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The UK votes to leave the European Union

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Alx

Member
Merkel's speech mostly reiterates things she has already said, but she added that while relations with the UK will be kept close, they'll be at a disadvantage compared to member states and that it won't be able to cherry-pick privileges like getting access to the single market without adopting the four basic freedoms of the internal market. She also once again acknowledged that the UK is not ready to invoke article 50 due to its internal crisis, but insisted that there will be no negotiations without it and that they better get on with it, for their own good.

I get the feeling we're playing good cop/bad cop here.
France and other rmembers of the EU : "UK needs to trigger article 50 ASAP ! We'll force your hand if we have to !"
Germany : "naaah, don't be mean, we know they're in trouble, give them time... but you know UK, it's really better if you trigger article 50 ASAP... "
 

liquidtmd

Banned
Boris Johnson is relying on the element of surprise. Merkel will never take him for a serious negotiator, untill it's too late! HAHA!

Boris' next Press Conference

bOpiomU.gif
 

Palculator

Unconfirmed Member
I get the feeling we're playing good cop/bad cop here.
France and other rmembers of the EU : "UK needs to trigger article 50 ASAP !"
Germany : "naaah, don't be mean, we know they're in trouble, give them time... but you know UK, it's really better if your trigger article 50 ASAP... "
That's actually a comparison I've seen Sky News use earlier this morning, lol.
 

Shito

Member
I get the feeling we're playing good cop/bad cop here.
France and other rmembers of the EU : "UK needs to trigger article 50 ASAP !"
Germany : "naaah, don't be mean, we know they're in trouble, give them time... but you know UK, it's really better if your trigger article 50 ASAP... "
Merkel only wants to give UK time so they are getting more and more desesperate to accept the EEA deal.
It's to the EU best interests and this is exactly what they were wishing for for so long: get rid of the UK at the EU table, but keep access to their economy.
 
I'm kinda looking forward to what Nige will have to say in a minute.

No No No, let me speak.





Merkel only wants to give UK time so they are getting more and more desesperate to accept the EEA deal.
It's to the EU best interests and this is exactly what they were wishing for for so long: get rid of the UK at the EU table, but keep access to their economy.

That's rather callous, you realise there are many many (!) genuine Europeans in the EP.
 

Slaythe

Member
I think it will be the Norway deal Merkel knows we don't want to really leave it was a huge fuck up . They will take some banks keep it functioning trade with us we can pursue others but we will never be allowed to influence them again. We will pay for privilege. EU citizens and Uk can move around . Special favour for Scotland and London.

Either way my future is not in this country

I think you are extremely underestimating how much negativity this whole thing has created.

I don't see EU doing any favor to the UK.

The fact that the UK allowed this to happen and the fact that UK people voted for it, nah.
They're gonna be made an example.
 

Biggzy

Member
I think it will be the Norway deal Merkel knows we don't want to really leave it was a huge fuck up . They will take some banks keep it functioning trade with us we can pursue others but we will never be allowed to influence them again. We will pay for privilege. EU citizens and Uk can move around . Special favour for Scotland and London.

Either way my future is not in this country

In the words of Nick Clegg, "a miserable little compromise."
 

seb

Banned
Everyone on Facebook, even those who know their shit politically and were staunchly pro-Remain, reacting with more ferocity to the fucking football team having a bad game. It's maddening.

I'm in France and medias have already moved on to "England is out of the EU and it's not Cameron fault this time, hahah". The Brexit is yesterday news, it's crazy.
Thank god (evilore?) for NeoGAF, my most important news source by far (and more reliable than most newspapers too).
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Turning mildly positive actually.

Speaking as a fervent Remain campaigner I am trying hard to build bridges now. And there are good things that can come out of this, even though it is not the way I would have chosen and even though there is a lot of turmoil around.

I was heartened by the performance of the Commons yesterday. It had a sort of end-of-term feel about it, but it is clear that there is no appetite in Parliament for denying the referendum result and it is clear that there is going to be no immediate invocation of Article 50. It was on the whole a grown-up performance on all sides.

So, we are going to leave the EU. Or at least we are going to "leave" the "EU".

It's important I think to recognise that there are genuine arguments on the other side. I don't need to reiterate those from the Remain side as we can see the consequences all around us right now. For the Leave side, it is not so easily dismissed as the Remainers made out. First of all it had a *lot* of voters for whatever reason. Second, the centralising tendencies of the EU that go way beyond what is necessary for free trade - remember the Maastricht Treaty and Black Friday? The In/out Euro thing that bedevilled Blair's first term? The Constitution that Ireland had to vote on twice so they got it "right", that was also rejected in a few other countries and was anyhow shovelled in through the back door? The crises in Greece and Italy? All triggered by EU overreaching.

None of these reflected in the Leave campaign much, and it is sad that it has triggered so much racism - or in part been triggered by it. It is even sadder that to some extent everyone is seeking someone else to blame, be it Corbyn or Cameron or old people or young people - everybody but the Scots. We have somehow to deal with that.

The political turmoil we have in the UK has been long needed. Our political alignments are based on and ossified in the industrial relations of the immediate post-war era and it is about time they had a bloody big shake-up. There's going to be some serious thinking in other Euro countries as well.

I'm glad that we have not been kneejerked into invoking Art 50, I'm glad that Chancellor Merkel is being calm and playing the long game, I'm glad that Tak3n hung around this thread despite brickbats (and being from Boston does help understand his views). I'm glad I can still talk sensibly to my customers about what is going on - unless there are Remainers and Leavers in the shop at the same time, in which case I divert the conversation!).

And I'm getting more politically involved and I hope a lot of other people are too.

Mildly positive.

That's a lot better than the immediate shock and despair of, what, only four days ago.


The central tenets of the leave campaign were 'immigrants out' and 'take back control'. I'm trying to work out how they'd get either of those in any meaningful measure, without entirely fucking everything over.

I can only see two realistic options
1) we do a Norway. Can't see the EU allowing too much flexibility so lets say we keep the financial services passporting, and we get free trade. Lovely. But we'll have to take workers rights and the surrounding regulations. These are good and protect us, but it starts to erode the whole 'take back control' part. We'll also have to allow free movement of EU nationals. Which undermines the 'immigrants out' bit. And we get no vote, and probably pay more.

So we'd be in a slightly worse position than we are now (more money, less influence) *and* not deliver what the leave campaign wants. Maybe they can somehow spin it to fool people that we now have control but I don't see how.

2) Immigrants out and take back control. We do these things. Lovely, leave is happy. We're our own little island again. Well good luck getting any kind of trade deal with the EU within 5 years, if ever. London will be put on the back of a boat and ferried across to Germany, the big manufacturing plants will shut up shop and migrate to the mainland too and we can wave goodbye to the disproportionate inward investment we get now - because that is primarily coming to get access to the European market as a whole, not just the UK.


I just can't square the circle.
 
Why are they giving him a platform? He wanted to leave, don't let him speak there for fucks sake.

He's still a regular MEP (is he head of his group?) so of course he can speak.

He really should no longer care about how the EU progresses after a brexit, but he cannot help himself.
 

cyberheater

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Does anyone honestly think our government will be able to out negotiate Mrs Merkel?

Nope. We are now at the mercy of the Eurozone if we want access to the single market.

I have to put some blame on the remain campaign. They really should have done a better job of explaining the nightmare that would follow a leave vote.
 
Nope. We are now at the mercy of the Eurozone if we want access to the single market.

I have to put some blame on the remain campaign. They really should have done a better job of explaining the nightmare that would follow a leave vote.

More project fear might not have gone down that well.
 
Did Farage just said "Germany would be much more hurt than us, they need to sell cars in the uk"...Yeah, cuz English cars are great :D Or the UK people will stop using cars altogether, I wonder who made the mercedes he probably rides..
 

Hasney

Member
He's still a regular MEP (is he head of his group?) so of course he can speak.

He really should no longer care about how the EU progresses after a brexit, but he cannot help himself.

I just think that other MEPs could have things on their mind. It just winds me up so much when they had some other UKIP MEP on the local politics show on Sunday and she said she was still going to be in the European parliament and collect her wage... Even though she never shows up to vote or anything. Just piss off already since you don't like it.
 
He's still a regular MEP (is he head of his group?) so of course he can speak.

He really should no longer care about how the EU progresses after a brexit, but he cannot help himself.

I think that's where Nige and the UK electorate really take a different path to one another. Farage hates the EU, it's an all-consuming passion, whereas I suspect most people 'like a bit of this, don't like this'. He's delighted at the referendum result, for the UK, but also, I suspect, because it throws more problems the way of the EU. I'd almost be unsurprised if he, once retired, waved placards outside EU HQ.
 

Tak3n

Banned
You're really going to have to back up that "both sides" if you expect it to be taken seriously

Article 50 (David Cameron was quite clear he would invoke it as soon as the referendum was done)

Punishment Budget (Osbourne within weeks of vote)

2 that come to mind
 

Chinner

Banned
The central tenets of the leave campaign were 'immigrants out' and 'take back control'. I'm trying to work out how they'd get either of those in any meaningful measure, without entirely fucking everything over.

I can only see two realistic options
1) we do a Norway. Can't see the EU allowing too much flexibility so lets say we keep the financial services passporting, and we get free trade. Lovely. But we'll have to take workers rights and the surrounding regulations. These are good and protect us, but it starts to erode the whole 'take back control' part. We'll also have to allow free movement of EU nationals. Which undermines the 'immigrants out' bit. And we get no vote, and probably pay more.

So we'd be in a slightly worse position than we are now (more money, less influence) *and* not deliver what the leave campaign wants. Maybe they can somehow spin it to fool people that we now have control but I don't see how.

2) Immigrants out and take back control. We do these things. Lovely, leave is happy. We're our own little island again. Well good luck getting any kind of trade deal with the EU within 5 years, if ever. London will be put on the back of a boat and ferried across to Germany, the big manufacturing plants will shut up shop and migrate to the mainland too and we can wave goodbye to the disproportionate inward investment we get now - because that is primarily coming to get access to the European market as a whole, not just the UK.


I just can't square the circle.
Don't forget with option 1 that we'll pay into the EU and we will not get any of the grants. Sorry Cornwall!
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Nope. We are now at the mercy of the Eurozone if we want access to the single market.

I have to put some blame on the remain campaign. They really should have done a better job of explaining the nightmare that would follow a leave vote.

They provide tons of information. But it was only ever presented on the news as soundbites, followed (for balance of course) by the leave campaign response, which was usually Farage or BoJo going 'harumph' and dismissing it without any counter argument.
 

Biggzy

Member
Nope. We are now at the mercy of the Eurozone if we want access to the single market.

I have to put some blame on the remain campaign. They really should have done a better job of explaining the nightmare that would follow a leave vote.

Instead it was the leave camp who were bringing up Norway and Switzerland as to why we can survive outside the EU. Of course, they failed to mention that this solves none of the issues that the leave camp has with the EU.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Don't forget with option 1 that we'll pay into the EU and we will not get any of the grants. Sorry Cornwall!

exactly - our net contribution will go up massively. We'd actually negotiated some decent cashback deals previously - probably allowed just to get us to shut the fuck up.
 
Instead it was the leave camp who were bringing up Norway and Switzerland as to why we can survive outside the EU. Of course, they failed to mention that this solves none of the issues that the leave camp has with the EU.

Yup. It's fucking hilarious. Or tragic.

'Oh, that groundswell of anti-free movement of people? Of anti-EU meddling? Nothing to do with us. We advocated a Swiss or Norwegian model all along. Nothing to do with us.'
 

Metal B

Member
So, we are going to leave the EU. Or at least we are going to "leave" the "EU".

It's important I think to recognise that there are genuine arguments on the other side. I don't need to reiterate those from the Remain side as we can see the consequences all around us right now. For the Leave side, it is not so easily dismissed as the Remainers made out. First of all it had a *lot* of voters for whatever reason. Second, the centralising tendencies of the EU that go way beyond what is necessary for free trade - remember the Maastricht Treaty and Black Friday? The In/out Euro thing that bedevilled Blair's first term? The Constitution that Ireland had to vote on twice so they got it "right", that was also rejected in a few other countries and was anyhow shovelled in through the back door? The crises in Greece and Italy? All triggered by EU overreaching.
That's a lot better than the immediate shock and despair of, what, only four days ago.
Things always get better, if you start to building you're own reality. A normal way of humans to deal with a bad situation.

The EU needs to change some part, but i'm all in for the EU slowly becoming an United Staates of Europe, which will more powerful then any nation can be on its own against giants like the US, China or Russia. Instead of holding on some past idea of nationalism.
 

Biggzy

Member
Did Farage just said "Germany would be much more hurt than us, they need to sell cars in the uk"...Yeah, cuz English cars are great :D Or the UK people will stop using cars altogether, I wonder who made the mercedes he probably rides..

Oh what's that! I think it reads 'EU Financial Services Passport.'
 

Shito

Member
That's rather callous, you realise there are many many (!) genuine Europeans in the EP.
Oh I'm not questionning that, none at all. But the fact is that the UK governement has always been a thorn in the foot of the EU, that had to deal with their "special views" of being part of it but without reaaaally being part of it.
Make no mistake: that vote is 110% in favour of the EU, and they are not all pushing the UK to act on the Article 50 for nothing.

Just read a French article about that sharing this point: the UK basically just sacrificed themselves for the greater good of the EU.
 
I get the feeling we're playing good cop/bad cop here.
France and other rmembers of the EU : "UK needs to trigger article 50 ASAP ! We'll force your hand if we have to !"
Germany : "naaah, don't be mean, we know they're in trouble, give them time... but you know UK, it's really better if you trigger article 50 ASAP... "

The way I see it this is just Merkel being Merkel in that she always tends to go for a "no drama" approach and favors a more sober and conciliatory tone compared to some of her colleagues. When you boil it down, she's not really saying anything different from what Juncker, Schulz, Hollande, etc. are saying. It was the same last year during the escalation of the Greece crisis.

We haven't seen the real bad cop for now, by the way. Playing "bad cop" would mean letting Wolfgang Schäuble off the leash.
 

Protome

Member
Article 50 (David Cameron was quite clear he would invoke it as soon as the referendum was done)

Punishment Budget (Osbourne within weeks of vote)

2 that come to mind

Article 50 will be invoked the moment there is a PM.

The "punishment budget" wasn't complete bullshit, it was just Osbourne warning about what the next budget will need to be.
 

Moosichu

Member
Article 50 (David Cameron was quite clear he would invoke it as soon as the referendum was done)

Punishment Budget (Osbourne within weeks of vote)

2 that come to mind

I guess the difference is. One side lied about what they would do. The other side lied about what would happen.

Also, it's worth pointing out, the remain campaign distanced themselves from the punishment budget as soon as it was revealed. The leave campaign embraced the lies with open arms.
 

Hasney

Member
Article 50 will be invoked the moment there is a PM.

The "punishment budget" wasn't bullshit, it was just Osbourne warning about what the next budget will need to be.

Yeah, the "punishment budget" would be handy to do now to balance the books, but he just can't invoke it without support. Money will just be lost until the next official budget, but it can be handled and will probably be best since we'll see at least a more stable position.
 

StayDead

Member
It's more that the EU doesn't want to be used as an excuse. Having pre-article 50 negotiations then going "Oh man, the EU are really gonna fuck us if we leave. I guess we shouldn't" allows MPs to try and shift the blame to the EU if they decide to ignore the electorate and keep us in the EU.

Forcing the MPs to have to accept the choice and the blame themselves will only help further instability grow which scares the fuck out of anyone else who wants to leave the EU.

This is what worries me more than anything. If there's one thing MPs in this country never do it's accept responsibility. Hopefully they do and we stay though.
 
Did Farage just said "Germany would be much more hurt than us, they need to sell cars in the uk"...Yeah, cuz English cars are great :D Or the UK people will stop using cars altogether, I wonder who made the mercedes he probably rides..
Ironic that a man with a German wife and two children with her who are bi-lingual (German speaking) thinks he's stuffing Germany with this bilge.

Isn't he stuffing his family also?
 
The central tenets of the leave campaign were 'immigrants out' and 'take back control'. I'm trying to work out how they'd get either of those in any meaningful measure, without entirely fucking everything over.

I can only see two realistic options
1) we do a Norway. Can't see the EU allowing too much flexibility so lets say we keep the financial services passporting, and we get free trade. Lovely. But we'll have to take workers rights and the surrounding regulations. These are good and protect us, but it starts to erode the whole 'take back control' part. We'll also have to allow free movement of EU nationals. Which undermines the 'immigrants out' bit. And we get no vote, and probably pay more.

So we'd be in a slightly worse position than we are now (more money, less influence) *and* not deliver what the leave campaign wants. Maybe they can somehow spin it to fool people that we now have control but I don't see how.

2) Immigrants out and take back control. We do these things. Lovely, leave is happy. We're our own little island again. Well good luck getting any kind of trade deal with the EU within 5 years, if ever. London will be put on the back of a boat and ferried across to Germany, the big manufacturing plants will shut up shop and migrate to the mainland too and we can wave goodbye to the disproportionate inward investment we get now - because that is primarily coming to get access to the European market as a whole, not just the UK.


I just can't square the circle.

Option 1 is the only viable "leave" option, otherwise our economy is irrevocably fucked. Thing is, as you say, we still have migration, we still have to contribute to EU budget and instead of taking back control we have less control as we will have to abide by EU regulations that we will no longer have any input on (i.e no "control" over).
 
So, on the EU forcing referendum results. This sounds, on paper, hideous, and I can quite see why people would be enraged by it.

What I don't get is that, and I'm speaking in layman simpleton terms here, is how the EU magically forces a population to vote the right way a year or so after rejecting something - at a time where you'd think there'd be resentment about such a vote. This leads me to do some reading, and it seems the proposals were usually (not sure about always) altered significantly before being presented to the electorate again.

Now, this leads me to a broader idea: the EU is seeking to act by its mandate, which is drawn from the pre-EU structures, I guess (as a guiding 'mission statement'). Thus it generates new treaties, nations reject/accept, they're tweaked, nations reject/accept, etc etc. So the 'undemocratic' thing is that in trying to achieve this mission statement, it continually attempts to move in a certain direction - towards greater integration (but not, necessarily, towards total sublimation - I guess that depends on who you ask) - and so it appears as an inexorable force, even as it does make significant concessions to respective member states, and offers benefits too. So it offers democracy, but in such a way as to generate lots of tension between various democratic objectives..bla bla bla

Is that accurate, anyone? I'm thinking it through as I type.
 

*Splinter

Member
I guess the difference is. One side lied about what they would do. The other side lied about what would happen.

Also, it's worth pointing out, the remain campaign distanced themselves from the punishment budget as soon as it was revealed. The leave campaign embraced the lies with open arms.
That's an incredible level of spin. Really, bravo.
 

liquidtmd

Banned
Option 1 is the only viable "leave" option, otherwise our economy is irrevocably fucked. Thing is, as you say, we still have migration, we still have to contribute to EU budget and instead of taking back control we have less control as we will have to abide by EU regulations that we will no longer have any input on (i.e no "control" over).

This cannot be said enough.

This is exactly why there NEEDS to be a Second Ref either approving this Option or VOTING REMAIN.

There is no other choice that is based in the realms of reality.
 

Biggzy

Member
I would also like to point out that the EU will not be punishing Britain for leaving the EU by stipulating that we have to accept the 'four pillars' in order to access the single market. That is the basis of the single market - it is much more than about tariffs as a lot of people think - why should the UK get exemptions?
 

Tak3n

Banned
Article 50 will be invoked the moment there is a PM.

The "punishment budget" wasn't complete bullshit, it was just Osbourne warning about what the next budget will need to be.

No, he was quite clear, vote leave and it triggers article 50......not vote leave and we will discuss what to do about article 50
 

Protome

Member
This is what worries me more than anything. If there's one thing MPs in this country never do it's accept responsibility. Hopefully they do and we stay though.

They get the blame either way. I don't think there's any chance of them ignoring the referendum result but if they did it'd obviously be incredibly unpopular and lose them a ton of support. When they accept it and invoke article 50 and in a few years the whole country is a shitshow, again they get the blame because "Yeah, but it was the voter's fault" is an even more unpopular stance to take.

No, he was quite clear, vote leave and it triggers article 50......not vote leave and we will discuss what to do about article 50

And it will trigger Article 50, the moment there is someone in place to trigger it. He resigned, it's not his problem anymore. Saying the referendum triggers it was never meant to be "I'll do it right away" it was meant to be "If my successor doesn't, it makes it him look like a complete twat."
 

Tak3n

Banned
I guess the difference is. One side lied about what they would do. The other side lied about what would happen.

Also, it's worth pointing out, the remain campaign distanced themselves from the punishment budget as soon as it was revealed. The leave campaign embraced the lies with open arms.

Yeah, TBF I was really proud of how parliament rounded on Osbourne, and ruined his career in one threat, was pleased to see that no matter what side you were threatening to financially punish people if they dont vote remain was treated with contempt

I also appreciate people will now say he was right
 

Hasney

Member
No, he was quite clear, vote leave and it triggers article 50......not vote leave and we will discuss what to do about article 50

As Boris and Gove are showing, Conservative politicians are just pussies. Hide away from the responsibility and just let someone else deal with it. It's the Tory way™
 

*Splinter

Member
Y'know, if we do end up ignoring the referendum (or even holding a 2nd), this will have dramatically shaken up both major parties, ended several careers at the top of our government, AND potentially forced Europe to reexamine it's purpose and direction. I think at this point it might even have hurt those "evil bankers" more than everyone else? (Even if this is true now, it obviously won't be for long)

If this really was a protest vote, that's kind of successful, no?

I'm aware that Leave voters are unlikely to see it that way, mind.
 
To quote another forum:

My hope is that David Cameron comes out of the meeting today brandishing piles of paper. "Guys, I've got this. I got in there and reminded Johnny Foreigner just who won the war! They've agreed to slash our EU contributions from £350 million a week to just £280. We're out of the Schengen agreement so we now control our borders. I've introduced 34 chapters Turkey have to complete before they can even join the EU, and, this is the best bit, I've demanded the right to veto it and we have got that right. I've also demanded that we can have bendy bananas, and after ramming one up Juncker's nose we've got it."

Should be enough to please the voters.

roflcopters.
 
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