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PoliGAF 2015 |OT2| Pls print

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M

Makai

Member
Cheebo said:
I am thinking there is going to be a slow fading starting with the post-Debate polling.

I feel more confident than I have even previously he is not going to win a single primary. I think it is less likely Trump wins a single primary state than it is that Hillary will lose the Dem primary, and I am 99.9% certain Hillary is winning the Dem primary.
Click to expand...
Even if there is a drop, he's still well positioned as the top dog. He and Carson have nearly a supermajority of support.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Cheebo said:
I am thinking there is going to be a drop starting with the post-Debate polling.

I feel more confident than I have even previously he is not going to win a single primary. I think it is less likely Trump wins a single primary state than it is that Hillary will lose the Dem primary, and I am 99.9% certain Hillary is winning the Dem primary.
Click to expand...

The post debate snap polls all had trump winning that debate overwhelmingly, as they did after the first two debates.

Newsmax, drudge, time, and CNBC all have trump with double digit margins and no one else anywhere in the same league. Say what you will about unscientific online polls, but there's no indication Trumps support has dropped at all.
 
M

Makai

Member
Trump looked presidential as fuck at that debate. He only went after people who attacked him directly and let Rubio drown Jeb in the mud.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Cheebo said:
I am thinking there is going to be a slow fading starting with the post-Debate polling.

I feel more confident than I have even previously he is not going to win a single primary. I think it is less likely Trump wins a single primary state than it is that Hillary will lose the Dem primary, and I am 99.9% certain Hillary is winning the Dem primary.

Trump feels most like what Dean was to 2004.

This whole primary feels A LOT like the 2004 Dem primary.
Click to expand...

Just like the last two times?

lol at giving Carson a bigger chance of winning then Trump
 
N

noshten

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Still don't get everyone poo pooing Trump. It's almost 2016 and he's still polling better, fundraising better etc. than almost every other candidate. Bush and Rubio give and take from each other and neither cracks double digits, Kasich barely even registers but the way the media tells it it might as well just be a three way race between those guys.

Trump isn't this cycle's flavor of the month, Carson is and Trump is Romney. The media is practically anointing Rubio as the nominee and in the Ipsos poll that came out today he's at 6% and behind Bush who's supposed to be dead. No one who's analyzing this race has any idea what they're talking about
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Definitely, it's just media is trying to spin things since the semantics aren't looking well for the mainstream candidates. They keep expecting Trump and Carson to blow up and it will certainly eventually happen to Carson but who's to say most of the people behind the Carson surge won't choose Trump or Cruz as their alternative in such a situation.
 
F

Fenderputty

Banned
Cheebo said:
Because he is just in in extended Herman Cain/Newt mode and it feels like it is fading, and not for too long.

.
Click to expand...

This may very well be true, but earlier in the cycle you were saying "once he makes it past Cain / Newt time spent at the top, then we can say he's not the flavor of the month"
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Carson is basically Huckabee. He will play well in IA and SC but flame out afterwards. Trump is a mixture of Huckabee and McCain. He can win NH, do well in SC, possibly win NV and play well in the SEC primary if Cruz and Carson are still in where they all split the Conservative vote.

Both Carson and Trump are at the expense of Jeb and Rubio. The latter are not going anywhere unless Jeb can take out Trump in NH. Rubio is a Romney whereby he would have to hope Trump & Carson fade, Cruz and him share some support and Jeb implodes by losing NH. So many variables to this.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Every time someone says Trump is gonna start collapsing, he gets even better in polls. It makes him stronger. He really is a comic book villain.
 
M

Makai

Member
Here's the thing, guys. Polls are a reflection of how people feel about the candidates. Jeb plummeted because he's a boring nerd. Rubio is at high risk because of his past position on amnesty, which is the issue in this race. Carson seems to get away with everything, but he has no campaign infrastructure. Rubio doesn't either, but I'm sure he's ramping up his operation as fast as he can. Cruz doesn't seem to have a lot of negatives, but he might have difficulty proving he's not "from Washington." What's going to be the event that causes a shift of support away from Trump? I can't think of shit. Dude has graduated from Teflon to carbon nanotubes.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Extry extry! February GOP debate suspended!

Mr. Andrew Lack Chairman, NBC News 30 Rockefeller Plaza New York, New York 10112

Dear Mr. Lack,

I write to inform you that pending further discussion between the Republican National Committee (RNC) and our presidential campaigns, we are suspending the partnership with NBC News for the Republican primary debate at the University of Houston on February 26, 2016. The RNC’s sole role in the primary debate process is to ensure that our candidates are given a full and fair opportunity to lay out their vision for America’s future. We simply cannot continue with NBC without full consultation with our campaigns.

The CNBC network is one of your media properties, and its handling of the debate was conducted in bad faith. We understand that NBC does not exercise full editorial control over CNBC’s journalistic approach. However, the network is an arm of your organization, and we need to ensure there is not a repeat performance.

CNBC billed the debate as one that would focus on “the key issues that matter to all voters—job growth, taxes, technology, retirement and the health of our national economy.” That was not the case. Before the debate, the candidates were promised an opening question on economic or financial matters. That was not the case. Candidates were promised that speaking time would be carefully monitored to ensure fairness. That was not the case. Questions were inaccurate or downright offensive. The first question directed to one of our candidates asked if he was running a comic book version of a presidential campaign, hardly in the spirit of how the debate was billed.

While debates are meant to include tough questions and contrast candidates’ visions and policies for the future of America, CNBC’s moderators engaged in a series of “gotcha” questions, petty and mean-spirited in tone, and designed to embarrass our candidates. What took place Wednesday night was not an attempt to give the American people a greater understanding of our candidates’ policies and ideas.

I have tremendous respect for the First Amendment and freedom of the press. However, I also expect the media to host a substantive debate on consequential issues important to Americans. CNBC did not.

While we are suspending our partnership with NBC News and its properties, we still fully intend to have a debate on that day, and will ensure that National Review remains part of it.

I will be working with our candidates to discuss how to move forward and will be in touch.

Sincerely,

Reince Priebus Chairman, Republican National Committee
Click to expand...
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Las7 said:
Definitely, it's just media is trying to spin things since the semantics aren't looking well for the mainstream candidates. They keep expecting Trump and Carson to blow up and it will certainly eventually happen to Carson but who's to say most of the people behind the Carson surge won't choose Trump or Cruz as their alternative in such a situation.
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Agree. There's a weird media narrative that trump CANT win, for no other apparent reason than most major outlets wrote him off as another Gingrich or Bachmann early on, and those predictions look worse and worse as time goes on.

If anything Trump is Romney right now- the media has jumped on any flavor of the month it can find ( Fiorina, Carson, now Rubio) as proof that trump was a flash in the pan, or over analyzed questionable polls as proof he was done but none of these have ever panned out.

Trumps polling has been remarkably stable no matter what happens, and he has no real need to fundraise to keep himself in the race.

If any other candidate was running around with his fundamentals this race would have been called "over" weeks ago.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Trippi was right: this is looking more like a murder-suicide in slow-motion.

Past Partners, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush Shift Directions

But among Mr. Bush’s top aides and his super PAC, there is growing contempt for Mr. Rubio and a desire to attack him.

Danny Diaz, Mr. Bush’s hard-charging campaign manager, has told people he would like to accelerate the assault on Mr. Rubio. At a briefing earlier this month for congressional chiefs of staff whose bosses are backing Mr. Bush, Mr. Diaz bragged about the size of their opposition research file on the senator, and said they were prepared to begin a full-scale attack, according to a presidential campaign veteran who was briefed on the conversation and requested anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Mike Murphy, the longtime adviser to Mr. Bush who now controls the super PAC, has told people he would like to go after Mr. Rubio but does not want to do so immediately after the debate because it could reinforce a perception of desperation.
Click to expand...

I was tempted to pick Rubio at some points and Bush at some points, but in the back of my mind the idea that there are two seemingly-moderate Florida candidates trying to occupy the same space in this race didn't bode well. If either one were gone, the other's odds would be sky-high right now.

Right now, I'd place my order as:
1- Trump
2- Rubio (narrowly behind)
3- Cruz
 
M

Manmademan

Member
HylianTom said:
Trippi was right: this is looking more like a murder-suicide in slow-motion.
Click to expand...


To be fair bush doesn't have any other options. He's never going to gain the non establishment vote from trump or Carson, and rubios gains are coming at his expense, both financially and at the polls.

He needs to slow or stop the bleeding long enough to hang in and hope trump or Carson implode.

It's not going to WORK, but that's more because Jeb is inept, rather than a criticism of the strategy. Best case scenario both of them end up too damaged to be viable, leaving only one viable candidate for the establishment to hold their noses and back.

And who is that? You guessed it....






Frank Stallone.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Though they could just release the delegates at the convention and nominate him. Not that any modern party would want to do that.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Makai said:
Is there any chance of Romney jumping in?
Click to expand...

No. Romney spent years building networks to make sure he wouldn't have to spend his own money in 2012. He did the same for endorsements, making sure no other candidate had a legitimate shot.

There's no time for that this round. Loyalties and money are split between bush and Rubio. Without that advantage Romney will get wrecked by Trump and Carson just as fast as everyone else.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/gop-campaigns-rnc-debates-215371
Republican presidential campaigns are planning to gather in Washington, D.C., on Sunday evening to plot how to alter their party’s messy debate process — and how to remove power from the hands of the Republican National Committee.

Not invited to the meeting: Anyone from the RNC, which many candidates have openly criticized in the hours since Wednesday’s CNBC debate in Boulder, Colorado — a chaotic, disorganized affair that was widely panned by political observers.

On Thursday, many of the campaigns told POLITICO that the RNC, which has taken a greater role in the 2016 debate process than in previous election cycles, had failed to take their concerns into account. It was time, top aides to at least half a dozen of the candidates agreed, to begin discussing among themselves how the next debates should be structured and not leave it up to the RNC and television networks.

The gathering is being organized by advisers to the campaigns of Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal and Lindsey Graham, according to multiple sources involved in the planning. Others who are expected to attend, organizers say, are representatives for Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Rick Santorum. The planners are also reaching out to other Republican candidates.

...

“I think the campaigns have a number of concerns and they have a right to talk about that amongst themselves,” said Christian Ferry, Graham’s campaign manager. The objective, Ferry said, was to “find out what works best for us as a group.”

Figuring that out could be contentious as each campaign has a number of different complaints about the process. Some — such as Bush and Paul — have griped about unequal speaking time. Others have complained bitterly about how polling is used to determine who qualifies for the prime-time and undercard debates. Some have insisted on giving opening and closing statements, despite the networks' desire to have the candidates spend as much time as possible clashing with each other on stage.

...

Jindal, who polls better in Iowa than he does nationally, has argued that criteria for determining who qualifies for debates should be based on early state polling, not just national surveys.

“Our continuous complaint is candidate exclusion and the delusional debate polling criteria. It's unacceptable,” said Gail Gitcho, a Jindal spokeswoman. “Maybe this meeting will change that, maybe it won't. But we aren't going to shut up about it.”

Graham’s campaign has argued that there should be two debates — with two groups of seven or eight candidates selected randomly.

...

"I think the bigger frustration you saw is that all those candidates onstage had prepared for a substantive debate. Everyone was ready to talk about trade policy and the debt and tax policies," Rubio said on Fox News. "And we're ready for that, everybody was. And then, you got questions that everyone got, which were clearly designed to get us to fight against each other or get us to say something embarrassing about us and then get us to react."

"The campaigns are not going to allow the networks to control this process," Huckabee told Fox Business host Lou Dobbs on Thursday night.
Click to expand...
bolded part for retro
 
I

Iolo

Member
RustyNails said:
This news was earlier in the day. The NBC boycott is the fruit of that meeting
Click to expand...

Politico said:
The forum — scheduled for Feb. 26, at the University of Houston — was the only Republican primary debate set to be co-hosted by a Hispanic news organization. Priebus said a debate will still occur on that date, and National Review will still be a part of it. But he did not say whether another Spanish-language media organization will be involved.
Click to expand...

winning
 
Tarkus

Tarkus

Member
CNBC did handle the debate very poorly. They wanted a slugfest when it should have focused on economic policy. It's was almost complete garbage.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
RustyNails said:
This news was earlier in the day. The NBC boycott is the fruit of that meeting
Click to expand...

Well, not exactly. The RNC is cutting NBC loose separately from anything the candidates are doing.

Basically, the candidates are challenging the RNC here, because they're responsible for setting up debates with the networks. Theoretically candidates that go to unsanctioned debates are banned from future debates, but if, like, the polling leaders choose to go to an unsanctioned debate, that puts the RNC is kind of a bad place.

So they're trying to preempt anything happening here by themselves attacking the media even before the candidates attack them.
 
M

mightynine

Member
Honestly, based on the Politico article, I have to wonder if this is just the RNC trying to one-up the candidates trying to wrest control of the debate process away from it and using the almost universal-panning of the CNBC debate as an excuse.

EDIT: What Pigeon said.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Christ these candidates are babies.

The questions were mostly legit aside from a few memorable stinkers.

The problem was that the CNBC moderators weren't prepared at all to fight back a bit when the candidates started spewing lies and getting aggressive when faced with tough questions.
 
M

Maledict

Member
What I don't understand is what the media didn't learn its lesson in 2012, and Gingrich.

Gingrich was brought back to life by a debate performance where he got asked a dumb question by a moderator and then took an axe to them, and the media in general. The Republican base is convinced that every Media outlet apart from fox is part of a vast liberal conspiracy, and it's the easiest target in the world for a candidate to attack. Double down on the media and the democrats and you are handing them an instant victory.

You have to go into the debate understanding that, and not give them *any* opportunity to attack the person not the question. It's dumb and it's unfair (because christ do they do that to the democrats) but it's how republican primaries work. You can't win that fight, so don't let it start and don't give them the opportunity to accuse the media of being in the oppositions pocket.

EDIT: And my loathing of Ted Cruz grows everytime I see him or hear him. the guy is truly a monster.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Maledict said:
What I don't understand is what the media didn't learn its lesson in 2012, and Gingrich.

Gingrich was brought back to life by a debate performance where he got asked a dumb question by a moderator and then took an axe to them, and the media in general. The Republican base is convinced that every Media outlet apart from fox is part of a vast liberal conspiracy, and it's the easiest target in the world for a candidate to attack. Double down on the media and the democrats and you are handing them an instant victory.

You have to go into the debate understanding that, and not give them *any* opportunity to attack the person not the question. It's dumb and it's unfair (because christ do they do that to the democrats) but it's how republican primaries work.
Click to expand...
After that first debate they don't even know if they can trust Fox anymore!
 
R

Retromelon

Member
benjipwns said:
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/gop-campaigns-rnc-debates-215371

bolded part for retro
Click to expand...

i linked a story where he said that maybe two or three days ago benj
I think I am in the least need for jindal news of probably anyone browsing the entire forum. When it comes to brotha bobby i stay current.

Remember the days when poligaf would generate a page to a page and a half of discussion a day and you would never miss anything someone said. good times
now its like 4 pages per day and you can barely sift through it
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
BertramCooper said:
After that first debate they don't even know if they can trust Fox anymore!
Click to expand...
Segments of the base haven't trusted FOX for years, they're considered shills for amnesty. And often anti-tea party.

You don't hear criticism of FOX from too many "official" commentators because they're all FOX News Contributors and part of those contracts is they can't disparage the network.

That's why Tucker Carlson dumped Mickey Kaus off the Daily Caller.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Also, just a quickie on political cartoons (I've been browsing politico today whilst in bed ill!).

Why is it the right wing cannot come up with a decent political cartoon?

http://www.politico.com/gallery/201...onists-on-the-week-in-politics-002133?slide=0

Ramirez in particular seems to be incredibly talentless, but for all of them there's no subtlety, cleverness or even humour. HAHA HILLARY IS A WITCH!

Maybe I'm just blinded by partisanship, by they just seem so incredibly, incredibly bad.
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
Clinton's growing support among Democrats

dems1.png
dems2.png
Click to expand...
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Makai said:
They always manage to reveal how uneducated I am. Mensheviks?
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The short-lived opposition to the Bolsheviks within the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

Maledict said:
Also, just a quickie on political cartoons (I've been browsing politico today whilst in bed ill!).

Why is it the right wing cannot come up with a decent political cartoon?
Click to expand...
No one except Kelly can come up with a decent political cartoon. He's the only one who's ever managed to produce a good one.

QuiteWhittle said:
Clinton's growing support among Democrats
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Funny how you don't mention Bernie's growing support. The far-right bias in favor of Hillary around here is suffocating.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-fundraiser_5630d832e4b00aa54a4bfe11

WASHINGTON -- Hillary Clinton's presidential bid will get a boost from a dozen female senators next month when they host a fundraiser for her in Washington, D.C.

Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.), Patty Murray (D-Wash.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) are holding the event, which requires a minimum donation of $250. People who raise $27,000 get to attend a post-event dinner with Clinton and the senators.

Sens. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the only female Democratic senators not attending, have yet to endorse Clinton.
Click to expand...

Pack it up.

ALSO HAPPY BIRTHDAY HEIDI HEITKAMP! EVERYONE MAKE SURE TO WISH HER A HAPPY BIRTHDAY ON TWITTER!
 
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