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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM
- Thread starter Hasney
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Do we send a Euro amount to the EU in membership costs, or is it in pounds?
At this rate we actually will be sending £350m a week
Day to day things priced in pounds that are imported heavily haven't really changed too much yet, I'm still spending about the same per month on groceries for example. I buy motorcycle parts from Europe and my wife orders a fair few things direct from China and we have noticed the prices have gone up a lot in the last few months though
Toytown Assassin
Member
It'd be a new party yeah. They do need a leader after all. Would have to include the lib dems in some way though or they'd just be splitting the pro EU vote and would stand no chance under FPTP.
Ashcrofts polling before the 2015 election showed that the crucial swing voters, who used to vote labour and now vote tory, see Blair as by far the best leader labour have had even now. Those are the people who labour has to persuade to vote for them if they ever want to win a general election.
AHA-Lambda
Member
Guardian article on that LSE professor
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/lse-brexit-non-uk-experts-foreign-academics?CMP=fb_
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/07/lse-brexit-non-uk-experts-foreign-academics?CMP=fb_
I think all evidence in the past 6 months would point to Labour not caring about such trifling matters!
Honestly, I've always considered myself pretty left wing and at this point even I wouldn't vote Labour. They don't have a chance in hell of getting enough seats in 2020.
PJV3
Member
Corbyn is never going to win an election, voting Labour where it makes sense at least ensures a viable party exists when he goes.
The Libdem situation is tough to recover from.
Dorsal Axe
Member
The very idea of Blair returning to frontline politics is ludicrous...
...in any other year that isn't the shitshow that is 2016.
...in any other year that isn't the shitshow that is 2016.
I wonder how different things would have been had the AV vote gone through. Perhaps, had the conservatives not been in a position where they could be running for a majority, they wouldn't have suggested an in-out referendum on membership of the European Union. But on the other hand, we'd probably be seeing UKIP being a large part of the current parliament.
Which doesn't seem too different from the current situation, actually.
Which doesn't seem too different from the current situation, actually.
Corbyn and his supporters don't care about winning power, they care about yelling from the margins and being idealistic. It's easy to sound tough and make sweeping promises when you don't have to keep them. Many of the younger voters just want some great strife to be angry with, so the Torys being in gives them something to rail against.
Edit: the fact May is considering a hard Brexit without even a whiff of getting further consent / a mandate via a GE shows how bad Labour are right now. A viable opposition would hang draw and quarter her.
Orniletter
Banned
Anyone seen blackcrane or Trumpets the last couple of days ?
What if Brown had been brave enough to call that early General Election, where he probably would have won with a slim majority?
Mind you the media was already crucifying him at that point. Remember when the papers slayed him for calling a woman who was railing against immigrants a bigot when he thought no-one was listening
Yep, they'll give you the "refusing to compromise on our principles" speech, but in order to actually govern in a democracy, you have to actually make concessions.
blackcrane is still banned.
Can't even find Trumpets, am I being thick or did he change name?
CyclopsRock
Member
Will they though? I mean, as long as they need to be cheaper than the alternatives which are larger, why would their price be higher?
Camp Freddie
Member
I suspect it's a cunning strategy to avoid Tory voters throwing a tantrum when government house-building overrides their NIMBY objections and causes their house price to fall.
By building shit houses you add supply and reduce costs at the low end, but minimise the impact on old house prices, which will retain their desirability. There will still be some impact, due to the indirect effect of people being able to buy a shit house instead of being forced to max out their mortgage to buy an existing one - but new houses will not be directly competing against old houses.
Plus, it'll make it easier to get lots of new houses since the stats tend to count 'houses built' rather than any measure of the quality of the housing. The Tories can build tens of thousands of shoebox apartments and claim to have increased housebuilding while actually using less land than Labour/The Cameroons did.
I'm of the opinion that any small undesirable houses built today will simply become the slums of tomorrow. I don't think we should return to the 60's "build 'em high/small, sell 'em cheap" philosophy.
Elaugaufein
Member
I'm not sure this is going to be as successful as you think.
Right wingers always think the most right wing centre left person available is the best left person available and vice versa. That doesn't mean they'll vote for them in any significant numbers.
This plan requires overwhelming numbers because you have to compensate for however many people stay with Labor.
Even more so because the voters you're trying to get are likely to be highly pro-Brexit , which your hypothetical party almost certainly won't (at least not one you'd personally support).
CyclopsRock
Member
Do we have any choice though? If we want to build them where people want to live, that is. It's all very well saying that we can use Brownland areas for new housing - and why not - but ultimately if people wanted to actually live there, it wouldn't be brownland. The only practical way to increase density in popular areas is to build smaller and/or higher.
Seems the Chancellor is going to have difficulty selling his turbulence is to be expected message - most will just read it as "the government and central bank will not be reacting to market turbulence"
The fact an IT issue causes continual problems even after its fixed tells you the demand for sterling is pretty low. It's going to keep dropping.
BoE is going to have to increase interest rates to stave of inflation (and increase the pounds value) whilst the government has spent years living off household debt. I really do think this is going to get much worse; countries don't decide to change their entire outlook overnight but overtime. We're trying to change in a year.
Clear conference season has caused a drop in market confidence.
The fact an IT issue causes continual problems even after its fixed tells you the demand for sterling is pretty low. It's going to keep dropping.
BoE is going to have to increase interest rates to stave of inflation (and increase the pounds value) whilst the government has spent years living off household debt. I really do think this is going to get much worse; countries don't decide to change their entire outlook overnight but overtime. We're trying to change in a year.
Clear conference season has caused a drop in market confidence.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Blair was often a cooler head though and was instrumental in working out the Good Friday Agreement. I know there's the issue of the Iraq War but he did some good things.
frontieruk
Member
Every 1% increase in the supply of new builds makes mortgage income ratios worse by 9%.
But it's OK as we're tired of listening to experts /s
Not meaning to sound aggressive to you, just annoyed with the situation as its played out like this for the last ~40 years and no one's worked out how to fix it. What happens is the new housing just prices out at current low levels and everything else increases so it's a net loss to new buyers as they get less for the same money.
I knew it. This economics bullshit that's never been proven still rules and yet all you have to do is look at the real world and see it behaves nothing like the perfect rational agents, and the supply equals demand nonsense.
Eh?
frontieruk
Member
Economics says increasing supply of housing will lower prices, empirical evidence shows the opposite, with pricing at best staying the same, at worst rising.
It's more that the property market is not just the property market, but linked into a few other markets as well intrinsically. It's still supply and demand, but it's more complex than one supply + demand relationship:
House supply increases -> Lenders relax Mortgage conditions because risk can now be hedged over multiple properties.
More mortgages availiable -> more buyers in the market
More buyers in the market -> More demand for housing
More demand for housing -> House prices maintain or increase.
Anti-intellectualism is a bad look.
It's not that simple.
frontieruk
Member
Did I say it was?
I was generalising why Calabi was pissed at the economic view which the politicians spout which is increasing available housing will make them cheaper, but what actually happens is as we both stated housing prices remain level or increase, but thanks for recapping what I said
Did I say it was?
I was generalising why Calabi was pissed at the economic view which the politicians spout which is increasing available housing will make them cheaper, but what actually happens is as we both stated housing prices remain level or increase, but thanks for recapping what I said
misinterpreted what you were saying entirely, sorry
'Anti-intellectualism is a bad look.' this was more for Calabi, anti intellectualism is why we're in this mess lol
Hollande has his back against the wall. He may as well enjoy his beautiful girlfriend while he can. He will be voted out.
He sure will, but you can safely bet that his successor's message regarding how to deal negotiations with UK will be the same.
Because what he said this week was said many times in this thread since the referendum, and is just common sense.
There simply cannot be any sweet deal for UK without jeopardizing the rest of the European Union.
War Peaceman
You're a big guy.
Plus, there are no benefits to going easy on us.
So you think Sarkozy or heaven help us Le Pen will be nicer?
It's in Le Pen's interest to make Brexit as successful as possible in order to persuade the French to do the same. Interestingly enough helping the UK would also kinda go against her vision of a "Europe of Nations" so who knows oh wait we all know she's just batshit insane.
Carl2291
Member
She will want a good deal for France but she also can't afford to look weak and give Britain what it wants. The French wouldn't like that. So she can only do weak brexit if she had a referendum first. At which point she would lose power to negotiate.
I took their names as their party names are awful to spell out on an English phone and you know just silly looking at Les Republicains.
harriet the spy
Member
Le Pen will never win and anyone who thinks so doesn't understand French politics. She'll probably make it to the second round though - which is very sad.
DarthMasta
Member
In theory LePen would want the UK to get the best possible deal ever. In practice that would mean the entity the UK had gotten a deal from would implode the next year.
And then LePen, being a nationalist, and French, would somehow still want to give Britain good deals for some reason?
And then LePen, being a nationalist, and French, would somehow still want to give Britain good deals for some reason?
PdotMichael
Banned
I like the entitlement of the British people that the EU is somehow responsible to make the transition of leaving the EU so smooth as possible.
Sarkozy wants to keep the UK in. Le Pen wants France out of the EU. Red pill or blue pill?
Halph n Halph
Member
How does he plan to keep the UK in if he gets elected? I'm not sure if he could actually offer anything to trigger a second vote.
He's a politician.
KonradLaw
Member
Threaten to ban imports of UK's delicious cake and cheese, which would result in total collapse of british economy.
Obviously.
Halph n Halph
Member
It seems a strange thing to say. Why would French voters care if Britain stays in or not? I'd hardly think it's a vote winner.
The LR party has a great chance to win the next presidential elections, but I really doubt that they can succeed with Sarkozy being their candidate (as he's entangled into too many affairs right now).
At the time being, odds are that Juppé will likely be their champ.
Which would not be very convenient for the UK interests, since he's clearly pro-European.
I wasnt trying to be anti-intellectual I've just read a few books that debunk common economic theories one by Steve Keen for instance. I'm pretty sure most economic thinking has become discredited and never proven to a great extent. Economics isnt treated with the stringency that most science is. Its mostly theories for theories sake. I think even students are catching onto this, because it certainly isn't helping to predict or manipulate our current predicaments, which is what its supposed to do.
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Not very likely to happen at this point, but probably thinking about stability in Northwestern Europe.
Obligatory
fucking UKIP is heralded where I have to live these days
My mother, being as edgy as she likes to be, would vote for Trump even though "the only problem is that he doesn't like black people"
...
she's black
~~
What is it with this nationalist movement these days? And how does it interchange US and UK nationalism so easily?
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