I'm actually surprised they are even doing an official launch in Japan at all to be honest. At this point it would probably be cheaper to hire out a 3rd party distributor that's local to order based on pre-orders only. So you go into a japanese gaming store or log on to amazon.jp and order a system and games /accessories , then every couple weeks they build and ship out only what was already bought.
Sounds a bit cumbersome but seriously, console gaming has pretty well flat lined in Japan as is and the Xbox brand was never that large over there. First one didn't quite make it to 500K sold after 4 years of shipments. Even the 360 , in spite of how much money was spent getting 3rd party support (even some initially exclusive support to boot) AND the price difference between a 360 and a PS3- the total sales of the 360 only barely surpassed a million units after 7 + years of availability.
Japan is a land where even Sony hasn't surpassed 10 million PS3's sold to date. They are finally getting close but still. Even the Wii , which sold gangbusters the world over saw only a fifth of it's sales come from japan instead of the usual third it accounted for in generations past.
I'm not so sure kinect and HDMI in will do anything to sell systems over there either , not to mention the pricetag.