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[kitch9]

I know it's been said a million times, but planning a referendum in 2017 is basically a 'hey, nobody invest in the UK for 4 years' bill. Especially with this EU US Trade deal coming up.

Not to mention its completely useless, no parliament can bind the next parliament.

You'd be surprised as a new business owner how much EU bullshit you have to sift through just to be able to "comply." I'd hazard a guess a lot of businesses, especially ones who are looking worldwide to trade will find the UK more attractive.

One of my manufacturing suppliers has been in business for over 40 years and they said to me its much harder to do business with ANYONE, never mind abroad thanks to the EUs constant moving of goalposts.

 

[Walshicus]

Better one set of goalposts than twenty-seven.


You're bonkers if you think being outside the EU will boost trade and investment.

 

[PJV3]

At least the left won't be limited by EU free trade rules (if we exit).

We can go wild and paint the town RED.

 

[CyclopsRock]

The EU investment argument sort of reminds me of when I cancelled my last phone contract to move over to Giffgaff's unlimited data sim. The guy trying to stop me from changing asked why I was moving. I said that I wanted unlimited data and I could get it quite cheap elsewhere. The guy said "But I'm looking at your data usage on here and you never hit your limit". I said something along the lines of "well obviously not, you guys charge an arm and a leg if I do!"

Yeah, a lot of our trade is with the EU - because we're in it. That doesn't mean if we were not then we'd simply lose all that trade with nothing to show for it. Being in the EU makes it easier to trade with EU countries and harder to trade with others. Almost all of the countries who are a) in Europe but b) not in the EU have much larger exports to BRIC countries as a proportion of their GDP than we do. If we're to align ourselves anywhere, looking forwards, I'm not sure you need to be "bonkers" to prefer aligning ones trade agreements with the BRIC nations rather than the sick and tried EU countries.

Incidentally, one need not have 27 sets of goal posts. If we left, we could still have agreements with the EU (just like many other countries do, and like the US is negotiating right now). We might not get one, of course. But the remaining 26 countries would still have a single set of goalposts. If they want to stay in their union, so be it.

Despite this post, my mind actually isn't made up on the issue of the EU. But I certainly don't think one has to be "bonkers" to be on any one side of the debate. It's no where near that clear cut.

 

[Acorn]

Despite this post, my mind actually isn't made up on the issue of the EU. But I certainly don't think one has to be "bonkers" to be on any one side of the debate. It's no where near that clear cut.

It depends upon which reasons people either want to be in or out whether they are bonkers or not. There are reasonable arguments for both but we tend to only get the extremes.

 

[kitch9]

Better one set of goalposts than twenty-seven.


You're bonkers if you think being outside the EU will boost trade and investment.

We buy more from the EU then we sell to them. A trade deficit if you will.

You are bonkers to think that they won't want our business anymore.

 

[killer_clank]

At least the left won't be limited by EU free trade rules (if we exit).

We can go wild and paint the town RED.

This is the only reason I'd support leaving the EU. Knowing what these current right wing ideologues would do with it is TERRIFYING to me.

 

[Acorn]

This is the only reason I'd support leaving the EU. Knowing what these current right wing ideologues would do with it is TERRIFYING to me.

Well we already know first on the agenda is employment rigthts in the forthcoming meetings with the EU. So we are already fucked anyway. Labour wouldn't change a thing either as they've learned nothing from New Labour.

Oh and the Lib Dems will just poodle with whoever happens to be in power.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Well we already know first on the agenda is employment rigthts in the forthcoming meetings with the EU. So we are already fucked anyway. Labour wouldn't change a thing either as they've learned nothing from New Labour.

Oh and the Lib Dems will just poodle with whoever happens to be in power.

But legislation is a nationalised industry You want to see it outsourced?

 

[Walshicus]

But legislation is a nationalised industry You want to see it outsourced?

Is it outsourcing when a Sussexman lets England legislate for him? We ARE the EU.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Is it outsourcing when a Sussexman lets England legislate for him? We ARE the EU.

That is "outsourcing", yes, though I was having a joke. You will, however, struggle to find someone more localist than I am.

And if we ARE the EU, I'm sure we'll keep instating pro-worker legislation if we leave, right?

 

[PJV3]

That is "outsourcing", yes, though I was having a joke. You will, however, struggle to find someone more localist than I am.

And if we ARE the EU, I'm sure we'll keep instating pro-worker legislation if we leave, right?

It will vary, at the moment it's a fairly conservative country, but were running out of bogeyman and then the pendulum will eventually swing leftwards(could take a bloody long time mind).

 

[CyclopsRock]

It will vary, at the moment it's a fairly conservative country, but were running out of bogeyman and then the pendulum will eventually swing leftwards(could take a bloody long time mind).

Hmm, I'm not sure about that. I don't know any aspect of our society that makes me think the average worker will welcome reforms like those telling them how many hours they can work. My experience of low pay work was that people were trying to get as many shifts as they could, not trying to palm them off to others.

I just don't see anything in the UK that suggests the kindling of a left-ward movement towards greater worker rights or a re-alignment of society (with regards to ownership of capital or whatever whatever). Even house prices have gone down almost everywhere (London, you beautiful bastard, being the exception) which I'd have said, 5 years ago, might have been cause for the next generation to want to really shift things up.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Disappointing set of unemployment figures. 15,000 jobs lost for the quarter, but that's lower than last time around so there are some signs of improvement. The headline rate went down, but that is because the participation rate went down rather than any real recovery.

In other news, the Bank has raised its near term growth forecast to 0.5% for next quarter which is just 0.1% off the trend rate for the UK from 1997-2007. Merve the swerve also highlights much of what you guys already know it you've read my posts, oil and gas output falls and poor construction are largely responsible for the weak GDP figures, without the effect of those two sectors GDP would have been +1.5% in 2012, which also explains why employment grew so fast last year even though there was little to no headline GDP growth.

 

[Volotaire]

I've got to say Nick Clegg seems to be really on the offensive today.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Disappointing set of unemployment figures. 15,000 jobs lost for the quarter, but that's lower than last time around so there are some signs of improvement. The headline rate went down, but that is because the participation rate went down rather than any real recovery.

In other news, the Bank has raised its near term growth forecast to 0.5% for next quarter which is just 0.1% off the trend rate for the UK from 1997-2007. Merve the swerve also highlights much of what you guys already know it you've read my posts, oil and gas output falls and poor construction are largely responsible for the weak GDP figures, without the effect of those two sectors GDP would have been +1.5% in 2012, which also explains why employment grew so fast last year even though there was little to no headline GDP growth.

I've heard from various (Fairly public) sources that George and the boys genuinely believe that the economy will start picking up in a significant way at around the end of the summer, and they seem fairly confident about this. Do you have any reason to think that the Treasury might be right in this belief?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I've heard from various (Fairly public) sources that George and the boys genuinely believe that the economy will start picking up in a significant way at around the end of the summer, and they seem fairly confident about this. Do you have any reason to think that the Treasury might be right in this belief?

It's certainly a possibility. Our own internal forecasting model says that UK growth has returned to just below trend rate and some of our indicators support the Treasury view, but it really depends on what you mean by significant.

Some say the end of summer will be a good period of growth because during the third quarter the North Sea maintenance will come to an end so oil and gas output should rebound quite strongly in that quarter and the one after. A lot of people think the OBR will revise the borrowing forecast down for the first time which would be very welcome news.

Ironically, just when everyone said "plan A" was dead and the IMF said it was time to change direction the economy seems to have come good. I expect there was quite a lot of triumphalism today when the EU growth figures all came out.

 

[Nicktendo86]

It's certainly a possibility. Our own internal forecasting model says that UK growth has returned to just below trend rate and some of our indicators support the Treasury view, but it really depends on what you mean by significant.

Some say the end of summer will be a good period of growth because during the third quarter the North Sea maintenance will come to an end so oil and gas output should rebound quite strongly in that quarter and the one after. A lot of people think the OBR will revise the borrowing forecast down for the first time which would be very welcome news.

Ironically, just when everyone said "plan A" was dead and the IMF said it was time to change direction the economy seems to have come good. I expect there was quite a lot of triumphalism today when the EU growth figures all came out.

What did the EU figures look like compared to us?

Edit: just read about France going back into recession on the BBC. I thought their new President got in on the back of a no more austerity campaign? Has that backfired then? Also just noticed Germany had just 0.1% growth last quarter, things are not as bad here compared to Europe as people think is it?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

What did the EU figures look like compared to us?

Dire.

France double dipped. Germany downrated Q4 to -0.7% and barely escaped their own double dip, the recession in the Netherlands continues unabated and unemployment is over 8%, Italy contracted for the seventh straight quarter, Austria flatlined.

In that respect the British economy is doing much better, but compared to the US we are lagging behind so there is still room for improvement. Especially with our non-EU trade, it's growing, but barely fast enough to keep up with the EU depression.

 

[PJV3]

Hmm, I'm not sure about that. I don't know any aspect of our society that makes me think the average worker will welcome reforms like those telling them how many hours they can work. My experience of low pay work was that people were trying to get as many shifts as they could, not trying to palm them off to others.

I just don't see anything in the UK that suggests the kindling of a left-ward movement towards greater worker rights or a re-alignment of society (with regards to ownership of capital or whatever whatever). Even house prices have gone down almost everywhere (London, you beautiful bastard, being the exception) which I'd have said, 5 years ago, might have been cause for the next generation to want to really shift things up.

There are changes coming, Cash for workers rights, that combined with a potential loss of EU based rights could spell trouble.

Of course we're talking about England, so we could just put up with it and you may be correct.

It all depends upon how things go for the next few years, and the result of the next general election.

 

[Nicktendo86]

Dire.

France double dipped. Germany downrated Q4 to -0.7% and barely escaped their own double dip, the recession in the Netherlands continues unabated and unemployment is over 8%, Italy contracted for the seventh straight quarter, Austria flatlined.

In that respect the British economy is doing much better, but compared to the US we are lagging behind so there is still room for improvement. Especially with our non-EU trade, it's growing, but barely fast enough to keep up with the EU depression.

So basically, look for new markets to trade with as the EU is fucked. And people wonder why UKIP had such a strong showing?

 

[PJV3]

No EU nation can grow by itself, the French are bonkers to go it alone. There is no strategy at all, besides torturing southern Europe.

 

[avaya]

Plan A is dead, it was never alive and was based on fantasy.

Growth will continue to be pitiful going forward.

 

[dalyr95]

No EU nation can grow by itself, the French are bonkers to go it alone. There is no strategy at all, besides torturing southern Europe.

Erm...

Belgium
0.1
Bulgaria - NON €
0.1
Czech Republic - NON €
-0.8
Denmark
:
Germany
0.1
Estonia
-1.0
Ireland
:
Greece
-5.3
Spain
-0.5
France
-0.2
Italy
-0.5
Cyprus
-1.3
Latvia - NON €
1.2
Lithuania - NON €
1.3
Luxembourg
:
Hungary - NON €
0.7
Malta
:
Netherlands
-0.1
Austria
0.0
Poland - NON €
0.1
Portugal
-0.3
Romania - NON €
0.5
Slovenia
:
Slovakia
0.3
Finland
-0.1
Sweden
:
United Kingdom - NON €
0.3

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-15052013-AP/EN/2-15052013-AP-EN.PDF

Some EU countries had growth, only two, Slovakia and Belguim has the Euro.
So stop talking out your arse.

 

[PJV3]

Erm...

Belgium
0.1
Bulgaria - NON €
0.1
Czech Republic - NON €
-0.8
Denmark
:
Germany
0.1
Estonia
-1.0
Ireland
:
Greece
-5.3
Spain
-0.5
France
-0.2
Italy
-0.5
Cyprus
-1.3
Latvia - NON €
1.2
Lithuania - NON €
1.3
Luxembourg
:
Hungary - NON €
0.7
Malta
:
Netherlands
-0.1
Austria
0.0
Poland - NON €
0.1
Portugal
-0.3
Romania - NON €
0.5
Slovenia
:
Slovakia
0.3
Finland
-0.1
Sweden
:
United Kingdom - NON €
0.3

http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-15052013-AP/EN/2-15052013-AP-EN.PDF

Some EU countries had growth, only two, Slovakia and Belguim has the Euro.
So stop talking out your arse.

My fault I badly worded it, I meant a single nation pulling the Eurozone as a whole into a healthy state.

France can declare that Austerity is over, but they are swimming against the tide, the money they spend won't be as effective and they will be vulnerable to the markets.

I'd like to see an easing up towards Greece (longer term approach) and the Eurozone to be more growth focused(for a while at least).

Or end the Euro currency.

 

[CyclopsRock]

It's certainly a possibility. Our own internal forecasting model says that UK growth has returned to just below trend rate and some of our indicators support the Treasury view, but it really depends on what you mean by significant.

Some say the end of summer will be a good period of growth because during the third quarter the North Sea maintenance will come to an end so oil and gas output should rebound quite strongly in that quarter and the one after. A lot of people think the OBR will revise the borrowing forecast down for the first time which would be very welcome news.

Ironically, just when everyone said "plan A" was dead and the IMF said it was time to change direction the economy seems to have come good. I expect there was quite a lot of triumphalism today when the EU growth figures all came out.

Interesting, thanks.

 

[Meadows]

Nadine Dorries, within 2 days of coming back, has already pissed off Tory HQ.

I reckon she'll be thrown out of the party now.

 

[PJV3]

Nadine Dorries, within 2 days of coming back, has already pissed off Tory HQ.

I reckon she'll be thrown out of the party now.

I think they had better ignore her, kicking her out over Europe would send some backbenchers into full on psycho mode.

She could become a UKIP MP for a while to rub it in.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

Nadine Dorries, within 2 days of coming back, has already pissed off Tory HQ.

I reckon she'll be thrown out of the party now.

Unlikely because she will just defect to UKIP and cause all kinds of problems. Better to have her in the tent pissing out than outside pissing in.

 

[PJV3]

Unlikely because she will just defect to UKIP and cause all kinds of problems. Better to have her in the tent pissing out than outside pissing in.

I can see Farage at Westminster welcoming her to the party.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I can see Farage at Westminster welcoming her to the party.

Indeed.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

130 Ayes.

 

[PJV3]

130 Ayes.

They're still not going to let it go, Bone is on about a referendum BEFORE the election.

 

[Arksy]

Your Conservative party is weird.

 

[War Peaceman]

I can see Farage at Westminster welcoming her to the party.

Farage wouldn't - it could potentially upstage him and that cannot be allowed to happen.

 

[Volotaire]

Your Conservative party is weird.

In what way?

 

[Acorn]

They're still not going to let it go, Bone is on about a referendum BEFORE the election.

No chance it happens, but they smell blood in the water and won't let up until the next election.

 

[Jackpot]

So despite a huge increase in profits since the Gulf Oil spill and being at the center of a profit fixing scandal right now, BP wants Cameron to lobby for them to be let off compensating people for the spill.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22549710

 

[zomgbbqftw]

The numbers exist for Cameron's private member's bill to pass if it comes down to a vote. There are enough Labour politicians who will vote with their instincts and ignore the inevitable three line whip from Ed to pass it with around 300 Con, 10-12 Lab+SNP+LD and 5 Unionist votes from NI.

That's why the Lib Dems will fight tooth and nail to deny the private member's bill time to be debated which is going to be politically damaging for the coalition because Clegg will do everything he can to ensure that the bill doesn't get to the stage of a commons vote and Cameron will be quietly egging his backbenchers on because he knows the numbers exist to pass it.

So despite a huge increase in profits since the Gulf Oil spill and being at the center of a profit fixing scandal right now, BP wants Cameron to lobby for them to be let off compensating people for the spill.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22549710

BP can fuck right off. British when it suits them and foreign when it doesn't. That in addition to probably price fixing means they can fuck right off.

 

[Acorn]

So despite a huge increase in profits since the Gulf Oil spill and being at the center of a profit fixing scandal right now, BP wants Cameron to lobby for them to be let off compensating people for the spill.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22549710

Urgh.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

Finally a ray of sunshine http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013...nburgh-pub-for-his-own-safety-after-protests/

 

[CyclopsRock]

There's only one Union you're allowed to leave if you're in Scotland!

 

[Arksy]

Finally a ray of sunshine http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013...nburgh-pub-for-his-own-safety-after-protests/

Hardly. If you oppose Farage this isn't really good news as it will embolden his supporters and drive moderates towards his side.

 

[8bit]

Hardly. If you oppose Farage this isn't really good news as it will embolden his supporters and drive moderates towards his side.

How will people in Scotland rejecting him will drive moderates to their party?

 

[killer_clank]

He was in Edinburgh starting UKIP's campaign for the ABERDEEN Donside by election. Basically sums up UKIP in Scotland. The National Front and some other loonies are standing, so I expect them to top the fruitcake poll, but far behind the rest of the competition. UKIP just aren't wanted here.

 

[PJV3]

FUCKING HELL.

A cabbie that doesn't like Farage, I must be having an episode.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

FUCKING HELL.

A cabbie that doesn't like Farage, I must be having an episode.

Seriously. Today up is down. The sun is blue.

 

[PJV3]

Seriously. Today up is down. The sun is blue.

Scotland, where the cab drivers are commies.

 

[8bit]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/may/16/nigel-farage-edinburgh-protesters-van?CMP=twt_gu

"We've never ever, ever had this kind of response. Is this a kind of anti-English thing? It could be," he said to one reporter.

It wasn't. Not entirely. Many were there to protest at Ukip's stance on immigration and the political backgrounds of Ukip's motley collection of local council candidates; others were there to protest against his party's obscure economic policies. There was no violence, no punches thrown, no missiles lobbed.

Rachel, a young woman in a wheelchair who had wheeled herself on to the Royal Mile to blockade the second taxi Farage tried to take, said simply: "Ukip are just bullshit."

But some were independence campaigners there to remind him of his nationality: after one, standing just a few feet from Farage, invited the Ukip leader to "shove your union jack up your arse", a flustered Farage said: "Clearly this is anti-British, anti-English. They even hate the union jack."

It's an anti-UKIP thing. It's a shame Nigel needs to travel out of middle England to experience it.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Good on you Scotland. This is the response UKIP should be getting everywhere.