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[I collect VHS tapes]

Nobody forces you to buy the bundle, you can buy the console without Mario Kart. If you buy the bundle is because you want to the game too for extra $50 -or whatever it costs-, so it's a game sale.

I want to add that the bundle was actually more difficult to get, further showing that people went out of their way and consciously decided to buy the version with Mario kart

Even when the standalone console recently started becoming more available, the bundle was still more difficult to get

 

[Robb]

Switch 2 is a beast!

 

[diffusionx]

Nobody forces you to buy the bundle, you can buy the console without Mario Kart. If you buy the bundle is because you want to the game too for extra $50 -or whatever it costs-, so it's a game sale.

I actually wanted to get the Switch 2 by itself and save the $50 because MKW seems mid but that was the invite that was sent to me.

I just got it in the mail and haven't set it up yet. But I got DK Banana with it which I care much more about. .

 

[Baemono]

I wouldn't call Emma Watson a beast though

 

[BlackTron]

The only other new game was what? Fast Fusion? People spend more money on new games than old ones, I'm not sure how deep we need to think for an explanation. Is it that nobody buys third party on Nintendo or is it that Nintendo is the only one with a new title that hasn't been steam saled 18 times asking $70?

 

[yurinka]

Nintendo produced more bundles than standalone, so that's not entirely accurate.

Yes, totally it's accurate. Nobody forces you to buy anything. As an example, Switch 2 is the first Nintendo portable that I decided to don't buy at launch since the GBA (I also have GB and GBC but didn't get them at launch).

In this case, you can buy the console with or without bundled game, obviously paying an extra for the bundle. If you decide to buy the bundle, that counts as game sale and this is why Nintendo counted as such.

 

[Deerock71]

Yes, totally it's accurate. Nobody forces you to buy anything. As an example, Switch 2 is the first Nintendo portable that I decided to don't buy at launch since the GBA (I also have GB and GBC but didn't get them at launch).

In this case, you can buy the console with or without bundled game, obviously paying an extra for the bundle. If you decide to buy the bundle, that counts as game sale and this is why Nintendo counted as such.

Nintendo customer service:

 

[daxgame]

Nobody forces you to buy the bundle, you can buy the console without Mario Kart. If you buy the bundle is because you want to the game too for extra $50 -or whatever it costs-, so it's a game sale.

It isn't the case where all devices include a free copy as happened with Astro Bot or (outside Japan) with Wii Sports.

The chart isn't just credible: it's factual and objective oficial data.

Yes, but the context is that Mario Kart is offered at a strong discount with the Bundle. This is the reality.

I'm sure third parties are terrified about people picking up the bundle with mario kart for $50, and people not picking the standalone S2... lol.

 

[Woopah]

Nobody forces you to buy the bundle, you can buy the console without Mario Kart. If you buy the bundle is because you want to the game too for extra $50 -or whatever it costs-, so it's a game sale.

It isn't the case where all devices include a free copy as happened with Astro Bot or (outside Japan) with Wii Sports.

The chart isn't just credible: it's factual and objective oficial data.


Yes, even if the red part of the graph includes 1st party stuff, the split seen in the graph is pretty similar to the 1st party vs 3rd party split seen in Switch 1.

Here we can see the Switch 1 + Switch 2 split for the quarter of the MKW chart (Q1 FY26), and the case for the previous year where it was Switch 1 only, with Nintendo saving big seller releases for Switch 2:

Pretty similar.

You're still comparing two different things.

Your pie chart is total unit sales. Those %s are about Nintendo's own revenue (third party revenue isn't shown).

In FY25, 73% of that revenue went to Nintendo. But the other 27% also went to Nintendo.

The only other new game was what? Fast Fusion? People spend more money on new games than old ones, I'm not sure how deep we need to think for an explanation. Is it that nobody buys third party on Nintendo or is it that Nintendo is the only one with a new title that hasn't been steam saled 18 times asking $70?

It all depends on the level of third party support as seen with Switch.

When third party support was weak, Nintendo dominated unit sales. When third parties improved support, the split was much more balanced.

 

[Gambit2483]

MKW was bundled with the system. MKW is destined to have incredibly high attach rate like games such as Mario Bros 1 and Wii Sports. In order for this not to happen, people would have to be actively avoiding MKW so badly that they would rather wait to get a Switch 2 than buy the one on the shelf that includes the game. High sales of MKW=high sales of hardware, which is exactly what third parties need to know before jumping in.

Exactly. There's a reason they're called "system sellers". It's no different than with BOTW and Switch 1.Sony and MS used to have them too...

Also, Publishers and Nintendo are going to have to face the harsh fact that the negative reaction to game-key cards, increased game prices and lack of sufficient storage is absolutely going to play a role in the potential slowdown of software sales.

 

[ItsGreat]

Amazing achievement. So sad about the 3rd party games game key card situation, it otherwise would be a perfect console. It's so weird how they fucked that up so much given how their userbase is the most physical game oriented by far, i had high trust in them in that regard if you see my previous posts on physical games related threads previous to the Switch 2 announcement.

What is your solution for 100GB sized games that need to shove data into the machine at high speed?

 

[BlackTron]

What is your solution for 100GB sized games that need to shove data into the machine at high speed?

It's a bigger issue for 20GB games I think.

 

[ItsGreat]

It's a bigger issue for 20GB games I think.

Ah, well I have a solution for that. Sell the games on the regular Switch cards - but make it clear that you need to transfer the whole game onto the Switch 2 internal storage before playing. (For the super loading speed malarkey)

 

[Ultra Donny]

So beating xbox series combined with ps 5 in two years?

 

[BlackTron]

Ah, well I have a solution for that. Sell the games on the regular Switch cards - but make it clear that you need to transfer the whole game onto the Switch 2 internal storage before playing. (For the super loading speed malarkey)

Basically optical discs. Better publishing option than nothing.

 

[LordOcidax]

So beating xbox series combined with ps 5 in two years?

No

 

[Baemono]

So beating xbox series combined with ps 5 in two years?

They're not gonna sell 100 million in 2 years

 

[yurinka]

You're still comparing two different things.

Your pie chart is total unit sales. Those %s are about Nintendo's own revenue (third party revenue isn't shown).

In FY25, 73% of that revenue went to Nintendo. But the other 27% also went to Nintendo.

The only other new game was what? Fast Fusion? People spend more money on new games than old ones, I'm not sure how deep we need to think for an explanation. Is it that nobody buys third party on Nintendo or is it that Nintendo is the only one with a new title that hasn't been steam saled 18 times asking $70?

It all depends on the level of third party support as seen with Switch.

When third party support was weak, Nintendo dominated unit sales. When third parties improved support, the split was much more balanced.

Even if instead of units it's gross software revenue generated by either first or third party software, the percentage should still be roughly similar and still too high: always above around two thirds or three quarters from first-party depending on the quarter or year.

That percentage of first party sales (in case of this quarter covering Switch 1+2, not just Switch 2) pretty much matched the one seen in Switch 2 software units sold of total vs Mario Kart World.

Missing percentages of first-party sales:
FY24 Q1 88.8%
FY24 Q2 72.1%
FY24 Q3 82.6%
FY24 Q4 74.9%
FY25 Q1 73.2%
FY25 Q2 66.3%
FY25 Q3 78.0%
FY25 Q4 71.5%
FY26 Q1 64.8%

Nintendo traditionally had lower seller releases during every Q1 and specially Q2, so traditionally 3rd parties had better percentages during these quarters, while in the non-Nintendo gaming platforms has been historically the opposite: most units and revenue generated by 3rd party sofware instead.

During FY25 and maybe FY24 too, Nintendo was also softer regarding the profile of big seller releases, pretty likely because decided to save the top seller ones (Mario Kart, mainline Mario, mainline Zelda, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing...) for Switch 2. So 3rd parties got a slightly better percentage during that transitional period.

 

[nordique]

So beating xbox series combined with ps 5 in two years?

Needs to beat Wii U first

 

[Woopah]

Even if instead of units it's gross software revenue generated by either first or third party software, the percentage should still be roughly similar and still too high: always above around two thirds or three quarters from first-party depending on the quarter or year.

That percentage of first party sales (in case of this quarter covering Switch 1+2, not just Switch 2) pretty much matched the one seen in Switch 2 software units sold of total vs Mario Kart World.

Missing percentages of first-party sales:
FY24 Q1 88.8%
FY24 Q2 72.1%
FY24 Q3 82.6%
FY24 Q4 74.9%
FY25 Q1 73.2%
FY25 Q2 66.3%
FY25 Q3 78.0%
FY25 Q4 71.5%
FY26 Q1 64.8%

Nintendo traditionally had lower seller releases during every Q1 and specially Q2, so traditionally 3rd parties had better percentages during these quarters, while in the non-Nintendo gaming platforms has been historically the opposite: most units and revenue generated by 3rd party sofware instead.

During FY25 and maybe FY24 too, Nintendo was also softer regarding the profile of big seller releases, pretty likely because decided to save the top seller ones (Mario Kart, mainline Mario, mainline Zelda, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing...) for Switch 2. So 3rd parties got a slightly better percentage during that transitional period.

But it's not gross revenue either, it's Nintendo's revenue.

If people download 10 million first party games at $60 each, Nintendo gets $600 million.

If people download 10 million third party games at $60 each, Nintendo gets around $180 million.

So in this example the gross revenue/unit split is 50%. But the proportion of first party sales is 77%.

Therefore we shouldn't consider these %s to be the same.

 

[iHaunter]

What Nintendo does to customers and still sells units.

 

[MrA]

How do you know what their profit margins are? Some teardown estimate? Consoles work as a business model if they are sold at a loss so any profit is actually good. 30% bought fucking Pro controller 2s which are very high margins. I bought one and DK but I am cheap and used Costco for the controller at 10$ off and 10% off on eshop.

I am still confused at these numbers and the reality that Target has had them for over a week as well as other retailers. Are they in stock because people assume they are not? People are still posting on Reddit like they scored something rare when they get one. Are they in stock now because Nintendo diverted all stock to the US to avoid tariffs? Will they sell out and be hard to get for Xmas? I am expecting that to be the case because as of now they have only sold to ~4% of Switch 1 owners, but this is not typical for a console release in the US. At least not for a successful one or even XSX.

Ps4 was readily available by may 2014, after it had shipped around 7 million
Switch 1 was readily available by like August 2017 after it had shipped, why about 7 million units
xsx and ps5 are covid demand spike releases, and had absolutely pathetic availability for the first 2 years, comparing anything to them doesn't mean much

But it's not gross revenue either, it's Nintendo's revenue.

If people download 10 million first party games at $60 each, Nintendo gets $600 million.

If people download 10 million third party games at $60 each, Nintendo gets around $180 million.

So in this example the gross revenue/unit split is 50%. But the proportion of first party sales is 77%.

Therefore we shouldn't consider these %s to be the same.

in addition, physical releases give Nintendo an even smaller cut than digital,

Ah, well I have a solution for that. Sell the games on the regular Switch cards - but make it clear that you need to transfer the whole game onto the Switch 2 internal storage before playing. (For the super loading speed malarkey)

hopefully as sd express comes down in price 16 and 32 gb cards become available

 

[Woopah]

in addition, physical releases give Nintendo an even smaller cut than digital,

Exactly. Plus I believe the royalty rate goes down after a game sells a certain number.

So we don't know the exact royalty % Nintendo gets on average. But it's quite likely to be lower than 30% and definitely way way lower than the cut Nintendo gets on a first party game.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

Top 100 Nintendo published games. Super Mario Advance (5.57 million) is pushed out the Top 100, Mario Kart World (5.63 million) enters at 99 with just a month's worth of sales.

 

[Robb]

We got the split for Mario Kart World.

77% (~4.5M) of sales were bundles
23% (~1.13M) of sales were standalone copies

 

[Hookshot]

Top 100 Nintendo published games. Super Mario Advance (5.57 million) is pushed out the Top 100, Mario Kart World (5.63 million) enters at 99 with just a month's worth of sales.

For a split second I didn't see "NES" and thought there was no way that 100th was true for Tetris, but the GB version is 12th which makes a lot more sense.

DKB will remove the NES version which has held on for a long time.

 

[Gambit2483]

We got the split for Mario Kart World.

77% (~4.5M) of sales were bundles
23% (~1.13M) of sales were standalone copies

Damn. I'm not exactly surprised but still kind of surprised the split was that big.

This sends Nintendo a message that $80 games ain't it. Even Mario Kart, their biggest seller has THIS HUGE of a ratio. No other game could possibly survive $80 except maybe Zelda...maybe

 

[Chuck Berry]

No other game could possibly survive $80 except maybe Zelda...maybe

Mario as well

 

[Robb]

Damn. I'm not exactly surprised but still kind of surprised the split was that big.

This sends Nintendo a message that $80 games ain't it. Even Mario Kart, their biggest seller has THIS HUGE of a ratio. No other game could possibly survive $80 except maybe Zelda...maybe

I assumed it'd be a lot, but yeah, this is more than I thought as well.

A bit too early to tell how it'll fair yet though imo. Most early adopters are likely into Mario Kart and will go for this deal instantly and supposedly more bundled units were produced than not.

But since the bundle is only a temporary offer we should find out pretty soon if it'll keep selling standalone or not.

 

[asdasdasdbb]

Damn. I'm not exactly surprised but still kind of surprised the split was that big.

I mean, if you are buying the console and want MKW, it's $20 cheaper.

 

[Luminoth-4545]

For a split second I didn't see "NES" and thought there was no way that 100th was true for Tetris, but the GB version is 12th which makes a lot more sense.

DKB will remove the NES version which has held on for a long time.

This is what I found on why Tetris did so much better on GB "Tetris sold significantly better on the Game Boy than on the NES primarily due to the Game Boy's portability and the game's suitability for handheld play. Tetris on Game Boy also had a specific bundle with the console, making it a must-have for many buyers. The NES version, while successful, did not have the same level of mass appeal and portability as the Game Boy version".

Also DKB will make the list but not straight away, I think after the holiday quarter or maybe even after the January to March quarter is when it will sell enough. DK is not Mario and 5.6 million is a lot for a series like DK but the quality of the game should give it's sales longevity.

 

[Buggy Loop]

We got the split for Mario Kart World.

77% (~4.5M) of sales were bundles
23% (~1.13M) of sales were standalone copies

What this says is 23% absolutely wanted physical copy because otherwise it made no sense to not buy the bundle

 

[MrA]

This is what I found on why Tetris did so much better on GB "Tetris sold significantly better on the Game Boy than on the NES primarily due to the Game Boy's portability and the game's suitability for handheld play. Tetris on Game Boy also had a specific bundle with the console, making it a must-have for many buyers. The NES version, while successful, did not have the same level of mass appeal and portability as the Game Boy version".

Also DKB will make the list but not straight away, I think after the holiday quarter or maybe even after the January to March quarter is when it will sell enough. DK is not Mario and 5.6 million is a lot for a series like DK but the quality of the game should give it's sales longevity.

Few other details that contributed to tetris success on gb, Tetris for the gameboy was bundled with every us gameboy until 92, and was still an optional bundle until 93
I know it was bundled with every gb outside of Japan at launch, but I don't know when the bundling ended
2 player linking added justification forb2 copies,
Gb games were cheaper
Gb was new at tetris launch and the nes was already nearing replacement
Plus the nes tetris doesn't include the different famicom game by bullet proof software, which sold over 2 million copies

 

[Deerock71]

Hey! Look what I just got yesterday!

 

[Mozza]

Exactly. There's a reason they're called "system sellers". It's no different than with BOTW and Switch 1.Sony and MS used to have them too...

Also, Publishers and Nintendo are going to have to face the harsh fact that the negative reaction to game-key cards, increased game prices and lack of sufficient storage is absolutely going to play a role in the potential slowdown of software sales.

When you say negative reaction to game card's. Do you mean the niche internet sites and YouTube channels begging for attention and revenue. As pretty sure most people do not care.

 

[Gambit2483]

When you say negative reaction to game card's. Do you mean the niche internet sites and YouTube channels begging for attention and revenue. As pretty sure most people do not care.

You sure about that? Mindshare everywhere on the internet suggests that literally NO ONE likes Game-key cards.

Are there arguments for their "acceptance"? Sure, to a degree, but no one is out here saying they prefer them over physical cards.

 

[blacktout]

You sure about that? Mindshare everywhere on the internet suggests that literally NO ONE likes Game-key cards.

Are there arguments for their "acceptance"? Sure, to a degree, but no one is out here saying they prefer them over physical cards.

It's probably too early to tell for sure, but the limited sales data we do have seems to show that games that are complete on the cartridge are selling better than key card games.

 

[Gamer79]

And here is where the sales start to slow down. I can already walk into stores and pick up a switch 2 because they are not flying off shelves. Went into Target last week and they had dozens just sitting there. The Virtual Card fiasco is going to burn Nintendo in the ass.

 

[LordOcidax]

And here is where the sales start to slow down. I can already walk into stores and pick up a switch 2 because they are not flying off shelves. Went into Target last week and they had dozens just sitting there. The Virtual Card fiasco is going to burn Nintendo in the ass.

WiiU 2 confirmed.

 

[Woopah]

And here is where the sales start to slow down. I can already walk into stores and pick up a switch 2 because they are not flying off shelves. Went into Target last week and they had dozens just sitting there. The Virtual Card fiasco is going to burn Nintendo in the ass.

How much do you expect Nintendo to ship this quarter?

 

[MrA]

When you say negative reaction to game card's. Do you mean the niche internet sites and YouTube channels begging for attention and revenue. As pretty sure most people do not care.

I'm sure madden and other mainstream games won't be effected
But for niche games like bravely default and games from nis or atlus are negatively effected by game keys,

And here is where the sales start to slow down. I can already walk into stores and pick up a switch 2 because they are not flying off shelves. Went into Target last week and they had dozens just sitting there. The Virtual Card fiasco is going to burn Nintendo in the ass.

Target sold over 120000 switch 2s in july, possibly only online sales, Walmart has 5 times the market of target, switch 2 will have sold more in 2 months, the slowest summer months, than the ps4 in 6 months, and more than the ps5 did less than 3
Demand is fine, watch q2 end up with like 4 million switch 2s shipped

 

[Mozza]

You sure about that? Mindshare everywhere on the internet suggests that literally NO ONE likes Game-key cards.

Are there arguments for their "acceptance"? Sure, to a degree, but no one is out here saying they prefer them over physical cards.

To niche to be honest. And the bulk of Switch 2 soft sales will be Nintendo's own first party games, which will all be on a cart. Standards offer a compromise between physical and download games, and a resale option as
Well. Not sure the faux outrage is real.

 

[Kataploom]

You sure about that? Mindshare everywhere on the internet suggests that literally NO ONE likes Game-key cards.

Are there arguments for their "acceptance"? Sure, to a degree, but no one is out here saying they prefer them over physical cards.

I maintain that they'll be affected by launch window or first 6 months period because early adopters are mostly dedicated gamers, among whom the physical buyers remain, which tend to be collectors also, so yeah GKC affects specially those people, most mainstream market which will join later or at a slower pace won't care

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

Nintendo's projected sales are 15 million by March 2026. Some analysts believe that is a conservative estimate and it will be closer to 20 million units sold.

I don't think it will reach either. May get close to 15... but I'm guessing it will sell maybe 11 million by March 2026.

 

[Robb]

I don't think it will reach either. May get close to 15... but I'm guessing it will sell maybe 11 million by March 2026.

Are you expecting supply to be an issue over the holidays?

Historically that's Nintendo's absolute best quarter and they tend to push ~10M units that quarter alone, even without a Pokemon release.

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

Are you expecting supply to be an issue over the holidays?

Historically that's Nintendo's absolute best quarter and they tend to push ~10M units that quarter alone, even without a Pokemon release.

I don't expect supply to be an issue. The price is and will always be the issue. It's not an easy sell for parents. You might see a nice bump because of Pokemon, but I doubt it. Legends is not a mainline entry and it's quality leaves a lot to be desired.

But I don't see children clamoring for a Switch 2. And even if they are I don't see parents spending nearly $800 (CDN) to get their kid one.

The Switch 2 is a console for the hardcore, and the hardcore have already got one. Until there is a game with mass appeal released (like a Zelda or Mario), numbers will trickle up slowly. Maybe Pokemon is mass appeal enough. Maybe there are enough blind sheep who will spend any ungodly amount of money for a dogshit quality Pokemon game, but... I hope not.

 

[Baemono]

Nintendo's projected sales are 15 million by March 2026. Some analysts believe that is a conservative estimate and it will be closer to 20 million units sold.

I don't think it will reach either. May get close to 15... but I'm guessing it will sell maybe 11 million by March 2026.

So they sold in one month more than half of what they will sell in 9 months ?

 

[Robb]

Maybe there are enough blind sheep who will spend any ungodly amount of money for a dogshit quality Pokemon game, but... I hope not.

I don't think you need hope, we know. I mean…

I'd personally be shocked if they did 6M in Q1 and only manage another 5M throughout Q2-Q4 (to reach your prediction of 11M).

 

[POKEYCLYDE]

So they sold in one month more than half of what they will sell in 9 months ?

Yes.

 

[RetroGamingUK]

Top 100 Nintendo published games. Super Mario Advance (5.57 million) is pushed out the Top 100, Mario Kart World (5.63 million) enters at 99 with just a month's worth of sales.

Mario Wonder should be higher

The New Super Mario Bros games were all straight up trash