
 

Blackface

Banned
syoaran said:
If your just considering a western update, than I agree with your assessment. But I do believe that they will have a global launch within a year.

Remember that Aion currently has 4million active subs (4.5mil last year)

This is not true.

http://www.aionsource.com/topic/122345-aion-official-numbers/?

current active players in Aion is 2.5 million, and that is not SUBSCRIBERS. That is simply people who have played the game and made an account. Virtually all of those now being Korean/Asian, using different types of monetary models.
 

bjaelke

Member
Blackface said:
Another reason SWTOR won't hit WoW numbers is because of the localization. For each country they decide to launch the game in that doesn't speak English, they need 16 new voice actors. They need to pay for studio time, sound engineering and all the various things that cost boatloads of money. So, naturally, at least at first, SWTOR won't be in as many countries.
This is my main "concern" as well. It still puzzles me, why they left out a Spanish/Portuguese launch version. EA are already in with both legs, so the potential market they could reach with another localization, seems economically attractive. They must have done some market surveys and measured the effects of the Star Wars brand.
 

syoaran

Member
Blackface said:
This is not true.

http://www.aionsource.com/topic/122345-aion-official-numbers/?

current active players in Aion is 2.5 million, and that is not SUBSCRIBERS. That is simply people who have played the game and made an account. Virtually all of those now being Korean/Asian, using different types of monetary models.

Your right, I misread the Korean article. 4.5million is the total sub's they have had to date (paying), not continous. And thanks for the link, it makes sense as to revenue/subs that any loss in the US market would be dire.

As for localisation, thats a valid concern. But I hope Bioware and EA recognise this and at the very least, a heavy subtitle package is being rolled out across EFIGS at launch. I presumed with community moderators of various european languages being hired, that localised translations at launch was a given.
 

Yaska

Member
water_wendi said:
Well once they launch Cata thats another 10% subscriber loss right there.


500k? If thats all it can muster after 1 year it will be shut down. They need 1 million subs to just break even.
I doubt it'll have 1 million subs during first year constantly. These "needs 1 million" numbers usually aren't accurate anw. But lets take a look. The game's developing was around 100 million, righty? Lets say the game would have 1 million subs. Around 600k in NA and 400k in EU.
A Monthly revenue from US would be around $9 million and from EU it would be 7,264 million dollars ( counted the 15% VAT in this.). So we have just from subscriptions 16,264 million USD a month. So in 12 months with these amounts they would get around 195 millions. So they wouldn't "just break even". So with just 500k subscriptions they would easily break even in one year. Add to that possible collector's edition and retail version boxsales and Origin sales (where all the profit goes to EA instead just part), and they will do just fine with around 400k-500k subscribers.

Sure I would like to see this game have 1 million players, because that would mean more funding for the add-ons. Just trying to point out that the 1 million players count much more than one would think.
 

Kintaro

Worships the porcelain goddess
water_wendi said:
500k? If thats all it can muster after 1 year it will be shut down. They need 1 million subs to just break even.

Sigh.

http://www.gamespy.com/articles/114/1147365p1.html

Star Wars: The Old Republic is "incurring significant development costs" Electronic Arts confirmed last night in its quarterly conference call. But the rumored $300 million price tag is ridiculous, the publisher's executives insist, and the game will be "substantially profitable" with 500,000 subscribers.

After reporting a steep loss for the fiscal quarter yesterday, but with adjusted earnings that beat Wall Street projections, Electronic Arts fielded questions during its conference call, and a number of those questions centered on the BioWare-developed Star Wars MMO, The Old Republic.

On when the game will finally ship, EA CFO Eric Brown said SWTOR "is expected to ship in calendar 2011, but after the close of [fiscal year] 2011." EA's fiscal fourth quarter for 2011 closes on March 31. That means the targeted released window is sometime between April 1 and December 31.

On the MMO's cost, EA CEO John Riccitiello refused to provide specifics, but he did say the investment is "substantially less" than the rumored $300 million cost. Riccitiello also commented on analyst projections that SWTOR will need at least 2 million subscribers to be profitable.

"At half a million subscribers, the game is substantially profitable, but it's not the sort of thing we would write home about," Riccitiello said. "Anything north of one million subscribers is a very profitable business."

But that's nowhere near Activision-Blizzard's market leader, World of Warcraft, and its 12 million subs. Does that mean SWTOR shouldn't be considered a WoW challenger?

"It's our view that we can be very successful without fundamentally challenging the market leader because we think we'll probably hit the smaller competitors harder when we get out there," Riccitiello said, before adding: "Of course, we have no particular ambition to be a distant number two. Our ambitions are higher than that, but we throttle back a little bit relative to our financial projections."
 

Blackface

Banned
Yaska said:
I doubt it'll have 1 million subs during first year constantly. These "needs 1 million" numbers usually aren't accurate anw. But lets take a look. The game's developing was around 100 million, righty? Lets say the game would have 1 million subs. Around 600k in NA and 400k in EU.
A Monthly revenue from US would be around $9 million and from EU it would be 7,264 million dollars ( counted the 15% VAT in this.). So we have just from subscriptions 16,264 million USD a month. So in 12 months with these amounts they would get around 195 millions. So they wouldn't "just break even". So with just 500k subscriptions they would easily break even in one year. Add to that possible collector's edition and retail version boxsales and Origin sales (where all the profit goes to EA instead just part), and they will do just fine with around 400k-500k subscribers.

Sure I would like to see this game have 1 million players, because that would mean more funding for the add-ons. Just trying to point out that the 1 million players count much more than one would think.

Trust me when I say, the game cost significantly more then 100 million to develop. They need 500k subs to be LONG-TERM profitable. They are without a doubt aiming for a million +.
 

Vinci

Danish
Blackface said:
Trust me when I say, the game cost significantly more then 100 million to develop. They need 500k subs to be LONG-TERM profitable. They are without a doubt aiming for a million +.

If Blizzard is right, absolutely it cost more than that. Their comment was that it would take something like 300 million to make something even close to competing with WoW, IIRC.
 
Blackface said:
Trust me when I say, the game cost significantly more then 100 million to develop. They need 500k subs to be LONG-TERM profitable. They are without a doubt aiming for a million +.

All MMOs are long term investments, obviously the 500k number is for continual development.

Lot of the games development is going to be recouped with initial sales, especially this game should do several million no problem when lower key franchises like Warhammer and Conan were able to do 1+ million sales in the first couple months. Games like RIFT supposedly cost more than 50 mil to develop and they are around 600k subs apparently and they are saying they are doing great, and the game hasn't even sold 1 mil copies yet.

Return on investment should not be hard to achieve, the biggest factor the subber base will have is on the games continual and future support which is what are always cut to keep a game profitable. Game is not also going to just die off even if it doesn't meet expectations somehow, the investment they put in wont let them just give up on it.
 
Fonds said:
I'm not thinking it will be WoW either. I do however think that TOR will do pretty good and top 500k subscribers after a year.
The thing with poor MMO's it that they pull players in and can't keep them in. The sales figures from those games don't represent the succes of the product. The only thing that shows if an mmo did good or not, is if it's still around a few years down the line with more than 1 server up.
:p

Sales figures do count when you're charging full price for the game. Remember that 2 million units sold is a good number by any other standard, it just depends on how much the game costed I suppose. I wouldn't have thought it would be much more than 100mill including marketing.
 

Mahoubuta

Neo Member
One thing that has me wondering is what impact the voice acting will have on future content. I mean, Blizzard seems happy pumping out 2-3 significant content patches a year. If Bioware were to to try to match that, they'd need to create new Flashpoints, quests, etc, and a chunk of that content will require newly scripted and recorded VA work.

If I'm not wrong, if each class and gender have their own special VA, that means that for a cross-faction quest/Flashpoint they'd need to record dialogue with up to 16 actors, not including the requisite NPCs. That's a lot of work for content that players will likely burn through in no time.

I really wonder if they will be able keep up with the demand for new content (then again, who can?) or if the majority of new content will be held back for the inevitable yearly expansions?
 

Giolon

Member
Mahoubuta said:
One thing that has me wondering is what impact the voice acting will have on future content. I mean, Blizzard seems happy pumping out 2-3 significant content patches a year. If Bioware were to to try to match that, they'd need to create new Flashpoints, quests, etc, and a chunk of that content will require newly scripted and recorded VA work.

If I'm not wrong, if each class and gender have their own special VA, that means that for a cross-faction quest/Flashpoint they'd need to record dialogue with up to 16 actors, not including the requisite NPCs. That's a lot of work for content that players will likely burn through in no time.

I really wonder if they will be able keep up with the demand for new content (then again, who can?) or if the majority of new content will be held back for the inevitable yearly expansions?

I have to imagine that adding new classes to the game will be prohibitively expensive for just that reason. Not just for the VA for the classes themselves, but the class quests, the class's companions and all quest givers who say something related to the player's class.

Even though they've got only "4" classes, the Advanced Classes make it more like 8 in actuality. I'm not sure what additional classes beyond those they would add.
 

grrarg

Neo Member
I've been wondering about that too. Has Bioware said anything specific about their post-launch plans? Blizzard is criticized for their slow patch cycle. Can Bioware be faster, given all the extra effort required to voice everything?
 
Mahoubuta said:
One thing that has me wondering is what impact the voice acting will have on future content. I mean, Blizzard seems happy pumping out 2-3 significant content patches a year. If Bioware were to to try to match that, they'd need to create new Flashpoints, quests, etc, and a chunk of that content will require newly scripted and recorded VA work.

If I'm not wrong, if each class and gender have their own special VA, that means that for a cross-faction quest/Flashpoint they'd need to record dialogue with up to 16 actors, not including the requisite NPCs. That's a lot of work for content that players will likely burn through in no time.

I really wonder if they will be able keep up with the demand for new content (then again, who can?) or if the majority of new content will be held back for the inevitable yearly expansions?

They could do it, but it's all going to come down to how successful the game is to be able to support such things. It's not just VA work, but having to craft cutscenes for all the content along with stuff for the various different classes and potentially companions who would potentially need new dialogue.

I could imagine they would do like other MMOs have done and already have lot of extra content already recorded and in the works for post launch content updates.
 
How do companions work when you play with other players who have the same companion(s)? Do their companions turn generic or change to a different name or something just on your screen?
 

Piecake

Member
BattleMonkey said:
They could do it, but it's all going to come down to how successful the game is to be able to support such things. It's not just VA work, but having to craft cutscenes for all the content along with stuff for the various different classes and potentially companions who would potentially need new dialogue.

I could imagine they would do like other MMOs have done and already have lot of extra content already recorded and in the works for post launch content updates.

Well, they could just pull a blizzard and make their new class a 'hero' class and start him at level 50 or whatever. That would save a ton of money because you wouldnt have to create 200 hours worth of previous content and probably fiddle with all of your existing cutscenes and dialogue to include that class.

Well, a way to do it that might make more sense story wise is that they introduce a new class/new race in the next expansion that you meet for the first time on a newly introduced world. So it would make sense storywise for you to have to play your class up to that point to see that world/race/class. After you get there, youd have access to it. It wouldnt be a 'hero' class, just a newly discovered one.
 

Rapture

Member
Moaradin said:
There was a update about the music a while ago. It's pretty nice I think.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYw_alO99G8

the people who make music for games always astound me. They look at a picture and from that have to make music, when my head works completely opposite, the best work i do only appears in my head when i am listening to music. i can't even comprehend trying to do it backwards.

also: all this financial talk about (X)subscribers+(Y)initial purchasers-(Z)development costs is making my head hurt!
 

bjaelke

Member
An enterprising young Bounty Hunter conducts business with Nemro the Hutt, a powerful and influential crime lord on the foul world of Hutta.
45ci9.jpg
 
Keiician said:
I think it wasn't posted before - lightsaber crafting video.


That looked good, i still cant help but think these set pieces would play better offline, Instead of that epic moment with the player character walking up some steps, building the first lightsaber in solitary and then using the newly built creation to battle, your going to have the area flooded with people dancing, running around like prats. sitting all over the place and constant "£5 for 500 credits" "get your spacebux here" ect

Maybe not having played the beta is tinting my view but honestly i think an experience with this much emphasis on story cant be fully realised in a mmo environment.
 

Moaradin

Member
StalkerUKCG said:
That looked good, i still cant help but think these set pieces would play better offline, Instead of that epic moment with the player character walking up some steps, building the first lightsaber in solitary and then using the newly built creation to battle, your going to have the area flooded with people dancing, running around like prats. sitting all over the place and constant "£5 for 500 credits" "get your spacebux here" ect

Maybe not having played the beta is tinting my view but honestly i think an experience with this much emphasis on story cant be fully realised in a mmo environment.

Key moments in your class story is phased, so nobody will be in your phase unless you invite them. Crafting your lightsaber is probably one of those key moments.
 

Yaska

Member
Woorloog said:
Forced perspective... The twi'lek looks nice...
Is it just me or is that the same golden bikini princess Leia had in RotJ? If yes, we will have loads of Leia clones come launch if those bikinis are usable by pcs...
I think I likes....
 
CzarTim said:
I guarentee you the major voice talent are under contract to come back when they want to add new content.

Agreed.

As for adding content, there's deffinately a dilemma there. Its going to be a lot of work just to add one class. It really depends on how many subscribers they get. Ideally, what I'd like to see is have all the classes branch off once more, with an extended level cap. It would be a paid expansion and you would need probably 1million+ subscribers to do it.

If the money isn't there, perhaps they'll do a hero class type thing.
 

Woorloog

Banned
Dance In My Blood said:
All the ERPers are going to leave WoW for this game at least.
Teen rated game... I wonder what sort of internet backlash there will be... i mean WoW caused one.
If there will be one, i hope it won't cause draconian chat moderation.
 

Yaska

Member
Woorloog said:
Teen rated game... I wonder what sort of internet backlash there will be... i mean WoW caused one.
If there will be one, i hope it won't cause draconian chat moderation.
Well they could go for the road some mmos take with the chat moderation. Have it optional. Besides there's always ways to bypass chat moderations (steam overlay, xfire, IRC clients).
 

dimb

Bjergsen is the greatest midlane in the world
Woorloog said:
Teen rated game... I wonder what sort of internet backlash there will be... i mean WoW caused one.
If there will be one, i hope it won't cause draconian chat moderation.
There wasn't really an actual backlash in WoW, more of a perceived one.

Blizzard essentially got one complaint like 5 years after the game came out and upped moderation for about a week. This made news and Blizzard looked like a good guy or something so they walked away and everyone went back to /sitting on each others faces in Goldshire.
 
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