We haven't had a single Star Wars movie released yet in the modern massive overseas box-office world. It's hard to predict that compared to domestic. Such as China, China wasn't a big source of box office revenue the last time there was a SW movie at all. But now it is, and Star Wars marathons are shown on the state ran movie channel in China on the Chinese New Years so who knows how huge it could be there.
Wkd Box Office 0501-0315 - The age of Marvel continues...
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We haven't had a single Star Wars movie released yet in the modern massive overseas box-office world. It's hard to predict that compared to domestic. Such as China, China wasn't a big source of box office revenue the last time there was a SW movie at all. But now it is, and Star Wars marathons are shown on the state ran movie channel in China on the Chinese New Years so who knows how huge it could be there.
Movies like this always drop on Saturday because so many people went to see it on the first day possible. It has nothing to do with boxing (Vulture shouldn't assign writers who know nothing about the box office to write about movie grosses) or Thursday night showings. Deathly Hallows 2 fell by over 50% from its first Friday to Saturday, because movies like this are just insanely frontloaded.
Freddy=Legend
Member
Yeah, but James Cameron has a spell over people that nothing else seems to match, His films always have legs. It's tough to really compare anything to his films. Just look at Avatar; does it really look like a movie that would've taken over the box office for as long as it did? I never thought it would, then I ended up seeing it 4 times...
That being said, Star Wars will be massive & with the Holiday boost most films get in Dec. It should dominate that entire month. Even with it getting close to award season, no Oscar film will phase it.
Biggest boost for Star Wars is literally no competition at all for months. Both Warcraft and Mission Impossible were going to release that month too but abandoned the season to avoid Star Wars. If you want to go see a blockbuster movie from late December up until BvS in March it is Star Wars and that is it.
Discotheque
Banned
Its the best use of cgi spectacle too in recent memory . All these marvel films, man of steel, Star Trek 2 etc. all keep hitting us over the head with their explosive and dull final battles (usually a bunch of aerial nonsense and explosions in the background) but none of them were as well done as avatar. They just can't fuck with cameron on the action-front
I like what Star Wars is doing with its trailer tho, that scene with the storm troopers firing looked like a bunch of ppl in suits just flailing about, it gave it a realness that I haven't seen in that series since the OG trilogy
I know you're joking, but this post gave me heartburn. Where's my Pepcid Complete tablets?
The opening weekend for Ultron is fantastic but, as with all big film openings, it isn't the first weekend that's the most important, it's the second. It will also give us an idea of whether Ultron is bringing in the repeat business among the fans that had the first Avengers do such amazing numbers in the US.
I don't expect Ultron to drop massively (TYPO EDIT!) in its second weekend but it'll be the best indicator of where the film will end up. Personally the most interesting question is whether the film can grow in the International marketplace. I predicted that Ultron would gross in 'the same ball park' as the first Avengers film as the US gross would decrease slightly but the International numbers would increase and make up the short fall.
While some at Marvel might be worried that their Avengers sequel couldn't improve upon the first installments opening, and grow its audience, it's really a nice problem to have.
I don't expect Ultron to drop massively (TYPO EDIT!) in its second weekend but it'll be the best indicator of where the film will end up. Personally the most interesting question is whether the film can grow in the International marketplace. I predicted that Ultron would gross in 'the same ball park' as the first Avengers film as the US gross would decrease slightly but the International numbers would increase and make up the short fall.
While some at Marvel might be worried that their Avengers sequel couldn't improve upon the first installments opening, and grow its audience, it's really a nice problem to have.
You think it's going to do another 187M next weekend?
Can Crusher
Banned
Everybody gonna be "oh fuck" if somehow this patty cake shit ends up making like 1.4 bill overseas.
This is a given, if it doesn't then it'll start approaching the disappointment territory.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
First one had about 50% drop off second week right? Usual Marvel drop off is about 60% though, correct?
Thereabouts.
The impressive thing about the first one was that even after the massive record breaking OW, the drop was quite respectable. It was kind of like a double whammy. "The thirst was real" back then.
60.1%
48.1%
47.2%
60.7%
59.4%
50.3%
58.4%
57.3%
56.6%
55.3%
All the drops for every MCU film in order of release.
I do not.
TYPO!
I don't understand how people can say such things. It's far, far too early to make such proclamations.
If you are pulling such nonsensical numbers out of mid air why stop there? Why not have Star Wars gross a billion at the US box office? Or even have it make two billion!
We already have.
Avatar.
MrPink93485
Member
Of course it has to do with Thursday night showings, because the rush factor and Thursday/Midnight screenings are heavily correlated with each other. It also helps though to ease capacity when you have more showings in a day than you normally would otherwise. This is why the Dark Knight for example is mostly flat on Saturday from Friday when you remove midnights, and then it only drops 8.5% on the first Sunday. Capacity is mostly filled so attendance spills over to the next day. The same situation occurred with The Avengers, where it increased on pure Saturday business from Friday once you remove midnights, but then it 'only' drops 18% on Sunday because of capacity issues on Saturday. If Thursday/Midnight screenings didn't exist, then theaters wouldn't have had the ability to actually seat all the people who wanted to see Deathly Hallows Part II on opening day. It would top out around 70 million. And thus, the Saturday number would have been higher than the 42 million it did.
So yes, rush factor is a huge factor as to why the Friday gross will always be bigger than your following Saturday with these types of blockbusters, but it also allows you to fill more seats with your additional showings. The point is, Age of Ultron was always going to drop a hefty percentage from Friday because of the two reasons mentioned above whether it was 20%, or 30%. The fight certainly plays a factor, but there's no way to fully quantify it.
Wont be surprised but don't think it will. It's perfect counter-programming to the other big release on that weekend.
*sigh*
It feels like Mad Max will be this summer's 'Edge Of Tomorrow'. A great film that the wider audience never really connects with but the studio, by sheer force of will, drags the film to $100m or so in the US.
Edge Of Tomorrow opened to $28m and was beaten to the US box office top spot by Fault In Our Stars. A film that it beat at the worldwide box office. The similarities are there.
Hopefully Fury Road can do monster business worldwide..., I'm looking at you China!
Mr. Pointy
Member
It's clear the only way to save the MCU is bring in The Rock.
DCCU already has him. MCU will have to settle for Cena.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Ouch. Who would they cast him as?
Bridging gender marketing by promoting two franchises instead of trying to make one that appeals to both. Or, why you won't find much Black Widow or Scarlett Witch merchandise in a store near you.
Black Adam! I'm too lazy to find the GAF thread.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
John Cena as Black Adam? Is that their DC crossover film? Disney to buy WB now?
Sorry, I realize my original post was a bit vague.
I don't think it'll be that low - if AoU isn't holding onto viewers as well as expected, the action junkies are going to flock to Mad Max.
It's cheebo, he's quite possibly the biggest Star Wars backer on the forum.
Well this is definite proof that the fight significantly impacted Saturday.
Just went tonight at the 7:30 show. Only seats empty were the very first row only.
CassidyIzABeast
Member
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
Empty seats? Uber bomba confirmed the age of Marvel is finally over.
Obliterator
Member
I KNEW IT
When I went today I had to miss the first show I tried to go to because it was sold out, and I arrived 30 minutes early. The next showing that I actually got into also totally sold out. I bet Ultron had a huge Sunday
Age Of Marvel revives, someone create a thread.
BronsonLee
Member
Busty I swear to god if Mad Max bombs I'll tackle you
...But yeah, it really feels like Edge of Tomorrow. The hard R is also worrying, but I love WB having the balls to basically go 'fuck it, here we go'. If there's one thing to thank American Sniper for, it's that.
That explains a lot. And that pic of the stronger Sunday makes sense. You skip Saturday but can watch it Sunday.
I'm aware of the importance of midnight screenings, but I had thought when reading your post (probably mistakenly) that you were claiming that Thursday evening screenings had changed the way things worked compared to just having midnight screenings, as was being argued on the previous page of this thread. My apologies for any misunderstanding.
Mr. Pointy
Member
RDJ owns the top 3 opening weekends.
Also, Furious 7 will probably beat Titanic's non-US total.
Also, Furious 7 will probably beat Titanic's non-US total.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
And there it is
Jesus he looks so young there. And that was only 2008. Of course, he doesn't look 50 now, so he obviously has great genes.
AHA-Lambda
Member
Early estimates suggest that Sunday was underpredicted by about $5M.
If that holds up, we will only see a 11% drop from Saturday to Sunday.
Iron Man 3 dropped 30% on its first Sunday. The Avengers dropped 18%.
I think we will have to wait for the weekday numbers to start gauging legs though. I know Cheebo swears that $500M is dead, but Captain America 2 legs off of a $190M opening would get the film to $520M. The Dark Knight Rises had even better legs than Cap 2, but summer weekdays helped out there.
I don't think $500M is locked (or even likely until we get more data), but it's not dead. Kicking the Phantom Menace out of that #5 domestic spot by hitting $475M is more probable obviously.
Titanic's non-US total is $1.528B, so no. There's next to no chance it will even beat the original $1.242B Titanic earned before the re-release. There's still $150M OS to go. Over half of the overseas business this past week was China, and the China run is going to wrap up really quickly. A week from now it will be making zero dollars as it loses every screen to Avengers. The non-Chinese overseas take this weekend was like $20M.
If that holds up, we will only see a 11% drop from Saturday to Sunday.
Iron Man 3 dropped 30% on its first Sunday. The Avengers dropped 18%.
I think we will have to wait for the weekday numbers to start gauging legs though. I know Cheebo swears that $500M is dead, but Captain America 2 legs off of a $190M opening would get the film to $520M. The Dark Knight Rises had even better legs than Cap 2, but summer weekdays helped out there.
I don't think $500M is locked (or even likely until we get more data), but it's not dead. Kicking the Phantom Menace out of that #5 domestic spot by hitting $475M is more probable obviously.
Titanic's non-US total is $1.528B, so no. There's next to no chance it will even beat the original $1.242B Titanic earned before the re-release. There's still $150M OS to go. Over half of the overseas business this past week was China, and the China run is going to wrap up really quickly. A week from now it will be making zero dollars as it loses every screen to Avengers. The non-Chinese overseas take this weekend was like $20M.
12th BO thread about AoU.
The increase isn't worth a new thread, since it is common knowledge that any opening less than $207,438,708 is shit. I'm surprised that the NYSE still bothers to list Disney stock.
Wall Street Journal is reporting that Pan Am is going for a hostile takeover of Disney by close of market today after its share price plunged.
Yeah, where would they possibly find a role for a muscle bound white male in a comic book movie?
But seriously, Cena would be perfect for US Agent.
Superman00
Liverpool01
People that think the fight had no impact are seriously out of touch. I pass some bars Saturday night and they had freaking lines outside. I pass these bars regularly on the weekend since they are near my gym, so it isn't the usual. Not only that, majority of the people I know watched the fight. Each person that bought the PPV have many others watching it with them. But next weekend should be telling on how the legs will be.
AHA-Lambda
Member
Mad Max screams bomba to me, think it'll be this year's Dredd =/
Oh, it'll bomb hard. But given it's been almost thirty years since the last film, getting a studio to put up a ludicrous amount of money for a cult franchise? That's enough for me. I can't ask for it to actually make a profit.
Yeah, it would be interesting if Fast 7 has switched weekends with Ultron.
The beginning of May is more desirable though as there is a better chance to possibly have legs that go through the whole summer.
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