From the graph above right the time from 100% to 97% luminance is like ~5% of the time to 50% initial luminance.
which means 30k * 0.05 = 1500 hours and that's just a 3% luminance drop.
That is interesting. The thing is the lifetime to 50% brightness thing has always been kind of a red-herring to me.
The problem is if one OLED pixel is at 100% luminance, and the one next to it is 97% luminance, that's like having a pixel at 255,255,255 and the pixel next to it at 247,247,247.
Try going into paint and draw a rectangle with color 255,255,255 and then draw another rectangle with color 247,247,247. Or pick any two other colors that differ by 8 and see if you can tell the difference. Even on a pretty shitty monitor you should be able to see that the two colors are different.
In fact on any good monitor you should be able to see the difference between 253,253,253 and 255,255,255, which is just a ~0.8% difference, which would show up if one pixel was ~400 hours further in the lifetime curve than another (if your curve is correct).
Also on AVSforum, there's a guy saying the problem with red/orange/yellow burn-in on the LG OLEDs is related to the problem that to display a yellow or red that is perceptually the same brightness as, say, blue, you have to drive the red and green subpixels much harder than the blue subpixel. This could account for all the instances we're seeing of specific red/orange/yellow burn-in on the LG OLED panels (like Kyoufu's).
Another interesting point on your slide is about the acceleration of wear due to temperature/RH. One thing I noticed about my old plasma TVs is that they have tons of fans on the back to cool them and ABL to dim the screen when they display an all white test frame -- Panasonic 65VT30 dissipates 300W+ and my first plasma (NEC 50MP1) went up to 565W (!!) so limiting peak panel power consumption and active cooling is pretty much critical.
The LG OLEDs are all super thin and have no active cooling. Could it be that this is allowing the OLEDs to reach temperatures where they experience accelerated wear? And also one of the reasons they have ABL enabled which dims the screen after a few seconds when showing frame that uses peak brightness?
Anyway, the more I read about this, the more I'm coming to the conclusion that I just don't want an OLED.