Missed my point by a mile. I must be an expert if you're ignoring me so deftly.
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The UK votes to leave the European Union
- Thread starter Spring Drive
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Missed my point by a mile. I must be an expert if you're ignoring me so deftly.
Oh I'm not saying the UK will be massively damaged by this, the strength of our economy has very little to do with our membership of the EU.
That won't stop the EU from reacting aggressively towards us though and try and make an example of us.
I'll say this as straight forwardly as I can as its been said umpteen times in this thread, there's no punishment or if there is its a side effect of the eu primary concern which is to make the eventual deal with the U.K. so puntative that no other member state would think you know what I'll leave and get me some sweet deal like the uk got
There's no emotion or retribution out of pique behind it its simple politics. The eu needs to make the prospect of leaving so unpalatable that there's no incentive for any other member state to do so. There's a cost to the benefits of membership any exit needs to be made higher than those costs and offer far less benefits. The U.K. Is ultimately going to get a far worse deal to keep a trade relationship open than it currently has as a member. There would be no point to Eu membership if that wasn't the case.
And while the in value terms the Eu exports more to the uk than the uk exports to the Eu. U.K. Exports to the eu make up about 44% of the uks total exports, the European exports to the uk make up about 12% of the eu total exports (about 3% of rEU gdp) and that's shared between 27 countries , put simply they can do without our market far easier than we can do without access theirs.
What? Not at all. Our companies would just run from this burning house.
Gemüsepizza
Member
Why should we be salty? You are the ones who have destroyed your country: The United Kingdom will cease to exist. Scotland and Northern Ireland will leave the UK. Countless businesses will disappear or relocate. The whole financial sector will move to other EU countries. Your economy was massively weakened. Funding for universities and research will stop. Young, talented people will not be coming to your country anymore in the future, and your own young people will leave. Many progressive laws securing rights for workers and minorities will disappear. What's left is a small country called England (and Wales) with a capital that has completely lost it's importance, a country with a population which consists to a significant extent of racist and old people, uneducated and poor people. I'm not salty. But maybe you should be salty.
...
Boy Wander
Member
You know fuck all of the future and yet you're doom-mongering. What will you do when you fail to do fuck all in Scotland? Blame them and move to France. And no, I'm not a placard waver. I actually work in the financial district in London and I have some perspective. You just come off like a fucking young,immature naive martyr and frankly your rhetoric is an insult to people who in the past have fought to keep this country independent. So forgive me if I find your hissy fit laughable in the grand scheme of things.
Yes. And now that's only going to get worse.
do you remember the GE from 2015, the Tories won by making sure older people voted and screwed young people to the wall...
and now you want them to go...were sorry all you people who gave us a majority Government, we are going to listen to these young people who wont vote for us in the next GE!
never going to happen
Napoleonthechimp
Member
No. You don't live here.
It was based on nationalistic fervour and nothing else.
I run my own business offering technical services on film productions. Just recently I worked on two high profile corporate shoots and earlier this year on a indie feature film.
Without EU funding and the ability to move freely around Europe the entire film industry is likely to dry up and with it any potential for me to expand my business. And after over 15 years working towards it I am unlikely to make any decent amount of money in other fields. So either I move to a country that is more politically aligned with my own beliefs AND who have the potential to offer me a future, or I stay in England and hate the people I'm surrounded by while trying to figure out how to set up offices abroad so I can still work.
It's hilarious how people keep defending leave voters and their rights to make opinions.
This is fully fair, but come on now - after the referendum HUGE spikes were seen of people asking what it even is, what happens if we leave etc. People were blinded by the central issue of 'immigration' and many on the issue of the NHS yet BOTH of these were back-pedalled within hours of the result coming out.
There a few a people I have spoken to with legitimate leave reasons, but the vast majority have been 'Sovereignty! NHS! Take back our country! Immigrants!'. It appears people literally read a UKIP brochure through their door and thought 'yup, we good'.
Then hours after, the same people come out regretting their vote and stating they didn't think it would happen. The anger towards the Leave crowd is extremely well justified, and the majority fall within the ignorant camp who have been royally screwed over by the same people who promised them such things.
Utter disaster.
This is fully fair, but come on now - after the referendum HUGE spikes were seen of people asking what it even is, what happens if we leave etc. People were blinded by the central issue of 'immigration' and many on the issue of the NHS yet BOTH of these were back-pedalled within hours of the result coming out.
There a few a people I have spoken to with legitimate leave reasons, but the vast majority have been 'Sovereignty! NHS! Take back our country! Immigrants!'. It appears people literally read a UKIP brochure through their door and thought 'yup, we good'.
Then hours after, the same people come out regretting their vote and stating they didn't think it would happen. The anger towards the Leave crowd is extremely well justified, and the majority fall within the ignorant camp who have been royally screwed over by the same people who promised them such things.
Utter disaster.
Neither of those things are really facts though are they.
AHA-Lambda
Member
Yeah it was a vote of who was the most misinformed and ignorant, unfortunately that won
Darkstorne
Member
Bloody hell man, you're still drinking the immigration kool-aid even after Boris has said there probably won't be a change to immigration after all? You gave him his dream job, swapped one Etonian toff for another, and we'll suffer for it.
The world will go back to work on Monday, there will be a week of anger then slowly life will return to normal
But they were stated as "facts" on the many leave brochures I received...
I got it wrong actually, it's not raw GDP, it's 'just' foreign trade. I'll amend my post to reflect this.
nature boy
Member
I could understand why, but looking at the entire situation it would be so ridiculous if that was the outcome.
"Leave the EU, but stay in the EU all but in name and influence".
We haven't actually left yet.
ShaoranWright
Member
Well, at least it's clear the EU wants this situation finished as fast as possible.
The world is a constantly changing place. A lot of yhe reason why leave one is due to a fear of that change. This is going to cause problems for a long long time.
Darkstorne
Member
I know it won't happen. I gave many reasons why I don't think it would happen. I was just pointing out that this is why such a huge gulf is emerging between young people and old. Today's and tomorrow's working generations have been screwed over by yesterday's.
I find it really telling that the best argument in favour of "Leave" seems to be everything going back to how it was before. Why even go for "Leave" then?
RedSparrows
Member
Yeah and Norway is quite a different country to the UK in so many ways. UK has so much more to lose.
It's probably the best that can be hoped for right now but what a catastrophic failure of government if that is the outcome. Voluntarily going to Club World to Easyjet 'cause... uh... imegrents...
Irrelevant?
45% of our trade goes to the EU. 45%. Let that sink in for a moment.
We will either have to pay tariffs, and accept the hit to our income or negotiate access to the common market which will include accepting the regulations and free movement but without having a say in said regulations. Trying to pretend otherwise is living in a fantasy world.
Why would we waste this much time on a vote like this if the best case scenario is that everything returns to normal?
I mean give that you might think that the UK voting to leave the EU is already a ridiculous outcome to this whole situation, in context it becomes a lot less ridiculous.
I don't see it. The fact that Scotland and NI want to leave will keep coming up and in the news until they have votes and it will keep this in the news. London will suffer as the financial markets keep coming down and jobs are moved back into the EU and as we all know, London news is national news.
Sure, some people that are angry now will just go back to normal come next week. But some will have scars from losing something major to do with their lives going forward and realise that they need to be a lot more politically engaged going forward to achieve their goals.
Hey, you got yours, so who gives a shit, right?
People keep saying that a 'worse' deal would be punitive, but there's more to it than that. Countries like Norway or Switzerland have their current agreements with the EU because those were the mutually agreeable terms for trade. Even with the UK's importance for the European market, Britain leaving the union is a sour deal for the other member states for various political reasons, but also because it negatively affects citizens of the various member states. The UK shouldn't expect to get anything it might want without having to make some concessions. With that in mind, matters are not nearly as simple as some would have them.
Don't forget that, even though Germany and France have significant political sway (especially in the European Parliament, since they have large numbers of MEPs), negotiations are made by the European Council, in which each member state has equal representation (and in which even small countries have been able to hold up progress with regards to things like the refugee crisis).
It's not so much about putting the UK in its place as it is about protecting the interests of the EU and its remaining members, which may not necessarily align with the British ones, and which may trump national economic concerns.
Gemüsepizza
Member
What you don't seem to understand is, that the worst is yet to come. On Monday, the UK will still be in the EU. You don't need to worry about Monday. You need to worry about the coming years.
Mt Heart Attack
Member
Well the people in government would have to face those voters again if they want to be elected/re-elected. Those people (whoever they will be) clearly received a mandate from the UK people against what the current EU-UK relationship is, which is largely equivalent to what a Norway deal would entail, regardless of whether that was explicitly stated on the ballot paper or not. The only way I can see that changing is a new general election with a pro-Remain or pro-free movement of people etc party winning. But that party doesn't even exist at the moment.
Same, I am looking to leave England and move back to Scotland.
What's the Norway Model?
We haven't left yet and won't be till 2 years, then we're in the unknown.
I'm glad you have that option.
The company I work for has supply chains throughout Europe, in the management meeting yesterday it was clearly stated that unless the pound recovers & we somehow negotiate access tot he common market costs will rise and they can't all be passed onto the customer which will result in either wage cuts or layoffs.
That's not fantasy thinking that's what WILL happen in our company and likely many across the country.
As an outsider listening before the vote, this is what seemed like the outcome would be, which is why all the experts thought it'd be a stupid decision. It just turns out the Leave voters weren't listening to any experts.
It's in everyone's interest to get this resolved as soon as possible. Economic uncertainty is bad for everyone.
The Tories need to call a leadership election immediately. I'm not even sure if I care who wins, I would prefer it wasn't Gove or Boris though, even if that means Theresa May.
Audioboxer
Member
CharmingCharlie
Member
Yes I know how it works, I know we are still in the EU. I know we haven't activated article 50 yet and until we do it is business as usual and that might not happen till October if it happens then. When I say "left" I am talking symbolically.
As far as the EU are concerned we have left in all but practice. We left the minute the leave side won. We are out, are leaving, we will cease to be a part of the EU. Even if we change our mind it doesn't matter the rest of the EU want us out now.
The only possible way I can see the UK being allowed to stay in the EU now is if we make absolutely HUGE concessions such as giving up many of our vetos. Now clearly that is not going to happen so we are effectively out of the EU, it is just a question of when.
Boy Wander
Member
Ok, so now we can both be civil. I can understand why you're frustrated and upset, but equally I can see why other people were frustrated that they were being cut adrift by government. Honestly, it may not be as bad as you fear. Take a step back and consider other possible outcomes - is your doomsday scenario set in stone? Could the UK government for example, in future offer similar grants given that the UK film industry ha been on the up. Look, I don't know anything much about your area but I wouldn't make any hasty decisions so soon into the new world. In any case, good luck whichever way you decide to go.
D
Deleted member 13876
Unconfirmed Member
A significant amount of people won't be going back to work thanks to this.
MrS
Banned
Mate I love it. Better than 3 IMO #shitbrexiterssay
DS2 is the best of all of them.
ClosingADoor
Member
Except for the people who got fired, are losing their job in the near future or need to move their families abroad to continue their careers. And for the people missing out on EU subsidies. And the ones being uncertain of being able to continue their work in the UK because they are not a citizen.
But sure, monday is back to normal. Do you really believe that?
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