Theonik
Member
Last time it was 2:1 was 2007. It was 1.71 last June though.
1.6 before the referendum business started.
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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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1.6 before the referendum business started.
Demographic change alone means that if the same numbers turn up it's likely remain would win in two years time.
Hold this referendum 10 years ago and Remain wins massively. Hold the referendum in 5 years time and remain remains handily. We are unfortunately at a generational shift in politics, and it's happened at precisely the *wrong* time.
So it's the politicians fault? I'm not sure you can dodge responsibility that easily. If you voted Leave, you voted for a campaign which quite clearly had no plan behind it. You surely didn't believe there was a plan that no-one was talking about... surely.
Quite clearly the politicians in this country are responsible for a lot of this mess but I don't think the voting public can abdicate themselves of responsibility for backing the Leave campaign.
Frankfurter
Member
So this seems to be your answer to everything? The UK just has to negotiate and it will *magically* get an amazing deal, for example single market access without free movement - also the latter is an integral part of the former.
I'm not.
The political and economic turmoil of the last few weeks has been enough to show that "Project Fear" was more like "Project Reality", and we haven't even started actually leaving yet.
Any government can choose to ignore the referendum, as it was a non-binding and advisory in nature. The question is the political cost of doing so.
www.hotukdeals.com
Just search Amazon there and find fantastic deals.... YOU VULTURES.
Not that I did this for years on the EU Amazon sites or anything.
ClosingADoor
Member
So what is in this better agreement? What should actually be agreed upon there?
And I don't think comparing the UK to Liechtenstein of all places is very helpful. The country has not even 40.000 people? Just saying it has to be "negotiated hard" doesn't make it any more possible. What does the EU have to gain to give in here towards Britain? Nothing.
Are all the economic forecasts based on the presumption of invoking article 50 straight after the referendum? Are there any forecasts which take into account the damage to the economy in the intervening period between the referendum and the government's attempted negotiation before invoking article 50?
I'm just wondering whether, if the UK is going to leave the EU (which I realise is still far from certain), it would be beneficial to declare article 50 asap or delay it and continue this standoff / negotiation almost indefinitely? Has any research / forecasts been done on this?
I'm just wondering whether, if the UK is going to leave the EU (which I realise is still far from certain), it would be beneficial to declare article 50 asap or delay it and continue this standoff / negotiation almost indefinitely? Has any research / forecasts been done on this?
accel
Member
I repeat, I'd have voted for Leave again. Yes, I think it's better even like that, although the complete unpreparedness of the politics to leave was a big negative surprise that needn't be there.
Not magically, through negotiation. I am not saying the UK will be able to get everything, but getting to EEA as a temporary solution while limiting free movement of people might be attainable.
What would the UK offer in return for this rather gigantic concession?
Ragnar Blackmane
Member
Cake. The best cake.
We'll keep buying all those German cars of course
Lol. OK. Switzerland will have the access to the single market cut out if they don't back down on their referendum, but UK will get the Liechtenstein exception, just because, ignoring everything that lead to this exception.
ClosingADoor
Member
Again, how is the UK in a position to negotiate anything in regards to this? And why should we accept the UK in the EEA if it is only temporary? What is the use in that?
The stuff you are posting here is not a plan. These are dreams, and impossible ones at that.
Frankfurter
Member
Why do you think that might be attainable? Why should the EU accept that kind of a deal? Why would the EU be so stupid as to accept conditions that might ultimately make other EU member states consider leaving? You are banking on the EU countries being stupid fools.
accel
Member
That's not for me to answer, there are too many options. Guarantees of various kinds, acceptance of things that benefit the EU more than the UK.
Because the interest between the EU and the UK is mutual. That's something the UK wants, it can be traded for something the EU wants.
ClosingADoor
Member
Name a few of these options. I can't think of any.
anonymous_abc
Member
An unspecified delay is unlikely to help because uncertainty will just drive corporations away quicker.
If they knew now the worst of it will be over in 3 years that is different than thinking it might take that long before the tough part even begins.
anonymous_abc
Member
Guarantees to not brexit again!
Phantast2k
Member
Good. We too will continue to buy
http://www.smmt.co.uk/2016/01/best-...r-manufacturing-as-exports-reach-record-high/
I would be interested in some of these many options. Can you give five concrete examples?
Kill Your Masters
Member
Various kinds, things, options...Lmao, spoken like a true leaver politician. No substance, just empty words.
Things and stuff and options and "insert random meaningless word here".
Frankfurter
Member
The same is true for Switzerland and the EU. Or Norway and the EU. Why didn't these countries negotiate that kind of a deal?
accel
Member
Look at the EU acts the UK have been blocking over the years and you'll have your answers. Finances, agriculture, etc.
There are like fifteen of you and just one me at the moment.
No matter how many links I give, there's always someone asking to give a link for that and that and that other thing as well.
I apologize for not being able to provide a link to everything, but please understand that I just can't do that, it's too much.
ClosingADoor
Member
But the UK is leaving. They can't block it anymore. So we don't need the UK to approve those things. The UK can't use that in their negotiations anymore. The UK is leaving, it doesn't matter anymore what they think of EU regulations.
You can't block anything now. You lost this leverage.
shinra-bansho
Member
Um. Half price sale on freedom.
They'll use all forty of their negotiators.
That is quite vague, could you give me five concrete examples? Plus, as others have noted, it's not like the UK blocking acts is relevant if the UK leaves.
Acidote
Member
In addition to being... quite vague, that's not something the UK can offer in the negotiations, since as soon as the UK is out those blockades are out the window anyways.
accel
Member
We have been talking about things the UK would have to give in order to leave to EEA without free movement.
You are talking about the inability of the UK to affect future EU policy after being in EEA, that comes after (and ain't really true).
ClosingADoor
Member
No, you are saying the UK will negotiate their way to a better deal with the EEA (aka, no free movement) by not blocking EU regulations anymore - that they can't block because they would be out of the EU by then.
Name one thing that UK blocked in the past and that would be so important to EU to give up on freedom of movement. One thing. That EU can't change on its own once UK is out.
(I'm not even touching how giving up on freedom of movement would be so damning to EU that nothing is worth doing that. Let's assume we live in your ideal world)
iz.podpolja
Neo Member
Giving up banking passports? That's the only thing I can think of, even though it's not something that "standard" EEA agreement includes to begin with, it's more of a separate issue, if I understand correctly.
The Friendly Monster
Member
And if I understand correctly you think that the fact that the UK will no longer have a veto on EU policy is leverage for the UK in negotiations?
They will lose the banking passport anyway. They throw it away when they enact Article 50. It's not leverage for them, it's against them.
Banking passport is something what EU could give to UK, not something that UK can use in a negotiation. It's EU's big leverage.
They are not a part of the EEA, so it's not a concession. The UK desires both EEA access (but with freedom of movement limitations) and retaining the banking passport. If the EU were willing to make such a deal to begin with, the UK would have to make large concessions to get it. Beyond paying vastly more into the EU budget than it does now, there's nothing that comes to mind that the UK really has to offer beyond that which it gives in the EEA deal to begin with. I'm open to hearing what other possible concrete concessions the UK has to offer though.
sechsterangriff
Member
Man, this is a really awkward time to answer to job offers from the UK. As an IT consultant I'm used to to receiving job offers from all around Europe but only now I'm in a mindset that I may actually take them.
Four weeks ago the UK would be one of my top options, but right now with all this uncertainty I'm actually declining offers without even going through the details...
Four weeks ago the UK would be one of my top options, but right now with all this uncertainty I'm actually declining offers without even going through the details...
shinra-bansho
Member
The banking passport is something they need to gain in any exit deal, not something they can offer as a concession. Whatever deal is reached. (This notwithstanding that freedom of movement of people actually facilitates some of this trade in services.)
"I will negotiate with you to take and use your home at any time as my own and I have nothing to give in return. Deal?"
Do you realize how absurd it sounds?
iz.podpolja
Neo Member
That's true, but UK could say: "look, banking passports are important for us, and we were prepared to negotiate hard & fight for it to the last negotiator standing, but... we'll forget about it, if you allow us to close the borders - just a tiny, tiny bit - 'cause that's what the public wants, mkay?"
The Friendly Monster
Member
So rather than negotiate, the UK should beg?
ClosingADoor
Member
"We will not ask you to give us something we want, so please do this other thing we want?" I don't see the EU getting anything out of this.
accel
Member
I am saying something else - that the UK will agree to some of the things the EU tried to do but couldn't because the UK disagreed.
FTA (even portions of it).
It's not a good example with respect to exiting, but it is the right scale.
No, I can not give you five concrete examples on the spot. I mentioned "finances" and "agriculture", which are two areas where we managed to exert some pressure on the EU, that's as far as I will go now because I know that otherwise it will blow up to twenty more pages yet will be largely fruitless in that you will still be of an opinion that I didn't give anything "concrete" enough and I will be just exhausted.
If I come across a document that summarizes areas in which the UK has leverage over the EU, I will link it.
shinra-bansho
Member
The British public is probably dumb enough to having no banking passport in exchange for restrictions on movement. Not that this will even be offered. Because it doesn't have to be.
Allowing the UK to retain passporting and restricting movement of people are both things that the EU has to offer. Neither is something the UK has to offer as a concession. The UK has very little to bargain with. If after two years of wrangling a deal hasn't been reached, the latter will happen and they'll lose the former.
Similarly this bizarre notion that in leaving, you offer the concession of... leaving, and no longer having any influence on EU policy, is not a concession.
And what would be the incentive for the EU to agree with this? The baseline deal is a standard EEA agreement that does not come with the banking passport and does come with freedom of movement. If the UK wants concessions in two important areas from the EU, it will have to offer something in return. I would like to learn what these potential concessions are, particularly since they would have to be highly significant given the importance of the two concessions they would ask of the EU. As I posted before, the only thing that comes to mind is for the UK to pay vastly more into the EU budget in exchange for EEA membership than it does now for EU membership.
That's quite unfortunate. I also think I was entirely reasonable to ask for some concrete examples when you said there were many options for the UK to choose from, and don't think the tone of this response is warranted.
ClosingADoor
Member
Again, the UK would no longer be in the EU. They have no say in these things and can't use it as leverage in their negotiations. It doesn't matter anymore if the UK disagreed, since they are giving up their vote in these matters either way.
It's pointless. Brexiters are convinced it's in everyone's best interest to give the UK a good deal because reasons. They don't realise it'll put the UK in a better position than their own member states - which is an absurd thing to ask from a union.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
It's time for Leavers to realise that they literally lost all rights and entitlements that came with being an EU member and now will have to *concede* something in order to get a fraction of what the UK used to enjoy.
The UK's negotiation strategy could be summed up as "If I die here I will stink the place with my rotting corpse". Regardless of your views on the EU, this is not a good starting position.
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