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[Trojan]

It feels so hard not to be pessimistic about things. I'm finding myself actively hoping that the UK economy crashes over the summer so that Brexit becomes politically unfeasible (even though it more or less is or should be already).

About half the US population feels the same way about Trump. If that imposter becomes President, I won't feel bad when Rome burns because it will reveal the truth that he has no idea how to run a country.

"Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster... for when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you."

-Friedrich Nietzsche

 

[norinrad]

Britain will stay in the EU and they still will have the same privileges.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Britain will stay in the EU and they still will have the same privileges.

Not entirely unlikely.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

Britain will stay in the EU and they still will have the same privileges.

I don't know man. Every potential MP wants out. Europe, at this point, also wants Britain out.
You can't just threaten to leave the EU for this amount of time, and expect everything to be the same.

 

[blu]

A guy I know through work has two < 10 year old children, since both their parents are German they tend to speak German to each other. Last Friday (day after the referendum) they were playing football outside by themselves when a considerably older boy started shouting abuse at them because they were speaking a foreign language, and tried to punch them when they wouldn't back down. Thankfully my friend noticed what was going on in time and scared the shit out of the cunt before anything actually happened but yeah.

That anecdote reminds me of another Commonwealth country, where a couple on the bus would be insulted by strangers for speaking in 'barbaric languages' among themselves (in fact, just another European language) some 15 years ago..

The combination of poor education/uprising and a superiority complex is quite a powerful mix that has been fuelling low-brow nationalism across the globe.

 

[norinrad]

Not entirely unlikely.

From where I'm sitting Britain stays and it will come at compromise that benefits the UK. All the tough talk from our unelected friends in Brussels is just that, Britain out of the EU in the long run would be far more damaging as it paves the way for extreme right-wing governments to take over with unforseen consequences possibly breaking the EU up entirely.

 

[Orniletter]

Well Greece is the poster child for the failings of the EU as an institution.

Oh no.

Greece shouldn't have become a member state in the first place and wouldn't if they hadn't faked their books.
Their utterly dysfunctional retirement system, bloated headcount for people employed by the state, and extreme tax evasion sheningans aren't on the EU either.

Their catastrophe is absolutely of their own making and throwing more french, german and british money in the furnace wouldn't have done anything as long as Greece couldn't get it's shit together.

 

[-Plasma Reus-]

From where I'm sitting Britain stays and it will come at compromise that benefits the UK. All the tough talk from our unelected friends in Brussels is just that, Britain out of the EU in the long run would be far more damaging as it paves the way for extreme right-wing governments to take over with unforseen consequences possibly breaking the EU up entirely.

There will absolutely not be a compromise that will benefit the UK. The UK has done posturing before, many times. Even at the beginning of this year where Cameron managed to gain even more special rights for the UK in the EU. This is all over now. In fact, this very result nullified said agreements.

Britain out of the EU and struggling to cope is far more beneficial for the EU when it comes to stomping extremist right-wing nationalist movements.
The EU will also be more cohesive with the UK out of the picture.The UK was a big obstacle to the ever closer union.

I don't know why you think people in Brussels are unelected.
This is madness to me. It's as though there are large portions of people shouting 1+1 = 3, and no matter what you do, it seems to not get through.

 

[Palculator]

I don't know why you think people in Brussels are unelected.

I'd be in denial too if my country elected Nigel Farage to be an MEP.

 

[KDR_11k]

Oh no.

Greece shouldn't have become a member state in the first place and wouldn't if they hadn't faked their books.
Their utterly dysfunctional retirement system, bloated headcount for people employed by the state, and extreme tax evasion sheningans aren't on the EU either.

Their catastrophe is absolutely off their own making and throwing more french, german and british money in the furnace wouldn't have done anything as long as Greece couldn't get it's shit together.

You mean it shouldn't have joined the Euro. Yes. However the people in charge of "fixing" Greece, first and foremost Schäuble, are completely incompetent, following a failed doctrine that economists regularly tell them doesn't effing work but they insist on continuing. Even the IMF told Schäuble that this is stupid but Schäuble has pushed it into a morality argument among the German electorate where this mistreatment of Greece is now considered just punishment for their sins so he cannot back down. Not that he's showing any signs of realizing that he's fucking up and making things worse, of course.

You can probably tell that I don't like that guy. He's completely unsuitable for his post since he keeps running governments like they're private households which is simply not how they work. He was even worse in his previous post with his stasi 2.0 plans.

But hey, we had people claiming expansionary austerity works even in this thread. IMF says no.

 

[Gurgelhals]

I don't know man. Every potential MP wants out. Europe, at this point, also wants Britain out.
You can't just threaten to leave the EU for this amount of time, and expect everything to be the same.

The way I understand it, the various parts of the EU do not have an unanimous view on this though:

The German government is pursuing a softer line, because they would prefer the UK not to leave at all, as it has been its most important ally with regards to fiscal policy (both Germany and the UK like austerity and all that crap). Not completely sure about the Eastern European and Baltic states, but they're on the German side afaik (which is also why the image of Angela Merkel, Eternal God Empress of Europe, is wrong; there are a lot of smaller member states sharing Germany's goals and outlook).

France and Italy, however, would prefer an EU with a loosened fiscal policy, because their economies aren't so hot at the moment, so they're already pushing the UK to get on with it. A Brexit would actually strengthen their position within the remaining union.

And the European Commission is, of course, also pushing for the UK to hurry up and make a definite decision, because a lengthened period of uncertainty also hurts the European Union (though not as bad as the UK, of course, which is kind of the rule of thumb for this entire mess: Whatever happens, both sides will get hurt; however, it will hurt the UK so much more than the rest of the EU).

Anyway, it's safe to assume that come September and/or as soon as a new PM and a Cabinet are in place, pressure will be mounting up from all sides within the EU. Trying to stall invoking Article 50 well into 2017 won't go down well, not even with Germany and its allies.

 

[EMT0]

From where I'm sitting Britain stays and it will come at compromise that benefits the UK. All the tough talk from our unelected friends in Brussels is just that, Britain out of the EU in the long run would be far more damaging as it paves the way for extreme right-wing governments to take over with unforseen consequences possibly breaking the EU up entirely.

Wuuuut. You think the UK is going to get a prize out of all this crap that they've put the EU through? I thought British exceptionalism was dead, but I guess I was wrong ._.

 

[Juicy Bob]

I fucking hate the Conservative Party.

 

[norinrad]

The way I understand it, the various parts of the EU do not have an unanimous view on this though:

The German government is pursuing a softer line, because they would prefer the UK not to leave at all, as it has been its most important ally with regards to fiscal policy (both Germany and the UK like austerity and all that crap). Not completely sure about the Eastern European and Baltic states, but they're on the German side afaik (which is also why the image of Angela Merkel, Eternal God Empress of Europe, is wrong; there are a lot of smaller member states sharing Germany's goals and outlook).

France and Italy, however, would prefer an EU with a loosened fiscal policy, because their economies aren't so hot at the moment, so they're already pushing the UK to get on with it. A Brexit would actually strengthen their position within the remaining union.

And the European Commission is, of course, also pushing for the UK to hurry up and make a definite decision, because a lengthened period of uncertainty also hurts the European Union (though not as bad as the UK, of course, which is kind of the rule of thumb for this entire mess: Whatever happens, both sides will get hurt; however, it will hurt the UK so much more than the rest of the EU).

Anyway, it's safe to assume that come September and/or as soon as a new PM and a Cabinet are in place, pressure will be mounting up from all sides within the EU. Trying to stall invoking Article 50 well into 2017 won't go down well, not even with Germany and its allies.

Make that all the northern countries including Slovenia (Though i never understood why Slovenia almost always agrees with the northern countries)

 

[RedShift]

I fucking hate the Conservative Party.

On that note, is there anyone here who voted Conservative in the general election who's now wishing they hadn't?

We could have had Ed as PM. No Brexit, no Corbyn/Labour tearing itself apart, the SNP would probably be propping up Labour but they wouldn't have any excuse for a second IndyRef... We really do live in the darkest timeline.

 

[norinrad]

I fucking hate the Conservative Party.

 

[Joni]

Even the IMF told Schäuble that this is stupid but Schäuble has pushed it into a morality argument among the German electorate where this mistreatment of Greece is now considered just punishment for their sins so he cannot back down.

There is a difference between what the IMF has said and what the IMF has done. They push Europe for debt relief but they are the ones asking Greece to pay them back. The loans that require these quick ballouts are almost entirely to the IMF as unlike the European Union, they have not deferred the payments to the far future. They push for the end of austerity but they only approve Greek deals based on them, as recently as May 2016. Because the people you hear talking aren't the people actually pushing the IMF. The emergent markets are keen on giving Greece punishment as well. It is also important to note that the major austerity-critic Olivier Blanchard who you are referencing is no longer working at the IMF, his replacement Maurice Obstfeld has said they will focus on austerity. It is really a 'do as I say', not 'do as I do' situation when it comes to the IMF and austerity. And even then, it concerns their old chief economist, as Obstfeld is on the pro-austerity train.

 

[Orniletter]

You mean it shouldn't have joined the Euro. Yes. However the people in charge of "fixing" Greece, first and foremost Schäuble, are completely incompetent, following a failed doctrine that economists regularly tell them doesn't effing work but they insist on continuing. Even the IMF told Schäuble that this is stupid but Schäuble has pushed it into a morality argument among the German electorate where this mistreatment of Greece is now considered just punishment for their sins so he cannot back down. Not that he's showing any signs of realizing that he's fucking up and making things worse, of course.

You can probably tell that I don't like that guy. He's completely unsuitable for his post since he keeps running governments like they're private households which is simply not how they work. He was even worse in his previous post with his stasi 2.0 plans.

But hey, we had people claiming expansionary austerity works even in this thread. IMF says no.

I actually agree that Schäuble's aggressive aussterity won't work. And I'm pretty sure the EU will change their Greece-plans in the next couple of years.

On the other hand, Greece absolutely had to reform their spending and all the other shit that just wouldn't fly in other developed nations. So just bandaiding their severe problems with eurobonds (yuck !) wouldn't have solved anything in the long run.

 

[Sesuadra]

I just heard the news that Farage stands down. That's unbelievable.

 

[Screaming Meat]

I just heard the news that Farage stands down. That's unbelievable.

You won't believe how this rat reacts to his ship sinking!

 

[KingSnake]

From where I'm sitting Britain stays and it will come at compromise that benefits the UK. All the tough talk from our unelected friends in Brussels is just that, Britain out of the EU in the long run would be far more damaging as it paves the way for extreme right-wing governments to take over with unforseen consequences possibly breaking the EU up entirely.

UK already got all the compromises possible within EU and still decided to left. So, no, there won't be anything on top for them as a EU member.

And right wing movement around Europe will be more empowered if UK gets more, not the other way around (I don't know if you noticed, but they went a bit quiet on the subject and some even backtracked in the aftermath of the vote, after the initial enthusiasm). They would just ask the same deal that UK has for their countries, as long as that deal is better in their view (I assume you talk about restricting free movement). And then it will be indeed the death of EU.

 

[norinrad]

UK already got all the compromises possible within EU and still decided to left. So, no, there won't be anything on top for them as a EU member.

And right wing movement around Europe will be more empowered if UK gets more, not the other way around (I don't know if you noticed, but they went a bit quiet on the subject and some even backtracked in the aftermath of the vote, after the initial enthusiasm). They would just ask the same deal that UK has for their countries, as long as that deal is better in their view (I assume you talk about restricting free movement). And then it will be indeed the death of EU.

We will just have to wait and see how things unfold won't we? The political turmoil in the UK will have to come to an end eventually.

 

[BossDarkseid]

We will just have to wait and see how things unfold won't we? The political turmoil in the UK will have to come to an end eventually.

"Challenge accepted"

- uk politics

 

[Theonik]

We will just have to wait and see how things unfold won't we? The political turmoil in the UK will have to come to an end eventually.

I wonder. We have a party election in September, and who-ever wins is pretty much doomed might have general election after that.
Then potentially a couple more years of chaos while parties blame each other for the fuckup.

 

[Meadows]

May plz. plz.

 

[Maledict]

From where I'm sitting Britain stays and it will come at compromise that benefits the UK. All the tough talk from our unelected friends in Brussels is just that, Britain out of the EU in the long run would be far more damaging as it paves the way for extreme right-wing governments to take over with unforseen consequences possibly breaking the EU up entirely.

Nope. As depressing as it is I don't see how we won't leave now. Our political system is set up so that despite almost all MPs knowing it will be a disaster that blows the fuck up out of the country, and we will be poorer in every respect, both main parties will pull the trigger because otherwise they risk losing their seat. On the conservative side it would be through de-selection at the local party level, on labours side it would from losing seats to UKIP in their northern heartland.

We're fucked. Everyone knows it's a mistake but ultimately one of them will pick the gun up and shoot it be ause self interest takes precedence. I do find it remarkably insulting how little 48% of the country matters though - it seems like Boris Johnson was the only one who realized Leave didn't have a mandate and the country was effectively split in two.

 

[Chinner]

May plz. plz.

Sorry, remain sympathisers will have to be deported too.

 

[Meadows]

Sorry, remain sympathisers will have to be deported too.

 

[Kathian]

I mean if there is an early election expect a Lib Dem resurgence of some sort. Labour won't lose any further seats, maybe gaining a few if Corbyn is gone.

Whatever happens. An early election may mean more resignations and turmoil and likely a minority government. Which could be fun, especially for the SNP.

But I can't see the Tories holding one.

 

[kadotsu]

The Pound Sterling is down. Must be a banking day.

 

[Hasney]

The Pound Sterling is down. Must be a bank day.

Almost shoe eating time. Finally!

 

[Maledict]

I mean if there is an early election expect a Lib Dem resurgence of some sort. Labour won't lose any further seats, maybe gaining a few if Corbyn is gone.

Whatever happens. An early election may mean more resignations and turmoil and likely a minority government. Which could be fun, especially for the SNP.

But I can't see the Tories holding one.

The problem is that lib dem gains will be in areas that don't grant them seats - the curse of first pass the post. Rationally they should replace Labour as the main party in London for example, but that ain't happening. Their vote may go up but the seat numbers won't change much.

And re Labour not losing seats - again unfortunately this is unlikely. Corbyn is electoral poison in the north to the working class, in those 87% of Labour seats that voted to leave outside of London. Labours support in the polls comes from its very strong showing in London, which doesn't grant them any extra seats unfortunately. The polls show almost a third of Labour voters won't vote for them in a GE with Corbyn at the top, and that's the same thing the MPs have heard over the last three months - hence so many being desperate to get rid of him. Labours internals show them definitely losing seats right now.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The Pound Sterling is down. Must be a banking day.

Credit Suisse downgraded their forecast today to US $1.22. The FTSE 250 has also given up much of the regains it made. On the back of earnings warnings and things like the Standard Life fund withdrawal freeze. (Notably diverging from the trajectory of the 100.)

 

[Phantast2k]

It feels so hard not to be pessimistic about things. I'm finding myself actively hoping that the UK economy crashes over the summer so that Brexit becomes politically unfeasible (even though it more or less is or should be already).

@BBCNewsnight

Business pessimism 'doubles' after #Brexit vote - from 25% to 49%, @YouGov research suggests

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Credit Suisse downgraded their forecast today to US $1.22. The FTSE 250 has also given up much of the regains it made. On the back of earnings warnings and things like the Standard Life fund withdrawal freeze. (Notably diverging from the trajectory of the 100.)

I wonder how US markets will react when they open in a few hours.

 

[Chittagong]

The Pound Sterling is down. Must be a banking day.

1.25 let's go, my automatic buy order is hungry

 

[GamerMax73]

We could have had Ed as PM. No Brexit, no Corbyn/Labour tearing itself apart, the SNP would probably be propping up Labour but they wouldn't have any excuse for a second IndyRef... We really do live in the darkest timeline.

Cameron was snookered into calling the referendum by UKIP and his own backbenchers. On the opposing benches it all fell apart when they choose Ed over Dave - that's the last point we could have avoided this mess. From that point on Brexit has been pretty much inevitable.

 

[GamerMax73]

Sorry, remain sympathisers will have to be deported too.

If she came out with this as an actual policy I'd join the Tory party just to vote for her! This is the best possible of all outcomes right now!

 

[Undead]

Credit Suisse downgraded their forecast today to US $1.22. The FTSE 250 has also given up much of the regains it made. On the back of earnings warnings and things like the Standard Life fund withdrawal freeze. (Notably diverging from the trajectory of the 100.)

Fuck sake, these selfish, idiotic and naive leave cunts have cost me over £5k

 

[GamerMax73]

But I can't see the Tories holding one.

Guaranteed 4 more years to fuck up the country before you know you'll be kicked out vs a shambolic Lib-Lab coalition bumbling its way through avoiding Brexit for 5 years.

It's a tough call.

I suppose the question becomes - how much do the Tories want to further fuck over the country, and how dead set on Brexit are they?

 

[Joni]

When are shoes being eaten?

 

[CyclopsRock]

I can't envision a situation when any leader of Labour or any leader of the Tories comes out and says "Sorry guys, you are wrong, we aren't going to do what you want us to do." Farron can do it because he doesn't have an electorate that actually votes for him. For the rest - the ones who need to get elected - it's locked.

 

[Kabouter]

I can't envision a situation when any leader of Labour or any leader of the Tories comes out and says "Sorry guys, you are wrong, we aren't going to do what you want us to do." Farron can do it because he doesn't have an electorate that actually votes for him. For the rest - the ones who need to get elected - it's locked.

Yeah, this is happening.

 

[Funky Papa]

I can't envision a situation when any leader of Labour or any leader of the Tories comes out and says "Sorry guys, you are wrong, we aren't going to do what you want us to do." Farron can do it because he doesn't have an electorate that actually votes for him. For the rest - the ones who need to get elected - it's locked.

Alternatively, whoever gets to run the country could let it rot for a few years and then say "hey, so do you want us to go with Article 50 once and for all or are you having second thoughts now?" so a new referendum is held.

Which could be crazy, but this whole mess has been absurd enoguh not to rule out any possibility.

 

[*Splinter]

Fuck sake, these selfish, idiotic and naive leave cunts have cost me over £5k

Not to defend people voting in ignorance, but do you think someone living paycheck to paycheck - or purely off of benefits - cares about anyone who can afford to lose £5k from their savings?

 

[oti]

EU Parliament debating now.
UKIP guy talking. He wants to look forward.

 

[*Splinter]

EU Parliament debating now.
UKIP guy talking. He wants to look forward.

Not backward?

 

[caramac]

On that note, is there anyone here who voted Conservative in the general election who's now wishing they hadn't?

We could have had Ed as PM. No Brexit, no Corbyn/Labour tearing itself apart, the SNP would probably be propping up Labour but they wouldn't have any excuse for a second IndyRef... We really do live in the darkest timeline.

Are you serious?

 

[Pyramid head]

Not to defend them, but do you think someone living paycheck to paycheck - or purely off of benefits - cares about anyone who lost £5k from their savings?

Ehh, I pretty much live paycheck to paycheck but my girlfriend and I have been saving for a few years to take a trip to Japan, something which has also been ruined by said leave voters. I mean, we're still going, everything's booked, but we'll have the bare minimum spending money. So it's pretty hard for me to wish them nothing but the worst right now but it's obvious they're going to take the worst of all this at the end of the day, so I try.

 

[oti]

Le Pen talking.
Her rambling is kinda aimless.


"You will either change your course or you will dissapear"
"Europe of Nations"