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[User 463088]

P.S. Did you see my in-depth [post=183315176]response[/post] to your post? If you only have the energy to respond to some of it, that's cool.

I did see your post, yes. I appreciate your response. I didn't respond simply because I didn't want it to just be you and I going back and forth. I figured no one really wanted to read that. I hope that doesn't come off as dismissive, because that's not my intention.

I'll touch on the point you made about Obama in 2008 as it relates to democratic party support, though. Obama was a Democratic state senator. He was a Democratic nominee when he ran for Senate in 2004 and spoke at the DNC. In 2007, he was a Democratic Senator running for the Democratic nomination for President. He had quite a bit of party support. Bernie Sanders has never been a Democrat. In fact, he's still not a Democrat. He's an Independent running for our party's nomination. There's a world of difference between the two. Party politics matter in a national election.

 

[Black Mamba]

They were vetting a two year (not even) senator for VP

The fuck is wrong with these people

(says the Castro supporter)

still a step up from Palin.

 

[Yellowtail]

I don't know, I thought my example of how off polls can sometimes be was rather excellent .

Not to indulge poll trutherism, but nowithstanding 2008's unique circumstances, New Hampshire polls are famously unreliable right till the end. In 2004 and 2008, over a third of voters made up their minds in the last three days!

 

[NeoXChaos]

Not to indulge poll trutherism, but nowithstanding 2008's unique circumstances, New Hampshire polls are famously unreliable right till the end. In 2004 and 2008, over a third of voters made up their minds in the last three days!

So there's a chance Clinton can come back and win NH? Color me surprised /s

 

[brainchild]

Vast majority of Muslims are not caucasian, at least in the US. Many imbeciles use the cover of religion to lob racist attacks on Muslims. Look at all the Islamophobic hate crimes that take place. Brown people pay the price of anti-Muslim rhetoric. Bernie is a champ for bringing this issue to light. Hope others follow.

Islamophobia has a lot to do with racism. They intersect.

Correlation != Causation

I understand the point of what Bernie is doing (and I believe it's a valid point), so please understand my point. There may be racist/bigoted motivations behind some people's islamophobic actions, but that does not make Islam a race. Now, if anyone has any actual evidence to the contrary, I'm definitely open to considering it, but all the evidence I'm aware of seems to suggest that Islam is a religion/culture that any race can become a part of.

I believe Bernie could have addressed the issue without alluding to Islam being a race, and (in most cases) spreading misinformation does more harm than good.

 

[User 463088]

If anyone's into playing with poll numbers like I am, take a look at the 5 day tracking one.

Tracking Poll

You can isolate the numbers based on whatever filters you want to add. For example, if the election were only among 18-29 year olds, Bernie would win. You add any other age demo, and Bernie loses.

The most shocking to me is what happens with the likely voter screen. Hillary's lead goes up to something like 72%. This shows Bernie's strength and greatest weakness. He's putting his faith in a voting bloc that simply doesn't usually vote, especially not in primaries.

 

[Iolo]

Not to indulge poll trutherism, but nowithstanding 2008's unique circumstances, New Hampshire polls are famously unreliable right till the end. In 2004 and 2008, over a third of voters made up their minds in the last three days!

This doesn't necessarily mean all those people changed their vote or reported as undecided earlier, though. For example, you could flirt with voting for Cruz but tell pollsters you were voting for Carson (pollsters often push undecideds to commit), actually vote for Carson, but say afterward you didn't make up your mind until the day of.

 

[HylianTom]

Joe Trippi's reaction to the "leaked" Jeb document on Rubio..

 

[shinra-bansho]

3%? Oh Jeb...

Bernie's Brain Trust

Anyone see this article? Not sure if it was posted here or not, yet, so forgive me if it was.

I think it might have been posted earlier. But yes, the staffers sound kinda douchey.
My sentiment after reading that piece is that 1) Sanders didn't really set out in this race to win but rather to push his issues, but has done surprisingly well; and because of that 2) it could be that people like Devine, who have only been part of losing Presidential campaigns are actually the ones thirsty for the WH not him and see this as their shot.

2. Why do people keep saying Rubio is charismatic? Every answer of his except for his exchange with el yebe sounded so scripted. Come on.

I think that was probably rehearsed too. Because everyone knew the attack was coming. Apparently's one of Jeb's SuperPACs had set up a twitter @IsMarcoWorking. :/

 

[Makai]

Anyone here who bet on Bush not regret it?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Ted Cruz literally did inflation-mongering and called for the Gold Standard and the flat tax last night and he is considered to have finished second in the debate. Jeb! actually had a logical train of thought of "you know, fantasy sports are gambling so maybe we should regulate them" and that will likely be the last comment of his campaign as he got crushed. Just fucking strange.

 

[Makai]

Ted Cruz literally did inflation-mongering and called for the Gold Standard and the flat tax last night and he is considered to have finished second in the debate. Jeb! actually had a logical train of thought of "you know, fantasy sports are gambling so maybe we should regulate them" and that will likely be the last comment of his campaign as he got crushed. Just fucking strange.

Gotta love Christie piling on, "Our debt is $20 trillion and we're talking about fantasy football? *cloud laughter* Let's stick with the issues that matter."

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Gotta love Christie piling on, "Our debt is $20 trillion and we're talking about fantasy football? *cloud laughter* Let's stick with the issues that matter."

The fantasy football question was actually one of the more interesting ones all night because it exposes the deep internal contradiction of the GOP's "moral concern" against gambling and the GOP's hate of regulation.

... And so Christie laughed it to slaughter Jeb.

"The government does everything bad."

"The war on drugs and the police are good, we will be able to easily win a war against Iran."

Is another deep contradiction obviously.

 

[CCS]

Today in "I don't want to keep my political career alive anymore" news...

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm interested to see what Rubio did in the past... You can be certain that Hillary will find out.

 

[teiresias]

Today in "I don't want to keep my political career alive anymore" news...

Oh lord, this leak plus #5 is classic!!

 

[Aaron Strife]

Today in "I don't want to keep my political career alive anymore" news...

Voters have ADD

Case in point: George Bush's brother is considered a viable candidate for the presidency.

 

[Fenderputty]

Ted Cruz literally did inflation-mongering and called for the Gold Standard and the flat tax last night and he is considered to have finished second in the debate. Jeb! actually had a logical train of thought of "you know, fantasy sports are gambling so maybe we should regulate them" and that will likely be the last comment of his campaign as he got crushed. Just fucking strange.

Paper money is worthless and gold is inherently valuable. Now how about I sell you some gold for some of that paper money.

 

[CCS]

Voters have ADD

Case in point: George Bush's brother is considered a viable candidate for the presidency.

It's not a particularly inaccurate statement. It is a moronic one though.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm interested to see what Rubio did in the past... You can be certain that Hillary will find out.

I don't really think the Butcher of Benghazi murderess Scandillary Rob'em should be trying to target his past "scandals" (which seem really vanilla especially compared to her impending impeachment). Jeb just seems desperate from this.

 

[User 463088]

I don't get this leak. Was this on purpose by the campaign? Was someone just pissed off? If it's the latter, then why in the hell didn't the person just jump ship and take it to Rubio. There's something in Rubio's past. I hope to god it's live boy/dead girl material. I mean, it's probably something boring like he can't pay his bills, but whatever. I can't believe that Bush's campaign is this freaking stupid. I mean, Rove was an evil SOB, but he was competent (mostly) at his evil role of getting Shrub elected. I can't imagine Jeb! No Last Name couldn't pick moderately competent people. Then again, "Bush" and "competent" are two words that don't go together without the words "is not" in between.

Anyone else see that Bernie quote from the 80s where Bernie praises Castro? These ads just write themselves.

 

[Yellowtail]

This might be the best thing in Jeb's memo.

(p.72)

The supposedly best campaign infrastructure in Iowa has made thousands of phonecalls, but not knocked on a single door. Bernie's operation could run rings around any Republican's (never mind Hillary's). And remember Rubio's campaign thinks everything can be done out of a Starbucks.

 

[danm999]

I don't get this leak. Was this on purpose by the campaign? Was someone just pissed off? If it's the latter, then why in the hell didn't the person just jump ship and take it to Rubio.

I'd guess a disloyal Bush campaign employee is still a Bush campaign employee and thus, probably not very savvy.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This might be the best thing in Jeb's memo.

(p.72)

The supposedly best campaign infrastructure in Iowa has made thousands of phonecalls, but not knocked on a single door. Bernie's operation could run rings around any Republican's (never mind Hillary's). And remember Rubio's campaign thinks everything can be done out of a Starbucks.

Yeah I think even if Bernie were the Dem nominee base turnout alone would win the election for him. All of the data guys are working for the Democrats, the former Obama/current Clinton people would just jump ship.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

"Obama is weak compared to me"

"CNBC is way too mean "

 

[User 463088]

I'd guess a disloyal Bush campaign employee is still a Bush campaign employee and thus, probably not very savvy.

I can't imagine what a loyal Bush campaign employee looks like at this point.

I still think Bush will do what he can to hurt Rubio. I'm not sure how successful he'll be, but I genuinely get the impression he does not want Rubio to get the nomination. Since Rubio's basically the only other establishment candidate left in the race, this makes sense.

 

[Makai]

I can't imagine what a loyal Bush campaign employee looks like at this point.

 

[danm999]

I can't imagine what a loyal Bush campaign employee looks like at this point.

I still think Bush will do what he can to hurt Rubio. I'm not sure how successful he'll be, but I genuinely get the impression he does not want Rubio to get the nomination. Since Rubio's basically the only other establishment candidate left in the race, this makes sense.

I guess it's just that if there's a stronger establishment candidate in, and one from Florida no less, Jeb really is done, so Rubio has to be killed off ASAP.

Then they figure they can let the zoo play out with Trump and Carson until the party finally comes around and offers him the nomination.

 

[User 463088]

I was better off not knowing.

 

[Makai]

This might be the best thing in Jeb's memo.

(p.72)

You just know he's going to be asked whether he cares about Iowa and he'll say, "Iowa's great! I can't knock it."

 

[NeoXChaos]

I can't imagine what a loyal Bush campaign employee looks like at this point.

I still think Bush will do what he can to hurt Rubio. I'm not sure how successful he'll be, but I genuinely get the impression he does not want Rubio to get the nomination. Since Rubio's basically the only other establishment candidate left in the race, this makes sense.

Both Bush and Rubio have to get through Trump, Carson & possibly Cruz if the former falters to add.

 

[RustyNails]

Someone should definitely go to jail for leaking that stuff. That's just a shitty thing to do, regardless of whether you agree with Jeb or not. Privacy is important whether you're candidate for president or a lawnmower.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Harsh. George P. is kind of sexy in a horrible dynasty evil Republican way.

It's not his fault his dad sucks.

 

[Makai]

Someone should definitely go to jail for leaking that stuff. That's just a shitty thing to do, regardless of whether you agree with Jeb or not. Privacy is important whether you're candidate for president or a lawnmower.

What's the charge?

 

[ivysaur12]

@RealBenCarson
It is important to remember that amateurs built the Ark and it was the professionals that built the Titanic. @my_ccu

...

 

[User 463088]

Both Bush and Rubio have to get through Trump, Carson & possibly Cruz if the former falters to add.

The interesting thing is that Carson and Trump could be spoilers for quite a while. Until March 15, everything is going to be based on proportional representation. If Trump and Carson stay in, I doubt Cruz is leaving. So, if you have Cruz, Trump and Carson splitting the non-establishment vote, there's a good chance you'll get to a situation where they each have somewhere around 20% of the available delegates. God, this thing should go on as long as possible.

The money won't run out for Trump. He'll sink as much money as he wants into this. The only question is would his ego take too many second places without going into full melt down mode.

It is important to remember that amateurs built the Ark and it was the professionals that built the Titanic. @my_ccu

PLAGIARISM! He stole that from Christian comedian/singer Mark Lowery.

 

[Makai]

...

That's brilliant.

 

[NeoXChaos]

The interesting thing is that Carson and Trump could be spoilers for quite a while. Until March 15, everything is going to be based on proportional representation. If Trump and Carson stay in, I doubt Cruz is leaving. So, if you have Cruz, Trump and Carson splitting the non-establishment vote, there's a good chance you'll get to a situation where they each have somewhere around 20% of the available delegates. God, this thing should go on as long as possible.

The money won't run out for Trump. He'll sink as much money as he wants into this. The only question is would his ego take too many second places without going into full melt down mode.



PLAGIARISM! He stole that from Christian comedian/singer Mark Lowery.

Is there a % threshold for delegates? I know for the democrats you need atleast 15% to obtain delegates.

 

[Konka]

Someone should definitely go to jail for leaking that stuff. That's just a shitty thing to do, regardless of whether you agree with Jeb or not. Privacy is important whether you're candidate for president or a lawnmower.

What? We most definitely should not be sending people to jail for leaking a document. That's how we get bloated prison populations.

 

[RustyNails]

What's the charge?

Leaking company's material? Look, if you're making a closed-door speech that's different. But stuff that's related to your campaign, company, business, that's crossing the line.

 

[User 463088]

Is there a % threshold for delegates? I know for the democrats you need atleast 15% to obtain delegates.

I don't think so. I know we Dems make it harder than the GOP does.

Here's a Blog Post about RNC rules. I don't know how accurate it is, though.

Here are the full rules, if you're so inclined.

 

[RustyNails]

What? We most definitely should not be sending people to jail for leaking a document. That's how we get bloated prison populations.

Ok, maybe not prison. But someone should be held accountable.

 

[Wilsongt]

So Boy Blunder Prime is our new speaker?

 

[RastaMentality]

 

[pigeon]

I guess it's just that if there's a stronger establishment candidate in, and one from Florida no less, Jeb really is done, so Rubio has to be killed off ASAP.

Then they figure they can let the zoo play out with Trump and Carson until the party finally comes around and offers him the nomination.

Also, Jeb might want to angle for VP as the price of his SuperPAC. He can't be Rubio's veep.

 

[User 463088]

Is there a % threshold for delegates? I know for the democrats you need atleast 15% to obtain delegates.

Okay, there is no threshold for the GOP.

Iowa's rules

 

[NeoXChaos]

Okay, there is no threshold for the GOP.

Iowa's rules

Convention: State will bind delegates to the national convention at a state/territory convention. Other conventions will leave the delegation unbound.

Proportional: State will proportionally allocated delegates based either on the statewide primary/caucus vote or on the combination of the statewide and congressional district votes.

Proportional with Trigger: State will follow above proportional rules but allows for a winner-take-all allocation if a candidate wins a majority of the vote statewide or at the congressional district level.

Hybrid: State will follow some form of winner-take-most plan (i.e.: winner-take-all by congressional district) or directly elects delegates on the primary ballot.

Winner-take-all: State will award all delegates to the plurality winner of the primary or caucus.

 

[BSsBrolly]

Man I wish Jeb would have secured the nomination before he started to implode...

 

[Snake]

Poor Jeb.

I hope they've got Bill Frist on hand to prevent them from removing the feeding tube.

 

[thepotatoman]

So, Jeb!'s out. Now we have from now until december to watch Rubio fail, and the establishment will have no one else left to back but Kasich.

Then January comes, Trump and Carson realize they might actually win, commit political suicide to get out actually having to be president while republicans voters realize how stupid they were to ever back those guys, and my hail mary pick of Kasich works out.

It's all going according plan.