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[jellies_two]

I am tired and lacking ability to read this.

What does it mean?

Italy’s banks are the Achilles Heel of the eurozone financial system. Non-performing loans have ratcheted up to 18pc of total balance sheets as a result the country’s slide into depression after the Lehman crisis.

The interesting aspect to all this is that if this leave "plan" triggers euro financial dominos, in a way it underlines the fragility of the edifice which is at least part of the Brexit platform.
I don't want to see the Europe experiment fail but if it struggles to survive when one member state - not the biggest one, nor the most integrated one - expresses an intention to negotiate their way out to perhaps merely a Norway type status, then what does that say about the EU as it is currently operating? Does it only work when there are not any shocks (regional wars near the borders, GFCs, states whose populations are discontented)?

 

[shinra-bansho]

What does Boris Johnson not being anti immigrant do to change that the vote was driven by xenophobic sentiment?

Why would Paris and Frankfurt want to let London keep their passport outside of the EU?

Who hurts more under WTO rules UK services or German carmakers?

People query your expectations because they seem to assume the UK are in a position of strength. It is not. Regardless of how many wars won and native peoples conquered.

 

[Epsilon-delta]

Welp. We've crashed Italy's bank... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...0bn-bank-rescue-as-first-brexit-domino-falls/

UK will be forced to activate Article 50. The uncertainty is killing the market.

 

[BKK]

Any chance that EU see Brexit as an act of war? Their economy is getting wrecked.

So EU would be the aggressor! No, as a Eurosceptic, I have to say that the EU has acted reasonably fairly until now.

 

[Atrophis]

This year. This fucking year. What the hell is going on. This country is going down the fucking drain. My wife left me a few hours ago. I am totally fucked. Please will someone wake me up and tell me this is just a bad nightmare.

 

[MrHoot]

Welp. We've crashed Italy's bank... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...0bn-bank-rescue-as-first-brexit-domino-falls/

Watch as leavers spin this as "HAHAHA TOLD YOU SO. EU IS SHIT" while the domino continues to to eventually hit back UK

Although credit, they wouldn't be entirely wrong. If the EU is so fragile that the UK leaving is enough to make a meltdown happen, it's not a good show for EU

 

[RangerX]

I'm a remainer and judging from immigrant friends of mine who are very dear to me I just want to know why remainers have a problem with leavers based on Hobbs,Locke,Rosseau and Mills. There seems some legitimate reasoning there.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

UK will be forced to activate Article 50. The uncertainty is killing the market.

The only thing that would stop the uncertainty is if the standing government announced that they were ignoring the referendum, would not be leaving the EU, and would be immediately drafting legislation to safeguard against nonsense like this ever happening again.

 

[Ether_Snake]

The interesting aspect to all this is that if this leave "plan" triggers euro financial dominos, in a way it underlines the fragility of the edifice which is at least part of the Brexit platform.
I don't want to see the Europe experiment fail but if it struggles to survive when one member state - not the biggest one, nor the most integrated one - expresses an intention to negotiate their way out to perhaps merely a Norway type status, then what does that say about the EU as it is currently operating? Does it only work when there are not any shocks (regional wars near the borders, GFCs, states whose populations are discontented)?

Yes, and that's been obvious since 2010 when the Greece crisis started. It's 100% certain that the EU would head towards disintegration without serious reforms, the kind of reforms Germany would never accept.

The only thing that would stop the uncertainty is if the standing government announced that they were ignoring the referendum, would not be leaving the EU, and would be immediately drafting legislation to safeguard against nonsense like this ever happening again.

Not really, as it would embolden some pro-exit opposition twats and we'd have months of uncertainty, and if they won then back at it all over again.

 

[BKK]

What does Boris Johnson not being anti immigrant do to change that the vote was driven by xenophobic sentiment?

Because he's actually pro-freedom of movement, which is pretty much the opposite of why most people voted to leave the EU. We assume that he'll become Prime-Minister, so a tricky path for him to follow.

And really, it's not constructive to call people who disagree with you xenobhobes. UK isn't perfect (and a very small minority are xenophobic), but the vast majority isn't.

 

[The Friendly Monster]

Hold on, why is this all about my expectations?

We know that Boris is pro immigration, he was basically against most leaver's views. I never actually got why Boris was so hated amongst left wingers. The only tory who could ever win London, not once, but twice! Yet, it seems that some on the left prefer Cameron to him. It's something that I don't understand. If you thought that Cameron was liberal, wait until you get Boris!

No one, seriously fucking no one in the world thought Cameron was liberal

 

[ricardo_sousa11]

meh

 

[EdwardTeach]

Why would a fucking golf club disallow women in the first place?

lmao

It's kind of like gentleman's clubs. Sometimes men want a place to escape from their wives.

 

[News Bot]

If the EU is so fragile that the UK leaving is enough to make a meltdown happen, it's not a good show for EU

I'd say it's not a good show for capitalism.

 

[MrHoot]

I'd say it's not a good show for capitalism.

That too, sadly. Although for that we are just all collectively fucked

 

[BKK]

No one, seriously fucking no one in the world thought Cameron was liberal

Give him credit where it's due. He legalised gay marriage, against the will of some of his own party. Not even Labour did that,

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Why would a fucking golf club disallow women in the first place?

I work in a golf club and there is hostility towards woman even there in terms of their rights relative to the male members

 

[Hazzuh]

Welp. We've crashed Italy's bank... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...0bn-bank-rescue-as-first-brexit-domino-falls/

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports every single story in the most sensationalist manner possible. If you look at past columns you can find dozens about how Greece or China are weeks away from destroying the global economy. Not saying he's making anything up but I'd take everything he writes with a grain of salt.

 

[SuperSah]

So, do people think this may further pressure for Art. 50?

 

[Izuna]

WW3 might come, and when it does...

I feel like you could have a referendum on going to war with Uber and 52% would vote for it.

 

[BKK]

I work in a golf club and there is hostility towards woman even there in terms of their rights as opposed to male members

Well, they look like idiots, and they've been made to look so on international tv. I think it will be a lot better when they acknowledge (to be fair most member voted to allow women members) that they were wrong, rather than being forced to allow women.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

Well, they look like idiots, and they've been made to look so on international tv. I think it will be a lot better when they acknowledge (to be fair most member voted to allow women members) that they were wrong, rather than being forced to allow women.

Completely agree, its shameful.

FWIW, to be clear, I don't work in the club that got all the media attention, I work at another one.

 

[Deleted member 17706]

So, do people think this may further pressure for Art. 50?

More like further reason to not trigger it. With every passing moment, it becomes clearer and clearer the UK leaving the EU would be a disaster for everyone. Who is going to pull that trigger? Certainly not someone who wishes to continue a career in politics. Certainly not someone who has the best interests of his or her nation at heart.

 

[Breakage]

Can Article 50 be triggered by accident?
I hope it's well guarded.

 

[Peter Ian Staker]

I'd say it's not a good show for capitalism.

That too, but especially the EU.
Post-crisis EU has been a shitshow.

 

[BKK]

Completely agree, its shameful.

FWIW, to be clear, I don't work in the club that got all the media attention, I work at another one.

Yeah, to be fair, I don't want the law to legislate on issues like this. People should just realise what's right or wrong and change themselves. Anyway, the club that we're talking about was so close to changing, maybe when a few more pass away the threshold will be broken!

Also maybe this should be a warning to some of "careful what you wish for". When we lock change behind a "multiple lock" we may be stuck with something that we don't wish for a vey long time.

 

[Arials]

Who is going to pull that trigger?

Has Nigel Fararge recovered from his hang over yet?

 

[Bo-Locks]

Can Article 50 be triggered by accident?
I hope it's well guarded.

I know you're joking but the Guardian said that it can be triggered by a formal statement / document by the PM and that Cameron should think carefully about what he says at the summit.

 

[darkwing]

So, do people think this may further pressure for Art. 50?

not really, no one has the balls to invoke Article 50

 

[Zaph]

Yeah, to be fair, I don't want the law to legislate on issues like this. People should just realise what's right or wrong and change themselves. Anyway, the club that we're talking about was so close to changing, maybe when a few more pass away the threshold will be broken!

Huh, that's an odd statement. You don't want the law interfering with issues like sexist practices? We should just wait it out?

What other discrimination should we wait for people to find their own moral compass for? Homophobia? Racism?

 

[D4Danger]

I know you're joking but the Guardian said that it can be triggered by a formal statement / document by the PM and that Cameron should think carefully about what he says at the summit.

 

[SuperSah]

After this has happened in Italy, I do wonder if the EU will change their tune in this summit?

What do you guys think?

Maybe from their now calmed down stance of 'get out' to 'really, get the fuck out'.

 

[BKK]

I know you're joking but the Guardian said that it can be triggered by a formal statement / document by the PM and that Cameron should think carefully about what he says at the summit.

The council have already clarified, they need a formal statement. Merkel has said there's no need to rush, but they can't wait forever. Tories have just accelerated their leadership plan .... by September 2nd. I think that everybody is happy with the current timetable.

 

[Peter Ian Staker]

not really, no one has the balls to invoke Article 50

They have to make clear if and when it will be invoked soon.

 

[Dr.Acula]

Watch as leavers spin this as "HAHAHA TOLD YOU SO. EU IS SHIT" while the domino continues to to eventually hit back UK

Although credit, they wouldn't be entirely wrong. If the EU is so fragile that the UK leaving is enough to make a meltdown happen, it's not a good show for EU

Like you point out the dominoes will hit the UK back.

There's no doubt the UK and the EU will be fine (if both split and maintain their configurations -no Frexit, no Scottish independence) in the long haul, the real question is, will the UK be stronger in 20 years having exited compared to if they had stayed?

 

[BKK]

Huh, that's an odd statement. You don't want the law interfering with issues like sexist practices? We should just wait it out?

What other discrimination should we wait for people to find their own moral compass for? Homophobia? Racism?

It's a difficult area. Technically it's a private members club. By law (in the UK) we allow female only clubs, gentlemen's clubs, and I would assume clubs by whatever people wish to associate with. I would rather that most people of whatever club decided to let anybody in, but I'm uncomfortable with the government deciding who we are allowed to associate with. But yes, if people have a club like this which is a big benefit to the community, but they disallow certain members, then maybe we'll have to change the law. I would rather they changed theirselves, but it could lead to other issues such as opening up women only clubs to men.

But for private clubs who only want gay men, black women etc? I feel uncomfortable in banning such things, and would prefer people to realise themselves.

 

[Deleted member 13876]

I know you're joking but the Guardian said that it can be triggered by a formal statement / document by the PM and that Cameron should think carefully about what he says at the summit.

So it's like that episode of Yu Yu Hakusho.

 

[axisofweevils]

According to this article, it's even harder to pass. Requiring to go through both houses then a royal assent. https://aberdeenunilaw.wordpress.co...e-an-article-50-notification-to-leave-the-eu/

 

[SuperSah]

According to this article, it's even harder to pass. Requiring to go through both houses then a royal assent. https://aberdeenunilaw.wordpress.co...e-an-article-50-notification-to-leave-the-eu/

Royal Assent is no issue as the Queen is pretty much 'obliged' to say 'yeah sure, I accept'. The king/queen has not rejected any bill for hundreds of years.

By the sounds of the Commons debate, it'd pass that but unsure about the Lords.

 

[BKK]

According to this article, it's even harder to pass. Requiring to go through both houses then a royal assent. https://aberdeenunilaw.wordpress.co...e-an-article-50-notification-to-leave-the-eu/

That's normal ... I wouldn't say hard, as the upper house is unelected, the lower house can force it through. I'm not a constitutional expert, but royal assent? Surely that's just normal, it's her majesty's government. She always passes it.

 

[ReplacementPelican]

Welp. We've crashed Italy's bank... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...0bn-bank-rescue-as-first-brexit-domino-falls/

Worst thing is that I've seen Leave supporters spin things such as this into 'look how weak the Euro is! So glad we're out of the EU'.

 

[BKK]

Royal Assent is no issue as the Queen is pretty much 'obliged' to say 'yeah sure, I accept'. The king/queen has not rejected any bill for hundreds of years.

By the sounds of the Commons debate, it'd pass that but unsure about the Lords.

Thanks, but yeah, if the lords tried to block a referendum of the people? Surely that would be the end of the house of lords?

 

[SuperSah]

Thanks, but yeah, if the lords tried to block a referendum of the people? Surely that would be the end of the house of lords?

Also, under the Parliaments Act 1911/1949, the HoC can actually push a Bill past the HoL if it has been delayed up to a year or they refuse accept its amendments twice.

It's a hotly contested area of constitutional and administrative Law - why should the HoC have power to push a through and the HoL lose its primacy?

P.S - I've just finished a module on this area of Law for my degree, so it should be fairly accurate.

Basically: HoC can overrule HoL even if they disagree and HoL rejects it, and then the Queen is 100% guaranteed to give her assent.

 

[BKK]

Worst thing is that I've seen Leave supporters spin things such as this into 'look how weak the Euro is! So glad we're out of the EU'.

Winners and losers, don't fall into the trap reading into the economic data as being overall positive or negative. The reason that the FTSE 100 hasn't changed much is because cartain businesses are forcast to do well, others to do poorly. Overall it's judged to even out at the moment.

Weak pound will hurt importers, benefit exporters. Overall, it's pretty good for our trade balance (short term). The funny thing is, there was a race to the bottom (who could make their currency the weakest) so an agreement was made (no-one intentionally weakens their currency). Well, we managed to break that agreement without even trying. I would say that in the short term at least, a weak pound is a huge benefit to the economy.

 

[SugarDave]

I don't know if I can bear listening to another person try and defend their leave vote by essentially saying nothing more than "I thought fuck it in the moment".

 

[Izuna]

Dear Leave voter, when you see the Sterling fall so hard, do you feel patriotic?

 

[BKK]

Also, under the Parliaments Act 1911/1949, the HoC can actually push a Bill past the HoL if it has been delayed up to a year or they refuse accept its amendments twice.

It's a hotly contested area of constitutional and administrative Law - why should the HoC have power to push a through and the HoL lose its primacy?

P.S - I've just finished a module on this area of Law for my degree, so it should be fairly accurate.

Basically: HoC can overrule HoL even if they disagree and HoL rejects it, and then the Queen is 100% guaranteed to give her assent.

Thanks, it's really interesting. Especially as we don't really have a constitution, and our law is based on common law. I'm certainly not an expert on this, so appreciate your interpretation!

 

[jellies_two]

Love the picture they used.

 

[Tyaren]

There's no doubt the UK and the EU will be fine (if both split and maintain their configurations -no Frexit, no Scottish independence) in the long haul, the real question is, will the UK be stronger in 20 years having exited compared to if they had stayed?

Wait a sec, why no Scottish independence? If there's no other way for them to stay in the EU than seceding, they should have the right to do so. They overwhelmingly voted for the EU and dragging them out against their will and against assurances in the first Scottish referendum is just plain wrong and definitely not "fine". D: I have a Scottish friend who actually voted against independence in the first referendum but is so distraught to be dragged out of the EU by England that he has definitely changed his stance now. So has his family.

 

[s_mirage]

Wait a sec, why no Scottish independence? If there's no other way for them to stay in the EU than seceding, they should have the right to do so. They overwhelmingly voted for the EU and dragging them out against their will and against assurances in the first Scottish referendum is just plain wrong. D: I have a Scottish friend who actually voted against independence in the first referendum but is so distraught to be dragged out of the EU by England that he has definitely changed his stance now. So has his family.

They still don't get to stay in the EU by breaking away from the UK, nothing has changed in that regard since the independence referendum. They might get back in at some point but not for some time. The Scottish government's best option is explore every avenue to prevent Brexit from happening.