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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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Wilsongt said:
So shouldn't that mean the GOP should embrace climate change since it's a religion and we know how much the GOP love their religion.
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There are some Conservative Christians who reject the idea of climate change because scientists talk about rising water levels. They believe that God's promise to Noah, that he would never flood the world again, means that climate change and rising water levels are unbiblical.

Forgive me if this makes no sense. I'm slightly drunk, celebrating the fact that I've reached the halfway point on my undergrad dissertation (Homoeroticism in Ancient Literature, FYI).

But Donald Trump is a fucking genius. There will be books written about his campaign, win lose or draw. Look what this man did. He decided to run. He knew he had to find something that no one in the GOP could criticize him on, so he picked illegal immigration. It's pure win/win with the base, and no one can touch him on it, lest they screw up their chances with the base. Then, he leverages his assholeness, which I think is 50% legitimate and 50% faux, to get his name out there. He gets free media time without having to do anything other than insult some people. He ramps up the crazy till he's in the lead, and then he sits on it. He starts actually building a campaign. He's managed to paralyze the party, and Carson has turned into an asset.

Dude's a genius. He really is. He may or may not win the primary, and he definitely would lose the General, but he's managed to be an epic troll without any real harm to his brand.
 
icarus-daedelus said:
I don't get it. Are people still counting on an increasingly improbable collapse of both Carson and Trump at this point just because the idea of either of them winning the primaries seems unpalatable to the establishment - whomever that amounts to, these days?

Because Trump and Carson still seem to be crushing everyone else in the polls and on a grassroots level, Rubio included. When's the last time you saw an excited crowd cheering at a Rubio rally in Iowa or any other state? I don't see the bump from Jeb dropping out being enough to bump Rubio up, even assuming that all backers immediately distribute to the other Floridian establishment guy. Rubio seems like the ideal Republican candidate right now, except that the Republicans don't actually seem to like or want him.
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Rubio's fundraising has also been very lackluster. He seems to get nice bumps in cash after the debates that fall off pretty quickly.

The Koch network is certainly warming to him, but that's obviously more of a benefit to his super PAC than his campaign.
 
GnawtyDog said:
Fox with these fake focus groups pushing for Rubio is pretty low but not surprising. At least Megyn looks hot.
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I'm shocked they included any Trump supporters whatsoever. NY Times ran an article of 12 interviews with Iowans, who were somehow less impressed with Trump after the debate. The media dishonesty is sickening. Nothing gets reported without a slant.
 
GnawtyDog said:
Fox with these fake focus groups pushing for Rubio is pretty low but not surprising. At least Megyn looks hot.
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Fox has been anti-Trump since the beginning. Remember the Luntz group after the first debate?
 
Joey Fox said:
I'm shocked they included any Trump supporters whatsoever. NY Times ran an article of 12 interviews with Iowans, who were somehow less impressed with Trump after the debate. The media dishonesty is sickening. Nothing gets reported without a slant.
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But the Times did find the elusive Jindal voter. You have to be impressed on that.
 
SourShoes said:
I watched the whole thing last night. There were 5 or 6 Trump supporters there, including a Hispanic man and a black woman.
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I know about this one--was just pointing out how Fox started out this cycle. That Luntz group was hilariously planted.
 
Harry Reid has a thing or two to say about Marco Rubio.

“He reminds me of John Edwards,” Reid said, referring to the former senator from North Carolina who flamed out in his run for president. “Not because any of the [personal] stuff."

"John Edwards, when he came to the Senate, man, he was good," Reid said. "He had been called by either [Al] Gore or his people that he was going to be the nominee, or at least that's what he thought, OK? And he called me and told me that. When Gore chose [Joseph] Lieberman, [Edwards] was so fixed on becoming a national figure that his Senate service was basically over. That’s what I see in Marco Rubio.”
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Also:

Told that Rubio had cleaned Bush’s clock in an exchange over Rubio’s poor Senate attendance record, Reid replied, briskly: “I don't think you've got much of a clock to clean there … having Marco Rubio clean Jeb Bush's clock would be like having Greg Maddux pitch to a bunch of high school kids.”
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NKi7MLK.gif


I love this man
 
Plinko said:
I know about this one--was just pointing out how Fox started out this cycle. That Luntz group was hilariously planted.
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Yeah. I've never seen a Frank Luntz group that wasn't an obvious bunch of shills for Fox's establishment support. You can tell that the producers write lines for them to say.

For the past 48 hours, they might as well have changed the name of FNC to Rubio News Channel.
 
Black Mamba said:
I relish the day Cruz drops out or loses...and so much more when he is out of politics. I loathe him to no end...
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Yeah, as much as I dislike Trump and Carson, I think Cruz is still the one I really can't want to see lose the most. I think it's the fact that on the surface, he sounds reasonable when presenting his ideas. Trump is always dialed up to "ranting lunatic", while Carson has the whole sociopathic "Sleepily say something really fucked up, then laugh" thing going.
 
I don't get our Syria strategy, but embedding special forces in northern syria without having a no fly zone, what happens if Russia kills one of our people when bombing "terrorists"?
 
Big Dick foreign policy is the worst.

"Russia just got themselves involved in an unwinnable war that will maybe last a decade? We need to get in on that even more so we don't look weak!"

Just bring in Syrian refugees to help the people affected by this war, the war itself is unwinnable.
 
SourShoes said:
Yeah. I've never seen a Frank Luntz group that wasn't an obvious bunch of shills for Fox's establishment support. You can tell that the producers write lines for them to say.

For the past 48 hours, they might as well have changed the name of FNC to Rubio News Channel.
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Fox will ALWAYS run to the top establishment choice.
 
Carson's campaign is meeting with all the other campaigns to plot a debate strategy. My guess is that Carson will demand the debate moderators to not ask about his association wih Mannatech. Question is, will the news channels yield?

What a bunch of babies. Try wearing diapers in the next debate.
 
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Big Dick foreign policy is the worst.
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Hey. It took a lot of dick to go to china.

Anyway i was auto - sent to this video after the one linked by black republican ended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ll-eEIkrnc
You shouldn't watch this if you don't like to be irritated so early in the morning. In it Ted Cruz is being interviewed by Bret Baier. Ted vociferously complains about how the cnbc debate was hosted by people that weren't conservatives, and so should not have been allowed to moderate. As if that were not moronic enough, he proceeds to whinge on about how the democratic debate was hosted by liberals who showered the candidates with praise and love.
Go ahead and say its his game, he knows his audience, etc but that is blatantly untrue. The fist questions out of anderson cooper's mouth to hillary and sanders both were calculated and vicious.
Blah blah blah fuck ted cruz, I don't hate him because he is conservative. I hate him for his incessant bullshittting
 
RustyNails said:
Carson's campaign is meeting with all the other campaigns to plot a debate strategy. My guess is that Carson will demand the debate moderators to not ask about his association wih Mannatech. Question is, will the news channels yield?

What a bunch of babies. Try wearing diapers in the next debate.
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Yes, because the debate will be hosted by Animal Planet.
 
Retromelon said:
Hey. It took a lot of dick to go to china.

Anyway i was auto - sent to this video after the one linked by black republican ended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ll-eEIkrnc
You shouldn't watch this if you don't like to be irritated so early in the morning. In it Ted Cruz is being interviewed by Bret Baier. Ted vociferously complains about how the cnbc debate was hosted by people that weren't conservatives, and so should not have been allowed to moderate. As if that were not moronic enough, he proceeds to whinge on about how the democratic debate was hosted by liberals who showered the candidates with praise and love.
Go ahead and say its his game, he knows his audience, etc but that is blatantly untrue. The fist questions out of anderson cooper's mouth to hillary and sanders both were calculated and vicious.
Blah blah blah fuck ted cruz, I don't hate him because he is conservative. I hate him for his incessant bullshittting
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The Ted Cruzes, Marco Rubios and the Ben Carsons believe that the enter media establishment is a liberal communist propoganda bunker. So to them CNN hosting a Democratic debate is like the Pravda sitting down and talking to the Communist Party leaders of the revolution. This is their worldview. When Cruz says that we need balance by having conservatives host the debates, this is exactly what is thinking because in his mind the conservative republicans are the last bastion of free press from this liberal oppression.

These guys are drunk on anti-communist literature from the 50s like Manchurian Candidate and Naked Communist. It's like talking to someone under a siege mentality: either you're completely with the program or you're a spy.
 
RustyNails said:
The Ted Cruzes, Marco Rubios and the Ben Carsons believe that the enter media establishment is a liberal communist propoganda bunker. So to them CNN hosting a Democratic debate is like the Pravda sitting down and talking to the Communist Party leaders of the revolution. This is their worldview. When Cruz says that we need balance by having conservatives host the debates, this is exactly what is thinking because in his mind the conservative republicans are the last bastion of free press from this liberal oppression.

These guys are drunk on anti-communist literature from the 50s like Manchurian Candidate and Naked Communist. It's like talking to someone under a siege mentality: either you're completely with the program or you're a spy.
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They always manage to reveal how uneducated I am. Mensheviks?
 
Why doesn't the Republican Party just get the National Review to host their debates? I'm sure cable stations would still provide the airtime. Not like they still wouldn't get in stupid arguments with each other. Do they really think that's the problem and not that there are 10 guys on stage?
 
Long and Depressing Read.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122062/obama-gap-case-study-electoral-failure

But set Obama’s impressive electoral victories aside and the Democrats look less like an emerging majority and more like a party in free fall: Since Obama was sworn in six years ago, Democrats have suffered net losses of 11 governorships, 30 statehouse chambers, more than 900 statehouse seats, and have lost control of both houses of the U.S. Congress. After the 2014 midterm rout, Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg penned a memo deeming it “remarkable”—an understatement—that voters had given Republicans so much control so soon after giving Democrats Rooseveltian wins nationally. The implications, Rosenberg warned, were dire: “The scale of Republican success in recent years outside the Presidency has altered the balance between the two parties now, and may even leave the GOP a stronger national party than the Democrats over the next decade.”
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Florida reveals the existential challenges the Democrats confront. The emerging Democratic majority may be an opportunity that Obama turned into reality. But unless Democrats find better ways to turn out their new voters—and win back more of the white voters flocking to the GOP—the party will continue to lose ground in Congress, governors’ mansions, and statehouses across the country—regardless of who wins the White House in 2016. To do that, Democrats will need better ways to organize their traditional party apparatus—or find new ways to leverage outside groups and spending to strengthen their ties with new voters before Republicans do. “Our party has a problem,” Wasserman Schultz said in a post-midterm “autopsy” video. “We’ve got to do better.”
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==

The disconnect between Democratic success nationally and locally is also partly due to the kind of “post-partisan” candidate Obama sought to be in 2008. Obama’s young, racially diverse base flocked to him precisely because he promised to transcend both parties. Out of necessity—at the time, much of the party establishment was firmly committed to Hillary Clinton—Obama circumvented the traditional party infrastructure with volunteers and small donors that were more loyal to him personally than to his party. In places where there was an entrenched Democratic machine, like Philadelphia, the campaign famously refused to hand out “walking around money,” cash payments that go to entrenched operatives and party loyalists in exchange for turning out the vote.
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==

Down-ballot losses can have a negative impact up the chain as well. When state and local-level candidates lose, it cuts off the supply of new talent for higher office, leaving the national party with a short list of old, familiar faces. That process left Florida Democrats with Charlie Crist, the former governor who went from Republican to Independent to Democrat, as their 2014 gubernatorial candidate, in large part because no one else who was willing to run was remotely viable. “After Charlie, what? After Charlie, who’s their great hope? If they don’t win with Charlie Crist, it has to be stunt casting because their bench is so weak,” GOP strategist Rick Wilson joked last year in an interview with NPR affiliate WUSF. It wasn’t just a partisan jab: Crist, who lacked, to put it mildly, strong ties to the party, lost to Republican incumbent Rick Scott, one of the least popular governors in the country.

That disparity is on display in Florida’s 2016 open-seat Senate race, which is open only because its current holder, Marco Rubio, emerged as one of the top contenders for president and is not running for re-election. The Democratic frontrunner is, like Crist, another GOP refugee: Patrick Murphy, who until 2011 was a registered Republican, but was elected to Congress as a Democrat in 2012. The party’s paucity of formidable statewide candidates “didn’t happen overnight,” said Scott Arceneaux, executive director of the Florida Democratic Party, pointing out that Republicans have controlled the statehouse for nearly 20 years. “You got a whole generation of folks who weren’t locally elected to office . . . the result is that our bench is a lot shorter than theirs.” The problem is evident at the presidential level as well: Hillary Clinton faces thin opposition while the Republican field is so crowded that TV networks have to limit the number who will participate in the main debates to ten. The function of any party, Joe Trippi told me, is to develop winning candidates. “Go local, go small, put a lot of energy into recruiting and finding people,” Trippi said. “Because later on, they are the people who are going to be able to get $20 million contributed online.”
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RustyNails said:
Carson's campaign is meeting with all the other campaigns to plot a debate strategy. My guess is that Carson will demand the debate moderators to not ask about his association wih Mannatech. Question is, will the news channels yield?

What a bunch of babies. Try wearing diapers in the next debate.
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I would lay money on them asking for less "liberal" outlets like CNBC as well as a decrease in the amount of candidates on stage.
 
Makai said:
If we ordered the candidates by likeliness to be nominated, it'd be something like this:

Trump
Cruz
Carson
Rubio
Jindal
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I say based on everything we know so far:
1. Rubio
2. Cruz
3. Carson

No one else worth even ranking. No one else is going to win a single primary. Trumps campaign is dead.
 
Cheebo said:
No one else worth even ranking. honestly no one really is outside of Rubio and Cruz. Trumps campaign is dead.
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Trump's poll numbers have consistently been somewhere around double or triple rubio and Cruz, whether you're talking nationally or state level primaries.

In addition unlike Carson he's one of the few who actually have presented coherent policy proposals.

That's an interesting interpretation of "dead".
 
Makai said:
If we ordered the candidates by likeliness to be nominated, it'd be something like this:

Trump
Cruz
Carson
Rubio
Jindal
Click to expand...

so are we starting from the bottom or

RustyNails said:
My guess is that Carson will demand the debate moderators to not ask about his association wih Mannatech.
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Mannatech is his evil jrpg front corporation that harnesses the planet's energy for carson to absorb to ascend to godhood
But can Hillary collect the 8 elemental crystals in time to stop him?
 
Makai said:
What gives you that impression?
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Because he is just in in extended Herman Cain/Newt mode and it feels like it is fading, and not for too long.

Rubio will be leading nationally by December 1st I am thinking. That or second to Carson. Trump falling to third.
 
Makai said:
He is polling at all-time highs right now.
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I am thinking there is going to be a slow fading starting with the post-Debate polling.

I feel more confident than I have even previously he is not going to win a single primary. I think it is less likely Trump wins a single primary state than it is that Hillary will lose the Dem primary, and I am 99.9% certain Hillary is winning the Dem primary.

Trump feels most like what Dean was to 2004.

This whole primary feels A LOT like the 2004 Dem primary.
 
Still don't get everyone poo pooing Trump. It's almost 2016 and he's still polling better, fundraising better etc. than almost every other candidate. Bush and Rubio give and take from each other and neither cracks double digits, Kasich barely even registers but the way the media tells it it might as well just be a three way race between those guys.

Trump isn't this cycle's flavor of the month, Carson is and Trump is Romney. The media is practically anointing Rubio as the nominee and in the Ipsos poll that came out today he's at 6% and behind Bush who's supposed to be dead. No one who's analyzing this race has any idea what they're talking about
 
Cheebo said:
Because he is just in in extended Herman Cain/Newt mode and it feels like it is fading, and not for too long.

Rubio will be leading nationally by December 1st I am thinking. That or second to Carson. Trump falling to third.
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Where are these Rubio voters coming from? Trump losing support is more likely to go to Cruz or Carson than Rubio.

Your conclusions about Trumps demise are greatly exaggerated.
 
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