whyamihere
Banned
Oh.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT12| The last days of the Republic
- Thread starter Bronx-Man
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I disagree. This isn't a winnable election. We're not living in a recession with a horribly unpopular President. All of their candidates were different version of white plywood or crazy.
Anyone on earth would be massively unpopular because of the fragmentation/polarization of the political discourse right now. These unpopularity numbers are a result of Breitbart/Fox/Drudge and more or less irrelevant.
This anger and venomous bile that's coming from that side isn't going to subside when he loses. They're going to keep mobilizing. Only Donald Trump can destroy that party by insisting that it break apart after the loss. if he tells them to consolidate they will, because they're mindless Nazi's. And the GOP has shown they've been able to mobilize movements (Gingrich Revolution / Tea Party) in off years to win landslides.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Sometimes I really wish there was like a Siri for Twitter
"Half" and "irredeemable" were the problem parts, and that was obvious on day 1.
Disagree with its use, agree with the content.
I don't think she should have said it because it ended up being fuel for the Trumpers but she absolutely was right so I would defend it.
Vestal
Junior Member
Hey Trump, that thing you say you are, doesn't mean what you think it means.. Ok?
"If you know what I mean, wink wink"
Manmademan
Member
it was also true on day 1.
I think they could form one, although like the "Bernie Revolution", I suspect a lot of them are just in it for Trump, not so much because of his politics. It's just what he represents and who he is, sprinkled with a bit of white nationalism, protectionism and that's it. I don't think it's enough to form a party.
Either moderate Republicans leave the party of the deplorables do, but the current makeup of the party won't last.
Unless they both REALLY hate Hillary and forget about Trump as soon as he loses, uniting against her until 2020 comes along.
In that he owns a collared shirt that happens to be blue?
"Sometimes when I get out of my solid gold bathtub I'll put on a blue shirt with my Armani suit. It has a blue collar."
Black Mamba
Member
If you don't think Kasich would have had a good shot at winning this election (or at the very least keep the Senate and House), I don't see what there is to discuss.
It's what got us a democratic governor, so why not try again?
Yes.
I don't think Kasich is a winner. But even the biggest Hillary supporter would admit it would be close.
GurgleBot20
Member
This would assume he could get out of the primary, which he only won Ohio in.
Manmademan
Member
a better shot than Trump has, but that's literally anyone. Nancy Pelosi running on the R ticket would be getting more republican votes than Trump right now. This is a disaster.
I can see Kasich doing Romney numbers- maybe even give him ohio- but that's not going to be enough when demographics have been unfavorable for the party as a whole and gotten worse since 2012.
He would have had to contend with being badly outmatched on funding and ground game, just as Trump is- and wouldn't have had the benefit of all the "Free Media" coverage Trump gets to offset that.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
15 minutes until it starts - probably about an hour before we hear anything.
Dear USA,
We refer you to the response given in Arkell v Pressdram (1971)
Sincerely
U(still, just)K
BlastProcessing
Member
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
No, the only real problem with Deplorables is that she was using a ephemistic catch-all for racists, xenophobic, sexist, bigoted simpletons. By dancing around it she gave him room to imply that she was talking about all conservatives. This is the same problem Obama had with his guns-n-religion quote where he was clearly right but not specific enough.
Stop the euphemisms. It will burn you every time.
Stop the euphemisms. It will burn you every time.
Black Mamba
Member
Yes, I agree. He couldn't get out of the primary. But that's irrelevant to my point (or even enhances it when you think about it)
The GOP could have easily put up someone who could have defeated Hillary.
Look at Hillary's unfavorables. Look, I think Hillary is a great candidate for President but most Americans do not. They do not understand things like we do; they are not politically well-versed.
The Obama coalition is holding strong because they really hate Trump. But many groups are not voting for her as they did for Obama.
And someone like Kasich could have changed the race by a lot. I'm not saying he wins; I'm saying it would most certainly be close and he'd have a very good shot.
Yes, Obama is popular and things are going much better but the American electorate, as a whole, is pretty stupid and reacts weirdly to things. Al Gore losing in 2000 is proof enough (and I don't care how bad a campaign he ran, the race shouldn't have been close).
Without Trump, this election wouldn't have been about the demographics as much as the turnout.
And I am thoroughly convinced without a Trump/Cruz type candidate, turnout for Hillary would have been a problem.
Call me naive, but I have a feeling some of the high profile GOP members who have grown sick of Trump over the past year might actually be willing to work with Clinton, since she's actually...y'know...sane?
Basileus777
Member
No, the fact that he couldn't get out is the point. The GOP took a year where they had a chance to end it with complete control over the federal government and threw it down the drain because of how they've cultivated an insane base.
Sure he would, but he had no chance of passing the primary even without Trump. He didn't win a single state besides Ohio and he wouldn't have gotten the trump voters. Those people would have went for Cruz.
I mean, Jon Huntsman might have won 2012 too, that doesn't make 2012 a "winnable" election in any really meaningful way.
I loled. Let the true battle begin.
sturgboski
Member
OK MSNBC at one of the watch parties with undecided millennials one girl basically says it's like chosing the best of the worst or something to that affect. Girl next her shut that shit down immediately saying it's not even close, that if you do any looking Hillary is the way better candidate that, while she wishes it was Bernie, she's voting for Hillary. First girl looked thrown off for having her bullshit logic shutdown.
User 463088
Banned
Come to my house. I made stuffed porkchops (stuffed with apples and sausage), roasted potatoes, onions and green beans, carrot pudding and biscuits.
RastaMentality
Banned
asian food.
Manmademan
Member
No, they couldn't. Because the GOP's base (as we're seeing now) consists of a LOT of bigots, a LOT of racists, a LOT of single issue voting evangelicals that demand party purity or they revolt.
This has been a problem for a VERY long time.
You want to "put up someone who could have defeated hillary" then they need to get past the primary- and the primary has been hijacked by tea partier types, racists, and evangelicals. Even candidates like Romney end up being forced hard right and have to scramble back to the center, disavowing things they said during the primary- after draining tons of funds on what should be an easy primary.
you can't simply dismiss this and pretend the GOP can just stick a fantasy candidate the establishment likes in the general.
My God, the salt of it all.
Black Mamba
Member
2012 wasn't winnable because the Obama coalition was still 95% there AND the American electorate wasn't going to turn on Obama so soon especially with the GOP so negative all 4 years.
Huntsman would have lost by the same margin as Romney.
This isn't the same thing. Hillary would NOT have the full Obama coalition without Trump. The passion is not behind her. Americans like the idea of changing things up, too.
The non-polling fundamentals favored the GOP slightly this election with Hillary on the ticket.
Trump confirmed horny as hell.
I'm starting to believe this more and more.
Where is this from?
I think the pendulum will swing back to a Romney type in 2020, as I think 2016 is a pendulum swing from 2012 (where the moderate didn't win), so they went with the extreme option (Trump and Cruz being second) in 2016, while as in 2020 I think 4 years of Clinton will motivate many of the Trump supporters to hold their nose and go for a "moderate" pick, just as Clinton 2016 was motivating many moderate Republicans to hold their nose and vote for Trump (until recently).
Sadly true. I would expect a massive mid-term swing towards the GOP in 2018, like 2010 wave level.
The leaked Podesta emails even have several emails from him basically begging for the GOP to nominate Trump, as they thought even Cruz had a 50/50 chance of beating Clinton. If Kasich were ten years younger, he would be set to take on (and probably beat badly) Clinton in 2020. Hell, I think Kasich is beating her now to be honest in an election.
(I think Kasich, Romney, and the Bushes are the only Republicans that come out looking good from all of this)
Hell, to further go along Mamba's point - even WITH TRUMP, Clinton was getting struggling heavily in turnout until recently. (see LV screens / numbers)
Black Mamba
Member
Maybe we're talking over each other.
When I say the GOP is losing a winnable election, I mean to say they are putting up a candidate that will lose in an election where the fundamentals were not against them (such as in 2012 or 2008).
The reason they are losing a winnable election is because their base has become so much of what you described and has made a winning election into an unwinnable election for them.
So you are correct to say the election isn't winnable because they can't elect a winnable candidate. My point is before bringing in those things, the election is winnable.
In 2008 they could have nominated Jesus and he'd have lost. Not so this time.
Veritigo_X
Member
Corey Stewart's Facebook post right before getting fired. Dumbest campaign staffer?
Roland_Gunner
Member
I think you're underestimating how much danger Obama was in four years ago. Before Sandy hit he was probably on track to win by 2 to 2.5 points. A Republican candidate not bogged down with Romney's history on immigration and the 47% stuff could definetly have made that up. Obama had to run a great campaign, get some luck, and have Romney hurt himself in key areas to even get a 3.5% win.
User 463088
Banned
Corey Stewart's Facebook post right before getting fired. Dumbest campaign staffer?
I mean, didn't one of them shoot someone?
My bad. It's Adlai Stevenson.
You might recognize the more popular/recent version by Isaac Asimov
“There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”
This is exactly it. Even if Trump supporters recognize that there are racist and sexist and bigoted supporters among them, it's too easy for them to say "That's not me, and I find it offensive she says that." MSNBC has a woman on a few minutes ago that was saying just that. "I'm not deplorable because I disagree with Hillary Clinton, and think that we need stronger immigration and stronger law enforcement etc"
Black Mamba
Member
It will all depend how they go about this. But I think it's weird to think about 2020 because, assuming you don't put up a piece of shit like Trump, most of what matters is the economy and some foreign policy and that's way too far out to project right now.
If somehow the Dems capture the House this election, things could be very good for her in 2020.
Weren't those emails from a Bernie supporter to Podesta?
Hooligan69
Member
Shao Kahn on the Lawn
Member
They'll cherry pick some polls that have them close and jerk themselves off about how it was premature to count Trump out.
It's not that naive. First, losing three elections in a row force them to admit they can't just keep a Democratic president from getting legislation passed and hope the next elections turns their way, especially after Trump.
And even Steve King from Iowa admitted off the cuff that he could work with Hillary.
Although, yeah, all this might be a tad naive...
nature boy
Member
66.5 million? Dopey.
Don't forget the nuclear. Russia has the best nuclear, more modern nuclear. And cyber of course.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Describing Romney as the 'moderate' is pretty misleading since he basically won the nomination by attacking Perry on immigration from the right. Even Romney knew that he had to throw the base a huge bone that hurt him badly in the general.
banefirelord
Banned
Punchline was worth the google.
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