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[Trumpets]

Pound jumps as UK manufacturing sees its biggest jump in 25 years. Worst. Apocalypse. Ever:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37242804

 

[slider]

Damn Brexit increased the price of my Snyder's pretzel pieces.

Bloody Northerners.

Which flavour, you monster/hero (delete as appropriate)?

 

[BKK]

Construction PMI also well above expectations, although still below 50. 49.2 Vs 45.9 previously and 45.6 forecast. Services PMI on Monday.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Construction PMI also well above expectations, although still below 50. 49.2 Vs 45.9 previously and 45.6 forecast. Services PMI on Monday.

I would expect a good figure for services PMI. The weaker pound has meant we've been able to offers overseas clients a better deal in the last couple of months (legal services).

 

[jelly]

Does it depend how well the profit margins in the long term play out as we import materials at a higher cost and the demand for our goods with the weaker pound?

It's good for some and it's perhaps swapping similar margins with different circumstances.

 

[Beefy]

Pound jumps as UK manufacturing sees its biggest jump in 25 years. Worst. Apocalypse. Ever:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37242804

We haven't exited yet.

 

[Dougald]

I would expect a good figure for services PMI. The weaker pound has meant we've been able to offers overseas clients a better deal in the last couple of months (legal services).

Yes, my company is also expecting better results in the short term due to the pound as my division is all services

 

[Zaph]

Pound jumps as UK manufacturing sees its biggest jump in 25 years. Worst. Apocalypse. Ever:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37242804

Higher manufacturing exports thanks to a weaker pound is great until you have to restock supplies at a higher rate... thanks to the weakened pound.

It's not complicated, and even says so in the article. But I suppose any bit of confirmation bias will do, eh?

 

[travisbickle]

Meanwhile...in Russia

Our future ministers looking out for our future getting all cosy in bed with Putin.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/31/vladimir-putin-eton-boys-private-audience-kremlin

Britain can't be stupid enough to vote a bunch of hopeless, sociopathic, millionaire Eton toffs again!!

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Britain can't be stupid enough to vote a bunch of hopeless, sociopathic, millionaire Eton toffs again!!

Assessing....

....wouldn't like to have a pint with any of them...

...would not vote.

 

[travisbickle]

Assessing....

....wouldn't like to have a pint with any of them...

...would not vote.

I don't mind having a drink with them, I'd skip the cocaine though, it's just I wouldn't allow them to run anything more complicated than a lemonade stand considering the state of the last lot. Even the headteacher of Eton said something along the lines of "my pupils are not all dickheads even though it appears that way" in a recent article.

 

[BKK]

We haven't exited yet.

No, but prior to the referendum the goverment published an analysis of the immediate impact of leaving the EU, and forecast four straight quarters of negative growth (ie, a technical recession) in their best case scenario just from the the immediate aftermath of the vote. It will be interesting to see how it ends up comparing to the actual figures.

 

[chadskin]

No, but prior to the referendum the goverment published an analysis of the immediate impact of leaving the EU, and forecast four straight quarters of negative growth (ie, a technical recession) in their best case scenario just from the the immediate aftermath of the vote. It will be interesting to see how it ends up comparing to the actual figures.

It was likely based on Cameron's pre-referendum vow to immediately invoke Article 50 if Leave wins.

A clearly bullish Mr Cameron pounced on the Mayor’s argument, as Downing Street aides made clear that Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the formal process for a country to quit the EU, would start the same day the result of the referendum came in on June 24.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/22/boris-johnson-savaged-by-_n_9291608.html

Instead, he has resigned.

 

[BKK]

It was likely based on Cameron's pre-referendum vow to immediately invoke Article 50 if Leave wins.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2016/02/22/boris-johnson-savaged-by-_n_9291608.html

Instead, he has resigned.

The analysis actually says it would be even worse the longer it took.

The uncertainty effect
While the referendum would settle the issue of EU membership once and for all, many aspects of the UK’s international and domestic economic policy framework would be put in doubt, leading to a significant rise in uncertainty. Businesses and households would respond to this by putting off spending decisions until the nature of new arrangements with the EU became clearer.

This uncertainty effect would also lower overall demand in the economy in the immediate aftermath of a vote to leave. A large number of academic studies show a clear link between a range of uncertainty measures and economic activity. For this document’s analysis, a comprehensive UK uncertainty indicator was constructed. The Bank ofEngland has also used a similar indicator to evaluate movements in uncertainty.

The extent and duration of the uncertainty created would depend on the progress made in negotiations with the EU and other international partners which would be inherently uncertain. Four processes would need to be completed:

Process 1: agreeing the UK’s terms of withdrawal from the EU under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union

Process 2: agreeing the UK’s new trading relationship with the EU

Process 3: agreeing the UK’s new trading relationships with the rest of the world including over 50 countries with which the UK would need to negotiate new trade arrangements

Process 4: changing the UK’s domestic regulatory and legislative framework

Each of these four processes would be complicated in their own right, but conducting them all at the same time, on any terms that would be acceptable to the UK and within the specified two-year period for leaving the EU would almost certainly be impossible. If these processes were more protracted, the uncertainty would be larger and, as set out in a previous HM Government document, could last up to a decade or more.

 

[Burai]

No, but prior to the referendum the goverment published an analysis of the immediate impact of leaving the EU, and forecast four straight quarters of negative growth (ie, a technical recession) in their best case scenario just from the the immediate aftermath of the vote. It will be interesting to see how it ends up comparing to the actual figures.

But we haven't exited yet.

 

[Norwegian_Imposter]

But we haven't exited yet.

shush now. Dont you know most people think we already have.... jk

 

[BKK]

But we haven't exited yet.

The analysis was for the period leading up to leaving the EU, from 2016 Q3.

Edit: or is this a meme?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Manufacturing at 53.3 is actually moderately good news, it's probably the first post-Brexit indicator to not look bad. That said, it's selling goods manufactured with a strong pound and sold with a cheap one; we have a few months to go before the full impact filters through.

 

[Trumpets]

No, but prior to the referendum the goverment published an analysis of the immediate impact of leaving the EU, and forecast four straight quarters of negative growth (ie, a technical recession) in their best case scenario just from the the immediate aftermath of the vote. It will be interesting to see how it ends up comparing to the actual figures.

Don't spoil it for them. They like their daily Brexit moan and with the end of the world failing to materialise, "But we haven't exited yet." will soon be all they have left.

 

[PJV3]

The analysis actually says it would be even worse the longer it took.

I think Osborne going and the new Chancellor/BoE being prepared to blow a lot of cash during the next few years has made the difference.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Edit: or is this a meme?

lol basically

I look forward to reading it a hundred times on Monday!

 

[Halph n Halph]

But we haven't exited yet.

So why has the gbp devalued?
The whole post ref debate by those who simply cannot accept the result has been terrible. They jump on any bad news, however important or insignificant, with a sneering " told you so " and any good news is greeted with " but we haven't actually left yet "

Edit... I'm not referring to Gaf in particular but article comment sections across the Internet.

 

[Rodelero]

So why has the gbp devalued?
The whole post ref debate by those who simply cannot accept the result has been terrible. They jump on any bad news, however important or insignificant, with a sneering " told you so " and any good news is greeted with " but we haven't actually left yet "

(there are just as many on the pro-Brexit side who are doing the exact opposite, to be fair)

The fact we haven't actually started the process of leaving and the fact that we have literally no idea what our relationship with Europe, or the rest of the world, is going to look like, is massively relevant. In the immediate sense, we have traded a strong pound and stability for a weak pound and relative uncertainty. Some areas of our economy, at least in the immediate term, will be helped by the weaker pound, and others, of course, will not.

On some level, one has to accept that, just because the wheels haven't come off, doesn't mean things are going better than they would have otherwise. Obviously some of the most depressing predictions haven't become true, but then, they were based on a very different government being in place, and based on us exiting quickly than, what we seem to be doing now, which is delay, delay, delay.

 

[Die Squirrel Die]

The analysis actually says it would be even worse the longer it took.

Unless I'm misreading it, this is talking about the uncertainty created once art.50 is invoked but before all 4 processes identified are settled, not what would happen if we hold off on art. 50.

 

[Bleepey]

If Brexit is so fine and dandy why is everyone involved with it running away. If I successfully ran a referendum against the leader of my own party I'd have thought I'd be a shoe in for PM when he resigned, yet Boris ran the fuck away. Why do you wait to dive into a situation where everyone involved is making it a pint of duty to wash their hands from? Boris can't rise to the challenge, Dan Hannan and Farrage were doing next day retractions and you seem to be searching for nuggets of positivity in mountains of shit. There's been a rise in xenophobia, the pound took a dive, local govts are wondering who'll pay for the loss in EU subsidies, construction industry took a hit, huge companies being sold on the cheap cos the pound is worthless but I guess the £350 million a week that can be saved on the NHS will be put to good use. We all know how much Farage loves the NHS.

 

[*Splinter]

So why has the gbp devalued?
The whole post ref debate by those who simply cannot accept the result has been terrible. They jump on any bad news, however important or insignificant, with a sneering " told you so " and any good news is greeted with " but we haven't actually left yet "

Edit... I'm not referring to Gaf in particular but article comment sections across the Internet.

The only sneering "told you so" posts I've seen have been from pro-Leave posters jumping on anything that could be construed as good news.

Although I'm referring to GAF in particular, not article comment sections across the internet.

Pound jumps as UK manufacturing sees its biggest jump in 25 years. Worst. Apocalypse. Ever:

Don't spoil it for them. They like their daily Brexit moan and with the end of the world failing to materialise, "But we haven't exited yet." will soon be all they have left.

Posts like this get responded to with "we haven't left yet" because that's the only response it deserves. There is clearly no interest in discussion from commenters like this.

 

[BKK]

Unless I'm misreading it, this is talking about the uncertainty created once art.50 is invoked but before all 4 processes identified are settled, not what would happen if we hold off on art. 50.

I'm not sure that I see how invoking article 50 creates uncertainty. What factors that are currently certain become uncertain once article 50 is invoked?

 

[chadskin]

The analysis actually says it would be even worse the longer it took.

Based on the assumption that Article 50 would be triggered immediately after the vote, yes. Once the clock starts running and you're not the least bit prepared, obviously the longer it takes for you to take care of the processes mentioned, the higher the uncertainty and the more damaging its effects.

Imagine if Article 50 had been triggered and the UK government would look as clueless as they do since the vote. We're now more than two months removed from the vote and the government still doesn't have a solid idea of how the UK's future relationship with the EU should actually look like. That display would've created a much greater uncertainty than the uncertainty we see now when nothing has happened, no irreversible process has been put in motion and no clock is ticking down in the background.

In any case, once Article 50 is actually triggered, the short-term effect will likely be softer than outlined in the analysis now because everyone had more time to prepare. Worth remembering many, including the stock markets, didn't actually expect Leave to win.

 

[BKK]

Based on the assumption that Article 50 would be triggered immediately after the vote, yes. Once the clock starts running and you're not the least bit prepared, obviously the longer it takes for you to take care of the processes mentioned, the higher the uncertainty and the more damaging its effects.

Imagine if Article 50 had been triggered and the UK government would look as clueless as they do since the vote. We're now more than two months removed from the vote and the government still doesn't have a solid idea of how the UK's future relationship with the EU should actually look like. That display would've created a much greater uncertainty than the uncertainty we see now when nothing has happened, no irreversible process has been put in motion and no clock is ticking down in the background.

In any case, once Article 50 is actually triggered, the short-term effect will likely be softer than outlined in the analysis now because everyone had more time to prepare. Worth remembering many, including the stock markets, didn't actually expect Leave to win.

Putting an irreversible process into motion decreases uncertainty by it's very nature of being irreversible.

 

[chadskin]

Putting an irreversible process into motion decreases uncertainty by it's very nature of being irreversible.

Not if no one knows what the other side of that process is going to look like, ranging from a Norway-style deal to WTO trade rules.

We still don't know two+ months later. We don't even know if the UK can negotiate a new trade deal with the EU in the two-year time frame at all. All of which creates uncertainty, in particular for companies that depend on access to the EU single market and the free movement of people.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Putting an irreversible process into motion decreases uncertainty by it's very nature of being irreversible.

Not really. Right now, the UK is under no real time pressure, and we can sort out at least some of the details before we enter negotiating (hopefully), so while people are uncertain about what will be the case in 5 years time, they can be confident they will have at least some forewarning and will be able to partially plan. If we had a time pressure, we might crash out with very little actually sorted out and no real idea of what will happen, which makes it very difficult to plan.

 

[*Splinter]

If I have an exam that I can take at any time but need to register for 1 week in advance, and am currently totally unprepared for, then registering increases my certainty for the future but only because I will be more certain that I will fail the exam.

 

[*Splinter]

On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if the forecasts BKK mentioned were indeed on the cynical side.

 

[BKK]

Not if no one knows what the other side of that process is going to look like, ranging from a Norway-style deal to WTO trade rules.

We still don't know two+ months later. We don't even know if the UK can negotiate a new trade deal with the EU in the two-year time frame at all. All of which creates uncertainty, in particular for companies that depend on access to the EU single market and the free movement of people.

But those are all known uncertainties even before invoking article 50. They're not additional uncertainties once article 50 is invoked. I feel that we're going around in circles, so I'll just leave this here.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Go Sturgeon!

https://www.facebook.com/theSNP/videos/10154572424904078/

 

[chadskin]

But those are all known uncertainties even before invoking article 50. They're not additional uncertainties once article 50 is invoked. I feel that we're going around in circles here, so I'll just leave this here.

The UK government now has the opportunity to calmly crunch the numbers, sound out what's going to happen, when and how and figure out what kind of future relationship with the EU they want to seek before they trigger Article 50. We're going to have a much clearer idea on all of that in due time, before negotiations with the EU start, allowing everyone to plan ahead, thus removing a good bit of uncertainty that would've otherwise persisted for months while the two-year deadline had loomed on the horizon. Again, the kind of clueless display of the UK government we've seen in the aftermath of the vote would've been far more damaging if the Article 50 process had already begun.

Sure, whether the UK ultimately gets what it seeks depends on the negotiations with the EU and is not set in stone either way (which is why it's important to go into these with realistic expectations). But it's not like the current uncertainty hasn't negatively affected the UK at all, it's just that immediately invoking Article 50 would've likely lead to an exponentially higher uncertainty and hence a larger negative effect that would've rippled through the quarters.

 

[Meadows]

Manufacturing and construction PMIs both much better than expected. That, coupled with slight under performance in the US economy has pushed up the pound quite a bit.

Currently tracking at £1.33. To be honest, I think a lot of forecasters are starting to admit they were wrong in their predictions of £1.20-25 being the new norm.

I'm not trying to say low-mid 30s is good, but it's not terrible, and gives a decent platform for recovery in a 3-5 year timeline. It's also worth remembering that the pre-Brexit level was not really £1.49 as most said - this was the upswing before the Sunderland result. The actual figure was around £1.44, with it going as low as £1.42 when there was some decent polling for Leave a couple of weeks before the ref.

The FTSE 250 has also been doing well and - barring £ adjustments - are only a couple of hundred points off record highs.

Again, so far it looks as if the short-to-medium term impact of Brexit is not as bad as the vast majority expected, but it certainly has harmed the economy, probably to the tune of around 0.3% per quarter.

The long term future is very difficult to tell, but it's probably somewhere between "pretty damaging" and "not having had much of an impact".

 

[StayDead]

Manufacturing and construction PMIs both much better than expected. That, coupled with slight under performance in the US economy has pushed up the pound quite a bit.

Currently tracking at £1.33. To be honest, I think a lot of forecasters are starting to admit they were wrong in their predictions of £1.20-25 being the new norm.

I'm not trying to say low-mid 30s is good, but it's not terrible, and gives a decent platform for recovery in a 3-5 year timeline. It's also worth remembering that the pre-Brexit level was not really £1.49 as most said - this was the upswing before the Sunderland result. The actual figure was around £1.44, with it going as low as £1.42 when there was some decent polling for Leave a couple of weeks before the ref.

The FTSE 250 has also been doing well and - barring £ adjustments - are only a couple of hundred points off record highs.

Again, so far it looks as if the short-to-medium term impact of Brexit is not as bad as the vast majority expected, but it certainly has harmed the economy, probably to the tune of around 0.3% per quarter.

The long term future is very difficult to tell, but it's probably somewhere between "pretty damaging" and "not having had much of an impact".

Thing is, we've not left the EU yet and it doesn't look like we will any time soon. That's why the market is getting better.

 

[Raist]

I'm not sure that I see how invoking article 50 creates uncertainty. What factors that are currently certain become uncertain once article 50 is invoked?

They're talking in that analysis about the uncertainty on negociations and how it will all look like once the UK is officially, in effect, out of the EU.

The thing is that it's taking so long to just even invoke A50 that a lot of analysts and economists are still not even fully convinced the UK will actually leave the EU at all. Watch Bloomberg for 30mins and you'll likely hear it a couple of times.

 

[BKK]

They're talking in that analysis about the uncertainty on negociations and how it will all look like once the UK is officially, in effect, out of the EU.

The thing is that it's taking so long to just even invoke A50 that a lot of analysts and economists are still not even fully convinced the UK will actually leave the EU at all. Watch Bloomberg for 30mins and you'll likely hear it a couple of times.

All about US non-farm payrolls on Bloomberg today.

 

[Meadows]

I'm not sure why some people think the UK isn't going to leave the EU.

May could literally not be clearer. Every 10 minutes she says "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it".

Unless the EU turns around and goes, fine, no freedom of movement, but you get to stay, which is not going to happen for about 70 different reasons, then we're going to leave.

Spoiler

Again, I voted Remain, even though I think the EU is a very deeply flawed institution and that the UK has the possibility of a bright future on its own. I just think we should have been more proactive at reforming it from the inside but that's easier said than done

 

[chadskin]

I'm not sure why some people think the UK isn't going to leave the EU.

May could literally not be clearer. Every 10 minutes she says "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it".

Unless the EU turns around and goes, fine, no freedom of movement, but you get to stay, which is not going to happen for about 70 different reasons, then we're going to leave.

For the precise reason Tony Blair mentioned today:

Former UK prime minister Tony Blair (1997-2007) told French radio station Europe 1 the UK "has the right" to still change its mind on whether to leave the EU. "At this moment it is not likely" that public opinion will shift towards remaining, he said. But Blair noted that the debate on EU membership continues. "Who made the rule that we have to end the debate now?", he said.

https://euobserver.com/tickers/134883

Civil servants are currently crunching the numbers for various Brexit scenarios. If they find the most realistic one (i.e. no access to the EU single market) would lead to a disastrous impact on the UK economy for decades to come, it may very well change public opinion, especially if the messengers of these findings are not David Cameron and George Osborne, but staunch Brexiteers like Davis, Fox and Johnson.

I don't think a reversal on the vote is particularly likely but it's also not completely impossible.

 

[Par Score]

I'm not sure why some people think the UK isn't going to leave the EU.

May could literally not be clearer. Every 10 minutes she says "Brexit means Brexit and we're going to make a success of it".

Because saying "Brexit means Brexit" is utterly meaningless.

Fwibble means Fwibble. There. End of story.

Oh, you don't know what Fwibble means? Well nobody knows what Brexit means either, not yet.

Does Brexit mean a total and complete severing of all treaties and relations with the EU? Not even the most hard line Brexiteer would suggest that.

Does Brexit mean we leave the EU, but try and maintain a Norway style agreement? Or a Swiss? Turkish? Any and all of those are hard sells to different people on both sides of the debate, and both sides of the channel.

Until exactly what "Brexit" means is spelled out, or even what UKGov wants it to mean, then Brexit means the square root of fuck all.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

Why the fuck do people believe in the lump of labour fallacy so much that we're going to sacrifice single market membership so those immigrants can go home?

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/BREXIT/press1.asp?index=5053

Free ponies won't be given to every poor person just because of lower immigration

 

[daviyoung]

Until exactly what "Brexit" means is spelled out, or even what UKGov wants it to mean, then Brexit means the square root of fuck all.

It means something will change with regards to Britain's relationship with the EU. That is, a change outside the parameters offered to it currently. It's not defined to the minutae but Brexit means at least one unprecedented change to a current agreement.

 

[RedSparrows]

Why the fuck do people believe in the lump of labour fallacy so much that we're going to sacrifice single market membership so those immigrants can go home?

This is what I can't get.

I understand having philosophical issues with the EU, as well as substantive issues with policies, precedents, etc. Fine. Good, even, as the EU needs watching.

But the number of people I've heard/read who voted leave as if there are no costs to it, as if the benefits of the EU were non-existent, as if the cost/benefit analysis of 'our own lightbulbs vs single market access' was clearly in favour of the lightbulbs. Jesus wept.

I always think there's something to be said to make people, every now and then, argue for the position they do not believe in. It won't change minds (necessarily), but it does offer insight into another way of doing things. I get the feeling many people have no idea what benefits the EU brings, and thus assumed there weren't any.

 

[Audioboxer]

Go Sturgeon!

https://www.facebook.com/theSNP/videos/10154572424904078/

lol 75% of Scots trust the Scottish government to act in best interests, less than 25% trust the UK government to act in best interests.

Tories gonna Tory, England gonna keep voting Tory. Life carries on as is.

Also the more focus on mental health in the NHS up here the better as that will probably be where my future career begins.

 

[daviyoung]

Why the fuck do people believe in the lump of labour fallacy so much that we're going to sacrifice single market membership so those immigrants can go home?

People believe that the Good Ship Blighty is a dominant Man of War that is being depressingly moored to the shores by unscrupulous and untrustworthy harbour masters, when in reality it's an ancient schooner with a hole in it.

 

[Royal_Phalanx]

The EU is an far from perfect institution, and has forced austerity on Greece, etc. and tends to try and find one size fits all solutions, but to throw away a perfectly good set of trade agreements and opportunities for the citizen so maybe poor people could have a better life, which isn't supported by serious research? The voters need to be better informed, and the Government should make it clear that if you do full Brexit, the economy will likely suffer as a result for many years and you'll be in a limbo of NO TRADE AGREEMENTS at all for a very long time, and you will lose all your rights to work in another EU country and will now need a visa to enter the EU. Many UK citizens don't give a fuck about learning other languages, so I don't think anyone will care. And I thought an American exceptionalism type mentality was only confined to the USA.

 

[Theonik]

The EU is an far from perfect institution, and has forced austerity on Greece, etc. and tends to try and find one size fits all solutions, but to throw away a perfectly good set of trade agreements and opportunities for the citizen so maybe poor people could have a better life, which isn't supported by serious research? The voters need to be better informed, and the Government should make it clear that if you do full Brexit, the economy will likely suffer as a result for many years and you'll be in a limbo of NO TRADE AGREEMENTS at all for a very long time, and you will lose all your rights to work in another EU country and will now need a visa to enter the EU. Many UK citizens don't give a fuck about learning other languages, so I don't think anyone will care. And I thought an American exceptionalism type mentality was only confined to the USA.

That mentality had to have come from somewhere you know.